Thai government advised to prepare for financial fallout from China’s ‘Evergrande’ crisis

[snoop1130]

A general view shows the Evergrande Center building in Shanghai on September 22, 2021. Hector RETAMAL / AFP

 

Thailand’s former finance minister and Kla Party Leader Korn Chatikavanij has strongly advised the Thai government to take precautionary steps to protect against any fallout from China’s Evergrande crisis.

 

In his Facebook post today, he said that, for the past several weeks, the government has been busy dealing with the floods, while foreign media and economists have been closely monitoring Evergrande.

 

The Chinese property giant is the most indebted developer in the world at present, reportedly in the hole by as much as US$305 billion due to its heavy investment in real estate projects in China and a wide range of other industries, including electric cars, health care services, consumer products and even a theme park.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-government-advised-to-prepare-for-financial-fallout-from-chinas-evergrande-crisis/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-10-04

 

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[Cake Monster]

I thought that a statement was issued a few Days ago, which basically stated Thailand had very little exposure to the Evergrande melt down.

If Korn is sounding a warning, then I doubt this to be the case.

[Cherrytreeview]

Oh dear.

The boards loyal band of CCP apologists will be along soon to put a spin on this.

A country and economy built on sand.

 

Evergrande set to raise more cash from partial sale of its property services unit

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/evergrande-set-to-sell-part-of-stake-in-property-services-unit.html?__source=androidappshare

 

[Gold Star]

Chinese tourism in Thailand is a long way off, and perhaps may never come. 

 

China has suspended 98% of passport renewals and applications and revoked many others. As the heavily leveraged property bubble collapses, it will take down a lot of other things with it. New Myanmar border fences have just recently been built with the razor wire facing inwards. Getting money and wealth out of China is very difficult now. Don't count on Chinese investors in the Thai condo market being able keep up their payments.

 

 

[timendres]

Evergrande is the caricature of a property bubble about to go pear shaped. A power grid so stressed that blackouts are common place now, and even factories are shuttered for days each week. An attack on the tech sector that has caused four companies to lose $250B USD in market value. And now we hear that Xi is selling strategic oil reserves to "stabilize prices" (yeah, nah). The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment. Thailand seems to be the kid who always kissed up to the popular kid on the playground, and is about to find itself without any friends.

[chalawaan]

The big question the fin media are asking: What happens if Evergrande triggers a domino effect in the property construction industry? How many zombie companies are waiting to rise from debt graveyards and eat the poor schmucks who bought in? 

timendres post raises some good points. 

 

Xi tried to channel Mao, and we all (except the Chinese brainwashed youth) know exactly how that went boobies-up on more than one occasion, Mao sent China back to the bronze age before the old buzzard carked it, and a smarter Chairman started modern reform.

 

Now Xi is drunk on self-aggrandizement, deluded by his own "wisdom" and taking away all the freedoms that China enjoyed at the turn of this Century.

First were the girls, the sex industry, which at the time, put Thailand in the shade! Virtually every hotel had a floor of whores. That crackdown didn't go down well behind closed doors, but through shame and whatnot, they publicly wore it. Now bear in mind China has a female shortage, you don't want millions of horny men wandering about, society comes undone eventually. 

 

Then one after the other, the CCP under Xi, has attacked everyone from Jack Ma, to crypto geeks, to gamers, to his own PLA veterans protesting pensions, all the way across modern society to gays and celebrity influencers.

 

I don't know how he imagines the genie is going to go back into all those bottles, and let us not even get started on the fights he's picked abroad, and then Delta Covid vs their dodgy vaccines, naturally, you're not hearing a peep about that!

 

I give the CCP ten years unless it wakes up and treats its own huddled masses with a bit more respect. The biggest fear now is they'll start a war to distract from all the self inflicted injury at home.

 

[garyk]

I think CCP just delisted Evergrande. Luckly it was never traded outside of China I think?

It rocked the US market very lightly then rebounded quickly.

I only hold one Chinese stock and I wish I had never bought into it now. It is loosing me a few thousand.

 

[MRToMRT]

I can't take anything Korn says seriously after he complained that his kids had to pay for medical treatment in London. Another elite waste of my time who has multiple agendas that I do not have enough money to be capable of understanding.

[chalawaan]

1 hour ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Oh dear.

The boards loyal band of CCP apologists will be along soon to put a spin on this.

A country and economy built on sand.

 

Evergrande set to raise more cash from partial sale of its property services unit

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/04/evergrande-set-to-sell-part-of-stake-in-property-services-unit.html?__source=androidappshare

 

You may be confusing non-racists with CCP apolgists? There are one or two communists here, and I don't defend them, but most moaners here see the "yellow peril" even when they take a pee, they need to get a life.

 

I worked in China, while there is indeed much to criticize, the CCP are invariably at the root of all the crappiness there. 

I am proud to claim a Beijing-born Aussie citizen as one of my oldest and most trusted friends. A brother from another mother. 

 

The CCP is the enemy, not every other Chinese that walks the earth! Chinese can be found in the western military, and most hold Commissions due to their talent. Yet one-eyed ignoramuses are always willing to slag them and their families off in the street! Not very smart.

[sammieuk1]

For the past several weeks, the government has been busy dealing with the floods, well they all crammed on a boat  cruised down the river and confirmed the water was wet ????  

[cheapcanuck]

4 hours ago, chalawaan said:

. The biggest fear now is they'll start a war to distract from all the self inflicted injury at home.

They are not the USA. No war will be started.

[The Cipher]

Quote

Evergrande is the caricature of a property bubble about to go pear shaped. A power grid so stressed that blackouts are common place now, and even factories are shuttered for days each week. An attack on the tech sector that has caused four companies to lose $250B USD in market value. And now we hear that Xi is selling strategic oil reserves to "stabilize prices" (yeah, nah). The seams are starting to fray, as is inevitable with any communist experiment.

Wow. This is how normies see the situation? Very interesting insight.

[Cherrytreeview]

10 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Wow. This is how normies see the situation? Very interesting insight.

Let's hear your insights.

[smedly]

6 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

I thought that a statement was issued a few Days ago, which basically stated Thailand had very little exposure to the Evergrande melt down.

If Korn is sounding a warning, then I doubt this to be the case.

well who knows 

 

some corrupt spoils are going belly up 

 

I hope it doesn't impact the baht 

 

but honestly I would prefer that certain individuals mentioning no names completely lost their ###

[smedly]

6 hours ago, Gold Star said:

China has suspended 98% of passport renewals and applications and revoked many others

They are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan - you heard it here first 

 

My estimation is that it is weeks away

 

With wooden top Biden holding the big seat the US is totally unprepaired for such an event 

 

and on the backfoot of a global crisis that originated in China ..........is anyone joining up the dots

 

PS - for the record, I have not read any other posts on this thread but I will do now 

[smedly]

5 hours ago, chalawaan said:

Xi tried to channel Mao

China is being slowly pushed into a corner - have you ever cornered a rat

 

The world has had enough of Xi and so have we

[smedly]

2 hours ago, chalawaan said:

 

Well this is a surprise! I never claimed you were being a racist! I was posting in support, in fact, that you went to the trouble to use CCP and not the generic "Chinese". 

If you feel patronised, did I hit a nerve?

If you feel lectured, then you're reading far too much into it on a personal level.

For someone who could not care less, you sure took the time to be quite offensive.

 

Looks I've inadvertendly pressed every button on your panel!

 

I will concede I may have been virtue signalling rather shamelessly...

But see? I can laugh at myself, it's only a forum, sport.

 

BTW. This PC nonsense is still only trotted out by silly old duffers. You sound like my Dad and I'm sixty!

 In any case, everybody under sixty with a heart knows it's just shorthand for jerks to wear their jerk badge with a belligerent pout! LoL.

 

And, since you don't care what I think, or indeed anything about me, we shan't expect any more unwarranted vitriol from you, right? ????

 

 

 

 

 

do you have a patent on that post, could you shift some words around and send it to Xi lol

[CG1 Blue]

10 minutes ago, smedly said:

They are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan - you heard it here first 

 

My estimation is that it is weeks away

 

With wooden top Biden holding the big seat the US is totally unprepaired for such an event 

 

and on the backfoot of a global crisis that originated in China ..........is anyone joining up the dots

 

PS - for the record, I have not read any other posts on this thread but I will do now 

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

[smedly]

2 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

you're da man

[The Cipher]

47 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Let's hear your insights.

Well, I'm at work so will have to be succinct.

 

Briefly, some of you guys are overly focused on second-order effects without considering the why of those effects in the context of the country and society in which they're occurring. For instance, why is Evergrande verging on default? Why did CN tech and edu companies see a hit to valuations earlier this year? And why did casino and gaming companies see a more recent slide?

 

Hint: There's a common thread to many of the items that the poster I originally replied to raised.

Then consider why triggering these short-term difficulties might be the play for an agent whose horizon is very long-term rather than focused on the next-quarter or next-election-cycle.

[Cherrytreeview]

7 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

Well, I'm at work so will have to be succinct.

 

Briefly, some of you guys are overly focused on second-order effects without considering the why of those effects in the context of the country and society in which they're occurring. For instance, why is Evergrande verging on default? Why did CN tech and edu companies see a hit to valuations earlier this year? And why did casino and gaming companies see a more recent slide?

 

Hint: There's a common thread to many of the items that the poster I originally replied to raised.

Then consider why triggering these short-term difficulties might be the play for an agent whose horizon is very long-term rather than focused on the next-quarter or next-election-cycle.

Hint :You mean China is an uninvestable Communist state?

Run by a totalitarian gang of brutal overlords?

Determined to "bang the head of any enemy off a wall of steel until it's bloodied."

Difficult too know exactly what you mean because it's a bunch of riddles.

If your busy at work feel free to not reply, I don't want you getting in trouble with "big boss."

 

 

https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/fundsmith-we-ve-been-proved-right-on-chinese-burn-fears/a1561031?assetClassID=1

[The Cipher]

51 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Hint :You mean China is an uninvestable Communist state?

Run by a totalitarian gang of brutal overlords?

Determined to "bang the head of any enemy off a wall of steel until it's bloodied."

Difficult too know exactly what you mean because it's a bunch of riddles.

If your busy at work feel free to not reply, I don't want you getting in trouble with "big boss."

Way to jump to conclusions, bruh. The link you provided is a little amusing because I'm actually an investment manager myself lol.

 

And we're generally steering clear of China for investment purposes as well at the moment. Regulatory risk in the current environment is high and it's clear that gov is interested in bringing about structural reform with minimal regard for institutional investor feelings at the current time. I think there will probably be deals to be had once the waters calm, but I'm not sure when that will be.

But the perspective of an investor can be very different from the perspective of an administration. Rightly or wrongly, this government seems to be enacting a rock-the-boat agenda that is willing to endure short term pain and volatility in pursuit for what they see as a long-term plan for the state and society. And you can love it or hate it. This game is waaaaaay bigger than each of us, and the players don't care at all what we think.

 

But it's disingenuous to project your hopes and desires of a house-of-cards style collapse on a situation where that conclusion doesn't fit the evidence.

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

They are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan - you heard it here first 

 

My estimation is that it is weeks away

Let's hope that my wife can use that as an 'chumming up to China' asylum fear for returning to Thailand one day and save on the immigration settlement fees ! 

[placeholder]

Soros Calls BlackRock’s China Investment a ‘Tragic Mistake’

George Soros criticized BlackRock Inc.’s China push as a risk to clients’ money and U.S. security interests, in the billionaire financier and philanthropist’s latest broadside against investment in the world’s second-largest economy. 

“Pouring billions of dollars into China now is a tragic mistake,” Soros wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. “It is likely to lose money for BlackRock’s clients and, more important, will damage the national security interests of the U.S. and other democracies.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-07/george-soros-calls-blackrock-s-china-investment-tragic-mistake

 

And there are lots of others, as well.

[placeholder]

What no one else in the forum seems to have noted so far is that this Korn character offers absolutely nothing concrete that Thailand can do to protect itself from this possibly impending disaster. And there's a good reason for that: there is very little that Thailand can do. Its proximity to the world's 2nd (or 1st in terms of PPP) means that its economy is necessarily highly vulnerable to Chinese economic distress.

There's a basic and universal applicable economic observation characterized as gravity. Basically it means that the closer you are to a country, the more you will trade with that country. (There are a few obvious exceptions in the case of nations that have embargoes foreign trade). And that effect is amplified or lessened depending on the size of their respective economies. It's pretty clear how that consideration describes the relation of Thailand and China.

[ourdon]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

They are preparing for an invasion of Taiwan - you heard it here first 

 

My estimation is that it is weeks away

 

With wooden top Biden holding the big seat the US is totally unprepaired for such an event 

 

and on the backfoot of a global crisis that originated in China ..........is anyone joining up the dots

 

PS - for the record, I have not read any other posts on this thread but I will do now 

 

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Sorry, but I didn't hear it here first. A senior CCP minister made a statement a couple of weeks ago saying the 'reunification' of China/Taiwan will happen soon and will be completed much quicker than most people anticipate. 

And I don't think there's much the US or anybody will be able to do about it - sadly

Interesting that this conversation is going on.  My newsfeed just brought up the latest Chinese incursion into Taiwan's identification zone.  This time the incursion included three dozen fighters, a squadron of nuclear capable bombers and some AWACS.   

 

The last few years have been rather jagged for Taiwan.  In 2020 China made 380 incursions into Taiwan's airspace.  This year they have made over 600 so far.

 

The US made its feelings about this known.  The Chinese spokesperson said many words which boiled down to "Mind your own damm business"

 

The math for Taiwan is pretty grim.  For the CCP, domestic troubles fade away when one is in a patriotic, popular foreign war.

 

Gawd I hope we're REALLY wrong.  Flying gets problematical when there are active volcano's or radiation clouds in the area

[Rampant Rabbit]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

With wooden top Biden

????????

[charmonman]

8 hours ago, cheapcanuck said:

They are not the USA. No war will be started.

Except against Taiwan

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Chinese property giant is the most indebted developer in the world at present, reportedly in the hole by as much as US$305 billion due to its heavy investment in real estate projects in China and a wide range of other industries, including electric cars, health care services, consumer products and even a theme park.

Sounds like China in general, things are going south fast and little cash flow.

[Mr Meeseeks]

15 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

I thought that a statement was issued a few Days ago, which basically stated Thailand had very little exposure to the Evergrande melt down.

If Korn is sounding a warning, then I doubt this to be the case.

There's also a knock on effect to the Thai property market which will see the first real crash here in many years.

 

I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what develops.  

 

It's starting now with Evergrande, and I believe we're weeks away from a massive crash. Asia, because of its reliance on China, will bear the brunt of it. 

 

Get out of stocks and fiat and into Crypto and metals; Gold and Silver etc. They will be the only safe havens once it starts.