Thailand reports record high of coronavirus infections and deaths

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1

 

" Vaccination status was considered as dose 1 for symptom onset 21 days or more after the first dose up to the day before the 2^nd dose was received."

 

That's a bit different, saying more specifically that their 1 dose findings were based on symptom onset covering the entire period starting from 3 weeks up until the day before the second dose.

 

But if anything, that info would seem to make their 33%+, one dose efficacy finding against symptomatic infection even worse news for the AZ vaccine...

 

Since it would seem to mean their 1 dose efficacy finding wasn't ONLY based on a measurement at exactly the 3 week point, but instead, during a longer period from the three week point after the first dose up until the second dose was received.

 

"Vaccine effects for dose one were estimated for symptom onset dates 21 days or more after the first dose."

 

"Numbers of cases and follow-up periods are currently insufficient to estimate effectiveness against severe disease, including hospitalisation and mortality, however, previous vaccine effectiveness estimates with other variants have shown higher levels of effectiveness against more severe outcomes.(10, 14, 28) Therefore higher levels of effectiveness against severe disease may be anticipated with the B.1.617.2 vaccine."

 

I certainly hope they're saying 1 dose of the AZ ought to give a person better than 33% protection (the symptomatic infection rate) against COVID Delta hospitalization and death -- even though they can't quantify how much.... ????

 

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[mac1970]

Thailand needs to speed up vaccinations. India variant hit here hard few weeks back, like my home town x10 cases compared beginning of the year. But hospitalised and died numbers are at the same level than before. People just don't get the serious symptoms so much anymore. And new cases are mainly 20-29, who most active and not really listening. Vaccination levels are 70% 1st and 35% both, so that's what Thailand needs to achieve fast. 

[drenddy]

Only for comparison.

 

Denmark, population 5.814.180, 76.232.150 PCR tests ( +  many antigen tests), total 316.807 infections.

Thailand, population 69.988.732, 8.129.670 PCR tests, total 597.287 infections.

 

Now, does anyone believe or ever believed Thai Government covid numbers, even when they were praised by WHO?

 

I would say, real thai infections are somewhere between 1 - 1.5 millions.

Edited July 31, 2021 by drenddy

[rabas]

50 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

measuring 3 weeks after the first dose...consistent with the info I posted above:

 

"both vaccines were 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose..."

Sorry, I was called away..

 

I think 3 weeks is just the starting point for data because that's when the first dose becomes highly effective. The second dose is still delayed 12 weeks or so as per normal. Then 2 weeks after the second dose, they take data for 2 dose protection. IOW the 3 weeks is simply a mandatory waiting period for the first dose to be effective. 

 

So yes, as you suggest, it may be worse than thought. you need to wait the 12 weeks at a low level of protection to get up to 60% after the second dose. One passage supports this:

 

The difference in effectiveness between the vaccines after 2 doses may be explained by the fact that rollout of second doses of AstraZeneca was later than for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine,

 

[rabas]

36 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I certainly hope they're saying 1 dose of the AZ ought to give a person better than 33% protection (the symptomatic infection rate) against COVID Delta hospitalization and death -- even though they can't quantify how much.... ????

 

Yes, me too. But I think hope so. 

[johnmcc6]

There is 99% recovery rate and a 1% death rate.The world is not ending.

[JensenZ]

19 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

It is really not much of a surprise. Saw on CNN some doctor from Harvard discussing the Delta variant and how it can spread, etc. And the title was that it's as infectious as smallpox. Found article now that says chicken pox... regardless, not sure if CNN links are allowed, but here's one that's about same subject.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/29/politics/cdc-masks-covid-19-infections/index.html

 

CDC document warns Delta variant appears to spread as easily as chickenpox and cause more severe infection

Washington (CNN)The Delta coronavirus variant surging across the United States appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox, according to an internal document from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The document -- a slide presentation -- outlines unpublished data that shows fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky confirmed the authenticity of the document, which was first reported by The Washington Post.

It's kind of a stupid heading as who knows how fast chickenpox spreads. All I've seen is that delta has an R0 of about 6, double the ancestral variant, alpha's R0 of 3.

[Bkk Brian]

6 hours ago, rabas said:

Yes, me too. But I think hope so. 

There's a new study from Canada with 69,533 people it showed:

 

"showed one dose of AZ’s vaccine, named Vaxzevria in the EU, was 82% effective against hospitalisation or death caused by the Beta/Gamma variants.

According to the study, the vaccine showed an 87% reduction and 90% reduction of hospitalisation or death caused by the Delta and Alpha variants."

https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/one_dose_of_azs_covid-19_vaccine_highly_effective_against_severe_disease_from_variants_1373510

 

Pre print study

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2

[ThailandRyan]

The CCSA and associated bodies are looking at extending the semi-lockdown in the 13 affected provinces for another 2 weeks.  My view on this is that they will just keep kicking the can down the road until we either peak and start to decline in cases, or until October 15th comes along and they decide to reopen the country.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

The CCSA and associated bodies are looking at extending the semi-lockdown in the 13 affected provinces for another 2 weeks.  My view on this is that they will just keep kicking the can down the road until we either peak and start to decline in cases, or until October 15th comes along and they decide to reopen the country.

Just read that, they have a meeting at 1.30pm today and there will be a press briefing after that.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Just read that, they have a meeting at 1.30pm today and there will be a press briefing after that.

I have been noticing the traffic and people on the streets here in Bangkok actually increasing the last part of this week.  Yesterday (Saturday), it seemed like it was a weekday with the roadways busy, the vendors busy, and it appeared as if the office buildings were open for the employees to come in and work.  Now maybe that was because of the 3 days at the beginning of the week (2 being holidays and then Tuesday not", so maybe those folks that took Tuesday off swapped it for working Saturday.  This morning, Sunday, the roads are fairly empty, but the large Construction sites such as The One Bangkok and the others around us are running full tilt.  The only true difference I have been noticing is that the Parks are closed thus those that would run are on the roads, and walking on the sidewalks, the Malls are closed but still have the markets downstairs open as well as pharmacies and the cell phone sellers are still open as well.  Walked in the backside of Central Silom to drop down the escalator to tops and it appeared they were doing some business even though the Central Mall was closed from the front and dark.  Lots of hidden work going on, massage shops dark, but still having folks inside, salons still working.  Did not see the normal checkpoints they set up the first few days either.  Looks like people are fed up, and thus the spread here in BKK will continue as the side Sois are packed with folks buying from the vendors and shops daily, with the 7-11 near us packed last night with a few groups of folks in the parking lot drinking and listening to music.  

[DrJack54]

Today 18027

Die 133

[webfact]

Thailand reports 18,027 new COVID-19 cases, 133 deaths
https://aseannow.com/topic/1226080-thailand-reports-18027-new-covid-19-cases-133-deaths/

 

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