Will this pandemic ever end as the infections in the UK surge again.

[mommysboy]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, there's also the polio and measles vaccines. Both are clearly capable of eliminating their targets. Vaccination refusal for one reason or another being what stands in the way.

The issue here is the nature of the virus I suppose.  

 

It is clear that the polio and measles vaccines can stop a pandemic in it's tracks, whereas the covid vaccines can't as yet, can they?  Whether you interpret this as anti-vax is your decision, for reasons perhaps only understood by yourself.

 

I am not anti-vax.  Do you doubt that I have had 2 pfizer vaccinations?

 

Apples and pears!  Simple logic.

[onthedarkside]

A number of posts have been removed or edited, mainly for bickering comments and flames against other members. It's time for taking a deep breath, and going to everyone's respective corners.

 

If you feel compelled to continue, please post on the topic and avoid verbal attacks on other posters.

 

[blackprince]

On the topic of whether vaccines eliminate disease or not, the evidence is that it depends on the disease (and the vaccine).

 

There's little mileage in splitting hairs about covid vaccine efficacy.

 

Surely everyone here is informed enough after nearly a year of empirical evidence about covid vaccines that none of them eliminates covid but all of them substantially reduce viral load and the risk of transmission, death, serious illness, and mutating variants.

 

Given the accelerating research in this field we may well find that a vaccine will be developed that does eliminate covid, but we are some way away from that right now.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

I think bringing the performance of OTHER vaccines into this discussion, while providing correct info, muddied the waters some, as this discussion is about the COVID vaccines, not those for various other illnesses.

 

As far as the current COVID vaccines are concerned, I haven't seen any credible scientific opinion published that says the current vaccines are likely to entirely eliminate coronavirus infections from the world.

 

The best current expected result for current COVID vaccines, assuming people take them, seems to be that COVID infection rates and cases will be significantly reduced, and hopefully accompanying medical advances (treatments) will lessen the illness impact for those who end up stiill being infected.

 

I'm ardently pro COVID vaccine in all this, for all the obvious reasons. And everyone who can be safely vaccinated should be vaccinated for the good of everyone. But in their current version, the COVID vaccines are not a 100% solution, as is pretty well understood by all involved. But they're the best solution we've got, for the time being.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

As for the OP. Yes, this pandemic will end. Quicker if the holdouts get vaccinated.

 

Then, it will be like the yearly flu. Still a killer, but not a global pandemic.

[mommysboy]

33 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

As for the OP. Yes, this pandemic will end. Quicker if the holdouts get vaccinated.

 

Then, it will be like the yearly flu. Still a killer, but not a global pandemic.

Yes, that's about the way I see it.  

 

Even the hold outs will eventually get immunity through natural means as they will catch covid sooner or later.  80% vaccine rate will likely do the trick and that is very doable in most countries, and, although things will get a bit hairy, nature will do the rest.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, mommysboy said:

Yes, that's about the way I see it.  

 

Even the hold outs will eventually get immunity through natural means as they will catch covid sooner or later.  80% vaccine rate will likely do the trick and that is very doable in most countries, and, although things will get a bit hairy, nature will do the rest.

Natural immunity isn't our quickest way out. Too many deaths. Sad some are against the vaccine.

[Virt]

5 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Natural immunity isn't our quickest way out. Too many deaths. Sad some are against the vaccine.

The next 6 months will be interesting to follow, since more and more countries make vaccines mandatory for certain groups, and several european cities has banned unvaccinated people from visiting restaurants, bars etc etc even if they have a negative test.

 

We are probably going to see a bunch of protests because of that, but as long as we have so many that refuse to take the darn shots,

we're not moving anywhere.

 

I'm super pro vaccine, but the vaccines do tend to lose their efficiency quite fast, so boosters has to be taken, maybe once or twice a year.  That's not optimal, so hopefully some of the companies that are developing new vaccines, succeed to make one that offers lifelong protection.  It shouldn't be impossible, but time will tell.

 

This pandemic is not over by a long shot, and i fear it's going to take longer than we expected in the first place.

 

One of the reasons are the anti vaxers, but another thing is that the vaccines don't last as long as we hoped for, plus many poor countries has practically didn't start the vaccination program yet.

Not a great combo.

 

I participated in a test that lasted a year on my work, where we were tested several times for covid 19/anti bodies.  I haven't had covid 19 yet, so the anti body levels were the ones that i wanted to know after i got the vaccine.

 

I got pfizer in May and June, and i had a blood sample taken in Start september i think it was. Result came back with medium levels of anti bodies. (range is from negativ,low,medium,high)

And that was just after 3 months, so i will grab my booster shot as soon as it is offered to me.  Even though i don't know if it was actually at high levels shortly after second shot, or if it was medium levels all the way, since each person develop various levels of anti bodies.

[Jeffr2]

Here's 2 interesting articles on this.  Worth a read.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-12/6-month-covid-outlook-2021

Here’s What the Next Six Months of the Pandemic Will Bring

The race between vaccinations and new variant strains won’t end until Covid-19 has touched almost everyone.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/08/health/covid-19-pandemic-endgame-wellness/index.html

 

What the end of the Covid-19 pandemic could look like

[Jeffr2]

5 hours ago, Virt said:

The next 6 months will be interesting to follow, since more and more countries make vaccines mandatory for certain groups, and several european cities has banned unvaccinated people from visiting restaurants, bars etc etc even if they have a negative test.

 

We are probably going to see a bunch of protests because of that, but as long as we have so many that refuse to take the darn shots,

we're not moving anywhere.

 

I'm super pro vaccine, but the vaccines do tend to lose their efficiency quite fast, so boosters has to be taken, maybe once or twice a year.  That's not optimal, so hopefully some of the companies that are developing new vaccines, succeed to make one that offers lifelong protection.  It shouldn't be impossible, but time will tell.

 

This pandemic is not over by a long shot, and i fear it's going to take longer than we expected in the first place.

 

One of the reasons are the anti vaxers, but another thing is that the vaccines don't last as long as we hoped for, plus many poor countries has practically didn't start the vaccination program yet.

Not a great combo.

 

I participated in a test that lasted a year on my work, where we were tested several times for covid 19/anti bodies.  I haven't had covid 19 yet, so the anti body levels were the ones that i wanted to know after i got the vaccine.

 

I got pfizer in May and June, and i had a blood sample taken in Start september i think it was. Result came back with medium levels of anti bodies. (range is from negativ,low,medium,high)

And that was just after 3 months, so i will grab my booster shot as soon as it is offered to me.  Even though i don't know if it was actually at high levels shortly after second shot, or if it was medium levels all the way, since each person develop various levels of anti bodies.

The world is getting smaller and smaller for the unvaccinated.  Luckily.

 

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-europe-austria-health-1188b65ea3d8d80c40e40d3e13aea0a2

Austrian leader says lockdown for the unvaccinated is likely

[Scott]

I think it's going to be a long time before we see an end to the pandemic.  Once we see a medical end (or manageable slowdown of spread), the after effects are going to longer-lasting.  

 

First, we can vaccinate our way to an early end, or we can allow infections to kill a lot more people and disable some.  Letting it burn itself out naturally is an extremely poor way to deal with it.  It will also be less effective and prolong the agony.  

 

Although natural immunity does occur, it does not occur in a uniform manner.  Vaccines are very effective and they are specific in the protein they target on the Coronavirus spike.  Natural immunity does not assure the same thing.  It may rid us of the virus, but it may target another protein that can mutate and easily breakthrough the natural immunity.  Most people will get lucky and it will target the right protein.  

 

Natural immunity also does not appear to last as long as the immunity conferred by vaccines.  In short, it is less reliable and to end a pandemic we need to have reliability.  

With each vaccine we have reasonably good statistics about how well they work, what variants they work well on and which ones where they are less effective.  We have a good idea of how long they are effective.  We have a reasonably good idea who needs to be boosted and when.  

 

The other wild card, of course, is variants.  We've been lucky so far with relatively good protection.   There is a limit to how much the virus can mutate and still remain viable.  As it now stands, we have a close eye on variants and hopefully new vaccines will continue to be more and more effective against them.  

 

But deaths aren't the only factor to consider.  Somewhere between 10% and 30% of Covid is ending up being long-Covid and thus far we have no treatment for it.   It has similarities to Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and we've not found a cause or treatment for that either.  Long Covid has a big effect on the labor supply.  

 

The last point is that we have been good at providing vaccines for wealthy nations, but as you go down the wealth scale, the amount of vaccines gets pretty scant.  As long as any country or group is experiencing infections, we are all at risk.

 

We have a ways to go before the end of this pandemic is insight.  

 

[Jeffr2]

From my link above:

 

“I don’t see why two-thirds should lose their freedom because one-third is dithering,” Schallenberg said. “For me, it is clear that there should be no lockdown for the vaccinated out of solidarity for the unvaccinated.”

[howerde]

On 10/24/2021 at 1:45 PM, RJRS1301 said:

The current one will be replaced by one with a new mutations/variants, as is being seen in Spain, Africa and part of Euro.

This will continue for several years, and booster vaccinations will be required.

Cases will surge and deaths will continue especially in the unvaxxed communities, and in vaccine poor nations

it seem the over 50's vaxxxed have a higher death rate than unvaxxed in UK

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

 

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, howerde said:

it seem the over 50's vaxxxed have a higher death rate than unvaxxed in UK

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

 

Do you know the difference between a death toll and a death rate? The most fundamental knowledge of statistics will tell you that the rate is not higher as you claim.

 

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, howerde said:

it seem the over 50's vaxxxed have a higher death rate than unvaxxed in UK

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

 

Click bait for anti vaxxers.

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, howerde said:

it seem the over 50's vaxxxed have a higher death rate than unvaxxed in UK

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

 

It seems you misread the article

"Death rates among the unvaccinated are significantly higher.

For people aged over 80, the unvaccinated have a death rate of 125.4 per 100,000 compared to the vaccinated 54.9 per 100,000 in the past four weeks.

For 70-79 the gap is even wider, with the unvaccinated death rate at 103.8 per 100,000 compared to 16.2 for the vaccinated."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It seems you misread the article

"Death rates among the unvaccinated are significantly higher.

For people aged over 80, the unvaccinated have a death rate of 125.4 per 100,000 compared to the vaccinated 54.9 per 100,000 in the past four weeks.

For 70-79 the gap is even wider, with the unvaccinated death rate at 103.8 per 100,000 compared to 16.2 for the vaccinated."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

Anti vaxxers aren't much for details.  Just read the title and go with it.

[howerde]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It seems you misread the article

"Death rates among the unvaccinated are significantly higher.

For people aged over 80, the unvaccinated have a death rate of 125.4 per 100,000 compared to the vaccinated 54.9 per 100,000 in the past four weeks.

For 70-79 the gap is even wider, with the unvaccinated death rate at 103.8 per 100,000 compared to 16.2 for the vaccinated."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

I was not talking about the over 80s, just pointing out an article about the 

 

9 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Anti vaxxers aren't much for details.  Just read the title and go with it.

Bit touchy hit a nerve?,  i'm not an anti vaxxer, infact i have been double jabbed and over 50

[ozimoron]

26 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Anti vaxxers aren't much for details.  Just read the title and go with it.

They know. It's wilful ignorance. This type of misinformation is politically motivated. In many cases the poster is themselves vaccinated but they spread misinformation in an attempt to convince people not to get vaccinated. They don't care how much human suffering they cause, they just want the current administration to fail so as not to contrast how badly the previous administration failed. The proof is in the absence of any widespread push back against vaccines in the past and the correlation between political leanings and attitudes to the virus in general. It is totally reprehensible.

[Jeffr2]

26 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

They know. It's wilful ignorance. This type of misinformation is politically motivated. In many cases the poster is themselves vaccinated but they spread misinformation in an attempt to convince people not to get vaccinated. They don't care how much human suffering they cause, they just want the current administration to fail so as not to contrast how badly the previous administration failed. The proof is in the absence of any widespread push back against vaccines in the past and the correlation between political leanings and attitudes to the virus in general. It is totally reprehensible.

Thus, people should fact check articles like that before spreading them around.  Misinformation is the #1 health problem today.

[Scott]

55 minutes ago, howerde said:

it seem the over 50's vaxxxed have a higher death rate than unvaxxed in UK

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/revealed-thousands-of-double-jabbed-over-50-s-have-died-in-the-last-4-weeks-190548036.html

 

There are several possible reasons for this.  First, it depends on the vaccine and the variant.  If those that are vaxxed with AZ and they get either Beta or Delta, the vaccine is not particularly effective.  With Beta, AZ drops down to 10% efficacy.  Efficacy is at around 60% for Delta.  

 

Second, the report doesn't say much about any other factors such as when they were vaccinated.  If they were in the early group vaccinated, are they experiencing waning antibodies?  Do they have other factors such as  being immunocompromised?

 

I am sure the NHS will be looking at this very carefully.   That said, it is not a positive development. 

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Scott said:

There are several possible reasons for this.  First, it depends on the vaccine and the variant.  If those that are vaxxed with AZ and they get either Beta or Delta, the vaccine is not particularly effective.  With Beta, AZ drops down to 10% efficacy.  Efficacy is at around 60% for Delta.  

 

Second, the report doesn't say much about any other factors such as when they were vaccinated.  If they were in the early group vaccinated, are they experiencing waning antibodies?  Do they have other factors such as  being immunocompromised?

 

I am sure the NHS will be looking at this very carefully.   That said, it is not a positive development. 

The article specifically says that the death rate for the unvaccinated is higher.

[Will B Good]

8 minutes ago, Scott said:

There are several possible reasons for this.  First, it depends on the vaccine and the variant.  If those that are vaxxed with AZ and they get either Beta or Delta, the vaccine is not particularly effective.  With Beta, AZ drops down to 10% efficacy.  Efficacy is at around 60% for Delta.  

 

Second, the report doesn't say much about any other factors such as when they were vaccinated.  If they were in the early group vaccinated, are they experiencing waning antibodies?  Do they have other factors such as  being immunocompromised?

 

I am sure the NHS will be looking at this very carefully.   That said, it is not a positive development. 

Plus the "vaccine paradox"......if the vast majority of over 50's are vaccinated, then the majority of deaths will be in those that are vaccinated.

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The article specifically says that the death rate for the unvaccinated is higher.

It's the same type of misinformation that people were throwing around regarding Israel a few months ago.  Sure, double jabbed people were getting sick and dying, but there were good reasons, as Scott pointed out above.  Plus, the unvaccinated were dying at a much higher rate.  Impossible to argue this, though some try.

[placeholder]

56 minutes ago, howerde said:

I was not talking about the over 80s, just pointing out an article about the 

 

The article also stated that vaccinated 70-79 year olds had an even lower death rate than the unvaccinated 70-79 year olds. It said nothing about 50-59 year olds or 60-69 year olds. Some else already pointed out to you that death rate is not the same as total deaths. What don't you understand about that?

 

[Danderman123]

22 hours ago, mommysboy said:

The issue here is the nature of the virus I suppose.  

 

It is clear that the polio and measles vaccines can stop a pandemic in it's tracks, whereas the covid vaccines can't as yet, can they?  Whether you interpret this as anti-vax is your decision, for reasons perhaps only understood by yourself.

 

I am not anti-vax.  Do you doubt that I have had 2 pfizer vaccinations?

 

Apples and pears!  Simple logic.

If the level of vaccination for Covid were as high as for measles, Covid wouldn't be an issue anymore. 

[blackprince]

A couple of days ago I posted a link that explains the increasing numbers of deaths among the vaccinated in the UK. Here's another one.

 

The basic reasoning is not hard to follow:

 

1. vaccination reduces the risk of death but doesn't eliminate it.

2. as more people become vaccinated a growing number of vaccinated people will die.

 

The difference between the actual/real numbers (aka absolute numbers) and the rate is that the rate is adjusted as a percentage or ratio. But not everyone has a background in stats so misunderstandings are not only common but very understandable too.

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-why-its-easy-to-misinterpret-numbers-of-deaths-among-the-vaccinated/

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, blackprince said:

A couple of days ago I posted a link that explains the increasing numbers of deaths among the vaccinated in the UK. Here's another one.

 

The basic reasoning is not hard to follow:

 

1. vaccination reduces the risk of death but doesn't eliminate it.

2. as more people become vaccinated a growing number of vaccinated people will die.

 

The difference between the actual/real numbers (aka absolute numbers) and the rate is that the rate is adjusted as a percentage or ratio. But not everyone has a background in stats so misunderstandings are not only common but very understandable too.

 

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-why-its-easy-to-misinterpret-numbers-of-deaths-among-the-vaccinated/

excellent article!!  From that link:

 

Raw numbers of hospitalizations or deaths among those who are vaccinated are not a good indicator of whether vaccines are effective. If the large majority of a population is vaccinated, it’s not surprising if most deaths are among the vaccinated. But social media posts misuse data from the U.K. to suggest the COVID-19 vaccines don’t work.

---

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

The article specifically says that the death rate for the unvaccinated is higher.

 

1 hour ago, Will B Good said:

Plus the "vaccine paradox"......if the vast majority of over 50's are vaccinated, then the majority of deaths will be in those that are vaccinated.

 

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

It's the same type of misinformation that people were throwing around regarding Israel a few months ago.  Sure, double jabbed people were getting sick and dying, but there were good reasons, as Scott pointed out above.  Plus, the unvaccinated were dying at a much higher rate.  Impossible to argue this, though some try.

Not meant in any way to be a criticism but these posts are flogging a dead horse. None of this information is in any way not perfectly well understood by those posting the false interpretations of the data. It is deliberate. If any person is sufficiently motivated to opine on the subject and provide references then they truly must understand the clear conclusions presented in those articles. They are all posts made in bad faith and for political purposes. You will note that some of them at least claim to be not opposed to vaccinations and are even vaccinated themselves which begs the question of why they wish to cast doubt on the efficacy of the vaccinations. As I have said the motive is purely political and ill intentioned.

 

edit: Patiently explaining the facts to these people is just wasting your time, they need to be called out on their motivations, not their comprehension skills.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

The world is getting smaller and smaller for the unvaccinated.  Luckily.

 

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-europe-austria-health-1188b65ea3d8d80c40e40d3e13aea0a2

Austrian leader says lockdown for the unvaccinated is likely

Assuming they'd have to provide a proper place to live, complete with indoor plumbing and meals, medical, etc, some people might be better off. When people are living in cars or garages, the alternative is upward.