Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[kwilco]

3 hours ago, rott said:

To the snidey mouth one who knows everything, how is herd immunity by vaccine now.? 

And what level of vaccination is now required to achieve it.?

70%

80%

90%

91%

 

If only there were more people about who know everything. 

Sorry if you feel stupid.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/16/2021 at 10:34 PM, swissie said:

I wrote this at a time when I had reason to believe that the global vaccination campaighn would be a success. Instead it turned into a debacle.

Based on what? IMO it was always going to fail, if only because no way can vaccinate 8 billion ( and rising ) people when most of them live in poor countries.

Besides, when did governments ever do anything right?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 6/12/2021 at 12:56 PM, adammike said:

But there is no vaccine that stops people getting Covid! And I speak from experience,I got Covid after my first jab.Ive now had the second one.The vaccinations work at minimizing the symptoms and keeping hospitals and health service workers from total collapse but they don't give immunity.Nobodys safe untill everybody is safe.

Everybody including every person on the planet, or just the ones in rich countries? Good luck with the former, and the second only works if they keep out all those illegal immigrants.

[kwilco]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Based on what? IMO it was always going to fail, if only because no way can vaccinate 8 billion ( and rising ) people when most of them live in poor countries.

Besides, when did governments ever do anything right?

 

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Based on what? IMO it was always going to fail, if only because no way can vaccinate 8 billion ( and rising ) people when most of them live in poor countries.

Besides, when did governments ever do anything right?

But worldwide  mass vaccinations have worked before! 

Small pox is totally eradicated and  other diseases are well under control...notably measles mumps rubella, polio....

Edited August 18, 2021 by kwilco

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, kwilco said:

 

But worldwide  mass vaccinations have worked before! 

Small pox is totally eradicated and  other diseases are well under control...notably measles mumps rubella, polio....

World population was considerably less when smallpox was eradicated.

Increasing so fast now what hope of keeping up?

Also, western countries were richer. All broke now, and having to print money.

 

AND, smallpox was a one time vaccination and worked, but seems that corona is going to require multiple jabs and perhaps yearly, like flu, and doesn't seem to work very well anyway.

Edited August 18, 2021 by thaibeachlovers

[GrandPapillon]

are we going to end up like the Incas? broke and riddled with diseases until our civilization collapse? ????

[thaibeachlovers]

38 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

are we going to end up like the Incas? broke and riddled with diseases until our civilization collapse? ????

Probably.

 

Every civilization rots from within and IMO western civilization is too rotten to survive much longer.

[CartagenaWarlock]

On 6/3/2021 at 9:25 AM, swissie said:

When everybody (including his uncle) proclaims that the "end is near", historically this was always a good time to buy and a very bad time to sell. Applicable to Stocks/Commodities/Real Estate and every other item that is traded within a "market-economy". Especially when a wave of "forced-liquidations" is in progress, this is usually a reliable sighn that a "market-bottom" is being established. Seems to be the case in Pattaya.

US median houses price have reached record level and Pattaya looks like post-apocalyptic village. Now that the malls are also semi closed, I don't see any future for Pattaya by next year. 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

US median houses price have reached record level and Pattaya looks like post-apocalyptic village. Now that the malls are also semi closed, I don't see any future for Pattaya by next year. 

IMO Pattaya will have a future, but it may not resemble what was before.

Never been to Snooky, but I understand the Chinese took it over and ruined it, so perhaps that is to be Pattaya's fate.

Perhaps those farangs wanting to buy condos in Pattaya should consider if that's where they want to be in that event.

[Rimmer]

Conspiracy troll post and a couple of replies removed

[HashBrownHarry]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO Pattaya will have a future, but it may not resemble what was before.

Never been to Snooky, but I understand the Chinese took it over and ruined it, so perhaps that is to be Pattaya's fate.

Perhaps those farangs wanting to buy condos in Pattaya should consider if that's where they want to be in that event.

Valid point, great time to be buying in Pattaya if that's where you want to live.

 

 

[JustAnotherHun]

Thailand and Pattaya will change and not in a way we would like to. Covid did not start, it just strengthens the process.

China and India are close neighbors with a fast growing middle class. For Thailand it is not important from where the tourist money comes. They don't need us anymore.

Less western customers means less western focussed business means less western tourists means..... - a vicious circle.

[MrJ2U]

If you have the cash go for it.

 

 

[Leaver]

On 8/19/2021 at 3:35 PM, HashBrownHarry said:

Valid point, great time to be buying in Pattaya if that's where you want to live.

 

 

 

No one knows what Pattaya will look like, post covid.  

 

Buy in now, and you may be buying into a place that you don't want to live in.  

[HashBrownHarry]

6 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

No one knows what Pattaya will look like, post covid.  

 

Buy in now, and you may be buying into a place that you don't want to live in.  

C'mon, it's not gonna be like this forever....is it?

[Espanol]

6 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:

C'mon, it's not gonna be like this forever....is it?

 

Neo-Pattaya can be a quite different place where we don't want to live anymore

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/pattaya-mayor-confirms-international-consortium-is-funding-citys-rejig-368411

 

 

A destroyed boardwalk

 

 

 

 

No shadow to walk

 

 

 

 

No fun and night life

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by Espanol

[Leaver]

8 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:

C'mon, it's not gonna be like this forever....is it?

 

As another member alluded to, if the Chinese buy in here, big time, like they did in Sihanoukville, westerners will not want to live in Pattaya. 

 

I have been to Sihanoukville a few times.  The last time I was there, only a handful of westerners remained.  Most moved down the coast and set up shop in Kampot.  

 

Casinos wouldn't even have to play a part for this to happen here. 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2021 by Leaver

[kinyara]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

As another member alluded to, if the Chinese buy in here, big time, like they did in Sihanoukville, westerners will not want to live in Pattaya. 

 

I have been to Sihanoukville a few times.  The last time I was there, only a handful of westerners remained.  Most moved down the coast and set up shop in Kampot.  

 

Casinos wouldn't even have to play a part for this to happen here. 

 

 

 

I think a big part of the problem for the Westerners in Sihanoukville was as mainly renters the demand for property was so great they were priced out, so they didn't really have a choice even if they wanted to stay. That's the risk of renting, no long-term security when market forces go against you, and they didn't see it coming before it was too late.

 

If you are happy to own here long-term, in the quiet times like now you get the benefit of a more peaceful less polluted environment. If like you suggest the Chinese buy in big time and you don't like it you can cash in on the back of rising prices and move somewhere more suitable.  That's always been my view, long term Pattaya was a good bet and with all the mega infrastructure projects planned or in progress in the region as part of the government plan I don't see that changing.  This region is already a developed industrial and tourism area unlike Sihanoukville which was pretty much a blank canvas for the Chinese. The current gloom and doom, let's not forget being experienced worldwide not just here, may last a few years but the future development path isn't going to change. 

 

I was looking at the far end of Jomtien beach yesterday where they have started the beach expansion work, if I was a betting man I'd place my money on that being the prime area that Chinese investors/developers could target. No idea who owns all the land but there are huge prime tracts undeveloped and even the areas at the front are just a few buildings that could be bulldozed in the blink of an eye. 

 

Someone already posted an article about one major Thai player buying in already who sees the future potential in that location.  Not a massive amount of empty space in Central or North Pattaya that would allow the landscape to change to the extent Sihanoukville did, I don't think it's really that valid a comparison..

 

 

[Leaver]

9 minutes ago, kinyara said:

I think a big part of the problem for the Westerners in Sihanoukville was as mainly renters the demand for property was so great they were priced out, so they didn't really have a choice even if they wanted to stay. That's the risk of renting, no long-term security when market forces go against you, and they didn't see it coming before it was too late.

 

 

Should town planning exist, I would agree, but we know it doesn't in Sihanoukville, nor does it in Pattaya. 

 

I have absolutely no doubt that the westerners that rented in Sihanoukville were very glad they did, otherwise, they would be stuck living in a Chinese Las Vegas.

 

I have seen the destruction there, and they were still building.  When were you last there?

 

14 minutes ago, kinyara said:

If like you suggest the Chinese buy in big time and you don't like it you can cash in on the back of rising prices and move somewhere more suitable. 

 

You assume the Chinese will be buying condo's to live in.  I never suggest that would be the case.  

 

I'm suggesting they may buy all the commercial premises.  Eg.  hotels, shops, guest houses, bars etc.  

 

Expats continuing to live in Pattaya will be living in a Chinatown, similar to Sihanoukville, minus the casinos, at this stage.  

 

Commercial premises can shape an area, not just the nationality of the local residents, particularly in a tourist area, such as Pattaya.    

 

16 minutes ago, kinyara said:

That's always been my view, long term Pattaya was a good bet and with all the mega infrastructure projects planned or in progress in the region as part of the government plan I don't see that changing. 

Most elderly expats wished to see out their days here in what they knew to be Pattaya when they bought in.  That could change, if the Chinese decide Pattaya is ripe for the picking.  

 

23 minutes ago, kinyara said:

This region is already a developed industrial and tourism area unlike Sihanoukville which was pretty much a blank canvas for the Chinese.

 

Which makes it more attractive to them, does it not?  Especially now it's all vacant and up for sale at rock bottom covid prices.

 

25 minutes ago, kinyara said:

I was looking at the far end of Jomtien beach yesterday where they have started the beach expansion work, if I was a betting man I'd place my money on that being the prime area that Chinese investors/developers could target. No idea who owns all the land but there are huge prime tracts undeveloped and even the areas at the front are just a few buildings that could be bulldozed in the blink of an eye. 

Why would they want to develop land, when they can buy whole hotels that are broke and for sale.  They are ready to go, as soon as covid ends, and in prime locations.  

 

26 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Someone already posted an article about one major Thai player buying in already who sees the future potential in that location.  Not a massive amount of empty space in Central or North Pattaya that would allow the landscape to change to the extent Sihanoukville did, I don't think it's really that valid a comparison..

 

Sihanoukville had over 70 legal casinos, and countless illegal casinos when I was last there.  

 

Whilst I think it's only a matter of time before Thailand allows casinos, I am not suggesting Pattaya will have 30 or 40 casinos and become a gambling city for Chinese. 

 

What I am suggesting is it's entirely possible that basically a bigger version on the "zero baht tourist" model that we have heard of in the past may eventuate.  

 

The Chinese buy up distressed assets like no tomorrow.  They buy hotels, big and small, bars, guest houses, shops, buses, boats etc etc.  Then, once they own pretty much all tourism infrastructure here, which they acquire at rock bottom covid prices, then the millions of Chinese tourists start to fly in for holidays on a level we have not seen here before.  

 

Now, the question for western expats is, would you still like to live in Pattaya should this happen, and if you don't, what's your property worth if it happens?

 

Also, why would you buy a property now, with the uncertainty this could happen?     

 

[kinyara]

^ Too many long-term hypotheticals to be concerned about. I doubt many of the older expats will still be above ground if the unlikely extreme picture you present comes to pass.  

 

Shouldn't you be a bit more concerned about your Plan B given Vietnam's visa crackdown ? Interesting read on the Vietnam section of the forum,  although I'd a;lready watched several YouTubes from Western relocation agents decrying the Vietnam government's actions. Hope nobody that left Thailand thinking it offered a visa workaround got caught out in the hype.

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, kinyara said:

Too many long-term hypotheticals to be concerned about. I doubt many of the older expats will still be above ground if the unlikely extreme picture you present comes to pass.  

Is 12 months from now "long term?"  

 

1 hour ago, kinyara said:

Shouldn't you be a bit more concerned about your Plan B given Vietnam's visa crackdown ?

 

Not at this stage.  Just like Thailand, Vietnam likes to leave some back door methods for those willing to pay agents.  

 

 

[kinyara]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

Is 12 months from now "long term?"  

 

 

Not at this stage.  Just like Thailand, Vietnam likes to leave some back door methods for those willing to pay agents.  

 

 

I'm obviously glad, albeit a bit surprised,  that you've so quickly performed  a  u-turn and revised your timescales for Pattaya's ability to attract widescale investment to a bullish 12 months from your previously gloomy outlook of several years. Reassuring from your normally downbeat outlook. The Chinese of course were already buying residential property in Pattaya pre-Covid, they were the biggest single market in the condo sector. Seems strange you think residential property that was previously so attractive to them would be the only asset they choose to ignore in your bullish 12 month reassessment. Their motives for investment pre and post covid are neither here nor there, the point is they were doing it pre and are just as likely to do it post, I'm just not as upbeat as you on the timescales, but that's a good thing as far as my own mid-term outlook is concerned. 

 

I'd suggest it's unwise to ignore the reality of what is actually happening now in Vietnam visa wise, rather than a wishful thinking hypothetical. I thought one of the attractions of Vietnam was they didn't operate like the Thais, unfortunately that currently seems to be the case but not in a good way as they close the backdoor methods thousands thought were sustainable. How wrong they were. 

 

[kwilco]

Before Covid, about 30% of visitors to Thailand were Chinese.

A post Covid touridt industry will undoubtedly contain new restrictions to cope with ovid or any threat of pandemic.

How will this affect Iinvestments for long term immigrants in Pattaya? I think it will be the Chinese who have the capital, organisation and acceptance of regulation that will be the number one buyers.

Covid is leaving many gaps as businesses bail out and it will be those with the money who fill the gaps..... I would think the Chinese are best placed to eize the opportunity to rapidly move in.

[HashBrownHarry]

13 hours ago, Leaver said:

Is 12 months from now "long term?" 

What do you suggest may happen in 12 months?

 

You should know that nothing happens in 12 months in Thailand....

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, kinyara said:

I'm obviously glad, albeit a bit surprised,  that you've so quickly performed  a  u-turn and revised your timescales for Pattaya's ability to attract widescale investment to a bullish 12 months from your previously gloomy outlook of several years.

Allow me to clarify. 

 

In my opinion, the borders will be open in the next 12 months.  For Pattaya to get back to pre covid tourism, and that includes many of the vacant premises here having tenants again, in my opinion, it will be 5 years or more after the borders open, so that's from the end of covid in Thailand, not from March 2020.

 

I can not be clearer than this, and there certainly has been no "u-turn" from me.  

 

 

10 hours ago, kinyara said:

The Chinese of course were already buying residential property in Pattaya pre-Covid, they were the biggest single market in the condo sector.

The point I was trying to make is, if the Chinese buy up, big time, distressed commercial leases / property, then large parts of Pattaya MAY become like Sihanoukville.  

 

I don't care if some Chinese buy condo's in my block.  I care if I can't find a bar / restaurant catering to westerners, because Pattaya has become Chinatown.  If that happens, Pattaya may as well be Sihanoukville, minus the casinos.   That said, could you imagine if you bought a condo at The Base, only to find it's become an AirBnb hotel for Chinese?  

 

Can you see how if the Chinese take over the majority of commercial premises here, it will effect property prices?  I have given the example of the disappearing Sunday roast before.  

 

Perhaps expats will all be socializing on the dark side if this happens.  

 

This buy up, or "widescale investment" could happen soon after borders have opened.  Perhaps this is where there is the misunderstanding.  The Chinese businessmen may be among the first to Pattaya in order to buy cheap hotels, guest houses, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, boats, buses etc.  

 

 

10 hours ago, kinyara said:

I'd suggest it's unwise to ignore the reality of what is actually happening now in Vietnam visa wise

 

From speaking to friends in Vietnam, two of whom are ex Thailand expats, the Vietnamese government cleared the country of people continuing to reside in Vietnam on covid extensions.  Thailand did the same. 

 

They couldn't differentiate between covid extenders moving to other visas through agents, and people who were already on visas from agents, so they cleared the lot of them. 

 

I am quite sure, post covid, things will return as they were.  In any case, I have a visa plan for Vietnam.   I am confident I can reside there, legally, should I wish to do so in the future, and under the current visa laws.  

 

 

Edited August 21, 2021 by Leaver

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, HashBrownHarry said:

What do you suggest may happen in 12 months?

 

The borders will open.  

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

The borders will open.  

Depends what that actually means.

If you think unrestricted access to Thailand for everyone...I doubt it.

Vaccine passports or grading of countries will apply.... covid will still be about in the world.... and lord knows what variants will have popped up by then. There's already stats of vacs losing there efficacy. 

So one factor is what will the outside world be like. 

The other factor will be Thailand....what product will they have on offer? Will it be attractive enough to bring back tourist money  on the sane levels as before?

 

I'm guessing no...not straight away or even ever.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:26 PM, Espanol said:

 

A destroyed boardwalk

 

Wouldn't it be great if a massive rainstorm swept it all away just as it was almost complete?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:26 PM, Espanol said:

 

No shadow to walk

"Improvements"

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, kwilco said:

Depends what that actually means.

If you think unrestricted access to Thailand for everyone...I doubt it.

Vaccine passports or grading of countries will apply.... covid will still be about in the world.... and lord knows what variants will have popped up by then. There's already stats of vacs losing there efficacy. 

So one factor is what will the outside world be like. 

The other factor will be Thailand....what product will they have on offer? Will it be attractive enough to bring back tourist money  on the sane levels as before?

 

I'm guessing no...not straight away or even ever.

IMO there will always be tourists in LOS, they just may not be westerners.