Thailand Risks Becoming the Next Seychelles as Tourists Return

[webfact]

A motorcyclist rides along a deserted road in Phuket, earlier in June. 

Photographer: Luke Duggleby/Bloomberg

 

By Randy Thanthong-Knight

 

● Tourism-reliant nations face economic pressure as cases rise

● Influx of travelers could bring a new wave of infections

 

Less than 100 days before it plans to throw open its borders to international visitors, Thailand is in the grip of a worsening Covid outbreak and a sluggish vaccine rollout.

 

It’s a position familiar to other travel-reliant countries facing the unenviable task of rescuing crucial tourism industries decimated by 18 months of pandemic while guarding against the risk that an influx of international travelers could inflame the spread of the virus.

 

That’s been the case in the Maldives and Seychelles, tropical-island paradises that have seen record surges in infections since opening their borders despite having vaccinated about 70% of their populations. In contrast, at current rates it will take Thailand almost a year to reach that level.

 

Full story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-14/thai-reopening-bid-shows-asia-holiday-spots-are-out-of-choices

 

-- © Copyright Bloomberg 2021-07-16

 

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[SnowyWiez]

Biggest concern is making sure the healthcare system can cope with the case load. Vaccination will never stop the spread completely as with any flu. It does seem to reduce the severity and hospitalizations from the infected. As Thailand didn't have large waves the first few times around suspect this one will be the biggest (Delta/Lack of natural immunity). Reuters was reporting Thailand AZ may delay delivery of 61M doses to other countries over next 5 months. Combined with Sinovac/Pharm possible to hit the 50-70% by end of year if true. 

So the million baht question is if soft opening starts Oct as planned will the current health system have enough resources to sustain? My guess is yes as this current wave is probably going to be the worst of it. Think I'm more worried on getting through the next 3 months but even with all the drama of the sandbox, it's at least a data point and a step in the right direction as the rest of the world is opening up. 

[ezzra]

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

[sezze]

10 minutes ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

A test is a momentum . So 72h leaves 3d window of infection positive . Many people might see family or friends in the days before travel , this creates a good chance of being infected since then they do what you should avoid aka meeting other people .

[sezze]

39 minutes ago, SnowyWiez said:

Biggest concern is making sure the healthcare system can cope with the case load. Vaccination will never stop the spread completely as with any flu. It does seem to reduce the severity and hospitalizations from the infected. As Thailand didn't have large waves the first few times around suspect this one will be the biggest (Delta/Lack of natural immunity). Reuters was reporting Thailand AZ may delay delivery of 61M doses to other countries over next 5 months. Combined with Sinovac/Pharm possible to hit the 50-70% by end of year if true. 

So the million baht question is if soft opening starts Oct as planned will the current health system have enough resources to sustain? My guess is yes as this current wave is probably going to be the worst of it. Think I'm more worried on getting through the next 3 months but even with all the drama of the sandbox, it's at least a data point and a step in the right direction as the rest of the world is opening up. 

AZ had this problem all the time in Europe , never delivering what they promised .

About the opening in 100d , they might open , but i do not see them able to turn around the spread , since known already how long it takes to go to low lvl spread . 2nd , i do not think many will come . 3th , what do they mean with opening , like the "sandbox" ? see nr2 . And least but not least nr4 vaccination will not be done enough to get to safe lvl , and in the case of Sinovac , simply not working good enough .

I hope they can turn the things around , but i highly doubt they will attract many people . It just will be too much hassle for 95% of the tourists . If you cut the fun out of Thailand , then there are far better and safer places to go .

[meechai]

28 minutes ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

What you don't get is...A Vaccine is in no way an Immunization

You are still able to be infected after a vaccination & this is something most not just you do not understand

 

[uli65]

33 minutes ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

I can tell you why, the tests are garbadge and the vaccine also

[sezze]

14 minutes ago, uli65 said:

I can tell you why, the tests are garbadge and the vaccine also

No they aren't , is a alcohol analyzer a bad test since it detects right now if you got alcohol in your blood and not in 1h ? Or also in very rare cases detect fake alcohol due to some people creating aceton in their bloodstream at some moments ? It doesn't make the test bad , it is a test at a certain moment.

About the vaccines , results of it are shown right now in Europe , with heavy rising numbers but nearly no hospital admissions or deaths . HUUUGE change from before , since now the infection number is nothing more then that . Still a significant number is not fully protected and some refused vaccination , so there is still a risk of getting bad again , but so far , the numbers are not leading at all to much more hospital visits , so it is no problem . Vaccines saved many lives in the past , and is doing it right now also .

[Captain Monday]

51 minutes ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

• PCR testing, can detect extremely low levels, or false positives.
• fake foreign  tests, fake vaccine certificates? Digital Health passports yet to be launched..
• un-vaccinated children
• SINOVAC, appears to have lower immunity profile of shorter duration

Then we have the continuing "breakthrough" cases, as been said thousands of times by the "shut the country forever brigade". 6 cases out of near 5000, now isolated and treated if necessary. A success.

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

That’s been the case in the Maldives and Seychelles, tropical-island paradises that have seen record surges in infections since opening their borders despite having vaccinated about 70% of their populations. In contrast, at current rates it will take Thailand almost a year to reach that level.

Thus why they need to stop, re-asses and put a cork in the bottle that hold the soft opening plans in 100 days, at least until they get a handle on this.  Start printing Baht and start stimulating the economy, but then that will not bee seen by the top as being beneficial to them in anyway as the baht drops lower, which it is already slipping downward. Money is the reason they need to open, they can not take care of the country because of their fiscal missteps in procuring Tanks, Subs, Planes, Building high speed rail, and then spending billions only on one main vaccine while spending many many more in an attempt with the home made brew.  If they could not see this coming 6,8,10 months ago then these folks are truly blind and believe their own BS they spew, much like another OP running now on the Sandbox where they believe it has been successful...... 

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

The vaccines do not stop you from becoming infected, they are designed to lessen the impact and the chance of being seriously infected with the disease and hospitalized, much like the flu vaccine does for those that take it every year.

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

Well the vaccination does not prevent you catching Covid, but gives you antibodies to fight it off better, ie you don't get very sick. There are fake test certificates and 3 days to get infected before arriving in Phuket..... same has been happening for Thai ASQ and in Australia.

It indicates how prevalent and contagious this virus is

[clivebaxter]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

cos it can take up to 2 weeks for the virus to trigger a test, in that 3 days the test becomes positive

[smedly]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

there is only one or two that have failed a test on arrival the rest have failed tests after having been here for many days - I have asked the question many times - if they didn't bring it with them where did they get infected - very likely in Phuket when mixing with the locals - there is no other explanation, the Phuket administration will not want to publish this for obvious reasons - exposing the truth would raise some very serious questions about community infection in Phuket

 

we can however read between the lines with certain actions being implimented recenty - like school closures and recent very strict controls on entry over land with the army involved - in my opinion they have a very serious problem that they are hiding - COVID is rampant in Phuket

[rumak]

i'll bet a lot of people never knew the meaning of deep throat nose till they had a PCR test done.

 

Me?  I just keep my nose out of such alien invasions

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, rumak said:

i'll bet a lot of people never knew the meaning of deep throat nose till they had a PCR test done.

 

Me?  I just keep my nose out of such alien invasions

It was hell on Wednesday to get it shoved up the nose and into the throat. Waiting our results still.

[nkg]

1 hour ago, uli65 said:

I can tell you why, the tests are garbadge and the vaccine also

 

Well done. Spend enough time listening to idiots, you get to join their club.

[rumak]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

It was hell on Wednesday to get it shoved up the nose and into the throat. Waiting our results still.

you know the Thai's have to shove harder to get to the end of those big Farang noses  !

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, sezze said:

AZ had this problem all the time in Europe , never delivering what they promised .

They delivered money into their pockets which is the promise they made to their shareholders!Did you believe all the sales hype of the sales staff did you?When will people learn not to trust the sales hype?

[BE88]

 

The problem as for Phuket and if there is one that has a negative result on your plane you have to do a quarantine at the hotel and forget your dream holidays so I doubt that many tourists are attracted to the land of smile.

[nkg]

7 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

They delivered money into their pockets which is the promise they made to their shareholders!Did you believe all the sales hype of the sales staff did you?When will people learn not to trust the sales hype?

 

Yeah, they were coining the profits at $3 a dose, mr clever.

[The Farang]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

I don't get one thing, (well, among others) these tourists are suppose to be fully vaccinated and a negative PCR test 72 hours prior to departure, so how come several of them are testing positive when the arrive here? that i'd like to know...

The PCR test only has to be done 72 hrs prior.  Any time in between they can get it.

[LosLobo]

59 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The vaccines do not stop you from becoming infected, they are designed to lessen the impact and the chance of being seriously infected with the disease and hospitalized, much like the flu vaccine does for those that take it every year.

Vaccines can stop you from becoming infected!

 

"Vaccines provide at least some protection from infection and transmission, but not as much as the protection they provide against serious illness and death."

 

Vaccine efficacy, effectiveness and protection (who.int)

[FarFlungFalang]

14 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

Yeah, they were coining the profits at $3 a dose, mr clever.

At 10 cents per dose profit times 2 billion doses would be 200 million dollars profit, adds up pretty quick.Of course Pharma companies are well known for their compassion and generosity for profit making.They say vaccines are the way out of this pandemic, but for whom?It certainly doesn't appear to be the way out for the general public who will be forking out for all those booster shots now being pushed in the news media advertising campaign.

[DrJack54]

Today 9692

Die 67

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Today 9692

Die 67

Looks like we won't be getting to 10,000 cases until the end of the year after all just like they said!

[DrJack54]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Looks like we won't be getting to 10,000 cases until the end of the year after all just like they said!

Song from Thin Lizzy springs to mind.

...."Don't believe a Word" 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Song from Thin Lizzy springs to mind.

...."Don't believe a Word" 

Well the boys are back in town and they are running the show.Got to see them live in Newcastle.Someone threw a thong onto the stage and Phil threw it back then about 1000 thongs flew onto the stage,brilliant!

[no deal]

1 hour ago, sezze said:

No they aren't , is a alcohol analyzer a bad test since it detects right now if you got alcohol in your blood and not in 1h ? Or also in very rare cases detect fake alcohol due to some people creating aceton in their bloodstream at some moments ? It doesn't make the test bad , it is a test at a certain moment.

About the vaccines , results of it are shown right now in Europe , with heavy rising numbers but nearly no hospital admissions or deaths . HUUUGE change from before , since now the infection number is nothing more then that . Still a significant number is not fully protected and some refused vaccination , so there is still a risk of getting bad again , but so far , the numbers are not leading at all to much more hospital visits , so it is no problem . Vaccines saved many lives in the past , and is doing it right now also .

yes but there is no vaccin i paye 3500 tb for my thai wife to get a moderna vaccin ,because the chines vaccin is not good, she don't know when she is going to get maybe by the end of the year...and people are going to die!

[NCC1701A]