Thailand’s economic outlook into 2023 looks bleak as world economies head for a ‘hard’ recession

[webfact]

 

By Thanaphum Charoensombatpanich

Thailand’s economic outlook looks bleaker than most anticipate it to be as some of the major sources of economic growth are likely to face turbulence in the months ahead as exports and tourism may not be able to live up to expectations as global economy goes in for a tailspin.

 

Thailand, which has started to witness an economic revival after the opening of the country to tourism in July 2022, has seen the number of tourists in the month of August rise to 1.17 million, the 2nd month of more than 1 million tourists and it is expected to rise further in September when the data is released.

 

Thailand’s other growth engine has been the export sector that has also continued to remain robust and the data from the Bank of Thailand (BoT) for the month of August 2022 showed that exports rose by 8.2% year-on-year although month-on-month the numbers were down slightly as global economy starts to slowdown.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/44812/big-read-thailands-economic-outlook-into-2023-looks-bleak-as-world-economies-head-for-a-hard-recession/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-10-03

 

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[ozz1]

This must be a mistake tat said we are going to get a gazillion tourist over the next few weeks someones crystal ball is lying

[2baht]

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s economic outlook looks bleak

Impossible, with squillions of tourists spending gazillions of baht and a reinstated PM, all looks good! ????

[gearbox]

Thailand is in much better shape than many countries, especially in Europe. It has a trade surplus and produces most of its food. In regards to the tourism, the sky didn't fall down during the covid times when the borders were closed, it can't get any worse than that.

[Isaan sailor]

If tourism looks bleak, why not take better care of your large expat population?  Scrap the 90-day, and the mountains of paperwork for visas.  We help the economy in many ways.

[Pattaya Spotter]

Will we test 40+ to the dollar in the next year ????????????

[ourmanflint]

Just looking to book our annual visit in January and flights are at least 30-40% more expensive than usual and hotels at least 100-150% more expensive than last January. 
This is going to put off a lot of people and rightly so. 

[Bangkok Barry]

58 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

If tourism looks bleak, why not take better care of your large expat population?  Scrap the 90-day, and the mountains of paperwork for visas.  We help the economy in many ways.

Why should they? Nothing in it for them to make our life easier. All they've done over the years is place more and more obstacles. They are unable to join the dots between foreigners living here - often with foreign income - and the fact they help the Thai economy and their Thai family by spending it. We are foreigners and must be treated as such and with suspicion. That's as far as their thinking can reach.

[RichardColeman]

I'd say that graph is clear evidence of the return of expats and thai after covid - not actual tourism from anywhere other than war escaping russians and indians with more gold than sense

[BangkokReady]

8 hours ago, gearbox said:

the sky didn't fall down during the covid times when the borders were closed, it can't get any worse than that.

It got pretty bad and things were starting to give.  No money for subsidies, issues around debt, suicides up.

 

Thailand needs tourism very much.

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, ourmanflint said:

Just looking to book our annual visit in January and flights are at least 30-40% more expensive than usual and hotels at least 100-150% more expensive than last January. 
This is going to put off a lot of people and rightly so. 

If you're talking about Thailand hotel prices you should look again perhaps, most of the prices here are still heavily discounted. I flew last week from Chiang Mai to Bangkok return and the cost was lower than it was five years ago. Ditto hotel costs in Bangkok Pattaya and Hua hin, there's some seriously good deals to be had.

[BangkokReady]

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

If tourism looks bleak, why not take better care of your large expat population?  Scrap the 90-day, and the mountains of paperwork for visas.  We help the economy in many ways.

Because they don't want to acknowledge anything positive about foreigners, least of all expats.  In fact, they need things like 90-day to make foreigners look bad and feel unwelcome.

[nigelforbes]

I don't agree with the gloomy economic assessment. The country is able to feed itself plus government borrowings are low by comparison. Yes, international tourism will not live up to expectations for another two years is my best guess. And exports will continue to be below past peak levels as recession hits our trading partners and supply chains become fully functional. None of these things mean that Thailand will be in serious economic difficulty, they simply mean that progress wont reach expected levels as hoped. By comparison to Western countries, Thailand is in pretty good shape.

[Freed1948]

That's some opening sentence!!!!!!!

[crazykopite]

I have just read all the comments and I’ve come to the conclusion those who say Thailand will be okay are living in cuckoo land . Personal debt is in the trillions ,suicides are on the up and up . The PM has been told he can soldier on for another few years which is going to cause serious unrest with supporters of opposition parties , the $$$$$$$$ is on the rise and that will hurt the economy and let’s face it the baht has been heavily manipulated since this government took charge so as far as I am concerned next year could be a year of doom and gloom and living on one of the islands I’m still waiting to see the tourists return but with all the problems around the world sadly I have written off this coming high/peak season and no I’m not a gloom and doom merchant nor do I wear tainted glasses I really hope that I’m wrong only time will tell.

Edited October 3, 2022 by crazykopite

[zzaa09]

...and all of it make believe. 

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, crazykopite said:

I have just read all the comments and I’ve come to the conclusion those who say Thailand will be okay are living in cuckoo land . Personal debt is in the trillions ,suicides are on the up and up . The PM has been told he can soldier on for another few years which is going to cause serious unrest with supporters of opposition parties , the $$$$$$$$ is on the rise and that will hurt the economy and let’s face it the baht has been heavily manipulated since this government took charge so as far as I am concerned next year could be a year of doom and gloom and living on one of the islands I’m still waiting to see the tourists return but with all the problems around the world sadly I have written off this coming high/peak season and no I’m not a gloom and doom merchant nor do I wear tainted glasses I really hope that I’m wrong only time will tell.

A couple of points:

 

Thailand is an export driven economy, that includes tourism. USD at 38 is probably the most helpful thing that could possibly happen to the country.

 

Personal debt or consumer loans is an issue. But that's an issue that's in the hands of the Thai banks, all of which are well capitalized and closely monitored. It's worth pointing out that as GDP has fallen because of covid, the ratio of consumer loans has increased. That doesn't mean that banks have been lending more, it just means that the formulae is distorted because of the low GDP. That said, no-performing loans remain below 3%, a very acceptable level.

 

As for the rest of what you wrote, the PM, suicides etc, sorry, but so what! In economics terms and Thailands economies, those things are meaningless and will not have an impact.

[novacova]

26 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:USD at 38 is probably the most helpful thing that could possibly happen to the country.

 

I dont see how the devaluation of the currency is a good thing. It makes no economic sense. It’s a sign of inflation and disparity. But for those that are swinging loony out in left field then I can understand that they have to justify the train of thought, and for whatever reason they have to think global economic destruction is a good thing.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, novacova said:

I dont see how the devaluation of the currency is a good thing. It makes no economic sense. It’s a sign of inflation and disparity. But for those that are swinging loony out in left field then I can understand that they have to justify the train of thought, and for whatever reason they have to think global economic destruction is a good thing.

This is not a devaluation of THB, this is a unique strengthening of USD against all currencies, which benefits the status of Thailand as an export economy. Here, the following may help you comprehend things better. BTW, if you try and insult me again we stop talking and you go on my ignore list, it's up to you:

 

 

[In the jungle]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

This is not a devaluation of THB, this is a unique strengthening of USD against all currencies, which benefits the status of Thailand as an export economy. Here, the following may help you comprehend things better. BTW, if you try and insult me again we stop talking and you go on my ignore list, it's up to you:

 

 

 

Damn.  The Russian Ruble is doing so well I must put all my money into it right now; well perhaps with a little Mexican Peso thrown into the mix.

[novacova]

42 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

This is not a devaluation of THB, this is a unique strengthening of USD against all currencies, which benefits the status of Thailand as an export economy. Here, the following may help you comprehend things better. BTW, if you try and insult me again we stop talking and you go on my ignore list, it's up to you:

 

 

I wasn’t trying to insult you, I apologize if you thought so, but if you want to put me on your ignore list, then have at it. It won’t bother me in the slightest, I doubt I’d even notice. I am as with most are quite aware of the strengthening of the usd against global currencies. Empirically by all appearance we’re headed for continuation economic turmoil, why? Because of the policies and horrible spending habits of those trying to run things in the US government. Their intentional destruction of the global economy is not a good thing, no matter how anyone try’s to justify it. But then a good lawyer can convince a jury that it’s actually Micky Mouse that is guilty of puppeteering the chief executive in the White House though the facts clearly state otherwise.  

Edited October 3, 2022 by novacova

[Adumbration]

12 hours ago, gearbox said:

Thailand is in much better shape than many countries, especially in Europe. It has a trade surplus and produces most of its food. In regards to the tourism, the sky didn't fall down during the covid times when the borders were closed, it can't get any worse than that.

You should visit my village to give pep talks.  The elderly couple down the end of my street have resorted to ratting through garbage looking for cardboard to sell at the recyclers.  He is a very skilled wood carver who used to do ornate boats (to display seafood in fancy restaurants).  

[Adumbration]

24 minutes ago, In the jungle said:

 

Damn.  The Russian Ruble is doing so well I must put all my money into it right now; well perhaps with a little Mexican Peso thrown into the mix.

If you review my post history you will see that I bought a large holding of rubles immediately after the war kicked off.  I posted here recommending everyone do so.  I was riducled relentlessly.  

[In the jungle]

18 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

If you review my post history you will see that I bought a large holding of rubles immediately after the war kicked off.  I posted here recommending everyone do so.  I was riducled relentlessly.  

You thought I was serious? 

 

I think you are going to get burnt worse than a Russian tank crew.

[gearbox]

53 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

You should visit my village to give pep talks.  The elderly couple down the end of my street have resorted to ratting through garbage looking for cardboard to sell at the recyclers.  He is a very skilled wood carver who used to do ornate boats (to display seafood in fancy restaurants).  

There are unfortunate people everywhere, but is highly unlikely a Thai to die from cold or hunger. The energy price shock is much softer here than in Europe. Exports are holding so far and the tourism is slowly picking up. In Samui the businesses are slowly reopening one after another. I would say I'm a bit insulated from the ordinary folks nere but just don't feel that uncertainty and fear of the future I sensed in the people in Europe in the last 3 months.

[BayArea]

8 hours ago, BangkokReady said:

Because they don't want to acknowledge anything positive about foreigners, least of all expats.  In fact, they need things like 90-day to make foreigners look bad and feel unwelcome.

Spot on! my Thai wife has been telling me this line of thinking for awhile. Her typical Thai xenophobic belief is Thailand is for Thais and if you don't like the way the country or gov't treats non Thai, you can leave.  

[nigelforbes]

6 hours ago, novacova said:

I wasn’t trying to insult you, I apologize if you thought so, but if you want to put me on your ignore list, then have at it. It won’t bother me in the slightest, I doubt I’d even notice. I am as with most are quite aware of the strengthening of the usd against global currencies. Empirically by all appearance we’re headed for continuation economic turmoil, why? Because of the policies and horrible spending habits of those trying to run things in the US government. Their intentional destruction of the global economy is not a good thing, no matter how anyone try’s to justify it. But then a good lawyer can convince a jury that it’s actually Micky Mouse that is guilty of puppeteering the chief executive in the White House though the facts clearly state otherwise.  

"why? Because of the policies and horrible spending habits of those trying to run things in the US government. Their intentional destruction of the global economy is not a good thing, no matter how anyone try’s to justify it".

 

USD strengthening is not a bad thing done by bad people, it's a natural response to events and is entirely predictable. USD is the pre-eminent global reserve currency, in times of turmoil and economic uncertainty, people buy it for security. Inflation is a  function of the post covid effect and a bi-product of the war in Ukraine, the US Fed is absolutely right to keep that genie in the bottle and raising interest rates is one way to do that. Unfortunately, that makes USD even more appealing. This is about cause and effect, not about what bad or misguided people are doing, stop trying to find someone to blame, if you must do that, blame Putin and the people who unleashed the covid virus, everyone else is trying to help..

 

[TooMuchTime]

You will own nothing and be happy.

[talahtnut]

15 minutes ago, TooMuchTime said:

You will own nothing and be happy.

Lets hope klaus Schwab will end up owning

nothing and be unhappy about it!

[morrobay]

15 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

If tourism looks bleak, why not take better care of your large expat population?  Scrap the 90-day, and the mountains of paperwork for visas.  We help the economy in many ways.

I'm surprised they haven't made things more difficult. You know some Thais read this forum and with the condescending comments year in year out about Thais it  doesn't help. Although I  agree with those comments.