Must Read Thailand reports another record high in new COVID-19 cases

[brewsterbudgen]

32 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Not sure what you mean about living conditions but the digital divide is most certainly a very big problem even in developed nations.

By living conditions I just meant no suitable learning space in the home. How a family with 3 or more kids learning online at home copes, I have no idea! 

[dinsdale]

Just now, James105 said:

Suggesting that it is the adults responsibility to protect children,  and not the other way around, never actually used to be a controversial thing to say.  It’s a strange world we now live in.   

 

Sweden never closed schools.  They made a choice not to sacrifice kids education.   It was probably at the cost of some older lives and  I think they made the right choice.   You will of course disagree and that is your choice.   

If you agree that sacrificing lives is better than sacrificing education in the short term then that's your right. Yes, I do disagree. Per million the death rate of Sweeden is 1,438 wich puts them in the top 40. Their experiment killed a lot of people. 14,617 from a population of just over 10,000,000.

[jacob29]

9 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

 The number of actual deaths, based upon anecdotal evidence, and those being found deceased at home seem to be a tad low.  

 

We don't really need to speculate based on anecdotes, we have data. Seems someone reported my post yesterday for not providing sources, so here we go again...

 

Excess deaths for Thailand in July 25% (up from 17.5% in June)
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=~THA.

 

Population of Thailand ~70m
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/thailand-population/

Death rate of Thailand in 2020, 7.9 per 1000 (0.79%)
Source: https://knoema.com/atlas/Thailand/Death-rate

 

0.79% gives a daily average of around 1515 deaths per day. A 7.5% increase in excess deaths in July (to 25%) means 114 additional excess deaths/day.

 

The total covid deaths in June were around 1000 (~35/day), and July 2820 (~94/day), representing an increase of 60 deaths/day on average.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

 

Which leaves a discrepancy of 54 additional excess deaths not accounted for by COVID. Suggests some level of under-reporting (as happens in most countries), but not what I would characterize as gross intentional under reporting.

 

Two months of data is insufficient to have high confidence in the numbers, as there is noise, but it sure beats anecdotes and vague statements about actual infections/deaths being much higher (numbers being 10x higher is a number thrown around here a lot).

Edited August 5, 2021 by jacob29

[Kadilo]

11 minutes ago, grain said:

I see it where I'm living, in rural Isarn. Since the pandemic started in March 2020 the local school has hardly been open, and it's now many months since it last closed. The kids do nothing, just play in the sand & ride their bikes. Their parents are poorly educated themselves and I'm not aware of any home schooling going on. Yet Thai friends of mine who are teachers at schools for middle class Bangkok kids tell me they are working online every day with their students. So the gap between the middle & upper class Thais and the lower class is widening more than ever now. 

 

Great post. 
 

No coincidence many of the reg posters on here are from BKK

[GroveHillWanderer]

3 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

Effective essentially implies lack of side effects. 

No, it absolutely and definitively doesn't. Efficacy and reactogenicity are two completely separate characteristics of vaccines.

[bkkcanuck8]

1 minute ago, jacob29 said:

Which leaves a discrepancy of 54 additional excess deaths not accounted for by COVID. Suggests some level of under-reporting (as happens in most countries), but not what I would characterize as gross intentional under reporting.

Not saying the same thing could be happening here, but in the US in some small towns doctors have been known to leave COVID-19 as the cause of death off the death certificate at the families request... if there is another cause that could reasonably be blamed (the comorbidity itself). 

 

If someone in a small town brings COVID back to that small town, then it could result in a loss of face... and face is often more important than the truth. 

[anchadian]

Grim toil for morgue workers as Thai virus cases rise

 

Thailand's morgue workers are battling exhaustion as the kingdom's latest Covid-19 wave hits new highs and the death toll mounts.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/grim-toil-for-morgue-workers-as-thai-virus-cases-rise/ar-AAMXlPm

[dinsdale]

20 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

By living conditions I just meant no suitable learning space in the home. How a family with 3 or more kids learning online at home copes, I have no idea! 

I have my kids send in videos to me and other exercises. Most of my students are not well off and some I can see from the videos they are pretty poor. I make things easy for them and they can do it on the LINE app or write in their notebooks and take a pic, print etc. I also have many I recieve no work from neither do the Thai teachers. Why I'm not 100% sure but some I'm told some can not afford the internet. It's a terrible situation but openning schools will make it worse in regards to health outcomes. Health of the nation must take precedence. (edit: not the pockets of the corrupt) Again I will say the extent of this could have been avoided or at least minimised and the whole education, health of the nation and economy situation is down to the fools at the top.

Edited August 5, 2021 by dinsdale

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, grain said:

I see it where I'm living, in rural Isarn. Since the pandemic started in March 2020 the local school has hardly been open, and it's now many months since it last closed. The kids do nothing, just play in the sand & ride their bikes. Their parents are poorly educated themselves and I'm not aware of any home schooling going on. Yet Thai friends of mine who are teachers at schools for middle class Bangkok kids tell me they are working online every day with their students. So the gap between the middle & upper class Thais and the lower class is widening more than ever now. 

 

Very true but also very well known that Thailand's wealth inequality is the highest in the world, however thats not a covid issue that is just another example of it.

[Kadilo]

25 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Stone throwing 101. Childish in my book.

You say it as if your opinion is somehow important. 

Get over it. Not everyone is a sheep looking for ‘likes.’

 

Some people are happy to have their own opinion   

[jazzdog32095]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Just my view, but many people have already thrown in the towel, especially the young and even some elderly, and figure if they are going to become a statistic then well life must be lived and enjoyed while it can, just like the west.  

I fear you may be correct. I watch YouTUBE daily the vids of people on the streets of Pattaya. Three weeks ago very few out and about. Last week and especially last couple days many more people walking around, food carts everywhere. There are packs of Grab motos grouped together waiting for calls to deliver food to go. Likely real world numbers are double or triple of those being reported. Even staying locked up one must send out " scouts " who bring back infection or grab delivering Covid to your door. My plan is to get my Pfizer jab next friday, give it three weeks to build my immunities, then make a runner for a USA " Blue State " and getting another jab in the terminal. The Government here has clearly totally lost control of the situation and is delusional talking about an October 1st reopening.

 

[James105]

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

If you agree that sacrificing lives is better than sacrificing education in the short term then that's your right. Yes, I do disagree. Per million the death rate of Sweeden is 1,438 wich puts them in the top 40. Their experiment killed a lot of people. 14,617 from a population of just over 10,000,000.

Interesting that you call what Sweden did an experiment.  I suspect they are the only country that opened up their decades worth of research and scientific pandemic planning documents and actually followed it.   All of the 20 years worth of UK pandemic planning went out of the window on day 1 to follow the CCP example so on that basis I’d say lockdowns are an experiment.    We don’t know how many additional lives will be lost due to missed/undiagnosed illnesses, suicides, poverty, delayed medical treatments etc, but I am guessing that number will be pretty low for Sweden and catastrophic for everywhere else.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, James105 said:

Interesting that you call what Sweden did an experiment.  I suspect they are the only country that opened up their decades worth of research and scientific pandemic planning documents and actually followed it.   All of the 20 years worth of UK pandemic planning went out of the window on day 1 to follow the CCP example so on that basis I’d say lockdowns are an experiment.    We don’t know how many additional lives will be lost due to missed/undiagnosed illnesses, suicides, poverty, delayed medical treatments etc, but I am guessing that number will be pretty low for Sweden and catastrophic for everywhere else.

Lockdowns an experiment? well its a long experiment that works:

 

How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus

[anchadian]

Thonburi Healthcare President accused of allegedly sharing fake news of Pfizer vaccine procurement

 

Bangkok –

Atchariya Ruangrattanapong, Chairman of the Crime Victims’ Assistance Club, has filed a complaint against the President of Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG), Dr. Boon Vanasin, for allegedly sharing fake news of the THG’s Pfizer vaccine procurement.

 

 

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/08/05/thonburi-healthcare-president-accused-of-allegedly-sharing-fake-news-of-pfizer-vaccine-procurement/

[DrJack54]

4 minutes ago, jazzdog32095 said:

. My plan is to get my Pfizer jab next friday, give it three weeks to build my immunities, .......

 

Give us an update of Pfizer jab next Friday. Good luck.

[Kadilo]

29 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

If you agree that sacrificing lives is better than sacrificing education in the short term then that's your right. Yes, I do disagree. Per million the death rate of Sweeden is 1,438 wich puts them in the top 40. Their experiment killed a lot of people. 14,617 from a population of just over 10,000,000.

Approx 90% of them over 70. 
 

Seems they place a higher importance on education. 

[dinsdale]

7 minutes ago, James105 said:

Interesting that you call what Sweden did an experiment.  I suspect they are the only country that opened up their decades worth of research and scientific pandemic planning documents and actually followed it.   All of the 20 years worth of UK pandemic planning went out of the window on day 1 to follow the CCP example so on that basis I’d say lockdowns are an experiment.    We don’t know how many additional lives will be lost due to missed/undiagnosed illnesses, suicides, poverty, delayed medical treatments etc, but I am guessing that number will be pretty low for Sweden and catastrophic for everywhere else.

Sweden 14,617 deaths attributed to covid-19. Uk which did dismally in the beginning and the second wave are at total deaths of 129,743. 7x the population of Sweden. 7x14,617=102,319. Not a lot of difference between the two. Sweden is also in the top 30 on the covid charts. I think holding Sweden up as an example of how to deal with the pandemic isn't the best choice.

[Macrohistory]

22 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

You say it as if your opinion is somehow important. 

Get over it. Not everyone is a sheep looking for ‘likes.’

 

Some people are happy to have their own opinion   

 

"A sheep looking for likes:"  Block that metaphor!

 

[jacob29]

8 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Maybe the numbers will drop like India's did.  No scientific basis for this but hey it's a hope at least.

Indonesia has been dropping for a few weeks, so it wouldn't be that unexpected to see the same here. Their lockdown sounds about on par with Thailand, not particularly robust.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Approx 90% of them over 70. 
 

Seems they place a higher importance on education. 

Yet, Stefan Lofven, the country's Prime Minister, said “The fact that so many people have died cannot be seen as anything else than a failure.”

[utalkin2me]

40 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

No, it absolutely and definitively doesn't. Efficacy and reactogenicity are two completely separate characteristics of vaccines.

so in your eyes, the vaccine could cause all sorts of issues, including death, and it would still be effective? We use effective vaccines, right, so people would just keep taking them? Lol
 

Not the way it works boss. Vaccines are only effective if they do not have serious side effects. And in this case, we don’t know if these vaccines have side effects yet. 

[sungod]

56 minutes ago, grain said:

I see it where I'm living, in rural Isarn. Since the pandemic started in March 2020 the local school has hardly been open, and it's now many months since it last closed. The kids do nothing, just play in the sand & ride their bikes.

So closing the schools there are a waste of time, instead of hanging around school and infecting each other, they are just doing it out of school and not getting an education.

[AnotherFarang8]

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Sweden 14,617 deaths attributed to covid-19. Uk which did dismally in the beginning and the second wave are at total deaths of 129,743. 7x the population of Sweden. 7x14,617=102,319. Not a lot of difference between the two. Sweden is also in the top 30 on the covid charts. I think holding Sweden up as an example of how to deal with the pandemic isn't the best choice.

A lot of difference can be found in how psychologically and economically Swedish people were not ruined. A huge difference. They will also respect their government for the right choice vs all those who locked down in experiments and not only gained nothing but will end up losing a lot.

[dinsdale]

4 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Great post. 
 

No coincidence many of the reg posters on here are from BKK

You are saying that many people on here are from BKK. Any chance you could tell us how you came to this conclusion. Personally I'm located in Thailand. In two places actually.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Scott

[Blumpie]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

 

What could possibly be more insane, and less science based behavior, than wearing a mask out on a farm with no people around? I saw another guy the other day driving his car with a mask on. Nobody in the car with him. Huh?

 

This is not the Bubonic plague. This is Covid. Yet, one would think this is the Zombie Apocalypse and the end of the world. 

Oh god tell me about it.  

What's with these people with gloves running around too going grocery shopping?  Or having their mask half way down their nose?  To one up you, driving a car with mask and gloves on by themselves.  LMAO!

Gloves do literally nothing.  Wash your damned hands.  I know many people in the health care industry and they just laugh at this bizarre behaviour.  It doesn't get in via your hands!  

[James105]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Sweden 14,617 deaths attributed to covid-19. Uk which did dismally in the beginning and the second wave are at total deaths of 129,743. 7x the population of Sweden. 7x14,617=102,319. Not a lot of difference between the two. Sweden is also in the top 30 on the covid charts. I think holding Sweden up as an example of how to deal with the pandemic isn't the best choice.

The UK did dismally as all the scientific research into pandemic planning was torn up and thrown in the bin as they panicked.   It's too early to say how Sweden did unless the only metric you are interested in is Covid.   The UK has increased their waiting list for medical treatments to something like 12 million (from 5 million), they diagnosed tens of thousands less people for treatable cancer than they normally do and I haven't seen the numbers for suicides.   We don't know how the kids missed education will impact their lives yet.   

 

What I was saying (or trying to say) is that when the dust settles and the pandemic is over, and academics pour over the numbers of deaths from all causes, including poverty, missed treatments, undiagnosed cancers etc, I think Sweden will come out very well.

[sungod]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

You don't ruin a childs entire education with a few months off school and replaced with online learning.

Ridiculous, throw away comment.

 

Since the beginning of this its already been more than a' few months ' . Don't see schools going back until next year so that's another 5 months.

 

 

[rabas]

30 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

The Delta variant is sending more young into the ICU than previous variants.  I also suspect it will not be the last 'variant' that is created, since the longer it takes to reduce the spread to nominal.... the more chances there are for further mutations that will make it more deadly, more contagious or more aggressive at infecting younger people (or a combination of above).   These normal mutations are the least of our worries though ('Antigenic Drift'),  SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is actually a rather slow mutating virus compared to others.  The real risk with the continued spread of SARS-CoV-2 is that it has shown that this version which is primarily human transmissible -- also has been transmitted to animals (cats, dogs, minks, etc.).   In the case of minks there is confirmed proof of bi-directional transmissibility.  Coronaviruses (of which SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is one strain) is limited in diversity in humans (I believe there are 7 known now: 4 strains cause colds, SARS-CoV-2 [COVID-19], SARS-CoV-1 [SARS outbreak of 2003ish] (10% mortality rate), and MERS [limited transmissibility in humans but 38% mortality rate]). 

 

The influenza virus is perennial threat since there are a large diverse reservoir of different influenza strains already in humans, which allows for the risk of 'Antigenic Shift' (as opposed to 'Antigenic Drift') where two different strains of virus infects the same host and allows for the risk of swapping whole segments of the virus between them creating new virus strains (this creates new virus types that we would have NO vaccine to protect us).   Since this version of the virus can transmit to animals and back, there is a risk (though a much lower risk) of this happening in the animals close to us. 

 

The longer this is uncontrolled, the more time we give it to become 'all that it can become'. 

"... the more time we give it to become 'all that it can become'"  

  -- Excellent way to put it, with a touch of PC to boot. 

 

Just to add. There is more at work than antigenic shifts and drifts, which generally describe native human viruses learning to bypass some degree of existing immunity (hence 'antigen')

 

A new virus fresh from nature, or potentially a lab, can also mutate as it adapts to the shape of its new human environment. This can make it more efficient, effective, infective, and potentially more virulent (...becoming all it can). These changes may not be antigenic, more like shaping a new tool to its purpose.

 

More infectious mutations tend to win, like Alpha over Wuhan, Delta over Alpha, etc. So a new virus can trend to be more infective. With Delta's super infectivity, it currently has little pressure to become less virulent, though it can. 

 

So yes, the less accommodating we are as a host, the better.

 

[mtraveler]

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I guess some of us consider education, socialisation skills and child development to be vital.  As you know, I think schools in Thailand were closed far too early, and I hope they are prioritised for re-opening when the wave is over.  I'm no fan of the UK government, but I wish the Thai government placed a similar value on education.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/14/uk/england-schools-hit-by-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html

I don't think that "considering education, socialization skills and child development" vs. closing schools are binary choices.  One can completely believe in the former, and yet also believe that schools should be closed at this time to limit the spread of Covid.  

[mtraveler]

2 hours ago, James105 said:

Thing is, children are dying with the schools closed, and if they are children then their co-morbidity is probably something terminal, such as cancer and they would probably not be anywhere near a school even if open - the most likely scenario (without any details) is that they picked up corona in hospital that they were already in.   Closing schools is a political choice,  and the choice being made here is to sacrifice the life chances and opportunities of those at the beginning of their lives in order to protect those that have already lived a full life.  No-one should pretend that what kids are getting with the schools closed is in any way equivalent to the in-person education that the rest of us have already enjoyed.    

 

I've never been convinced that schools should close (I would have a different opinion if the virus was killing kids of course), but then I've never really seen it as a child's responsibility to make sacrifices to protect the adults.  In the world I used to live in, it was the other way around. 

 

Considering the quality of education here, it might be a blessing that the schools are closed.