I predicted to a friend last week that I think it will find a floor around 10KUSD.  If you look at the life time graph that looks about right.  My friend argued tooth and nail with me that it would not drop below 20K.

 

What do you think....and why?

Moved to the Cryptocurrency forum. 

25 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

What do you think

I think you don't know anything about the topic.

 

 

25 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

and why?

 

25 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I think it will find a floor around 10KUSD

 

Bitcoin questions is very much like “do you believe in god, and why”?
 

Nobody knowa, but many think they know, and to many do not want to miss the opportunity to join paradise, others fail because eaten of the forbidden fruit of wisdom and knowledge and missed out,  and do not believe for same reasons. Others being converted and hopefully they do not invest more than they can loose. Maybe paradise exists, I do not think so! 

10 to 14k maybe who knows

I hope the share mkt dives 20 to 40%

In rough terms shares move in 7 year cycles.

 

7 year ma on btc circa 13,800

 

Shares, prop, coins all going down next 5 mths imo

No , the  fanboys reckon it will hit a million in a few years .... so buy now ,please buy now....

regards worgeordie

31 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

I think you don't know anything about the topic.

 

And that less than insightful comment of yours clearly shows what your depth of knowledge is!

Yes.  Bitcoin and all the others are going to zero.

 

Central bankers and governments will not allow competition with existing currency and the impending full implentation of central bank digital cash. The goal is to fully eliminate cash and track all incomings and outgoings.

 

 I think bitcoin was an experiment funded by central bankers to determine best methods prior to worldwide rollout.

 

The carnage will lead to the illusion of central bankers and governments saving the day and protecting citizens from never getting fleeced again.

I bet this country will be in trouble if it does......

 

"El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as official legal tender. President Nayib Bukele, a major crypto advocate, framed his country as a pioneer and launched a state-sponsored crypto wallet , volcano-powered crypto mines , and a utopic Bitcoin city"

around 14k. average drop after bull run is about 81 percent.

Bitcoin, and its like, is a confidence, almost a fantasy proposition.  It has no intrinsic value and is not tied to any kind of financial  measures that can give investors any kind of reassurance, in other words, its more of a gamble that a reality.  While people think that it exists,  then it does exist,  The moment that they think that it doesn't exist, then it will disappear in a blaze of smoke and despair .  It is impossible to predict its future, as normally accepted economic drivers do not seem to be an influence on value. even over a short period, it could rise to unprecedented levels on a wave of blind confidence and speculation, or it could just as easily disappear, almost over night. To me, its an unjustified gamble, a bit like derivatives, or spread betting.  I would put them all in the same set.  This is, of course, a very personal view. 

2 minutes ago, stoner said:

around 14k. average drop after bull run is about 81 percent.

Yep agree.

 

About double shares. 41% avg bear mkt.

 

Next 3 to 5 months can buy great shares cheap.

Just now, Doctor Tom said:

Bitcoin, and its like, is a confidence, almost a fantasy proposition.  It has no intrinsic value and is not tied to any kind of financial  measures that can give investors any kind of reassurance, in other words, its more of a gamble that a reality.  While people think that it exists,  then it does exist,  The moment that they think that it doesn't exist, then it will disappear in a blaze of smoke and despair .  It is impossible to predict its future, as normally accepted economic drivers do not seem to be an influence on value. even over a short period, it could rise to unprecedented levels on a wave of blind confidence and speculation, or it could just as easily disappear, almost over night. To me, its an unjustified gamble, a bit like derivatives, or spread betting.  I would put them all in the same set.  This is, of course, a very personal view. 

Derivatives have time frame. They expire.

46 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

I think you don't know anything about the topic.

 

 

 

 

Wow, powerful and factual arguments!

Some people might be jumping off buildings.

59 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

In rough terms shares move in 7 year cycles.

 

7 year ma on btc circa 13,800

 

Shares, prop, coins all going down next 5 mths imo

Shares depend on the earning capability of the company, got NOTHING to do with a cycle. Bitcoin isn't a share.  

8 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Some people might be jumping off buildings.

He might: Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) Portfolio Tracker (saylortracker.com) 1490 million gone.

11 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Shares depend on the earning capability of the company, got NOTHING to do with a cycle. Bitcoin isn't a share.  

Markets move in cycles though. Economic booms and busts produce 7 year cycles. Those impacts alter profits.

 

Higher rates means less consumer spending plus higher debt repayments reduces company profits.

 

1966 crash

1987 cash

2001 dot com crash

2008 gfc

2022 inflation ...crash or correction

 

 

17 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

He might: Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) Portfolio Tracker (saylortracker.com) 1490 million gone.

37% down oops

I don't know much but I was educated to believe that a currency should reflect the strength of the economy of its country of origin. Speculation may create distortions, but these will correct themselves over time. Now, Bitcoin represents the strength of nothing and to me it seems that its value it set entirely by speculation, so we should see its value evaporate in due course, when the time is right, at the appropriate juncture.

30 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Some people might be jumping off buildings.

I have my share of building jumps, spans, cliffs and antennas even airplanes. Everything is possible ????

12 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

1966 crash

1987 cash

2001 dot com crash

2008 gfc

2022 inflation ...crash or correction

 

 

21 years, 14 years, 7 years, 14 years   that isn't a 7 year cycle.

The DIP before the RIP guys!  Bitcoin on sale, buy, buy, buy..!

1 minute ago, FritsSikkink said:

21 years, 14 years, 7 years, 14 years   that isn't a 7 year cycle.

2 times 7 is 14

3 times 7 is 21

 

Lol

38 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Some people might be jumping off buildings.

but safemoon.

1 hour ago, CharlieH said:

I bet this country will be in trouble if it does......

 

"El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as official legal tender. President Nayib Bukele, a major crypto advocate, framed his country as a pioneer and launched a state-sponsored crypto wallet , volcano-powered crypto mines , and a utopic Bitcoin city"

Yep, when I was on assignment there in 1981, the currency was the Colón, it was pegged to the Dollar at a rate of 2 Colóns for one Dollar, which was also legal tender. Now the Colón got buggered and is worth about a tenth of a Buck. So let's not analyse this to death, but the Bitcoin is a..holed too..

 

Of course it won't go to zero. 

 

Personally, I think the bottom is in at the prior all time high in 2017, 19k.

 

I don't think there will be new all time highs until Dec, 2023.

1987 crash

1994 correction

2001 correction

2008 crash

2015 correction

2022 correction?

2029 crash??? (100 yrs from 1929 crash)

 

 

Anyone spot the trend???

 

I

 

My expert told me to dollar cost average in at $21,000.

 

When it rises to 200k in 2 years, it won't matter if you bought at 21k or 19k.

 

The same expert told me to DCA when BTC had fallen from 19k to 3k in 2018, great advice.