Thailand Risks First Double-Dip Recession Since 1998 Crisis

[tlandtday]

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Painful lessons must be learned if we have another recession since 1998. 

Generals are bad at governing. Keep them out permanently. 

Yellow shirts to be blamed for their stupidity to back the coups twice. 

The junta constitution is highly skewed and have to be changed back to the 1997 people's charter.

Factories can't rely on cheap labors and must automate and mechanise to reduce workers

More efforts must be make to improve domestic tourism with better infrastructures etc

Mass foreign tourism need reviewed for smaller quality tourism

Film at eleven.

[Smithson]

2 hours ago, bougnat said:

Thailand buys gold. The message is clear, supports currency. devaluation is not for tomorrow, unless the boss loses his place .....

Has can devaluation occur when the Baht is not pegged to another currency? There was no devaluation in 97, they just floated that Baht.

[rudi49jr]

15 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Oh dear General what are you going to do? borrow or run ????

Probably keep telling lies, that it’s everybody else’s fault and not his, and stay put, hang on to the power for as long as he can, with any means at his disposal.

[paulikens]

yet the baht barely moves

[khunpa]

15 minutes ago, paulikens said:

yet the baht barely moves

Don’t worry it is going to show it’s real “strength” in time ???? Covid has fast-tracked Thailand’s destiny as a wannabe developing nation.

 

What do they have now to keep their huge uneducated population occupied and to compete with surrounding countries?

Tourism? Forget it. That will take years and will likely never be the same as pre-covid.

 

Production? Many other more political stable countries, that can offer more skilled workers, at better prices.

 

No wonder Thailand is the worst performer in the region and it will be for decades to come.

 

Karma truly did find its way here.

[orang37]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

... use the USD cash reserves to buy back some baht  ...

What US$ reserves ?

[Thingamabob]

Thailand is in much better financial shape today than it was in 1998, notwithstanding the poor performance of the current government.

[Harveyboy]

ok so if a recession does hit .is money in my thai bank safe ..ive thought about transferring more from Europe with the good rate at the moment .yes or no send it or leave it in France/ ..UK  

[Harveyboy]

ok so if a recession does hit .is money in my thai bank safe ..ive thought about transferring more from Europe with the good rate at the moment .yes or no send it or leave it in France/ ..UK  

[nickmondo]

17 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

 

Forward looking investors were planning for that event months ago.

 

 

Some of the smarter ones since 2008.

my pot is ready and waiting!

get that baht down!!!

[stephenterry]

1 hour ago, Smithson said:

Truly long term expats know the Baht is higher now than when they got here.

Yes, in 2006 the rate was 66 to a pound. I doubt we'd see that again.

[Globaleyes]

A 'double dip recession' implies that there would be a period of improvement in the economy between the dips.  Where would this improvement come from, with tourism prohibited, and much of the country in Lockdown? 

All the businesses I frequent are on their knees, with their landlords threatening to kick them out if they don't catch up with their rent - but who would replace them anyway? 

I think a more accurate description would be a Depression, not Recession, as even more people are reaching the end of their savings, or the tolerance of their creditors. 

Additionally, it is not just their tourism sector in trouble.  10% of Thai exports are vehicles. Well, apart from delivery bikes, who is using their vehicles more, thus requiring replacement? People who don't leave the house and have taken a pay cut don't generally buy new vehicles!  Further, people in Thailand are  using taxis/motorbikes or their own vehicles much less, so there is another pillar of the economy (production for domestic use) that has declined.  Then, factor in the spending that these providers used to make, that they no longer can....

There is no economic growth in this country, nor will there be any time soon - quite the reverse. I'm getting my money out of Thailand asap.

 

[raccos21]

Don’t worry the Phuket Sandbox can save the them.

Do they mentioned billions or zillions!?

I totally forgot about it but they said something -llions -llions!

[Knocker33]

2 hours ago, SomchaiCNX said:

No 95 % of the Thai don't deserve it.

True I wasn't on about the Thai people I was referring to those who are supposed to be in charge. But of course they won't suffer

[2ndhomepattaya]

One thing that has had little attention in all this negativity is the relatively high debt levels of lets say "normal" local people.

I have now met a number of Thais that owe more in private unsecured debt then I would be comfortable with even with a secure income until I clock off. Probably no different on secure debt either which can only end in disaster.

How is it possible for someone the have bank loans in excess of 1M baht yet earn less then 16K. And that was before Covid happened.

All this Covid thrown in is asking for trouble in my humble opinion.

 

[BusyB]

19 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

Why would anyone find satisfaction from the possible demise of the economic status of a country and the impact on the vast majority who are already mainly  far from comfortable wealth?

Just wanna say it out loud as well: 'Thank you!'.

 

People who write some of these comments either have no idea or are incredibly ugly human beings.

[Smithson]

48 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

Yes, in 2006 the rate was 66 to a pound. I doubt we'd see that again.

The dollar was at 25 for years, maybe even decades. The AU$ as low as 16.

[peleid]

18 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

I think we would all like the Baht to drop a little chaiswaan--but what seems to hoped for by some of the posters is a 97 type crash, which was  disastrous for the country.

Imports (Oil etc) would rise of course and along with it anything manufactured for the home market, but what is not factored in is the price of the goods sold at home, they also rise.

 

Lets say we are in 97 with a 50% reduction of the baht--and you are a Rice buyer--the stable diet of Thai's, with the Baht crash the Rice you sold overseas at X-baht you can now get x+1 baht, (50% more) so you either sell all your rice overseas or put the home price up to X+1 baht.

 

Sure it would maybe attract more tourist--but that really isn't the runs the Thai economy.

 

Between 45-50 bhat to the pound is about normal, which we are at now, I am quite happy with that

[Smithson]

1 hour ago, khunpa said:

Many other more political stable countries, that can offer more skilled workers, at better prices.

Political instability has never been a problem for the Thai economy. The last two coups had no real affect.

Which countries of more skilled workers at better prices?

 

On the one hand Thailand will not have tourism to fall back on like in 97, on the other there are still plenty of jobs around. Employers are complaining for the lack of migrant labour and in my area it's extremely difficult to find workers even at B500 a day.

[Phredd]

So China comes along and lends/gives Thailand financial assistance and there goes another Country heavily indeted to China, as are most Pacific Islands, including PNG. ????

[the green light]

it is a reality when all the COVID19 programs are not working. The economy will suffer

 

Tourism : Thailand depends 20% of it s GDP on tourism..No matter what they are doing...the tourists are not coming back. Nobody wants to get sick in Thailand when their medical infrastructure is overflowing . If they are coming , then they will be few of them...

 

Export: More bas news, Toyota is shutting down 3 plants.. that will impact export numbers. Due to lockdown and inability to visit and manage manufacturing,  and low international demand of products, companies will either shut down or reduce export from Thailand.

 

All these programs are affecting the local residents and their ability to survive in this pandemic situation. One must worry about the University graduates - no jobs for them

 

the sad news is that there is not much taxation the government can collect from anybody.. the only way is to drop the value of the baht enough to bring  investment back to thailand, followed with a relaxed immigration policy to attract the expat retirees, improve on health plan for all, investing in other program to improve the lives of all Thais.

[soalbundy]

8 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

The myth of possible eternal growth is just a fantasy .

Much better to reduce growth to a healthy and sustainable level .

Capitalism leads to greed . Greed leads to destruction .

Destruction leads to everybody suffering ...

 

Everybody is so scared about a recession ... why ? A reduction in what we consume is a good thing .

A country services its external debt with growth. I can remember many many years ago a Bavarian politician, Franz Joseph Straus, who said, 'growth isn't everything but without it there is nothing'.

[spoon1967]

As we all know Thailand had became too expensive (not in contrast to EU countries of course) since 2006, when we enjoyed 72/74 Baht to 1 GBP. 

 

Most Expats / retirees / tourists now hold onto their purse strings a bit tighter, at 50+ to 1 GBP I think lots will benefit, mega rich will complain about their overseas investments, with respect to import cost rises, but they will survive, as for locals noodles at 30 baht, will still be 30 baht regardless of international rates.

Without going too deep into international currency exchange fluctuation issues,  with I admit I'm not an expert - the THB is due for a welcome drop. the more THB I get, the more I have to spend.

 

 

 

[MrJ2U]

Also lot of Thai people have discovered Online Shopping. 

 

Good for them! Two families own Tesco, Big C, 7/11, and Makro.  There's no longer any competition to drive prices down.  Another government  "misstep".

 

Prices online I find tend to be cheaper than the brick and mortar businesses.  Many companies will find thy have lost many consumers to Shoppee, Lazada, etc. When things, if ever, get back to some normalcy.

 

 

[Smithson]

1 hour ago, the green light said:

it is a reality when all the COVID19 programs are not working. The economy will suffer

 

Tourism : Thailand depends 20% of it s GDP on tourism..No matter what they are doing...the tourists are not coming back. Nobody wants to get sick in Thailand when their medical infrastructure is overflowing . If they are coming , then they will be few of them...

 

Export: More bas news, Toyota is shutting down 3 plants.. that will impact export numbers. Due to lockdown and inability to visit and manage manufacturing,  and low international demand of products, companies will either shut down or reduce export from Thailand.

 

All these programs are affecting the local residents and their ability to survive in this pandemic situation. One must worry about the University graduates - no jobs for them

 

the sad news is that there is not much taxation the government can collect from anybody.. the only way is to drop the value of the baht enough to bring  investment back to thailand, followed with a relaxed immigration policy to attract the expat retirees, improve on health plan for all, investing in other program to improve the lives of all Thais.

Good post, however I would add Thailand needs to improve its education system, this has been discussed for 40 years with no real improvement. While Thailand remains so inefficient there will be jobs for uni grads, but anyone who has employed one knows their limitations.

 

Easier visa rules could see the return of backpackers. They make a good contribution to the economy without destroying the culture and they frequent grassroots businesses.

 

It was backpackers who established tourism here, along with sex tourists of course. Legalising weed, as promised, would be appreciated by both groups.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, spoon1967 said:

As we all know Thailand had became too expensive (not in contrast to EU countries of course) since 2006, when we enjoyed 72/74 Baht to 1 GBP. 

 

Most Expats / retirees / tourists now hold onto their purse strings a bit tighter, at 50+ to 1 GBP I think lots will benefit, mega rich will complain about their overseas investments, with respect to import cost rises, but they will survive, as for locals noodles at 30 baht, will still be 30 baht regardless of international rates.

Without going too deep into international currency exchange fluctuation issues,  with I admit I'm not an expert - the THB is due for a welcome drop. the more THB I get, the more I have to spend.

 

 

 

Absolutely right.  Most retired expats live on fixed income.  I pay my Thai wife to run our house based on the exchange rate, using my Social Security income.  Things have improved lately, so we do spend more.  But the Baht still needs to come down more.  And we need good vaccines in 4th quarter.  Otherwise, we’ll get them in USA.

[MrJ2U]

34 minutes ago, Smithson said:

Good post, however I would add Thailand needs to improve its education system, this has been discussed for 40 years with no real improvement. While Thailand remains so inefficient there will be jobs for uni grads, but anyone who has employed one knows their limitations.

 

Easier visa rules could see the return of backpackers. They make a good contribution to the economy without destroying the culture and they frequent grassroots businesses.

 

It was backpackers who established tourism here, along with sex tourists of course. Legalising weed, as promised, would be appreciated by both groups.

Its nice to have a mix of tourists also.  Many of these backpacker's spend a lot of money compared to the average Thai.

 

 

[Smithson]

5 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

Its nice to have a mix of tourists also.  Many of these backpacker's spend a lot of money compared to the average Thai.

 

 

A study was done in Australia showing they spend the most, because the stay the longest. When the govt was discouraging backpackers the Brit Ambassador wrote an open letter saying he'd come as a gap year student, fallen in love with the place and returned many times later and spent more. This is not uncommon and this is exactly the type of tourists Thailand needs.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Smithson

[Excel]

41 minutes ago, Smithson said:

Good post, however I would add Thailand needs to improve its education system, this has been discussed for 40 years with no real improvement. While Thailand remains so inefficient there will be jobs for uni grads, but anyone who has employed one knows their limitations.

 

Easier visa rules could see the return of backpackers. They make a good contribution to the economy without destroying the culture and they frequent grassroots businesses.

 

It was backpackers who established tourism here, along with sex tourists of course. Legalising weed, as promised, would be appreciated by both groups.

What are you talking about ? "Backpackers who established tourism here ?"

http://peopleshistoryarchive.org/exhibit/tourism-thailand#:~:text=Tourism in Thailand has a,Vietnam from 1955 to 1975.

[MrJ2U]

23 hours ago, HiSoLowSoNoSo said:

At the end this will affect the elite, people got less cash now to spend in the elite owned seven-elevens, Big C's, Centrals etc.

Big C  & Central  are owned by one family.

 

Another family owns Tesco and 7/11.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by MrJ2U