MPC: Thai economy has seen its worst

[snoop1130]

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand has deemed that Thailand’s economy is past its lowest point, and now expects a gradual recovery of economic activities due to the continued relaxation of Covid restriction measures and the reopening of the country to international tourists. Owing to these reasons, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has resolved to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5%.

 

Mr. Piti Disyatat, the BOT Assistant Governor for Monetary Policy Group, said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolved to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% per year, as it viewed that this rate appropriately supported the economic expansion. The MPC also reasoned that the Thai economy was already past its lowest point in Quarter 3, 2021, and was entering a recovery facilitated by the relaxation of Covid restriction measures, the opening of the country to international tourists, and the administering of COVID-19 vaccines to the population. Mr. Piti added that there was continuity in fiscal policy, which will promote a strong recovery of incomes.

 

According to the assistant governor, the Thai economy is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022. Exports are predicted to slow in line with the economic performance of trade partners, while the number of foreign tourists is expected to slowly recover. Headline inflation has a tendency to temporarily increase due to heightened energy prices but will remain within the BOT’s target. Mr. Piti added that increased volatility in the foreign exchange rate – caused by monetary policies in major economies and the uncertainties over Thailand’s economic recovery – meant that SMEs should be encouraged to take action to cover their foreign exchange risk.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2021-11-11

 

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[ThailandRyan]

I think they have miscalculated.  The betting is on tourism to help soften any blows.  However, inflation is starting to rise and unless the tourism sector rebounds strongly I fear that the view it has reached the bottom will evaporate and the real bottoming will be felt.  It is going to be a rocky ride, but with the statements made like this the speculators have jumped onboard and the baht has started to appreciate again with gains over the other monetary funds.........

[zzaa09]

Get away from the illusional dependency of tourism. 

[kevin612]

Something is funny, the baht is rising despite the worst economy.

[RichardColeman]

24 minutes ago, kevin612 said:

Something is funny, the baht is rising despite the worst economy.

Well, the pound is tanking due to the idiots in the BOE not raising interest rates and the economy sluggish due to supply chains (which annoys me as the £ slips against the $ even though the $ has real supply chain issues too). 

 

One can only hope the Thai economy remains sluggish , because if it booms with tourism the demand for the baht may well push my £ lower.

 

 

[jcmj]

It’s gonna be one hell of a roller coaster ride. Brace yourself. 

[hotchilli]

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Bank of Thailand has deemed that Thailand’s economy is past its lowest point,

With minimal tourism coming in and a sharp increase in inflation and prices I don't think so.

[tompelli]

Thai economy: "hold my beer"

[Eric Loh]

36 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

With minimal tourism coming in and a sharp increase in inflation and prices I don't think so.

I do think inflation is transitory due to the global supply disruption and will ease gradually. For Thailand inflation is cost push inflation rather than demand pull inflation. Not too long ago, some were talking about stagnation in Thailand. 

[nobodysfriend]

11 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

I do think inflation is transitory due to the global supply disruption and will ease gradually. For Thailand inflation is cost push inflation rather than demand pull inflation. Not too long ago, some were talking about stagnation in Thailand. 

Inflation is certainly related to the ' low interest rates ' policy . I read in the US , interest rates will rise soon ... others will follow ...

[Pedrogaz]

I wonder if MPC's forecasts are any more accurate than TAT's.

[Eric Loh]

53 minutes ago, nobodysfriend said:

Inflation is certainly related to the ' low interest rates ' policy . I read in the US , interest rates will rise soon ... others will follow ...

Delicate dance for Powell whether to stammer economic recovery and inflation. Depending on individual country economic recovery strength, central banks may not follow US lead on hiking interest rate. IMO Thailand not likely to raise rate as it slowly recover and inflation still within BOT forecast with the exception of energy prices. 

[Daithi85]

Thai baht Like a run away train at the moment ,euro and Gbp are getting smashed.. 

[Isaan sailor]

I beg to differ.  The legendary Teflon Baht seems to go in the wrong direction each day.  Up and up with the currency does not portend a healthy economy.

[nobodysfriend]

30 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

The legendary Teflon Baht seems to go in the wrong direction each day.

Just to say ... I had a lot of problems with the banks in Europe . Credit card cancelled while in Thailand ( they suspected fraud , but there was none ) , HSBC . Life insurance did not pay the promised interest rates , I constantly felt being ripped off by them .

When we definitely moved here , I sold everything I owned in Europe and moved all my money to the SCB .

I have no intention of leaving Thailand , so FX rates do not concern me much , but , if the THB moves up only , it is ok with me , I like it . Thai banks in generally seem to be more trustworthy than others . My personal experience .

One online broker , Flatex , literally stole 3500 Euros from my account and cancelled it afterwards . After i changed my address to Thailand . They knew that I could not do anything to recover the stolen money ... Rip - off .

SCB , NEVER a problem in 25 yrs .

Edited November 12, 2021 by nobodysfriend

[brucegoniners]

That's funny. Trust me, with these guys in charge there is no bottom.

[Zikomat]

“…while the number of foreign tourists is expected to slowly recover”.

 

Whoever talks about any (even slow) recovery in the tourism sector is definitely bluffing. 

[goldenbrwn1]

14 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Something is funny, the baht is rising despite the worst economy.

Tbf Hua Hin did have around 80 tourists this week. 

[John Drake]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

 

 

Now, who wouldn't trust a face like that?

[mahtin]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

Now, who wouldn't trust a face like that?

Not even hiding behind a mask.

[KhruGin]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Bank of Thailand has deemed that Thailand’s economy is past its lowest point

Nope, watch this space. Obviously this man in the pic doesn't get out much to see what's going on on the ground.

[zzaa09]

7 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

I beg to differ.  The legendary Teflon Baht seems to go in the wrong direction each day.  Up and up with the currency does not portend a healthy economy.

Obviously, it's heavily manipulated - as all currencies tend to be for their own advantage and survival. 

What should be more engaging along the lines of uttered silliness are the deluded ideals of comparative monetary worth and value. 

It's all make believe. 

The criminal element that devised this world and the suckers who bought into it. 

[peter zwart]

17 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Well, the pound is tanking due to the idiots in the BOE not raising interest rates and the economy sluggish due to supply chains (which annoys me as the £ slips against the $ even though the $ has real supply chain issues too). 

 

One can only hope the Thai economy remains sluggish , because if it booms with tourism the demand for the baht may well push my £ lower.

 

 

I dont think you have to fear for that as more Covid BS comes around the corner. And with a expensive bath export will also take a hit.

[Saanim]

6 minutes ago, peter zwart said:

I dont think you have to fear for that as more Covid BS comes around the corner. And with a expensive bath export will also take a hit.

"Expensive Bath export"? The Bath is at least 10% better for export, actually lower. 

That means the Thai exporters are getting 10% more Baht than 2 previous years for their prices they quoted - and are paid - in USD, GBP,  EURO, etc. 

And that's what's important for them.

[Saanim]

22 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

Get away from the illusional dependency of tourism. 

So, is it not so that Thailand will collapse if not so many tourists arrive and when some falangs disappointed with local govt leave for Portugal, Spain or wherever?

 

 

[EricTh]

Since it has 'passed the lowest point', you should have increased and not maintain the rate.

[dinsdale]

Ok. Manipulate all possible numbers and this is what happens. I just can't believe it. Covid-19 under control. 100s of thousands of tourist will come never mind that all bars/entertainment are closed. If the egg stinks don't cook it and something stinks here.

[jacko45k]

23 hours ago, hotchilli said:

With minimal tourism coming in and a sharp increase in inflation and prices I don't think so.

Combined with the recent news that the majority of the country's nightlife and bar scene will be forced to remain closed well into the New Year, I think not too!

[Gsxrnz]

My favorite song is by Bachman Turner Overdrive.

 

Yyyyou ain't seen nnnnnnnothing yet.