Real Estate prices in Bangkok is lower than during covid

[Celsius]

I am talking strictly about resale units, not new inflated  units sold by developers. Also, some areas of Bangkok are holding ok, such as foreign ghettos like Thonglor and Ekkamai, but that is also hit and miss depending on the project.

 

My wife who has been trying to sell her condo during covid, finally sold it in April for about 25% loss since she bought it 11 years ago. This is the condo that is located right next to the new train station which by itself should have brought the value UP not down. I told her that maybe she should hold on to it as it is relatively easy to rent being next to Samitivej Hospital and an international university (she sold it with tenants), but she wanted cash in hand. Just for fun, I decided to check the prices today and they now there are a few units at 10% lower than what she sold for. Absolutely mindboggling. 

 

Then I went online to check a few projects I was interested in during covid when the prices were low. Most of them are selling for the same 10% discount and most are the exact same units that were offered 3 years ago. 

 

What is even more shocking is that if you are on a budget and you need a 27sqm crash pad in a well maintained newish low rise in the middle of Sathorn right opposite of MahaNakhon buliding and next to Holiday Inn express you can now have it for 88.888 per square meter or 2.4 million. This unit has also been selling forever and recently discounted by 10%.

 

I am guessing the Chinese that are coming here are not the same Chinese of yesteryear. 

 

 

[BE88]

13 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

 

 

Your wife shows she know business , I think you should factor in the eleven year rent as well, I doubt we had a real loss.

[4MyEgo]

20 minutes ago, Celsius said:

I am guessing the Chinese that are coming here are not the same Chinese of yesteryear. 

Ever heard of oversupply, coupled with high interest rates and the cost of living increasing ?

[Celsius]

4 minutes ago, BE88 said:

Your wife shows she know business , I think you should factor in the eleven year rent as well, I doubt we had a real loss.

 

So net zero with a bank loan, minus taxes, condo fees, repairs and about 10 months when the unit was empty during covid.

 

Yea.... she the brains

[pub2022]

37 minutes ago, Celsius said:

What is even more shocking

 

There is nothing shocking.

It's a market.

If everyone could predict the trend of prices we would all be rich.

[bkk6060]

Oversupply yes.  And,  the Chinese real estate market is basically in a depression one of their largest developers just declared bankruptcy they mostly have no intention or money to buy here.

[Adumbration]

50 minutes ago, Celsius said:

I am talking strictly about resale units, not new inflated  units sold by developers. Also, some areas of Bangkok are holding ok, such as foreign ghettos like Thonglor and Ekkamai, but that is also hit and miss depending on the project.

 

My wife who has been trying to sell her condo during covid, finally sold it in April for about 25% loss since she bought it 11 years ago. This is the condo that is located right next to the new train station which by itself should have brought the value UP not down. I told her that maybe she should hold on to it as it is relatively easy to rent being next to Samitivej Hospital and an international university (she sold it with tenants), but she wanted cash in hand. Just for fun, I decided to check the prices today and they now there are a few units at 10% lower than what she sold for. Absolutely mindboggling. 

 

Then I went online to check a few projects I was interested in during covid when the prices were low. Most of them are selling for the same 10% discount and most are the exact same units that were offered 3 years ago. 

 

What is even more shocking is that if you are on a budget and you need a 27sqm crash pad in a well maintained newish low rise in the middle of Sathorn right opposite of MahaNakhon buliding and next to Holiday Inn express you can now have it for 88.888 per square meter or 2.4 million. This unit has also been selling forever and recently discounted by 10%.

 

I am guessing the Chinese that are coming here are not the same Chinese of yesteryear. 

 

 

China is in serious trouble.  It has an unsolvable problem due to its inverted population pyramid.  It will collapse in due course.  It is a mathmatical certainty.

 

Could also just be a sea change phenomena affecting BKK prices.  Prices in my beachside village are skyrocketing. And in the neighbouring towns.  Prices in rural Australia bubbled during covid when people where allowed to work online and moved out of the city.  Could be a little of this effecting BKK.  

 

I spoke with some wealthy KL tourists today.  They said the same thing is happening in KL.  Now with most work online people want to move out of the city if they can.

 

Hopefully, in time, BKK will again be reclaimed by monkeys and tigers.....provided, of course, it is still above sea level....

 

[ChipButty]

Same here in Phuket I know of some condo's 5 years ago 12 million baht, i see two of them up for sale 9 million baht, I have a unit in the same project 5.9 million I would be lucky to get my money back the only saving grace is it's a good rental unit maybe 95% occupied, 

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Celsius said:

I am talking strictly about resale units, not new inflated  units sold by developers. Also, some areas of Bangkok are holding ok, such as foreign ghettos like Thonglor and Ekkamai, but that is also hit and miss depending on the project.

 

My wife who has been trying to sell her condo during covid, finally sold it in April for about 25% loss since she bought it 11 years ago. This is the condo that is located right next to the new train station which by itself should have brought the value UP not down. I told her that maybe she should hold on to it as it is relatively easy to rent being next to Samitivej Hospital and an international university (she sold it with tenants), but she wanted cash in hand. Just for fun, I decided to check the prices today and they now there are a few units at 10% lower than what she sold for. Absolutely mindboggling. 

 

Then I went online to check a few projects I was interested in during covid when the prices were low. Most of them are selling for the same 10% discount and most are the exact same units that were offered 3 years ago. 

 

What is even more shocking is that if you are on a budget and you need a 27sqm crash pad in a well maintained newish low rise in the middle of Sathorn right opposite of MahaNakhon buliding and next to Holiday Inn express you can now have it for 88.888 per square meter or 2.4 million. This unit has also been selling forever and recently discounted by 10%.

 

I am guessing the Chinese that are coming here are not the same Chinese of yesteryear. 

 

 

Where are you checking these prices?

I assume online, but these are advertised prices, not actual sales prices and most are way outdated. 

[scubascuba3]

Over supply? keep building?

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, Celsius said:

I am talking strictly about resale units, not new inflated  units sold by developers.

It seems many people don't want to buy "used" units.

Used units are often a lot cheaper than new units and even if we add the price of a total renovation on top, then the units are still a lot cheaper. But few people seem to be interested.

Why? I know renovating something in Thailand is headache, maybe a lot of headache. That might be one reason. 

I also guess that it is easier to get a loan from the bank (or the developer) for new projects.

[marin]

Seems the title should be condo units and not real estate. I dont see the value of land going down anywhere in Thailand. The wife just sold 1 rai of very prime land she bought 18 years ago. She made a huge profit by investing in land not condo units all simply by doing her due diligence. 

[observer90210]

I am no specialist of the market.

 

But it could be that with the global crisis both in the east and the west for different or collateral reasons, people on one side need the cash and need sell fast with reduced prices and on the other, buyers have less cash to buy so prices may also drop ?

[Celsius]

45 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Where are you checking these prices?

I assume online, but these are advertised prices, not actual sales prices and most are way outdated. 

 

So, you are telling me that since my wife sold her condo the 3 units that showed up at a discount since then are "way outdated"?

 

Yes, advertised prices and actual sold prices do vary...... normally on the way down.  This in not Vancouver where there are bidding wars, lol

[Keep Right]

Buying real estate in Thailand is a terrible investment. The Thais do not improve and maintain their buildings. Many become slums after twenty years and that is the reason most Thais want to buy new.

[scubascuba3]

6 minutes ago, Keep Right said:

Buying real estate in Thailand is a terrible investment. The Thais do not improve and maintain their buildings. Many become slums after twenty years and that is the reason most Thais want to buy new.

fyi i live in a 30yo condo and it's well maintained, so it depends 

[spidermike007]

The recession that is likely coming next year will not help. But, a lot of Thailand's current economic woes are largely self inflicted. This exceedingly reckless administration engaged in multiple, highly selective economic shutdowns, that favored their cronies, and punished the masses.

 

They also kept the nation closed off for far too long, and decimated tourism. Then they partially re-opened, with draconian restrictions. It could take years for a recovery, that will likely never return to what it was before. 

 

So, if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs, blame Prayuth and Prawit. They are the architects of the downfall of Thailand, the increased suicides homelessness, crime, unemployment, and unhappiness of the people. 

 

And in addition to that, the very things people were coming here to enjoy, have been diminished. Less nightlife, less color (due to the pasteurization and homogenization of the place), fewer resorts and restaurants, and alot of visible decimation of the economy. 

 

 

 

[VinnieK]

Thai logic. ????

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, Celsius said:

 

So, you are telling me that since my wife sold her condo the 3 units that showed up at a discount since then are "way outdated"?

 

Yes, advertised prices and actual sold prices do vary...... normally on the way down.  This in not Vancouver where there are bidding wars, lol

The answer to the question is?

Where are you checking these prices?

[mokwit]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

easier to get a loan from the bank (or the developer) for new projects.

This, and ghost in pre owned units.

[OneMoreFarang]

3 minutes ago, mokwit said:

ghost in pre owned units

That is obviously a major concern which many of us farangs ignore.

But is seems some Thai experts know very fast if there are any ghosts or not.

Before I bought my condominium my Thai gf checked it for ghosts. After less than 5min she declared there is no problem. I didn't ask her how exactly she came to this conclusion. TiT 

[Walker88]

Russian ruble is falling again. Last week it breached 100/$, though some official support has come in. How long can that last? The ruble drop will impact Phuket RE.

 

China is a major concern. Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the US, and Country garden, another major RE developer, is missing interest payments on debt.

 

Millions of Chinese have pre-paid for property that now is never going to be built, and since the companies are bankrupt, they are going to end up with no money and no property. Not sure how the CCP is going to deal with that.

 

Youth UE in China is 20%. Not good.

 

It's looking increasingly unlikely Chinese buyers are going to support the Thai RE market.

 

Seems a good time for buyers of Thai RE to sit on our hands. Having observed several RE bubble bursting (Tokyo 1990, HK late 1990s, US 2008), my experience indicates most markets fall 50% or more.

 

Let it breathe.

[Bassosa]

On 8/22/2023 at 1:06 PM, Walker88 said:

Russian ruble is falling again. Last week it breached 100/$, though some official support has come in. How long can that last? The ruble drop will impact Phuket RE.

 

China is a major concern. Evergrande filed for bankruptcy protection in the US, and Country garden, another major RE developer, is missing interest payments on debt.

 

Millions of Chinese have pre-paid for property that now is never going to be built, and since the companies are bankrupt, they are going to end up with no money and no property. Not sure how the CCP is going to deal with that.

 

Youth UE in China is 20%. Not good.

 

It's looking increasingly unlikely Chinese buyers are going to support the Thai RE market.

 

Seems a good time for buyers of Thai RE to sit on our hands. Having observed several RE bubble bursting (Tokyo 1990, HK late 1990s, US 2008), my experience indicates most markets fall 50% or more.

 

Let it breathe.

I heard a relative lot of Thai condos are owned by Chinese mainlanders. Do you seen any chance of a mass sell-off of these condos if China's property woes worsen?

Edit: I guess they couldn't get the money out of Thailand?

Edited August 28, 2023 by Bassosa