EVs Might Not Cost A Butt Load Soon

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Thanks for that post.

Doesn't matter how cheap a new car is given most in NZ drive second hand cars, many thousands of which are over 10 year old imported Japanese cars. I drive one myself.

Many cars are for sale on the side of the road for between $3,000 and $5,000 NZ $. Unless EVs can be bought at that price without costly battery changes IMO they ain't going to become very common.

Without a doubt, road user charges will be brought in if they became more common on the road, so they won't be cheaper to drive.

So you're comparing the price of new EVs and to used ICE vehicles? And how do you think those used ICE vehicles began their lives? When they came off the assembly line were they classified as used? I believe, perhaps wrongly, that these used ICE vehicles were once new. And that to compare new EVs to used ICE vehicles makes absolutely no sense.

And, as has been repeatedly pointed out, battery life has been seriously underestimated.

And your comment about road usage charges makes no sense also. Is it cheaper to drive an ICE vehicle when the cost of petrol is low or is it the same cost no matter what the price of petrol is? It seems to me that the lower the cost of petrol, the less it costs to drive an ICE vehicle. If electric power beats petrol even when its price is low,, then won't the cost of driving one be lower even if a compensatory registration fee is imposed on EVs?

[Andrew Dwyer]

35 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 

  Toyota and others claim to have in the pipeline (2027) solid state batteries with 1.000 km range and 10 min. charging time. I am sure other will not be too far behind , That's only 4 years away, which by the way would be about the time I would be ready to trade my relatively new vehicle. 

 

  

“ In 2014 Toyota stated they had this mythical battery in pre production “

 

Not sure Toyota have anything Solid State, so far have shown nothing, only empty promises.

 

 

[Bandersnatch]

The cost of providing electricity is not fixed, it varies with demand. To lower the overall cost we need to flatten the demand curve and remove the most expensive peaks.

 

Some people still seem to think that EVs are the problem not the solution. 

 

Many EVs  - all BYDs and the latest MGs come with bidirectional charging.

 

“Batteries on wheels: California to mandate bidirectional charging on EVs from 2027” will mean that all EVs will soon have bidirectional charging.

https://thedriven.io/2023/05/05/batteries-on-wheels-california-to-mandate-bidirectional-charging-on-evs-from-2027/

 

 

If you have, solar, home batteries or an EV this video looks at how smart tariffs can flatten the demand curve.

 

 

 

If you want to understand how smart electricity pricing can reflect the actual cost of electricity in real time watch this video.

 

Yes, these videos are from the UK but they show the direction we should all be going.

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Bandersnatch

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Nope, evenly distributed.

Got a link to something that supports this? I can't find anything. Thanks.

[ExpatOilWorker]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Got a link to something that supports this? I can't find anything. Thanks.

Support what?

The phone/house vs. EV/power grid calculation?

 

[metisdead]

Some off topic posts in violation of our Community Standards have been removed.

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Support what?

The phone/house vs. EV/power grid calculation?

 

Right. A link or a fuller explanation. What are your figures based on?

[KhunLA]

39 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I am interested to know, What is your source? 

Google search the text in the photo, and it should pop up.

 

Quick attempt and I couldn't find, but most sites agree with 2500 cycle for LFP.   More than a few to peek at on G.

[placeholder]

58 minutes ago, sirineou said:

estimates vary widely 

The information I used concerning battery longevity was from Forbes magazine dated October 2022, 

"Experts say an EV battery should last for at least 10-20 years "

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2022/10/13/by-the-numbers-how-long-should-an-electric-cars-battery-last/?sh=2433df972cc3

 

The miles range was from a previous 2021 estimate and might have ben dated. 

I am interested to know, What is your source? 

Better aging and cycle-life characteristics[edit]

LFP chemistry offers a considerably longer cycle life than other lithium-ion chemistries. Under most conditions it supports more than 3,000 cycles, and under optimal conditions it supports more than 10,000 cycles. NMC batteries support about 1,000 to 2,300 cycles, depending on conditions.^[5]

LFP cells experience a slower rate of capacity loss (a.k.a. greater calendar-life) than lithium-ion battery chemistries such as cobalt (LiCoO
₂) or manganese spinel (LiMn
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery#:~:text=LFP chemistry offers a considerably,supports more than 10%2C000 cycles.

[ExpatOilWorker]

28 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Right. A link or a fuller explanation. What are your figures based on?

It is just my own play with average numbers.

A smartphone uses 10 wh/day or 0.3 kWh/month.

Your house = 800 kWh/month

EV = 1,200 kWh/year

Thailand = 200 billion kWh/year.

 

From that you get:

1 phone = 62,500 EVs

[sirineou]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Thanks for that post.

Doesn't matter how cheap a new car is given most in NZ drive second hand cars, many thousands of which are over 10 year old imported Japanese cars. I drive one myself.

Many cars are for sale on the side of the road for between $3,000 and $5,000 NZ $. Unless EVs can be bought at that price without costly battery changes IMO they ain't going to become very common.

Without a doubt, road user charges will be brought in if they became more common on the road, so they won't be cheaper to drive.

If you are looking for a used EV now , I agree, for most people it's not an option.

As to the furfure EV market.Of course no one has a crystal bowl, b ut if one is to extrapolate from current improvements, one could conclude that by the time KhunLA 's MG is in need of a battery replacement cost will certainly be a lot lower that they are today. 

In fact I would not be surprised if some enterprising entrepreneur does not come with aftermarket replacement batteries by then. Assuming there is a market for them. 

Initially I had the same concern, but I realised that I was projecting current conditions to future markets, Personally , after having thought about it, I would not let the future battery replacement deter me. 

 

[sirineou]

44 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Google search the text in the photo, and it should pop up.

That was my first reaction, unfortunately m I was unsuccessful,Perhapse I did not do it right. I would appreciate if you  could provide a link. 

[KhunLA]

11 minutes ago, sirineou said:

If you are looking for a used EV now , I agree, for most people it's not an option.

As to the furfure EV market.Of course no one has a crystal bowl, b ut if one is to extrapolate from current improvements, one could conclude that by the time KhunLA 's MG is in need of a battery replacement cost will certainly be a lot lower that they are today. 

In fact I would not be surprised if some enterprising entrepreneur does not come with aftermarket replacement batteries by then. Assuming there is a market for them. 

Initially I had the same concern, but I realised that I was projecting current conditions to future markets, Personally , after having thought about it, I would not let the future battery replacement deter me. 

Yea ... and apparently 2500 cycles for an LFP battery is on the low end of estimates.  As posted, for our ZS, that's 900k kms.  If just take about 500k of those, extreme negative, that's 25 yrs of driving for us.  Well, for me, as the wife won't be driving that much after I'm gone.  

 

I'm knocking on 68, and will be long gone.  25 yrs, and she'll be in her 70's, and still have 80% capacity of the battery.  Not needing to be replaced and simply less range per charge.  Everything she needs is 5 kms away, so 250ish kms range certainly won't impact here life.  She can even make a R/T to Hua Hin with that range, and still have a nice reserve when back home.

 

How much is a 25 yr old car worth.  About -0-, EV or ICEV.   At least the EV won't require constant maintenance & new parts.  Try getting parts for a 25 yr old ICEV ... good luck with that one.

 

I had 1950 Buick Special in 1975.  Had to rebuild the carb, with a kit that wasn't even made for it.  Since no junk yard had a 1950 carb for it, or anything close.  It actually worked, but rebuilding a carb, not for the faint of heart, even if having the proper kit.

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

estimates vary widely 

The information I used concerning battery longevity was from Forbes magazine dated October 2022, 

"Experts say an EV battery should last for at least 10-20 years "

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2022/10/13/by-the-numbers-how-long-should-an-electric-cars-battery-last/?sh=2433df972cc3

 

The miles range was from a previous 2021 estimate and might have ben dated. 

I am interested to know, What is your source? 

Here is the link that no-one could find

https://zecar.com/resources/how-long-do-electric-car-batteries-last

[placeholder]

13 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Here is the link that no-one could find

https://zecar.com/resources/how-long-do-electric-car-batteries-last

Here's another

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

That was my first reaction, unfortunately m I was unsuccessful,Perhapse I did not do it right. I would appreciate if you  could provide a link. 

I tried myself, and yea, too many links, and not the one I want.  Sure I posted the source the first time I posted the graph.  Some time ago.  So many other sites agree, I stopped looking.

 

edit:  well done Vinny

Edited September 24, 2023 by KhunLA

[vinny41]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Here's another

https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last

Not sure about the 2nd one as they have an invested interest in batteries

Recurrent Motors, Inc is a privately-held manufacturer of EV batteries for new and used vehicles. Recurrent Motors, Inc 

[placeholder]

14 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Not sure about the 2nd one as they have an invested interest in batteries

Recurrent Motors, Inc is a privately-held manufacturer of EV batteries for new and used vehicles. Recurrent Motors, Inc 

I found the source of that. But I see no indication of that from any of their reports or from this source

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/recurrent-fc40

 

It looks to me like they are in the data business. Not manufacturing. And given the relatively small amount of money they have borrowed, it doesn't seem at all likely that they are in the business of manufacturing batteries.

[KhunLA]

Even if not LFP battery, the others seem to be around the 1000 cycle mark, and we would even have a hard time putting 300+k kms on a vehicle.  Especially my wife, and even myself, as my O&As are winding down.  O&As this past year, come end of Oct 2023, will account for 40-50% of our driving.

 

About 7k or our 18k kms already, with 1 more outing up N, and probably 2k+ kms R/T.  Having a hard time finding different, interesting things of late, since been around the country so many times.

 

Just hope the rest of the car, last as long as the motor & battery pack.  If not, battery pack added to the solar system.  Surely the techies will have that down to an easy swap out, when and if the time comes.

Edited September 24, 2023 by KhunLA

[n00dle]

On 9/22/2023 at 10:12 AM, Bandersnatch said:

Not only EV batteries are getting cheaper but also home solar batteries.

 

Back in 2017 I was shopping for home solar batteries at a green energy show in BKK and was quoted:

฿150,000 for 5.6kWh or ฿26,785 per kWh. Four years later I paid:

฿68,000  for  9kWh  or  ฿7,555 per kWh

 

 

 

I built a house in 2011,  solar had no potential for RO at allI. It would have cost well over 1 million baht (closer to 2) for a system that wouldn't  have made us evem  remotely self-suficient and we would have already have had to replace the panels and batteries

certainly a very different story now, 

Edited September 24, 2023 by n00dle

[Bandersnatch]

6 minutes ago, n00dle said:

I built a house in 2011,  solar had no potential for RO at allI. It would have cost well over 1 million  baht for a system that wouldn't  have made us evem  remotely self-suficient and we would have already have had to replace the panels and batteries

certainly a very different story now, 

My main solar components cost about ฿500k. It powers my house and EV. I haven’t used any grid power in the last year. My payback is less than 6yrs.

[vinny41]

6 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Even if not LFP battery, the others seem to be around the 1000 cycle mark, and we would even have a hard time putting 300+k kms on a vehicle.  Especially my wife, and even myself, as my O&As are winding down.  O&As this past year, come end of Oct 2023, will account for 40-50% of our driving.

 

About 7k or our 18k kms already, with 1 more outing up N, and probably 2k+ kms R/T.  Having a hard time finding different, interesting things of late, since been around the country so many times.

 

Just hope the rest of the car, last as long as the motor & battery pack.  If not, battery pack added to the solar system.  Surely the techies will have that down to an easy swap out, when and if the time comes.

Not sure about the MG ZS but the MG4 battery is ready for when MG start installing Battery swap stations

[KhunLA]

42 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Not sure about the MG ZS but the MG4 battery is ready for when MG start installing Battery swap stations

8 yr warranty, if still around, don't think I'll / she'll need to swap it out with <150k kms, if that.

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Andrew Dwyer said:

“ In 2014 Toyota stated they had this mythical battery in pre production “

 

Not sure Toyota have anything Solid State, so far have shown nothing, only empty promises.

 

 

Even if they reduced the cost of changing batteries to $100, by the time they develop them and they become common enough to make second hand cars acceptable, it's going to be so long that an entirely new technology will likely make them obsolete.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, KhunLA said:

8 yr warranty, if still around, don't think I'll / she'll need to swap it out with <150k kms, if that.

I've never bought a car less than 10 years old, so IMO that will make zero difference to most people buying second hand.

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

Some people still seem to think that EVs are the problem not the solution. 

IMO they are no more a problem than ICE cars and they are no more a solution than ICE cars.

 

So long as electricity has to be generated by fossil fuel ( even in NZ ) they are not going to make any difference to MMCC IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

If you want to understand how smart electricity pricing can reflect the actual cost of electricity in real time watch this video.

Irrelevant, Once they impose road user charges on EV cars they will be no more economical than ICE cars. It's only a matter of time before they do impose road user charges, given they cause just as much damage to roads as ICE cars.

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Irrelevant, Once they impose road user charges on EV cars they will be no more economical than ICE cars. It's only a matter of time before they do impose road user charges, given they cause just as much damage to roads as ICE cars.

The same old nonsense. If pre tax electric power is cheaper than pre tax gasoline, why wouldn't it cost less to use EVs.

[Bandersnatch]

On 9/23/2023 at 3:41 PM, Stevemercer said:

Fuel excises were worth $3.77 billion in 2022/23 revenue to the Australian government, charged at about 48 cents per litre of petrol. Nearly half is spent on road infrastructure and the rest goes to consolidated revenue. The average cost to each household is about $1210. To replace this revenue, an additional $1210 per year could be placed on individual car registrations. Of course, this could be done gradually as electric car uptake increases and should also apply to IC cars.

Rather than spending tax payers money on fossil fuel subsidies it could be spent on roads instead.

 

"Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $7 trillion or 7.1 percent of GDP in 2022, reflecting a $2 trillion increase since 2020"

https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

[KhunLA]

36 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've never bought a car less than 10 years old, so IMO that will make zero difference to most people buying second hand.

When I was 18-25 yrs old, then all I could afford was cars 10+ yrs old.  With couple exceptions, wanting an alder classic; 1950 Buick or my older Caddy.   But most purchases were poverty driven. ????????  As stated earlier, only 1 new vehicle/work truck (required) in USA.

 

Here/TH, 2nd hand are silly priced, and in many ways suspect (flooding), I simply by new, along with no desire to be stranded when O&A.

33 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO they are no more a problem than ICE cars and they are no more a solution than ICE cars.

 

So long as electricity has to be generated by fossil fuel ( even in NZ ) they are not going to make any difference to MMCC IMO.

In metro area, imagine diesel banned, and half of or more cars are EV, then what a pleasure breathing the air would be.  And avoid a lot of health issues diesel exhaust causes.   Not a big believer in MMCC myself, but local air pollution would be much improved.

30 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Irrelevant, Once they impose road user charges on EV cars they will be no more economical than ICE cars. It's only a matter of time before they do impose road user charges, given they cause just as much damage to roads as ICE cars.

Very relevant depending where you live.  TH, EVs will be more economical for quite some time, if not always.  Even when on the road, cost to top up is less than half a petrol car.  At home 1/4 or 1/5 the price of petrol, more if having a TOU meter, or solar system.

 

Cost to buy in is the same as Japanese imported ICEVs, or even 1 decent EV (Neta V) cheaper than Japanese badged ICEVs (4cyl /1.5L) made it TH.

Edited September 25, 2023 by KhunLA