“Softening of demand after April” – Phuket hoteliers worry about bookings

[webfact]

Phuket Nai HarnPHOTO: Phuket's Nai Harn beach

 

By Peter Roche

Phuket’s tourist arrival numbers have stabilised after the pre-Christmas/new year surge in passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport. Since the middle of December, arrival data shows that Phuket is welcoming 10-15,000 passengers a day. Since the middle of January, the daily arrivals have flatlined, indicating an easing of demand as both the western and Chinese New Year holidays are now passed.

 

Whilst Phuket hoteliers and tour group operators are cheering on the influx of visitors back to the island, there are some disturbing trends which may threaten Phuket’s sustainable tourist revival for the rest of 2023.

First and foremost is the enormous influx of Russian visitors which started during October last year and has just increased with, now, nearly 1 in 3 arrivals to the island are from Russian ports.

 

From the start of November through to February 9, nearly 300,000 Russian travellers have come through Phuket’s immigration turnstiles. People from The Russian Federation are eligible for a 45 visa waiver, followed by a possible extension for another 30 days (after March 31, 2023 the visa waiver will revert to 30 days on arrival plus 30 day extension, unless the Thai government extends the promotion).

 

Never in Phuket’s history has there been such a concentration of one nationality contributing to the daily arrival figures. Even in the heyday of mass Chinese tourism, the concentration of Chinese tourists never reached beyond 28% in Phuket. That “eggs-in-on-basket” situation was tested after the July 2018 sinking of the ‘Phoenix’ south of Phuket where 47 Chinese tourists drowned. The bad publicity from that incident caused a steep drop off of Chinese visitors, poking a large hole in the tourist arrivals for at least the rest of 2018.

 

Speaking to a leading hotelier, who asked not to be identified, Phuket-GO were told that is a marked softening demand in forward bookings after April.

 

“Bookings have been brisk since the start of December last year but, compared to pre-Covid booking figures, we’re noticing a big drop off in demand after April, which is concerning.”

 

Villa owners, car rental companies and visa agents have also reported an enormous surge of demand from Russian clientele, pushing up rental prices around the island.  One local agent, specialising in sales to Russian customers, says that most slack in the Phuket property market has now “well and truly” been taken up, forcing prices higher as a result.

 

“I fear many people in Phuket’s tourism business are just happy to be filling up their pockets again, from wherever the tourists are coming from, and not looking at the trends. The local hotels and tour stakeholders have made this mistake before with the influx of Chinese visitors in the decade before the pandemic.”

 

Source: https://phuket-go.com/phuket-news/phuket-news/softening-of-demand-after-april-phuket-hoteliers-worry-about-bookings/

 

-- © Copyright Phuket GO 2023-02-15

 

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[sqwakvfr]

Quickest way to gauge the demand in an area is look at hotel prices.  For instance in Chiang Mai the tourist season is good but not great.   Presently it is supposed to the middle of high season but plenty of availability and some of the high end hotels can be had for $100 pre night.  In the past the same hotel would go for $200 to $300 per night.  Overall high season 2023 will be good but not even close to what it was like before Covid.  Like any recovery the road will be rocky and certainly not smooth.  

 

In mid January 2023 I got a single night at a hotel in the middle Nimman for $100.  This hotel had all the high amenities(big room with a bathtub and shower, modern gym, pool, sauna and a great breakfast buffet). 

 

Of course the best way to stimulate more demand is to add a 300 Baht arrival tax on all foreign air arrivals???###$ TIT.

Edited February 14, 2023 by sqwakvfr

[madmitch]

Haven't I read this somewhere before?

 

 

[2baht]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

which may threaten Phuket’s sustainable tourist revival for the rest of 2023.

Here's an idea, charge foreign tourists a 300 baht entry fee, who could resist that? ????

[Stargeezr]

Yup April is about the end of the high season, or Winter season, so it should not be a surprise

the number of travelers is less Mid April until October. Most countries in the Northern half of the world have

good Spring weather until October when the weather cools down again.

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, sqwakvfr said:

Quickest way to gauge the demand in an area is look at hotel prices.  For instance in Chiang Mai the tourist season is good but not great.   Presently it is supposed to the middle of high season but plenty of availability and some of the high end hotels can be had for $100 pre night.  In the past the same hotel would go for $200 to $300 per night.  Overall high season 2023 will be good but not even close to what it was like before Covid.  Like any recovery the road will be rocky and certainly not smooth.  

 

In mid January 2023 I got a single night at a hotel in the middle Nimman for $100.  This hotel had all the high amenities(big room with a bathtub and shower, modern gym, pool, sauna and a great breakfast buffet). 

 

Of course the best way to stimulate more demand is to add a 300 Baht arrival tax on all foreign air arrivals???###$ TIT.

When people pay 3,400 Baht per night for a hotel room, they don't care about an extra 300 spread over the course of their stay. Anyway, average room rate in the North during December is under 1,375 per night, USD 100 per night is very expensive.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=875&language=eng

[wazzupnow]

wow an entry fee of 300 bht really? this is people making not coming to thailand

now days its the price of 3 small beers

this is what worries me more than an entry fee

all prices are up for everything 

a hotel under 1000 bht in BKK is no longer available 

but no problem they have great cannabis now witch makes all cities stink like Amsterdam

the quality tourist they wanted are here now stoned potheads instead of big spenders

that a way thailand keep it up

land of smiles? an ever lasting gazing smurk of stinky potheads you mean

 

[ikke1959]

Maybe they should study what tourists want in their holidays and what are holidays for......

If I come to Thailand on holiday.. I can't smoke my e cigarette, as the fine will huge...

I can't drink a canof beer on the beach at 15.00 as of alcohol restrictions,

Ican't drive a motorcycle, as my driverslicense is not valid here,

I will be scammed by taxis, waterski rentals, daily trips, pay extreem more to visit natioal parks. and because of the strong THB my holiday is extra expensive... Apart from that in my country the energy bill has gone up some times more than 200%, airline tickets are more expensive as there is a policy to discourage flying, because of the enviroment and many more things. In the meantime Thailand wants an extra entrance fee now of 300 THB for a country that can not fulll my relaxed feeling of a holiday...Yes tourists..........and the 50/50 payment of the Government for holidays.... seems good, but it will cost the Thai money too and where do have to that from every month???

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Since the middle of January, the daily arrivals have flatlined, indicating an easing of demand as both the western and Chinese New Year holidays are now passed.

Hardly rocket science.

[Venom]

Low season, the Songkran signals the start of raining season, spring/ summer in Europe and elsewhere. It's always been that way with exception to the covid debacle. Some would argue the best time to of year to be in Thailand. Hotels are cheaper, less crowded, less air pollution etc. 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, madmitch said:

Haven't I read this somewhere before?

 

 

Yes, we used to call it low season.

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Villa owners, car rental companies and visa agents have also reported an enormous surge of demand from Russian clientele,

Nice to see Thailand cashing in the current No.1 pariah nation ! Shameful

[ignore it]

TAT is redefining the tourist calender.

In addition to the traditional "High Season" and "Low Season" designations, they have recognized "Conscription Season".

TAT wants to send a delegation of 112 Thai generals to Russian Military
HQ to promote human wave strategies and advise on the conscription of young men.
Related;
Thai Airways has applied for more direct flights on the Moscow-Phuket route.
Immigration will be initiating a special "Duration of Conflict Visa" to Russian men of military age.

 

[nigelforbes]

Nobody has mentioned Russian oil purchases, do they or don't they....they did in 2020.

[shackleton]

I don't think the Tourist tax of 300 baht will make any difference for people travelling to Thailand and there is plenty of them coming Russians Chinese to name a few ????

The air fare is probably their biggest expenditure 

 

[kingstonkid]

2 hours ago, wazzupnow said:

wow an entry fee of 300 bht really? this is people making not coming to thailand

now days its the price of 3 small beers

this is what worries me more than an entry fee

all prices are up for everything 

a hotel under 1000 bht in BKK is no longer available 

but no problem they have great cannabis now witch makes all cities stink like Amsterdam

the quality tourist they wanted are here now stoned potheads instead of big spenders

that a way thailand keep it up

land of smiles? an ever lasting gazing smurk of stinky potheads you mean

 

What part of BKK are you booking hotels in I find there are quite a few.  Not 5 star of course but

[kwak250]

 

The 300 baht fee most people would not even know about until arrival.

 

Just another little surprise to start the holiday.

 

 

[Dogmatix]

Softening of demand?  What better time to impose a special money grubbing fine on foreign tourists which will know will all be stolen by crooks?

[NoshowJones]

If Phuket hotels are anything like Bangkok's I hope more of them go out of business. Bangkok's cheaper hotels around lower Sukhumvit have been going daft with their prices over this high season.

[spidermike007]

8 hours ago, Stargeezr said:

Yup April is about the end of the high season, or Winter season, so it should not be a surprise

the number of travelers is less Mid April until October. Most countries in the Northern half of the world have

good Spring weather until October when the weather cools down again.

They are comparing low season demand this year with demand, pre covid. The industry is hurting. It could take years to recover, after the Prayuth decimation. 

[aussienam]

Spring offensive has begun with Russia buildup of large amounts of troops entering Ukraine. Russian men will be needed to replace their own dead bodies and boost numbers.  Wondering if Putin restricts travel for many more men this year as he ramps up his putsch to try to overthrow Ukraine. Would this affect Russian tourist inflows significantly?

 

However, with sanctions around the world barring these unwanted Russians travelling to their countries, Thailand is one of a few still allowing them. And I doubt global sanctions will be lifted for a very long time.  This benefits Thailand tourism of course. 

Hard one to guess how numbers will be affected. 

 

[Paul944]

Expect more russians to come when Putin announces he needs 500,000  more men to die for him.

That will be long stay tourists spending their money in Thailand ????

Of course there is a small risk that if the number of russians gets above 40% Phuket is considered part of Russia and will be bombed to liberate it.

[Xonax]

5 hours ago, shackleton said:

I don't think the Tourist tax of 300 baht will make any difference for people travelling to Thailand and there is plenty of them coming Russians Chinese to name a few ????

The air fare is probably their biggest expenditure 

 

It's not that we can not afford the 300 Baht. It's much more the feeling of being scammed over and over again.

[moe666]

8 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Maybe they should study what tourists want in their holidays and what are holidays for......

If I come to Thailand on holiday.. I can't smoke my e cigarette, as the fine will huge...

I can't drink a canof beer on the beach at 15.00 as of alcohol restrictions,

Ican't drive a motorcycle, as my driverslicense is not valid here,

I will be scammed by taxis, waterski rentals, daily trips, pay extreem more to visit natioal parks. and because of the strong THB my holiday is extra expensive... Apart from that in my country the energy bill has gone up some times more than 200%, airline tickets are more expensive as there is a policy to discourage flying, because of the enviroment and many more things. In the meantime Thailand wants an extra entrance fee now of 300 THB for a country that can not fulll my relaxed feeling of a holiday...Yes tourists..........and the 50/50 payment of the Government for holidays.... seems good, but it will cost the Thai money too and where do have to that from every month???

Get a international drivers licenses and you can ride your bike.

[Caldera]

The pent up demand due to Covid is drying up, so low season will be just that again.

 

Staff shortage and higher prices also don't help. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a number of visitors left somewhat underwhelmed by their experience. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Caldera

[SoilSpoil]

10 hours ago, wazzupnow said:

wow an entry fee of 300 bht really? this is people making not coming to thailand

now days its the price of 3 small beers

this is what worries me more than an entry fee

all prices are up for everything 

a hotel under 1000 bht in BKK is no longer available 

but no problem they have great cannabis now witch makes all cities stink like Amsterdam

the quality tourist they wanted are here now stoned potheads instead of big spenders

that a way thailand keep it up

land of smiles? an ever lasting gazing smurk of stinky potheads you mean

 

Did you forget to take your meds?

[biggles45]

2 hours ago, moe666 said:

Get a international drivers licenses

There is no international licence as such. It's an IDP  international driving PERMIT and it is only a translation, in several languages, of your home LICENCE. It is usually available from motoring orgs in your home country.

It is to be shown together with your home licence. If your home licence doesn't include a motor bike, then neither will your IDP

[Burma Bill]

12 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

average room rate in the North during December is under 1,375 per night, USD 100 per night is very expensive.

I totally agree. Back in November, I stayed in a "hotel" in Phu Wiang (Khon Kaen Province) which was a collection of new villas in landscaped gardens. My villa was well appointed with all the usual facilities, with furniture and much decor designed in wood. In the morning, there was a choice of cooked to order breakfast - Western or Thai style - with as much coffee, tea and fruit juices, bread/toast etc. as you wanted. Total cost (including taxes) was 500 baht per night. Currently this is still the daily rate. Sadly I cannot name the hotel in case I am breaching bureaucratic Thai competition laws. No problems here with bookings, always busy throughout the year with Thais and foreigners.

stock photo:

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Burma Bill
additional information

[warrima]

17 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

I stayed in a "hotel" in Phu Wiang (Khon Kaen Province)

Pruksa Garden. Certainly not villas. The typical bungalow resort you find in any thai provincial town. Note furniture is usually standard in most daily rentals. 

[Burma Bill]

6 minutes ago, warrima said:

Note furniture is usually standard in most daily rentals. 

Of course it is. What I meant was that in this resort, the furniture was constructed of solid timber and not in IKEA style!!