Can Thailand really afford to stop exporting to Russia?

[webfact]

With European leaders, NATO, and the US President demanding sanctions against Russia, how does that leave several Asian countries, who are close to Moscow?

In the past Thailand has been classified as both a Third World and First World Country.

However, Thailand is now classified as a developing nation by a large number of international organizations, which look at a number of factors such as the economy, Human Development Index (the HDI), as part of their classifications.

Among the number of industries that Thailand has, the main ones that largely contribute to the growth of the economy are Tourism, Agriculture, Export and Electronics. In Thailand, tourism has been the main driver of economic growth, contributing about 15% of the GDP.

Thai exports

Thailand’s Exports to Russia was US$719.33 Million during 2020, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. 

The main products that Thailand exported to Russia were Cars ($173M), Vehicle Parts ($83.9M), and Rubber Tires ($73M).

Thailand’s major export partners are China (12 percent), Japan (10 percent), the United States (10 percent) and the European Union (9.5 percent). Others include Malaysia, Australia, and Singapore.

Russia’s main imports are machinery, equipment, and transport (45 percent of total imports), chemical products (19 percent) and foodstuffs and agricultural products (14.5 percent).

Bilateral trade conference 2021

Bangkok News back in October 2021 reported that Thailand and Russia have agreed to raise bilateral trade to US$10 billion in 2023, in part to help reboot the economy after the Covid-19 outbreak.

Speaking after a video conference with Vladimir Ilichev, Russia's deputy minister of the Economic Development Ministry, during the fourth meeting of the sub commission on trade and economic cooperation hosted by Russia, Thailand’s Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said the two parties aim to raise two-way trade to $10 billion in 2023 or an average of $3 billion a year.

Russia was Thailand's 30th-largest trading partner in 2020, with two-way trade amounting to $3.13 billion. Thai exports to Russia totalled $958 million, with key export items including automobiles, parts, and rubber, while imports accounted for $2.17 billion, led by crude oil, steel, arms, and fertiliser.

Now as China is Thailand’s number one customer in regard to Thai exports, and as we know China is also close to Russia, this could leave the Thai government in a difficult position.

Especially when President Biden’s aides call the Thai Prime Minister to ask Thailand to join the global export blockade of Russia.

U.S. goods imports from Thailand totaled $37.6 billion in 2020, up 12.5 percent ($4.2 billion) from 2019, and up 66 percent from 2010. 

 

U.S. imports from Thailand account for 1.6 percent of overall U.S. imports in 2020.

 

The Thai government has a delicate balancing act to consider, financial against morals.

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2022-02-28

 

- Aetna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

Get your business in front of millions of customers who read ASEAN NOW with an interest in Thailand every month - email [email protected] for more information

[RichardColeman]

I would imagine the unanswered questions would be 

 

1. How will they pay ? 

2. Will they want Thai products if the rouble hits rock bottom and the Teflon baht rises madly ?

[Guest Isaanlife]

Ruble won't be worth anything the way it is going and Russia won't be able to afford imports.

 

How about all the Russians living in Thailand working online and getting paid in rubles?

 

They are in for a rude awakening.

[Henryford]

Finance against morals ha ha. Thailand will take $$$ in a heartbeat.

[bkk6060]

Sure,  they will figure out a way to do it.

[ezzra]

It has a lot more to do with where's Thailand's alliance lays then dollar and cents.. should Thailand will not tow the line of condemnations wit the rest of the world there will be a price to pay, so its all comes down to politics and Thailand's place and positioning in the world's community....

[Caldera]

An easy way out might be that Russia can no longer pay for whatever Thailand might want to export.

[mtls2005]

Thailand trades with North Korea, why would they stop trading with Russia.

 

And now with Saudi Arabia back on the stove it's a trifecta.

 

 

[BE88]

Suddenly canceling all Russian tourists and consequently Chinese tourists will soon be the death blow for tourism in Thailand.

[hotandsticky]

1 minute ago, BE88 said:

Suddenly canceling all Russian tourists and consequently Chinese tourists will soon be the death blow for tourism in Thailand.

 

 

It will be brilliant!.......bring it on.

[worgeordie]

Another source of tourists lost , they will now have to

try and lure Saudis' ,and TAT ever hopeful are expecting

a Million to arrive soon ........hopefully.

regards worgeordie 

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

It has a lot more to do with where's Thailand's alliance lays then dollar and cents..

considering they are aiming at tourists from India, China and Russia - all three countries on the list of countries not condemning Russia, I think we know where they lay already

[userabcd]

I guess Thailand does not have much say in the matter.

 

US and EU sanctions are widespread and severe and are being increased and extended daily, one assumes that Thailand will have to comply with US and EU rules.

Edited February 28, 2022 by userabcd

[mikebike]

Seems like paying will not be an issue. Although now excluded from SWIFT, China has now included Russia in their CRISP system of global payments, of which Thailand is part of.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, mikebike said:

Seems like paying will not be an issue. Although now excluded from SWIFT, China has now included Russia in their CRISP system of global payments, of which Thailand is part of.

Think you'll find its CIPS

[Willy Wombat]

Put sanctions on Russia.

Then just stamp all of your exports with Made in China

 

Simples

[webfact]

Moved to Thailand News

 

//Admin

[IamNoone88]

Russia has got oil - lots of oil. Iran and Iraq never stopped selling the stuff in $$ throughout the wars .... and at $100++ per barrel now, Russia is making lots of money. There are always buyers of oil.

[Dialemco]

The answer is really simple Russia has signed its death warrant by starting a war that it cannot win economically so unless Thailand wants to donate any exports to Russian they would be wise to stop them  Russians now living in Thailand may find their external sources of income no longer exist. The hard facts of life is every country will suffer economically owing this war.

[thaiman]

3 hours ago, userabcd said:

 one assumes that Thailand will have to comply with US and EU rules.

Indeed.  Thailand is America's B**** in South East Asia!

[Dialemco]

15 minutes ago, IamNoone88 said:

Russia has got oil - lots of oil. Iran and Iraq never stopped selling the stuff in $$ throughout the wars .... and at $100++ per barrel now, Russia is making lots of money. There are always buyers of oil.

Rubbish Iran is unable fo trade in Dollars as all payments have to be remited through USA that is how swift works. Most Chinese imports of Oil from Iran are paid for in exchange for goods. What price China pays for oil from Iran is never disclosed but it will be way below world market levels

[sumongkhwai]

I mean it’s not like they would declare war against the US and Britain and hide the declaration in a drawer to save face. 

[blazes]

The supply of oil globally is tight (hence the high price), but of course Biden has not exactly helped by cutting the Keystone pipeline (from its friendly neighbour Canada) and the moronic Green New Deal has cut off the supplies of the fracking industry.  Thank you, Joe.

[Guderian]

Why is there a dilemma here? The Thai government is quite happy to continue trading with Myanmar and to maintain reasonably cordial relations with the murderous thugs running the show there, I should have thought that Vlad the Sovereign Nation Impaler would fit right into their cosy little social circle.

[mikebike]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Think you'll find its CIPS

Darn autocorrect!

[Lee4Life]

7 hours ago, Henryford said:

Finance against morals ha ha. Thailand will take $$$ in a heartbeat.

the US imported 37 Billion U.S., Russia 719 Million U.S.

[pedro01]

Not Thailand's fight.

 

They should just carry on.

[vandeventer]

7 hours ago, Henryford said:

Finance against morals ha ha. Thailand will take $$$ in a heartbeat.

Your taking about the Government and not the Thai people? But lets face it the Thai's never really learned about geography at school. Most of the Thai's that I know can't even find Thailand on a map let alone the Ukraine. How Sad!!!

[Thunglom]

there will be pressure from the west to apply some sort of sanctions/restrictions on Russia.

 

For the first time the expression "third world" is being used correctly - It means countries not aligned to either East or West blocs.

 

Thailand is probably almost third world.

"Developing" nation is a different concept based on economy and society.

 

Thailand's trade with the WEST is a lot bigger than Russia though

However Russia will be looking for customers for fuel - it's no good cutting off Europe and having loads of fuel you can't sell.

 

It would be unusual for Thailand to act on political or ideological factors. It would be far more likely to be swayed by economic factors.

As a business Thailand will have to decide whether or not they will continue to serve Russia as a customer.

[Thunglom]

10 minutes ago, pedro01 said:

Not Thailand's fight.

 

They should just carry on.

I think you are overlooking the possible ramifications if they do "just carry on". They may try this but the West is by far a bigger customer than Russia...they will have to condsider on which side their bread is buttered