ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[vinny41]

18 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Because IMHO Toyota are behind a lot of the Anti-EV propaganda, EV’s catch fire, EV’s have range anxiety, EV’s can’t get wet etc etc

 

Their Chairman (CEO until he was fired) is on an anti-EV crusade.

 

They are trying to obfuscate all the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially, eg people like them, they like the acceleration, they like the silence, they like charging at home etc.

 

I don’t think you can underestimate the threat legacy automakers face.

Have you provide evidence of your claims to your EV Supplier and why haven't they taken action against your claims or was it the case that there is no evidence of your claims

[Yellowtail]

39 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Because IMHO Toyota are behind a lot of the Anti-EV propaganda, EV’s catch fire, EV’s have range anxiety, EV’s can’t get wet etc etc

 

Their Chairman (CEO until he was fired) is on an anti-EV crusade.

 

They are trying to obfuscate all the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially, eg people like them, they like the acceleration, they like the silence, they like charging at home etc.

 

I don’t think you can underestimate the threat legacy automakers face.

 

The growth does not seem to be exponential the way that I understand exponential. 

 

"In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. EV sales in the fourth quarter set a record for both volume and share: 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. And while records were set, the oft-reported slowdown is real."

A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com)

"LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) rose 31% in 2023, down from 60% growth in 2022, according to market research firm Rho Motion."

global ev sales growth 2023 - Google Search

 

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

And a number of government's are putting regulations an import tariffs in place to control Chinese EV imports

There is  a 27.5% tariff on importing Chinese-made passenger vehicles to the US and no tax breaks or subsidies

In Turkey new rules and regulations

https://www.seaisi.org/details/23996?type=news-rooms

Türkiye's doors are closed for 27 models: These cars will not be sold in 2024

https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/27-modelde-turkiye-kapisi-kapandi-bu-otomobiller-2024te-satilamayacak-galeri-1665148

Mainly Byd, MG and Neta models

 

 

1 hour ago, BenStark said:

You not sure? I'm sure you read these articles previously, as I have posted them to you before

 

https://jalopnik.com/nio-s-35-000-losses-on-every-car-sold-are-bankrolled-b-1850903388

 

The Chinese Government Is Subsidizing Nio’s $35,000 Loss On Every Car Sold

 

https://www.autoblog.com/2023/10/08/chinas-ev-sector-is-hemorrhaging-cash-and-it-doesnt-matter/

 

China's EV sector is hemorrhaging cash — but government subsidies keep the lights on

One company loses $35,000 per car

 

59 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Have you provide evidence of your claims to your EV Supplier and why haven't they taken action against your claims or was it the case that there is no evidence of your claims

 

32 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

The growth does not seem to be exponential the way that I understand exponential. 

 

"In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. EV sales in the fourth quarter set a record for both volume and share: 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. And while records were set, the oft-reported slowdown is real."

A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book - Cox Automotive Inc. (coxautoinc.com)

"LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) rose 31% in 2023, down from 60% growth in 2022, according to market research firm Rho Motion."

global ev sales growth 2023 - Google Search

 

Firstly, the US is a special case because they don’t have the Chinese EV’s there to any significant representation. They are also applying tariff’s to skew the market.

 

It’s more representational to look at countries that don’t apply tariffs, eg Thailand. Growth here is exponential, of course it will tail off with market saturation and availability, eg pickup trucks.

 

Regarding anti-EV propaganda, I don‘t have anything other than anecdotal evidence (posts about Toyota having revolutionary technology that will destroy the EV industry when it’s nothing more than the changes made to a petrol engine to enable it to run on CNG et al). I was careful to say it’s my humble opinion.  We are seeing websites like lagradaonline pop up and in the course of their first week around 10 anti-EV articles, someone with motive is behind it.  It was the type of thing Russia and Cambridge Analytics did in the trump election

 

Regarding Nio, they are an unusual case because they can be classed more of a startup then an established manufacturer, their sales volumes are tiny. It reminds me of fake it till you make it.  BYD are immensely profitable with much higher margins than Tesla mostly because they manufacture most of what they need in house eg semiconductors and plastics.

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

This guy is a dinosaur and his position has changed from EV’s will fail to EV’s will have a maximum 30% market share.

 

IMHO he is still wrong.

 

Toyota are crapping themselves because their manufacturing cost of an EV is higher than the price Chinese EV’s are being retailed.  It’s even worse because Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers have sorted out their supply chains for batteries and lithium and there’s insufficient left to support them.

Personally I think he is correct EV's will never have more than a third of the market

In Japan

Fossil fuels accounted for 72% of Japan’s electricity generation in 2021, a significant decrease from 89% share it accounted for in 2012. Nuclear and non-hydro renewables, specifically solar, have been the main sources replacing fossil fuels in Japan’s generation mix. The share of non-hydro renewables was the fastest-growing generation source, growing from under 3% in 2012 to 13% in 2021. Nuclear power’s share increased from under 2% to 6% over the same period.19

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/JPN

 

Can't see many classic car owner's giving up their classic cars for EV

Limited solution's available for people that have no access to  charging facilities

Limited solution available for commercial vehicles that have to carry huge loads and travel long distances

I think EV's growth will go the same way as Betamax went in the betamax vs vhs war

The US has had a  25 percent tariff on imported light-trucks since 1964 known as the Chicken Tax and Thailand has always had huge import tariffs on vehicles entering the Thai market 

 

[Yellowtail]

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Firstly, the US is a special case because they don’t have the Chinese EV’s there to any significant representation. They are also applying tariff’s to skew the market.

Did you not notice the second link showing that world sales growth for EVs in 2023 was about half what it was in in 2022? 

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

It’s more representational to look at countries that don’t apply tariffs, eg Thailand. Growth here is exponential, of course it will tail off with market saturation and availability, eg pickup trucks.

Thailand does not apply tariffs? So why does a top-spec Posche 911 cost $760,000 in Thailand, but $187K in the US? 

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Regarding anti-EV propaganda, I don‘t have anything other than anecdotal evidence (posts about Toyota having revolutionary technology that will destroy the EV industry when it’s nothing more than the changes made to a petrol engine to enable it to run on CNG et al). I was careful to say it’s my humble opinion.  We are seeing websites like lagradaonline pop up and in the course of their first week around 10 anti-EV articles, someone with motive is behind it.  It was the type of thing Russia and Cambridge Analytics did in the trump election

Seems like very little upside for such a catastrophic down-side potential for Toyota to be involved in something like this. 

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Regarding Nio, they are an unusual case because they can be classed more of a startup then an established manufacturer, their sales volumes are tiny. It reminds me of fake it till you make it.  BYD are immensely profitable with much higher margins than Tesla mostly because they manufacture most of what they need in house eg semiconductors and plastics.

That employees earn considerably more, state and federal workplace safety standards have to be met, state and federal environmental standards have to be complied with, and they develop their own technology may have something to do with Tesla's smaller margins.

 

 

 

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

Because IMHO Toyota are behind a lot of the Anti-EV propaganda, EV’s catch fire, EV’s have range anxiety, EV’s can’t get wet etc etc

 

Their Chairman (CEO until he was fired) is on an anti-EV crusade.

 

They are trying to obfuscate all the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially, eg people like them, they like the acceleration, they like the silence, they like charging at home etc.

 

I don’t think you can underestimate the threat legacy automakers face.

you list all the the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially yet we all know that not everyone has the facilities to charge at home and no mention of the environment in your list of reasons

I think you will find that Toyota had to add an artificial engine noise to their hybrid  Prius to alert pedestrians of an approaching vehicle 

[JBChiangRai]

6 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Personally I think he is correct EV's will never have more than a third of the market

In Japan

Fossil fuels accounted for 72% of Japan’s electricity generation in 2021, a significant decrease from 89% share it accounted for in 2012. Nuclear and non-hydro renewables, specifically solar, have been the main sources replacing fossil fuels in Japan’s generation mix. The share of non-hydro renewables was the fastest-growing generation source, growing from under 3% in 2012 to 13% in 2021. Nuclear power’s share increased from under 2% to 6% over the same period.19

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/JPN

 

Can't see many classic car owner's giving up their classic cars for EV

Limited solution's available for people that have no access to  charging facilities

Limited solution available for commercial vehicles that have to carry huge loads and travel long distances

I think EV's growth will go the same way as Betamax went in the betamax vs vhs war

 

 

It's going to be a very long time before we know who is right, you or me.

 

Most countries (Thailand included) are replacing their fossil generation with EV with renewables as fast as they can. I am not sure about China.

 

I have had a few classic cars, I would convert them to EV in a heartbeat if I still had them and if I was in a country with a thriving EV conversion process, like the UK. I've had too many problems with classic car engines.

 

The challenge is charging facilities for a lot of the population and for commercial vehicles, though I do think they may go Hydrogen too, let's see how well Tesla's semi sells, if and when it gets to market.

I am certain EV's are here to stay, but I do see a multi-tier market, BEV's, Hydrogen fuel cells, Hydrogen ICE, biopetrol (this is Porsche's preferred route for the 911 model only, all other models they are committed to BEV).

 

BEV's success is going to be entirely down to how well they compare in price to ICEV, if all we get are offerings like Toyota's bZ4x then they will fail.  If we get Chinese and Tesla competing with the Chinese, then they will succeed.

[JBChiangRai]

39 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Did you not notice the second link showing that world sales growth for EVs in 2023 was about half what it was in in 2022? 

Thailand does not apply tariffs? So why does a top-spec Posche 911 cost $760,000 in Thailand, but $187K in the US? 

Seems like very little upside for such a catastrophic down-side potential for Toyota to be involved in something like this. 

That employees earn considerably more, state and federal workplace safety standards have to be met, state and federal environmental standards have to be complied with, and they develop their own technology may have something to do with Tesla's smaller margins.

 

 

 

 

Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics.  according to The Global Electric Vehicle Market In 2023 – Virta global EV sales are up 40% in 2023 (a prediction made late in the year).

 

Deloitte are forecasting in excess of 40% of vehicle sales will be Ev's by 2030, compare that with Toyoda who was wrong before. They forecast that 4 years ago and interestingly, their forecast for 2023 was bang on. Electric vehicle trends | Deloitte Insights

 

Goldman Sachs are forecasting 50% of all vehicle sales by 2035 will be EV's.  Toyota I believe are wrong and scaremongering to protect their legacy business. The EU is expected to be at 100% of new vehicle sales being EV by then.

 

 

 

26 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

you list all the the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially yet we all know that not everyone has the facilities to charge at home and no mention of the environment in your list of reasons

I think you will find that Toyota had to add an artificial engine noise to their hybrid  Prius to alert pedestrians of an approaching vehicle 

 

I think all BEV's have an artificial noise that fades out at 20-30km/h, you can turn it off on some vehicles like BYD on others you can't. The Prius doesn't use an artificial engine noise, they use alternating low and high tones to warn pedestrians it's there because it is silent.

[JBChiangRai]

I didn't answer your question on tariffs in Thailand.  Yes they do apply tariff's on imported vehicles, but less so on Chinese EV's if you comply with their option of making vehicles here for both the domestic market and export.

 

They are not trying to penalise China's EV's, they are being very enlightened in my opinion, they want to protect their vehicle manufacturing base and not lose it to other Asian countries.  

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the EU and UK.

[Yellowtail]

13 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics.  according to The Global Electric Vehicle Market In 2023 – Virta global EV sales are up 40% in 2023 (a prediction made late in the year).

So, if what you say is true, sales growth is down about 33%, yes? 

 

Again, I am not arguing that sales of EVs are not increasing, but claiming sales growth is exponential is just not true. 

 

13 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Deloitte are forecasting in excess of 40% of vehicle sales will be Ev's by 2030, compare that with Toyoda who was wrong before. They forecast that 4 years ago and interestingly, their forecast for 2023 was bang on. Electric vehicle trends | Deloitte Insights

 

Goldman Sachs are forecasting 50% of all vehicle sales by 2035 will be EV's.  Toyota I believe are wrong and scaremongering to protect their legacy business. The EU is expected to be at 100% of new vehicle sales being EV by then.

Do you think that governments like California, the largest market in the largest market mandating that all new cars sold in the state are EVs by 2035 or the Biden administration proposing a mandate that 66% of all new vehicles in the world's largest market be electric by 2032 has anything to do with those projections? 

13 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I think all BEV's have an artificial noise that fades out at 20-30km/h, you can turn it off on some vehicles like BYD on others you can't. The Prius doesn't use an artificial engine noise, they use alternating low and high tones to warn pedestrians it's there because it is silent.

I think some of the noise is to cover the tire noise in the cabin as well.  

 

[Yellowtail]

23 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I didn't answer your question on tariffs in Thailand.  Yes they do apply tariff's on imported vehicles, but less so on Chinese EV's if you comply with their option of making vehicles here for both the domestic market and export.

 

They are not trying to penalise China's EV's, they are being very enlightened in my opinion, they want to protect their vehicle manufacturing base and not lose it to other Asian countries.  

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the EU and UK.

I think it safe to say that is one could buy a Porsche, a BMW, or Mercedes for less than THB2M, they might be selling more of them as well. 

 

I think you implied that tariffs were the reason Chinese EV sales were not more robust in the US because of the 25% tariffs. Does that seem reasonable? 

 

Say an imported Chinese EV sells for THB 1,000,000 ($28K) in Thailand and the manufacturer has a margin of 20%.

 

7% of that million is VAT, so say THB 970K, so accounting for the manufacturer's margin, the landed cost in Thailand is about THB 776K

 

With the 25% duty, the landed cost in the US in would be about THB 970K ($27.3K), plus one or two hundred in additional freight. How is it they can't compete? 

 

They could also set up plants in the US and pay no duty, but then they would have to pay more in wages and to meet safety and environmental regulations. 

 

 

 

 

[Pib]

7 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

EVs might not be the future after all and China might be betting on the wrong technology for their EV industry. 
https://lagradaonline.com/en/bmw-hydrogen-engines
https://lagradaonline.com/en/gm-honda-hydrogen-engines

Very little fueling infrastructure.  In the U.S. California has a few dozen around the LA and SF areas...Canada has a couple.  Europe has approx 200.   Thailand has one...and it just came online Jan 2024 in the Chonburi area....and it's more for limted testing purposes....see this 29 Jan 2024 The Nation article.    Lot's of challenges ahead for hydrogen cars to reach the masses...with extremely little fueling infrastructure being a BIG obstacle. 

 

Will hydrogen cars come with a home fuel dispenser similar to a  wallcharger for EVs?  

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, Pib said:

Very little fueling infrastructure.  In the U.S. California has a few dozen around the LA and SF areas...Canada has a couple.  Europe has approx 200.   Thailand has one...and it just came online Jan 2024 in the Chonburi area....and it's more for limted testing purposes....see this 29 Jan 2024 The Nation article.    Lot's of challenges ahead for hydrogen cars to reach the masses...with extremely little fueling infrastructure being a BIG obstacle. 

 

Will hydrogen cars come with a home fuel dispenser similar to a  wallcharger for EVs?  

Yet a much larger percentage of Americans have garages or carports with electricity, which would make it easy for them to charge at home. 

 

I think the cost of electricity in the US is significantly higher as well, but it has been a long time since I saw a bill. Looks like California is $0.33 (THB11.75) compared to what, THB5 to 6 in Thailand? So it cost you twice as much to charge, yet gasoline prices are pretty similar. Diesel price is significantly lower in Thailand. 

 

Large vehicles are much more popular in the US and the roads and parking and what not are a lot better equipped to handle them. 

 

[Pib]

 

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now-almost-14-times-more-expensive-to-drive-a-toyota-hydrogen-car-in-california-than-a-comparable-tesla-ev/2-1-1519315

 

[Yellowtail]

28 minutes ago, Pib said:

Very little fueling infrastructure.  In the U.S. California has a few dozen around the LA and SF areas...

Dozens? That's hilarious. Where do you guys hear this stuff? 

 

Apparently, there are 93,855 EV charging stations in California, including 41,384 public EV charge stations and 52,471 shared private EV charge stations, and most of them are in and around Los Angeles and San Fransisco. 

 

Electric Vehicle Chargers in California

[Pib]

Just now, Yellowtail said:

Dozens? That's hilarious. Where do you guys hear this stuff? 

 

Apparently, there are 93,855 EV charging stations in California, including 41,384 public EV charge stations and 52,471 shared private EV charge stations, and most of them are in and around Los Angeles and San Fransisco. 

 

Electric Vehicle Chargers in California

 

I was talking "hydrogen fueling stations"; not EV chargers.

[BenStark]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

Regarding anti-EV propaganda, I don‘t have anything other than anecdotal evidence (posts about Toyota having revolutionary technology that will destroy the EV industry when it’s nothing more than the changes made to a petrol engine to enable it to run on CNG et al).

 

Maybe try to inform yourself better or lay of those blinkers.

 

https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/12/06/bmw-toyota-developing-hydrogen-powered-vehicles/

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, Pib said:

 

I was talking "hydrogen fueling stations"; not EV chargers.

Sorry, my bad. 

[vinny41]

This is from Honda India CEO

However, despite this continued push towards passenger FCEVs, Inoue admitted that a better bet for hydrogen-fuelled transport in the short term would be commercial vehicles.

“Think about it: the fuel cell business comes from commercial vehicles first, then it’s coming to passenger vehicles,” he said. “The commercial vehicle business is going to start earlier — we’ve already started in China and some other countries — but it comes to passenger vehicles later, not now.”

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-are-the-next-phase-after-battery-electric-vehicles-honda/2-1-1583947

 

Commercial vehicles 1st then passenger vehicles 

[In the jungle]

I was watching a video that the Electric Viking put up today about the Evergrande bankruptcy.

 

In that video Sam states that Evergrande's EV business lost US$17 million for every EV it sold.

[JBChiangRai]

12 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

So, if what you say is true, sales growth is down about 33%, yes? 

 

Again, I am not arguing that sales of EVs are not increasing, but claiming sales growth is exponential is just not true. 

 

Do you think that governments like California, the largest market in the largest market mandating that all new cars sold in the state are EVs by 2035 or the Biden administration proposing a mandate that 66% of all new vehicles in the world's largest market be electric by 2032 has anything to do with those projections? 

I think some of the noise is to cover the tire noise in the cabin as well.  

 

 

Agreed, exponential is not the right word, ever increasing market share is a better description.

 

11 hours ago, Pib said:

 

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now-almost-14-times-more-expensive-to-drive-a-toyota-hydrogen-car-in-california-than-a-comparable-tesla-ev/2-1-1519315

 

11 hours ago, BenStark said:

 

Maybe try to inform yourself better or lay of those blinkers.

 

https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2022/12/06/bmw-toyota-developing-hydrogen-powered-vehicles/

 

Your posts about EV, confirm you are ignorant on this subject.  I am absolutely certain I am far better informed than you are, and I stand by my opinion. You are the one with blinkers.

 

All auto manufacturers will develop Hydrogen vehicles for markets where Electric is unsuitable and for some commercial vehicles.  They may also develop them due to lack of availability of raw materials for BEV's.  What they won't do is replace BEV for reasons I explained in my earlier post (cost) as already seen via Pib's post above about Hydrogen prices in California.  Whilst 14 times more expensive is largely due to scarcity and lack of economies of scale, it will always be at least 5 times more expensive per kilometer for a Hydrogen car compared to a BEV. Market dynamics will dictate the rest, where a BEV is available, which do you want, the car that's cheap to run or the one that costs 5 times more?

 

9 hours ago, vinny41 said:

This is from Honda India CEO

However, despite this continued push towards passenger FCEVs, Inoue admitted that a better bet for hydrogen-fuelled transport in the short term would be commercial vehicles.

“Think about it: the fuel cell business comes from commercial vehicles first, then it’s coming to passenger vehicles,” he said. “The commercial vehicle business is going to start earlier — we’ve already started in China and some other countries — but it comes to passenger vehicles later, not now.”

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-are-the-next-phase-after-battery-electric-vehicles-honda/2-1-1583947

 

Commercial vehicles 1st then passenger vehicles 

 

see above

[KhunLA]

 

[vinny41]

Renault scraps listing of ‘Tesla rival’ amid slump in EV demand

Car giant Renault has scrapped plans to list its electric vehicle business on the stock market amid slowing demand and a lack of investor appetite.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/29/renault-scraps-listing-tesla-rival-ampere-slump-ev-demand/

 

In mainland China, passenger EV sales growth fell to 28% in the third quarter of 2023, from 108% in the same period a year earlier, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data quoted by Fitch Ratings.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/chinas-ev-stocks-start-2024-in-reverse-gear-as-price-wars-pressure-profitability.html#:~:text=A continuing price war and,said Morgan Stanley on Wednesday.

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

The Compound Annual Growth Rate in China is expected to be 17.5% per year over the next 5 years.

 

China expects sales of 22 million EV's this year.

 

You have to remember treble digit percentage growth is not sustainable as the market matures.  What's important to note is whether the market is growing, static or declining.  China's market is growing and expected to do so over the next 5 years.

 

China EV Market - Size, Growth & Industry Share (mordorintelligence.com)

 

EV's are expected to get significantly cheaper this year as battery prices drop by a third this year.

 

Interestingly, guess which batteries go in Toyota's bZ4x?  if you guessed BYD you would be right.  Toyota has no capacity to go EV.

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

The Compound Annual Growth Rate in China is expected to be 17.5% per year over the next 5 years.

 

China expects sales of 22 million EV's this year.

 

You have to remember treble digit percentage growth is not sustainable as the market matures.  What's important to note is whether the market is growing, static or declining.  China's market is growing and expected to do so over the next 5 years.

 

China EV Market - Size, Growth & Industry Share (mordorintelligence.com)

 

EV's are expected to get significantly cheaper this year as battery prices drop by a third this year.

 

Interestingly, guess which batteries go in Toyota's bZ4x?  if you guessed BYD you would be right.  Toyota has no capacity to go EV.

Does China include two and three wheeled EVs in the numbers? 

[Yellowtail]

24 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

 

What prediction did he make? 

[KhunLA]

14 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

What prediction did he make? 

You could always watch the vid, maybe the 1st minute or less, actually 30 secs.

 

2014 predicted battery prices would fall to $50 ish kWh,  by 2027, and all thought he was nuts.  It will probably hit that this year.

 

Then vid simply goes into the why.  Screenshot for you, of his prediction and why it did appear unrealistic, at the time.:

 

Another take away from the vid, along with the price drop, since a large part of BEVs, they will soon be selling for less than ICEVs, though that has happened already, as far  as I'm concerned.

 

Value and out performance, with low maintenance & operating cost, and there's not much need for ICEVs in the future.  Personal cars anyway.

 

... IMHO

 

 

[vinny41]

19 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

The Compound Annual Growth Rate in China is expected to be 17.5% per year over the next 5 years.

 

China expects sales of 22 million EV's this year.

 

You have to remember treble digit percentage growth is not sustainable as the market matures.  What's important to note is whether the market is growing, static or declining.  China's market is growing and expected to do so over the next 5 years.

 

China EV Market - Size, Growth & Industry Share (mordorintelligence.com)

 

EV's are expected to get significantly cheaper this year as battery prices drop by a third this year.

 

Interestingly, guess which batteries go in Toyota's bZ4x?  if you guessed BYD you would be right.  Toyota has no capacity to go EV.

 

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

You could always watch the vid, maybe the 1st minute or less, actually 30 secs.

 

2014 predicted battery prices would fall to $50 ish kWh,  by 2027, and all thought he was nuts.  It will probably hit that this year.

 

Then vid simply goes into the why.  Screenshot for you:

 

 

Both posts seem to indicate the old  adage  early adopters pay the price  

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

You could always watch the vid, maybe the 1st minute or less, actually 30 secs.

 

2014 predicted battery prices would fall to $50 ish kWh,  by 2027, and all thought he was nuts.  It will probably hit that this year.

 

Then vid simply goes into the why.  Screenshot for you, of his prediction and why it did appear unrealistic, at the time.:

 

Another take away from the vid, along with the price drop, since a large part of BEVs, they will soon be selling for less than ICEVs, though that has happened already, as far  as I'm concerned.

 

Value and out performance, with low maintenance & operating cost, that's not much need for ICEVs in the future.  Personal cars anyway.

 

 

 

Thank you. I opened the video, but it was ten minutes long. I try not to do not watch or read anything linked where a summary is not provided and or position taken. 

[KhunLA]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

 

Thank you. I opened the video, but it was ten minutes long. I try not to do not watch or read anything linked where a summary is not provided and or position taken. 

That's fairly obvious ... 

 

... you can't leave that door open without me walking though