Vietnam's economy will outstrip Thailand by 2050, Thai academic

[webfact]

 

A business forum looking at the post pandemic era and the role played by Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam pointed to Vietnam's economy outstripping Thailand by 2050.

 

Dr Piti Srisaengnam, an academic at Chulalongkorn Univestity's ASEAN studies section told the forum that Vietnam was a key competitor of Thailand, reported INN.

 

Vietnam has an improving level of development, modern factories and is attracting an increasing number of foreign investors. 

 

It is a country reforming its laws to world standards and encouraging investors who do not want to see goalposts moved after making investments. 

 

This seemed to be a thinly veiled criticism of Thailand, notes ASEAN NOW.

 

He noted that Vietnam has the same number of trade treaties as Thailand, namely 13, but they refer to deals with 50 countries rather than Thailand's 18.

 

He said that studies show that by 2050 Vietnam will have the 20th largest economy in the world up from the present 32nd place.

 

Meanwhile he said that Thailand's economy in the same period is set to fall from 20th now to 25th in 2050. 

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2021-08-28

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[RotBenz8888]

26 minutes ago, webfact said:

Vietnam has an improving level of development, modern factories and is attracting an increasing number of foreign investors. 

Wouldn't be difficult to surpass Thailand in terms of tourism as well. Just scrap the part regarding ridiculously complicated rules...

[mcdiddly]

This is hilarious. So if Vietnam keeps moving forward and Thailand does exactly the same thing they are doing, Vietnam will surpass them? Maybe Thailand will do something different. Also they are forgetting the little thing called Communisms. 

[jacko45k]

Thirty years hence..... what do I care.

[ourmanflint]

It won't take anywhere near that long. 2030-35

[LongTimeLurker]

I thought VN had already outstripped Thailand.

[BostonRob2]

If Vietnam ever got decent food it might be time to worry.

[AnotherFarang8]

VN has just gone full retard locking down population. Another civil war there is much more likely before economy booming. The red plague is cancer to economy.

[Eric Loh]

Vietnam outstrippingThailand in the same way as China outpacing USA in next decades. Capitalists not looking too good against socialism economics. 

[mfd101]

Nothing surprising in this though you would need to look at the two growth lines over, say, the last 10 years to have a better idea.

 

Currently Thailand 70 million population & nominal GDP US537b; Vietnam 96 million population & nominal GDP US340b. Personally I would expect V to overtake T in the 2030s: simply harder-working, higher productivity, better organized. And they have a nasty northern neighbour with whom they went briefly to war in the 1990s, and who continues to threaten them daily in the Sth China Sea - nothing focusses both government & people better than that.

 

As for those who think that pretend 'communism' or 'socialism' are still relevant to the question, just look at China. Nowhere's perfect but the trend lines are clear ...

Edited August 28, 2021 by mfd101

[Mr Meeseeks]

I got rounded on for suggesting this could happen within 10 years on another thread. ????

Edited August 28, 2021 by Mr Meeseeks

[StayinThailand2much]

I don't doubt it.

 

To name another example, Malaysia had the same GDP per capita as Thailand when it became independent, and look where they are now. Fostering backwardness, rather than education and international relations, as Vietnam does, cannot lead to recurrent economic growth, but only to stagnation. A lot can happen until 2050. Who knows, even Myanmar's economy might outstrip Thailand's by then...

[StayinThailand2much]

26 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

(...) As for those who think that pretend 'communism' or 'socialism' are still relevant to the question, just look at China. Nowhere's perfect but the trend lines are clear ...

I agree. I lived in China, and I have been a couple of times to Vietnam. Apart from a few (red) flags, just like in Thailand, you won't notice 'communism', but instead lots of investment and construction. 

 

I haven't noticed much change in Thailand over the past 20 years. Yes, there are a few shopping malls more now, but, on the other hand, there are still construction sites where nothing has happened since 1997...

Edited August 28, 2021 by StayinThailand2much

[daveAustin]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Thirty years hence..... what do I care.

Baby boomer? ????

 

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Vietnam outstrippingThailand in the same way as China outpacing USA in next decades. Capitalists not looking too good against socialism economics. 

China may surpass US gdp but per capita ain’t looking too good. Paupers in comparison. Paupers living under a scumbag regime. Yuck.

Hopefully the Thais will wake up and rid themselves of their particular brand of scumbag regime. 

[Isaan sailor]

One country competes with Communist China.  The other country embraces and encourages China.  Pretty obvious which country will surpass the other.

[madmen]

On 8/28/2021 at 12:46 PM, RotBenz8888 said:

Wouldn't be difficult to surpass Thailand in terms of tourism as well. Just scrap the part regarding ridiculously complicated rules...

Your joking they have stopped issuing visas and are kicking out expats with longstay visas and borders locked tight It's a nightmare! They would have trouble surpassing Afghanistan let alone Thailand 

[spidermike007]

Thailand is descending rapidly, and I think Malaysia and Vietnam will surpass Thailand alot sooner than that. Maybe even by 2030. If things do not change dramatically here, Thailand is heading toward the lower stratas of failed economies like Burundi, Sierra Leone, the South Sudan, and a few others. They could drop to 100 in the world in GDP, within a generation. Tourism is lost forever. No chance of a significant recovery, for a dozen good reasons. 

 

 

[Doctor Tom]

On 8/28/2021 at 1:25 PM, mcdiddly said:

This is hilarious. So if Vietnam keeps moving forward and Thailand does exactly the same thing they are doing, Vietnam will surpass them? Maybe Thailand will do something different. Also they are forgetting the little thing called Communisms. 

Quite right. Vietnam will learn from Thailand's many mistakes, such as better protecting their natural coastline from over development and building much better tourist infrastructure and facilities, but they are many years from doing that yet a while.  Their education and health systems are years behind, their heavy and high tech industries are very  limited, as is their agriculture.

[MrJ2U]

Probably outstrip it within 5 years.

 

Thats a bright spot in Southeast Asia.

 

 

[hotchilli]

On 8/28/2021 at 12:18 PM, webfact said:

A business forum looking at the post pandemic era and the role played by Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam pointed to Vietnam's economy outstripping Thailand by 2050.

I could imagine that happening well before 2050

[MrJ2U]

1 hour ago, Doctor Tom said:

Quite right. Vietnam will learn from Thailand's many mistakes, such as better protecting their natural coastline from over development and building much better tourist infrastructure and facilities, but they are many years from doing that yet a while.  Their education and health systems are years behind, their heavy and high tech industries are very  limited, as is their agriculture.

Better food.

 

Nice beaches.

 

Ladies tend to have longer svelt legs.

[BangkokReady]

On 8/28/2021 at 1:59 PM, AnotherFarang8 said:

VN has just gone full retard locking down population. Another civil war there is much more likely before economy booming. The red plague is cancer to economy.

Overall dangers and damage to society from communist ideology aside, both China and Vietnam have shown that by admitting the economic failure of communism and switching to capitalist economics, while keeping communism politically to maintain control over the populace, they are able to make their countries richer.  Not nicer, but certainly richer.

[Eric Loh]

Does it really matter that Vietnam outstrip Thailand’s economy. Vietnam prosperity will benefit the region and good for Asean.

 

Asean countries including Thailand are the largest FDI investors in Vietnam.

 

Don’t need to be a economic expert to realize that Vietnam has a youthful and cheap labour force compared to the aging demography for Thailand and in a long haul will be critical for economic growth. Thailand will need to move up the product value chain and use technology to replace the aging labour force rather than compete with Vietnam on low value products. End of the day, the middle class in Thailand must have improve per capita income and the inequality of income narrowed and not challenging for economic supremacy. 

[Tanomazu]

11 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Does it really matter that Vietnam outstrip Thailand’s economy. Vietnam prosperity will benefit the region and good for Asean.

 

Asean countries including Thailand are the largest FDI investors in Vietnam.

 

Don’t need to be a economic expert to realize that Vietnam has a youthful and cheap labour force compared to the aging demography for Thailand and in a long haul will be critical for economic growth. Thailand will need to move up the product value chain and use technology to replace the aging labour force rather than compete with Vietnam on low value products. End of the day, the middle class in Thailand must have improve per capita income and the inequality of income narrowed and not challenging for economic supremacy. 

Why do you think income inequality should be narrowed in Thailand, wouldn't more expensive salaries make Thailand even less competitive?

[Doctor Tom]

37 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

Better food.

 

Nice beaches.

 

Ladies tend to have longer svelt legs.

all very true 

[BostonRob2]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Thailand is descending rapidly, and I think Malaysia and Vietnam will surpass Thailand alot sooner than that. Maybe even by 2030. If things do not change dramatically here, Thailand is heading toward the lower stratas of failed economies like Burundi, Sierra Leone, the South Sudan, and a few others. They could drop to 100 in the world in GDP, within a generation. Tourism is lost forever. No chance of a significant recovery, for a dozen good reasons. 

 

 

Your version of GDP ...Gloom and Doom Predictions.

[Eric Loh]

3 hours ago, Tanomazu said:

Why do you think income inequality should be narrowed in Thailand, wouldn't more expensive salaries make Thailand even less competitive?

Income inequality hurts economic growth as it wastes human capital and human potential. Health and well-being from inequality contribute to low productivity.

 

Competitive salaries rather than expensive salaries contribute to attracting and retaining good staffs and lead to increasing productivity. Thailand need to improve its productivity and I feel that allowing competitive salary rather than minimum wage is the right approach besides improving education, training etc 

[Tanomazu]

7 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Income inequality hurts economic growth as it wastes human capital and human potential. Health and well-being from inequality contribute to low productivity.

 

Competitive salaries rather than expensive salaries contribute to attracting and retaining good staffs and lead to increasing productivity. Thailand need to improve its productivity and I feel that allowing competitive salary rather than minimum wage is the right approach besides improving education, training etc 

That's all true, however, the money to pay the increased salaries has to come from somewhere. If you own a business and suddenly have to pay increased salaries will that not impact your business negatively?

 

Was it not Thailand's low wages that made Thailand attractive for investment, and is it not the lower wages in Vietnam that lead companies to move there?

[NeoDinosaw]

On 8/28/2021 at 7:25 AM, mcdiddly said:

This is hilarious. So if Vietnam keeps moving forward and Thailand does exactly the same thing they are doing, Vietnam will surpass them? Maybe Thailand will do something different. Also they are forgetting the little thing called Communisms. 

They only pretend to be communist.  They will surpass Thailand much sooner than 30 years. 

[The Cipher]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Don’t need to be a economic expert to realize that Vietnam has a youthful and cheap labour force.

I am really bullish on Vietnam for this exact reason. Very favorable demographics, huge urbanization potential, lots of room for catch-up growth, and a population with a relatively more Northeast Asian work-ethic. I intend to spend more time there familiarizing myself with the country/culture once the pandemic situation normalizes. Pretty easy call for attractive long-horizon growth.

 

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Thailand will need to move up the product value chain and use technology to replace the aging labour force rather than compete with Vietnam on low value products.

Conversely Thailand over the same horizon is facing the same intense demographic challenges of other Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, but without the deep capital reserves and advanced economy. And it seems too late to build up these buffers before the aging tsunami hits. I'm not sure that there's the appetite in Thailand for mass immigration either.

 

I think the country will still be a fun place for the next 10-15 years, but unless something radical happens in that time, stagnation/decline thereafter seems pretty inevitable.