Jingthing Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 4 hours ago, pixelaoffy said: Like when hell freezes over Some are still waiting.
jacko45k Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 12 hours ago, Lacessit said: I'd say that is getting close to defaulting. Sometimes, other countries step in to prevent default. Mexico and Greece are examples. The only country I can see who would do that for Russia is China, and they would want more than a pound of flesh in return. Defaults trash individual investors, pension funds, and bondholders. That makes for a lot of angry people. Do you suspect they would give up land to the East to enable them to 'reclaim' land to the West?... Interesting thought!
Lacessit Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, jacko45k said: Do you suspect they would give up land to the East to enable them to 'reclaim' land to the West?... Interesting thought! I doubt it. As Sir Lauren van der Post said, Russians are only one step above being a collection of tribes. Because they were kept on the run for centuries by Tartar and Mongol invasions, they have never developed democracy as Western civilizations have. Due to those invasions, the Russian psyche is far more wary of the East than the West, where they have always given as good as they got. Until now, perhaps. IMO a quick victory and impotent West was the expectation. Sorry, off topic. 2
sandyf Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 16 hours ago, Lacessit said: You may be right, but that does not explain why the Russian official interest rate is now 20%. The central bank has been blocked from using forex to prop up the ruble, so perhaps the other payment systems you mention are also under sanction. Raising interest rates is always the first tool used in protecting a currency, an attempt to deter withdrawals. There is little doubt that sanctions will hurt but unlikely that Russia did not take this into account before proceeding. It should be borne in mind the financial restrictions are not a one way effect. Exclusion from SWIFT is a much blunter weapon. It doesn’t on its own prevent foreign banks from dealing with their Russian counterparts, but it does severely impair the Russian banks’ ability to exchange any payment instructions whatsoever with thousands of SWIFT-connected institutions in more than 200 countries. To some extent, Russia has prepared for this by setting up its own messaging system and trying to link up with China. Russian banks can also attempt to transmit payment instructions by phone or fax. But such workarounds can’t support anywhere near their current volumes of business. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk
Lacessit Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 36 minutes ago, sandyf said: Raising interest rates is always the first tool used in protecting a currency, an attempt to deter withdrawals. There is little doubt that sanctions will hurt but unlikely that Russia did not take this into account before proceeding. It should be borne in mind the financial restrictions are not a one way effect. Exclusion from SWIFT is a much blunter weapon. It doesn’t on its own prevent foreign banks from dealing with their Russian counterparts, but it does severely impair the Russian banks’ ability to exchange any payment instructions whatsoever with thousands of SWIFT-connected institutions in more than 200 countries. To some extent, Russia has prepared for this by setting up its own messaging system and trying to link up with China. Russian banks can also attempt to transmit payment instructions by phone or fax. But such workarounds can’t support anywhere near their current volumes of business. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk Conducting transactions in bitcoin would be another option, although Russia would have to liquidate its foreign exchange and precious metals in order to do so. The ruble would not buy many. It could be a longer term solution. If I was a gambler ( I'm not ) a punt on bitcoin could reap huge dividends. The irony of bitcoin is a system created to free currency from government interference, may end up sustaining one of the most autocratic and interfering governments of them all.
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, sandyf said: Raising interest rates is always the first tool used in protecting a currency, an attempt to deter withdrawals. There is little doubt that sanctions will hurt but unlikely that Russia did not take this into account before proceeding. It should be borne in mind the financial restrictions are not a one way effect. Exclusion from SWIFT is a much blunter weapon. It doesn’t on its own prevent foreign banks from dealing with their Russian counterparts, but it does severely impair the Russian banks’ ability to exchange any payment instructions whatsoever with thousands of SWIFT-connected institutions in more than 200 countries. To some extent, Russia has prepared for this by setting up its own messaging system and trying to link up with China. Russian banks can also attempt to transmit payment instructions by phone or fax. But such workarounds can’t support anywhere near their current volumes of business. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk Doubling interest rates is unlikely to work, those with mortgages will just give up paying, happened in UK during the ERM mess, market lost confidence in the currency so rate made no difference, same ruble most likely
KhunBENQ Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) And the Ruble does not crash further/implode. Read an article explaining why. And the still ongoing oil/gas business is a main factor. The companies have to change their foreign currency to Rubles at the central bank. Adding to that there are regulations to forbid currency transfers abroad. Today Ruble slightly higher, Euro steep down. Not fun Don't even think what will happen if oil/gas is stopped. Edited March 3, 2022 by KhunBENQ
stigar Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 15.000 russian tourists stucked in the dominician replublic...cant go anywhere now.I guess many will be stucked in thailand too. Kommer seg ikke hjem_ - 15 000 russere strandfast.mhtml Edited March 3, 2022 by stigar 1
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Ruble dropped again, maybe they've run out of reserves 2
sandyf Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 5 hours ago, scubascuba3 said: Doubling interest rates is unlikely to work, those with mortgages will just give up paying, happened in UK during the ERM mess, market lost confidence in the currency so rate made no difference, same ruble most likely Increasing interest rates in a crisis has nothing to with borrowers, it is all about investors. If people are planning to bale out at 10%, 20% may not make a lot of difference. I am from the UK and bought my first house in 1976 with interest at around 9%, within 5 years it had hit the all time high of 18.6%, my son cringes every time I mention it. 1
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, sandyf said: Increasing interest rates in a crisis has nothing to with borrowers, it is all about investors. If people are planning to bale out at 10%, 20% may not make a lot of difference. I am from the UK and bought my first house in 1976 with interest at around 9%, within 5 years it had hit the all time high of 18.6%, my son cringes every time I mention it. of course it effects borrowers, there was an article in the last couple days where a Russian guy said he couldn't pay his mortgage now it's increased to 20%. In the UK i doubt people could afford their mortgage doubling
sandyf Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said: of course it effects borrowers, there was an article in the last couple days where a Russian guy said he couldn't pay his mortgage now it's increased to 20%. In the UK i doubt people could afford their mortgage doubling Why can't people stay in context, I said that raising interest had nothing to do with borrowers. Of course it will "affect" borrowers but that is not the aim, they are nothing but collateral damage. The sole aim of increasing interest rates is to make investment more attractive. I bought mu first house, in the UK, in 1976, with interest around 9%. Within 5 years it had hit the all time high of 18.6%, you have to do what it takes such as a loss on the sale.
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, sandyf said: Why can't people stay in context, I said that raising interest had nothing to do with borrowers. Of course it will "affect" borrowers but that is not the aim, they are nothing but collateral damage. The sole aim of increasing interest rates is to make investment more attractive. I bought mu first house, in the UK, in 1976, with interest around 9%. Within 5 years it had hit the all time high of 18.6%, you have to do what it takes such as a loss on the sale. why do people state the obvious, we're not interested in 1976. Interest rates doubling are not about just the aim but the impact, if it doesn't interest you don't comment
Mavideol Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Lacessit said: Conducting transactions in bitcoin would be another option, although Russia would have to liquidate its foreign exchange and precious metals in order to do so. The ruble would not buy many. It could be a longer term solution. If I was a gambler ( I'm not ) a punt on bitcoin could reap huge dividends. The irony of bitcoin is a system created to free currency from government interference, may end up sustaining one of the most autocratic and interfering governments of them all. the EU is already on it https://www.xm.com/research/markets/cryptocurrencies/reuters/eu-to-make-sure-russia-cannot-circumvent-sanctions-with-crypto-assets-le-maire-46865479 Reuters EU to make sure Russia cannot circumvent sanctions with crypto assets -Le Maire Mar 2, 2022 at 7:30 pm GMT BRUSSELS, March 2 (Reuters) - The European Union is seeking to make sure that crypto currencies are not used to circumvent sanctions imposed by the bloc against Russia, French Finance Minister Bruno le Maire said on Wednesday.
fdsa Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Mavideol said: The European Union is seeking to make sure that crypto currencies are not used to circumvent sanctions LOL. If I had spare moneys I'd buy Monero and Bitcoin now. Edited March 3, 2022 by fdsa
aussiexpat Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Saw many Russians and Ukranians at immigration today getting their extensions (passports gave them away)...so they still have 1900 baht...
RafPinto Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 At Lotussss, a roll of Rubel is now cheaper than toilet paper. 2
stigar Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) The russian tycons have lost 98% of their values in london stockexchange.I hope these mafia gangsters loose it all.Germany take arrest in tycons boat.Worth 600 million US.Putin have really helping his friends...they loose it all.And thailand open for paying with bitcoins.As expeced. Edited March 3, 2022 by stigar 1 1
RafPinto Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Earlier at 7/11 (joke). A russian trillionaire asked for a few sausages to be heated and a small bottle of beer. She: 89Baht ka. He: can i pay in Rubel, the leading world currency. She: let me check She: Oh no, can not, it's 45 Million ruble for 1 baht Can not 1
Mac Mickmanus Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, stigar said: The russian tycons have lost 98% of their values in london stockexchange.I hope these mafia gangsters loose it all.Germany take arrest in tycons boat.Worth 600 million US.Putin have really helping his friends...they loose it all.And thailand open for paying with bitcoins.As expeced. Not quite correct actually . Russian companies may have lost 98 % of their worth on the London stock exchange , but those stocks were held by the investors who bought the stocks and not necessarily by the Russian tycoons (although they may have owned some stocks) who owned the Companies
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said: Not quite correct actually . Russian companies may have lost 98 % of their worth on the London stock exchange , but those stocks were held by the investors who bought the stocks and not necessarily by the Russian tycoons (although they may have owned some stocks) who owned the Companies Yep, i know investment funds and pension funds in the west will hold those stocks. Most people wouldn't even know Edited March 3, 2022 by scubascuba3
2ndhomepattaya Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 Just as well Russians stay home it seems.................. Russia's central bank has slapped a 30% commission on FX currency purchases by individuals 1
aussiexpat Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) So why has every country gone lower today against the Thai baht? (except the Ruble which stays N/A) Edited March 3, 2022 by aussiexpat
Maestro Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 10 hours ago, scubascuba3 said: Ruble dropped again, maybe they've run out of reserves What app is it that you are using? I may want to install it on my phone, too.
scubascuba3 Posted March 3, 2022 Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Maestro said: What app is it that you are using? I may want to install it on my phone, too. Investing.com app, you can set up a watchlist and have that as a widget on your phone Edited March 3, 2022 by scubascuba3
sandyf Posted March 4, 2022 Posted March 4, 2022 16 hours ago, scubascuba3 said: why do people state the obvious, we're not interested in 1976. Interest rates doubling are not about just the aim but the impact, if it doesn't interest you don't comment Your words "Doubling interest rates is unlikely to work, those with mortgages will just give up paying, happened in UK during the ERM mess, market lost confidence in the currency so rate made no difference, same ruble most likely" Obviously a gross misunderstanding on why central banks raise interest rates during a currency crisis. But you are free to believe it is intended to penalise borrowers.
scubascuba3 Posted March 4, 2022 Posted March 4, 2022 41 minutes ago, sandyf said: Your words "Doubling interest rates is unlikely to work, those with mortgages will just give up paying, happened in UK during the ERM mess, market lost confidence in the currency so rate made no difference, same ruble most likely" Obviously a gross misunderstanding on why central banks raise interest rates during a currency crisis. But you are free to believe it is intended to penalise borrowers. Totally over your head, of course they don't increase interest rates to penalise borrowers
LarrySR Posted March 4, 2022 Posted March 4, 2022 No doubt some Russians in Thailand would like to unload a condo about now. 1
Banana7 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Posted March 4, 2022 Now there are reports that 27,000 Russian tourists are stranded throughout the world due their flights back to Russia being canceled because Russian owned or operated aircraft have been banned from EU, Canadian, USA airspace. About 17,000 Russians are stranded in Dominican Republic, because of no flights and some are running out of money or credit cards no longer working.
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