Popular Post snoop1130 Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 A near-empty Patong Beach in Phuket, on July 19. Photographer: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg Thailand will likely be the worst economic performer in Southeast Asia this year, with economists continuing to slash the country’s growth forecast amid surging Covid-19 infections, mounting political tensions and fading hopes for a tourism revival. The Finance Ministry on Thursday cut its 2021 gross domestic product forecast to 1.3% growth, from the 2.3% it expected in April. With new Covid infections and deaths continually breaking records since the latest surge began in April, some economists are flagging the possibility of a technical recession in the second half of the year -- or even a second straight annual contraction, something the country hasn’t seen since the Asian Financial Crisis more than two decades ago. Full Story: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-28/thailand-risks-first-double-dip-recession-since-1998-asia-crisis -- © Copyright Bloomberg 2021-07-29 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates 7 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RotBenz8888 Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Sorry Thai people, but I'd really love an economic meltdown to make things cheaper, in particular the overvalued condos in Bkk. 30 1 7 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Orinoco Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 I care as much as they care about me. !!!!!!!!!! LOL 51 2 16 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Nojohndoe Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Why would anyone find satisfaction from the possible demise of the economic status of a country and the impact on the vast majority who are already mainly far from comfortable wealth? 42 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post AnotherFarang8 Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 We don’t need economy any more. People can exist as souls. Physical body life is so overrated. 5 5 1 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chalawaan Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 C'mon! a double dip recession is for wimps! Let's push the boat out, nothing less than a Triple Dip Depression, with a side of out of control disease! Yeah baby! Burn like you mean it! 6 1 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chalawaan Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 43 minutes ago, Orinoco said: I care as much as they care about me. !!!!!!!!!! LOL Word bruh! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post dinsdale Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Mmmmm? Let me think. "What will be will be" and "Some risks must be taken". He's finished. What fool will take his place is the next thing. As I've said before Thailand is due for another coup d'etat. I used to think that Prayut would put his uniform back on but he won't have the backing. Military takes over. Wuhan style lockdown. Military guarantees democratic elections and yes folks it's Groundhog Day. I think this is a possiblity. When this may happen like the rest of my post is only conjecture but it has to be on the cards. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post LarryLEB Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 53 minutes ago, Orinoco said: I care as much as they care about me. !!!!!!!!!! LOL I presume that your tiny violin is playing Hearts and Flowers... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theoldgit Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Offensive troll post removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post khunpa Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Clearly The Finance Ministry did not consult TAT before coming up with their numbers. Anyway, the dug the hole themselves. Only sad that this will not affect the Elite, but only make them richer. 25 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Some posts using trolling images and the replies have been removed. A grammar police post and the replies have been removed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HiSoLowSoNoSo Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, khunpa said: Clearly The Finance Ministry did not consult TAT before coming up with their numbers. Anyway, the dug the hole themselves. Only sad that this will not affect the Elite, but only make them richer. At the end this will affect the elite, people got less cash now to spend in the elite owned seven-elevens, Big C's, Centrals etc. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post wensiensheng Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, HiSoLowSoNoSo said: At the end this will affect the elite, people got less cash now to spend in the elite owned seven-elevens, Big C's, Centrals etc. Yes, and yet, no. it’s true, less cash to spend will cause some of the rich to suffer reduced cash flow, as people have less cash to spend. King Power without tourists spending, Central as an up market shopping mall, are classic examples. on the other hand, these people have deep pockets. As prices fall, they have the opportunity to acquire good assets cheaply. So in the long run, given reasonable business acumen, they will come out richer. the people who will really suffer are those who are highly leveraged and suffer reduced cash flow. The banks will help them out as much as they can because they won’t want a bad debt on their hands, but some will go to the wall. the little guy will suffer badly. 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanuk711 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, chalawaan said: How will a falling Baht hurt poor Thais? It's a serious question. A weak baht is the one solid thing that could encourage tourism back. And more generous spending in the grey economy. Only rich Thais who go abroad and do business overseas get hurt. I think we would all like the Baht to drop a little chaiswaan--but what seems to hoped for by some of the posters is a 97 type crash, which was disastrous for the country. Imports (Oil etc) would rise of course and along with it anything manufactured for the home market, but what is not factored in is the price of the goods sold at home, they also rise. Lets say we are in 97 with a 50% reduction of the baht--and you are a Rice buyer--the stable diet of Thai's, with the Baht crash the Rice you sold overseas at X-baht you can now get x+1 baht, (50% more) so you either sell all your rice overseas or put the home price up to X+1 baht. Sure it would maybe attract more tourist--but that really isn't the runs the Thai economy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanuk711 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, HiSoLowSoNoSo said: At the end this will affect the elite, people got less cash now to spend in the elite owned seven-elevens, Big C's, Centrals etc. To put it basically HiSoLowNoSo----- people can buy less to eat.......and thats a real good thing.....huh..? ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ThailandRyan Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Will the nation become insolvent and have to use the USD cash reserves to buy back some baht to help keep the inflation at a dull roar. However if the cash reserves start to run low the central bank will be possibly forced to devalue its currency. Thus forward-looking investors should plan for that event today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post hotandsticky Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said: Will the nation become insolvent and have to use the USD cash reserves to buy back some baht to help keep the inflation at a dull roar. However if the cash reserves start to run low the central bank will be possibly forced to devalue its currency. Thus forward-looking investors should plan for that event today. Forward looking investors were planning for that event months ago. Some of the smarter ones since 2008. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post chalawaan Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, sanuk711 said: I think we would all like the Baht to drop a little chaiswaan--but what seems to hoped for by some of the posters is a 97 type crash, which was disastrous for the country. Imports (Oil etc) would rise of course and along with it anything manufactured for the home market, but what is not factored in is the price of the goods sold at home, they also rise. Lets say we are in 97 with a 50% reduction of the baht--and you are a Rice buyer--the stable diet of Thai's, with the Baht crash the Rice you sold overseas at X-baht you can now get x+1 baht, (50% more) so you either sell all your rice overseas or put the home price up to X+1 baht. Sure it would maybe attract more tourist--but that really isn't the runs the Thai economy. Ok, some fair points there, but hard as it is to contemplate, nothing changes without pain, and blood, and death. It's the human condition. We ordinary people, expats, could fall foul of extreme dysfunction in Thai society. My enduring fear is that if the wheels come off, poor Thais will lump us in with their Thai oppressors, sure, we're "wealthy" but not even close to the Salim, and most of us I hope, have learned, as part of our own democracies, that absolute power for one group leads to great turmoil and human suffering for everyone else, eg: pre-revolutionary France. However, we usually emerge better people, with better societies, when these extreme imbalances are ironed out. And in these epic struggles, people die in sometimes vast numbers, when these imbalances are challenged. Velvet revolutions are a rare beast indeed. I think everyone seriously underestimates how much tourism impacts Thailand, particularly at a grassroots level. Every worker we meet as tourists, is a person who relies almost solely on the industry, and tips etc. to live a dignified life. I recall a conservative estimate of tourism income is 25% of the economy With Thailand, we will likely never know, but as a foreigner here, I use services that would likely not even exist if we all disappeared overnight. Don't forget the ripple effect of all; thus, a tuk tuk driver going bust could well eventually impact the BoT bottom line, just because what he can't afford, ripples out and out to an eventual significant amount of cash. I think globally, it's never been about what "trickles down", but what gets pushed "up" the food chain. that drives wealth. I do not wish suffering on ordinary Thais, but I do pragmatically wish they hurt enough to turn on these salim scumbags who have preyed on them throughout their history. Edited July 29, 2021 by chalawaan 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Maha Sarakham Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, chalawaan said: I think everyone seriously underestimates how much tourism impacts Thailand, particularly at a grassroots level. Every worker we meet as tourists, is a person who relies almost solely on the industry, and tips etc. to live a dignified life. I recall a conservative estimate of tourism income is 25% of the economy. So true, I'm actually blown away at how minimal the domestic tourism sector managed to support the industry. It is clear that international tourism was the lifeblood of more 'unofficial' jobs that weren't in the official recognized tally. Street food vendors, night life workers, guest house owners, and everyone in between - none of those people are accounted for in officially registered figures. Thailand needs tourism, it has relied on it for far too long with a relatively uneducated mass of people that used it to support themselves and their families lifestyles. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sammieuk1 Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 Oh dear General what are you going to do? borrow or run ???? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Enzian Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 I often got questioned about why I put my 800,000 baht equivalent (for Non-O renewal) in a dollar denominated account and not in a baht account. Actually at the time I did it because I thought that roughly dollar/30 was not a very good deal. When the pandemic started I said that if the baht got a notch above dollar/32.5 (it did briefly in 2020 but I missed that) I would convert my dollars. But now: 1)the baht may fall much further, and 2) I may well not want to use Thailand as my base for the next few years, or ever again. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RichardColeman Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 6 hours ago, chalawaan said: Let's push the boat out, nothing less than a Triple Dip Depression, I think if Thailand does not open up fully in the next 9 months, I think you'll get your wish. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mrmicbkktxl Posted July 29, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 29, 2021 12 hours ago, Nojohndoe said: Why would anyone find satisfaction from the possible demise of the economic status of a country and the impact on the vast majority who are already mainly far from comfortable wealth? Maybe some people think it's highly reserved.By the way I thought Thailand has an enormous foreign reserve,maybe time to touch that unless the generals pocketed it already 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Nojohndoe Posted July 30, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, mrmicbkktxl said: Maybe some people think it's highly reserved.By the way I thought Thailand has an enormous foreign reserve,maybe time to touch that unless the generals pocketed it already Little of whatever any Thai Government Holds or claims to hold is unlikely to be utilized for anything other than the protection of the extremely wealthy. The majority must sink or swim even in the best of times which now a fading dream. The internal economy is being credit squeezed mercilessly which eventually could lead to the rich elite reducing the "peasants" to slave status given the bizzare disparity in wealth. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BestB Posted July 30, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2021 As Anutin said , all going according to a plan. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post southcoast Posted July 30, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2021 10 hours ago, sammieuk1 said: Oh dear General what are you going to do? borrow or run ???? Let’s hope he Runs along with all his other monkeys 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post malibukid Posted July 30, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2021 (edited) maybe sleeping giant wake up now Edited July 30, 2021 by malibukid 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post malibukid Posted July 30, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 hour ago, mrmicbkktxl said: Maybe some people think it's highly reserved.By the way I thought Thailand has an enormous foreign reserve,maybe time to touch that unless the generals pocketed it already because this will motivate them to get off their backsides and take action. it's the only thing that Thai people care about. money. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malibukid Posted July 30, 2021 Share Posted July 30, 2021 11 hours ago, chalawaan said: Ok, some fair points there, but hard as it is to contemplate, nothing changes without pain, and blood, and death. It's the human condition. We ordinary people, expats, could fall foul of extreme dysfunction in Thai society. My enduring fear is that if the wheels come off, poor Thais will lump us in with their Thai oppressors, sure, we're "wealthy" but not even close to the Salim, and most of us I hope, have learned, as part of our own democracies, that absolute power for one group leads to great turmoil and human suffering for everyone else, eg: pre-revolutionary France. However, we usually emerge better people, with better societies, when these extreme imbalances are ironed out. And in these epic struggles, people die in sometimes vast numbers, when these imbalances are challenged. Velvet revolutions are a rare beast indeed. I think everyone seriously underestimates how much tourism impacts Thailand, particularly at a grassroots level. Every worker we meet as tourists, is a person who relies almost solely on the industry, and tips etc. to live a dignified life. I recall a conservative estimate of tourism income is 25% of the economy With Thailand, we will likely never know, but as a foreigner here, I use services that would likely not even exist if we all disappeared overnight. Don't forget the ripple effect of all; thus, a tuk tuk driver going bust could well eventually impact the BoT bottom line, just because what he can't afford, ripples out and out to an eventual significant amount of cash. I think globally, it's never been about what "trickles down", but what gets pushed "up" the food chain. that drives wealth. I do not wish suffering on ordinary Thais, but I do pragmatically wish they hurt enough to turn on these salim scumbags who have preyed on them throughout their history. no pain, no gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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