Thailand with a falling baht caught in stagflation spiral with high inflation and low GDP growth

[webfact]

Prices in Thailand rose by 7.66% in June, a 14-year record driven by rising energy and food costs. Now the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) is conceding that heightened inflation of between 6% to 7% may also extend into the last quarter of the year while peaking in Autumn at up to 9%. On Wednesday, the Minister of Finance Arkhom Termpittayapaisith (inset) stressed that there was no capital flight out of Thailand from debt markets. He said his ministry was monitoring the baht which has just breached the ฿36 barrier against the US currency. It comes as the country has posted a widening current account deficit in May of $3.7 billion from $3.1 billion in April with the government hoping that a revival of foreign tourism will help balance the books in the latter half of the year even though the numbers are still only a fraction of those seen in 2019.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

 

The significant and heavy impact of the war in Ukraine is hitting Thailand hard as it also challenges economies across the world as inflation bites the less well off with anaemic growth. All eyes over the coming months will be on Thailand’s current account after it posted a larger deficit of $3.7 billion for May ahead of a $3.1 billion shortfall in April. The problem for the kingdom is elevated import costs driven by oil prices in excess of $100 a barrel and a foreign tourism industry that, at best this year, will only see 25% of the numbers seen in 2019 crippling the country’s already limited prospects for significant growth.

 

The Thai Minister of Finance has assured the media that Thailand was not experiencing a flight of capital from debt markets as he said the government was monitoring the baht even as it continues to depreciate against the US dollar breaking past the ฿36 barrier for the first time in over 15 years on Wednesday. It comes as the kingdom’s current account deficit rose for May 2022 to $3.7 billion after a $3.1 billion shortfall in April while the kingdom’s economy, like others around the globe, is left facing the very real and perhaps inevitable prospect of an economy mired in stagflation with an anaemic growth rate and persistently high inflation in force at least until the end of 2022 which could feed into a spiral.

 

On Wednesday, the Thai Minister of Finance, Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, told Reuters that the depreciation of the Thai baht was not being driven by capital flows from the country’s debt market as the baht broke through the ฿36 to the dollar mark for the first time in over 15 years reaching a new low against the US dollar while the Thai currency since the beginning of this year, has gained ground against both the pound sterling and euro.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/07/07/thai-economy-caught-in-a-stagflation-spiral/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-07-08

 

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[ultramarine]

The Bank of Thailand has to pray that the US slips into recession since that's the only way the Fed to stop its rate hikes.  As long as US interest rates are rising, other currencies will continue to slide.  This includes the Euro, and most other "risk currencies" including emerging markets such as Thailand. 

[Onerak]

Enjoy while it lasts. Nothing last forever. 

[Iamfalang]

1 hour ago, Onerak said:

Enjoy while it lasts. Nothing last forever. 

Death lasts forever.

 

And a gift from Soi 368 will stay with me forever.

 

and the scar from my 9th wife

 

and the pain of being attack and tied up by 7 ladyboys 

 

I'm still living with the 7 ladyboys, but that's besides the point!!!

 

I'll say it again:

 

50: 1    Baht: USD.

 

40 is coming before Christmas (whenever that is, I'm Buddhist)

[ikke1959]

Ukranian war to blame.. not the manipulation of the THB in THailand, not the mismanagement of the economy, and the tourists industry...Inflation is all over the world not a specific Thai problem same as oil prices..but Thailand has made a mess in the past years of the country and now the will face the problems

[RichardColeman]

Exactly how many world currencies is it majorly  in decline against ? 1 or 2 ?

[mikebell]

4 hours ago, Onerak said:

Enjoy while it lasts. Nothing last forever. 

'the Thai currency since the beginning of this year, has gained ground against both the pound sterling and euro.'  I'm British & not enjoying this.

[digger70]

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

'the Thai currency since the beginning of this year, has gained ground against both the pound sterling and euro.'  I'm British & not enjoying this.

Me neither ,Oz $ still Down. The only one Up is the US $ .

[Isaan sailor]

Not sure about the 15-year high on USD claim.  I distinctly recall purchasing my espresso machine in February 2016 when the USD hit 36 on the Baht.  And I have the credit card record to prove it.

[pomchop]

16 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Not sure about the 15-year high on USD claim.  I distinctly recall purchasing my espresso machine in February 2016 when the USD hit 36 on the Baht.  And I have the credit card record to prove it.

you are right

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/exchange-rate-against-usd

[vandeventer]

5 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Exactly how many world currencies is it majorly  in decline against ? 1 or 2 ?

The only good currency is the Russian but this won't last and America is already in a recession but don't want to admit it. But when you are feeling bad just lesion to this good old song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TBqhGEU4FA&list=RDMM&index=4

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by vandeventer

[Onerak]

16 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

America is already in a recession but don't want to admit it.

It is has nothing to do with some entity admitting it or denying it. Unless the second quarter GDP data is announced (on July 28), it is premature to think the US GDP has shrunk. Yes lots of economists are saying America is in a recession but it is not conclusive yet unless second quarter GDP is announced. I strongly believe that we are not in a recession and on JUly 28, it will be confirmed. We must have missed narrowly because I don't see any other tell tale signs of a recession. Consumer sentiments are bad because of high gas prices. Market is unstable because of a recession fear. Job data are strong. Unemployment is extremely low. Wage is growing.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Onerak

[Daithi85]

11 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

The only good currency is the Russian but this won't last and America is already in a recession but don't want to admit it. But when you are feeling bad just lesion to this good old song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TBqhGEU4FA&list=RDMM&index=4

 

Great song, before I clicked on the link I thought it was going to be, Don't worry be happy. 

[vandeventer]

13 minutes ago, Onerak said:

It is has nothing to do with some entity admitting it or denying it. Unless the second quarter GDP data is announced (on July 28), it is premature to think the US GDP has shrunk. Yes lots of economists are saying America is in a recession but it is not conclusive yet unless second quarter GDP is announced. I strongly believe that we are not in a recession and on JUly 28, it will be confirmed. We must have missed narrowly because I don't see any other tell tale signs of a recession. Consumer sentiments are bad because of high gas prices. Market is unstable because of a recession fear. Job data are strong. Unemployment is extremely low. Wage is growing.

Prices are only going one way, and that's up with this President that blames everyone but himself. He's not in charge and never has been. America is circling the drain and the greenies are happy.

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

Prices are only going one way, and that's up with this President that blames everyone but himself. He's not in charge and never has been. America is circling the drain and the greenies are happy.

It's not only the US I am afraid.

[ourmanflint]

All these reports seem to infer that tourism *is* quite important to Thailands economy after many years of politicians telling everyone it is not

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

All these reports seem to infer that tourism *is* quite important to Thailands economy after many years of politicians telling everyone it is not

No one has ever believed what the government has babbled on about as far as the small gdp tourism supposedly gives the country. Many no better as well as those whose subsistence relies on tourism...

[earlinclaifornia]

36 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

Prices are only going one way, and that's up with this President that blames everyone but himself. He's not in charge and never has been. America is circling the drain and the greenies are happy.

I wondering who is so unhappy? Not Biden supporters.

[AnotherFarang8]

Those unrestrainedly printed USD debts exported to the world under the disguise of reserves are ending up chasing a limited supply of commodities. Can’t print commodities out of thin air. We are going to see years of soaring prices as countries continue to unload those reserves in exchange for raw materials trying to front-run each other and to support their local currencies. China started in April and it alone has 3 trillion USD to go.

[Harveyboy]

4 hours ago, mikebell said:

'the Thai currency since the beginning of this year, has gained ground against both the pound sterling and euro.'  I'm British & not enjoying this.

same euro down again Today 

[thaibook]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

All these reports seem to infer that tourism *is* quite important to Thailands economy after many years of politicians telling everyone it is not

Of course it is, otherwise how could it be claimed that increasing hotel prices for tourists will solve the national economic crisis?

 

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, Onerak said:

Enjoy while it lasts. Nothing last forever. 

Medication can help with that.

[MadMac]

9 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Ukranian war to blame.. not the manipulation of the THB in THailand, not the mismanagement of the economy, and the tourists industry...Inflation is all over the world not a specific Thai problem same as oil prices..but Thailand has made a mess in the past years of the country and now the will face the problems

Putin did it. Period.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Not sure about the 15-year high on USD claim.  I distinctly recall purchasing my espresso machine in February 2016 when the USD hit 36 on the Baht.  And I have the credit card record to prove it.

Yor're right. Baht was over 36 at beginning and end of 2016.

[Daithi85]

46 minutes ago, Harveyboy said:

same euro down again Today 

Euros getting smashed and will continue to do so I think. Some experts are predicting 1 euro to 90 cents USD. 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Daithi85 said:

Euros getting smashed and will continue to do so I think. Some experts are predicting 1 euro to 90 cents USD. 

Getting close as it is now

[Daithi85]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Getting close as it is now

I wonder how that will effect a country like cambodia,the strength of the dollar will surely put alot of Europeans off going anywhere where dollar is used I would think.

[Cake Monster]

Living as I do on the edge of the EEC and close to Amata City, I have noticed a considerable downturn in activity over the last Month or so.

The workers do not seem to have the same amount of OT,  if any, they are also being asked to take Holiday entitlement Days as there is little work for some of them.

The Bosses are saying to these people that they are awaiting spare parts from Laos Etc

IMO, the Export Market is taking a downturn due to high Inflation in the Market Place of such Countries as the US and EU Etc, and the reigning in of spending by the Consumers, which has caused this effect,

[JimmyJ]

3 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

All these reports seem to infer that tourism *is* quite important to Thailands economy after many years of politicians telling everyone it is not

Not only politicians.

 

I recall mainly some  forum posters fond of  stating that.

Edited July 8, 2022 by JimmyJ

[Dogmatix]

The Thai current account held up well during COVID but now it is slipping away and they don't mention anything about the capital account side but there are definitely net outflows.  Let's hope it doesn't get to the 1997 situation. 

 

Amidst all this some idiot suggests destroying the slowly recovering tourism industry by imposing dual pricing on hotels.  Most tourists are not American or from HK and they are all suffering from falling exchange rates.