Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

One may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, I believe Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. Sure, it had alot of culture. Had. What have it's contributions been since the middle of the 20th century?

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother. But, he is not a Disney character, which makes him a pathetic, aggressive, serial killing despot dictator, who appears to be targeting women and children in his latest escapade, and further walk into the world of darkness. 

all according to your western propaganda, where as in reality.....

[candide]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

One may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, I believe Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. Sure, it had alot of culture. Had. What have it's contributions been since the middle of the 20th century?

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother. But, he is not a Disney character, which makes him a pathetic, aggressive, serial killing despot dictator, who appears to be targeting women and children in his latest escapade, and further walk into the world of darkness. 

Putin's Russia GDP did not grow between 2012 and 2022. No growth during 10 years!

 

Not to mention a population decrease of nearly 1 million in 2020/2021.

 

Putin had to find something to hide his miserable economic failure. A war was a convenient way to hide hisbfailure and to muzzle the opposition.

[stevenl]

26 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

all according to your western propaganda, where as in reality.....

So where do you source your reality?

[frank83628]

44 minutes ago, candide said:

Putin's Russia GDP did not grow between 2012 and 2022. No growth during 10 years!

 

Not to mention a population decrease of nearly 1 million in 2020/2021.

 

Putin had to find something to hide his miserable economic failure. A war was a convenient way to hide hisbfailure and to muzzle the opposition.

what are you sources for all that?

[candide]

5 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

what are you sources for all that?

Here.

It can also be added that Russia's GDP i around the size of Italy's GDP (when energy prices are high) or Spain (when energy prices are low).

[MicroB]

Ukrainian gunner takes out Russian Shahed drone using a gimpy. One kiddies' cancer ward saved.  Technically an air-to-air kill by a helicopter.

 

 

[MicroB]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

One may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, I believe Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. Sure, it had alot of culture. Had. What have it's contributions been since the middle of the 20th century?

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother. But, he is not a Disney character, which makes him a pathetic, aggressive, serial killing despot dictator, who appears to be targeting women and children in his latest escapade, and further walk into the world of darkness. 

 

The reasons why is myriad.   My belief is he invaded because he needs more slavic Russians to shore up his powerbase, and ensure its slavic Russians who run Russia, not all these other groups he is forced to horse trade with. His destruction of Checehnya showed his attitude to non-slavic Russians; they are untermenschen.

 

I don't think he fears NATO expansion with respect to Russian sovereignty. He knows NATO would not attack, but he's afraid NATO will cause him to lose influence among people he regards as kinfolk; the slavs in Belarus, Ukraine, and in central Asia, such as Kazakhstan, So NATO expansionism, real or imagined, is just an excuse.

 

But the timing is complete dictator miscalculation. Why in February 2022 did he attack Ukraine at that moment, because he thought he could get away with it. He assumed the West was weak, that the response would be weak, that it would be much like when he sent his forces into Georgia.

 

I think he intended originally during April 2021, when the weather was good, allowing a

blitzkried attack to decapitate Kiev, and win the war quickly. I think Russia staged a drone attack in the Donbass, creating a casus belli;

 

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/a-4-year-old-child-died-in-donbas-after-ukrainian-army-drone-attack/

 

After that, there were a series of provocations from the Russian side, without a reaction from Ukraine. On 10 April, Ukraine called a OSCE meeting to complain about Russian troop buildups. A few days later, there was a relatively minor confrontation between some Ukrainian navy ships escorting civilian ships, no casualties. The next  day, Russia closed part of the Black Sea to shipping, on the pretext of upcoming exercises, but effectively, this was a naval blockade of Ukraine. Surprisingly, Shoigu a  week later, then started pulling some troops from the border. I don't think this was something to defuse tensions, but because the moment had passed, and the troops needed to be rotated; they had been 2 months in the field, and that part of Russia is bug infected, impacting troop morale. Later on, one of the reasons why the Russian invasion failed, was because troops had been too long in the field and were not 100% operational, with numerous vehicle breakdowns.

 

He thought it would be a swift war; troops had packed ceremonial uniforms for the victory parades, some Russian officers even made restaurant reservations in Kiev.

 

Galtieri miscalculated as well in 1982, in his timing attacking the Falklands. He thought the British would not respond.

 

He and Putin do not understand democracies. Compounding that, Putin has been in considerable isolation over the last few years; he is genuinely fearful of COVID-19.

 

 

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, frank83628 said:

what are you sources for all that?

Russia was in major economic trouble prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

 

If you don't understand that, this entire topic becomes a mystery to you.

[Danderman123]

On 8/24/2024 at 1:46 PM, beautifulthailand99 said:

There is some reasoning behind the Kursk offensive based on simple logic;

 

Option 1: Deploy all your troops to the Donbass front to slow down the Russians who will advance anyway

Option 2: Deploy your reserves and best trained men on a hail Mary mission into Russia hoping Russia's reaction is to withdraw men from the front, easing off the pressure and letting it stabilise

 

Option 2 is the more sound one as there was a chance it could have worked, unfortunately for Ukraine it didn't and the Russians have continued the same pace of advance in Donbass whilst deploying enough reserves to stall the Kursk offensive without sacrificing the Toretsk/Pokrovsk offensive capabilities, leading to a lose lose where not only is Ukraine still getting battered in Donbass but now it's best brigades are tied down in Kursk. They didn't take the bait.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c785z8917leo

 

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Ukraine's strategy is to entice Russia into making micro-advances at high cost, a classic war of attrition.

 

Ukraine knows not to stop the enemy when they are making a mistake.

[kwonitoy]

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

One may ask why has Putin chosen this moment to make his move on Ukraine? As many have pointed out, Russia is an objectively weak state — “Upper Volta with nuclear weapons,” as someone once quipped — with a nominal G.D.P. smaller than that of South Korea. Outside of energy, minerals and second-rate military equipment, it produces almost nothing that outsiders want: no Russian iPhone, Lexus or “Fauda.” If it were not for the minerals, oil and natural gas, I believe Russia would be a highly irrelevant state. Sure, it had alot of culture. Had. What have it's contributions been since the middle of the 20th century?

 

Putin’s problem with Ukraine, starting with the Maidan uprising of 2014, is that Ukrainians want nothing to do with him. He is despised. And for good reason. If he were a Disney character, he’d be Rapunzel’s mother. But, he is not a Disney character, which makes him a pathetic, aggressive, serial killing despot dictator, who appears to be targeting women and children in his latest escapade, and further walk into the world of darkness. 

 

Why did Putin invade?

Because he thought it would be easy, like his previous invasions of neighboring countries

 

He thought by way of incorrect information provided by his "analysts and advisors" that it would be a cake walk.

Drive from the border to Kiev with his armored column and the country would surrender and he could install a compliant leader.

He in no way conceived of Ukraine fighting back, again from misinformation from his advisors that Ukraine would roll over when confronted.

He is now stuck, he can't back out for fear of looking weak.

Ukraine is slowly picking away at refineries, oil depots, ammo storage dumps, ships, aircraft, artilerary systems, rocket launcher, tanks, etc. targets of war.

Ukraine is building up their own arrements systems so they can take the war to the enemy which is now happening in Kursk.

 

[Patong2021]

3 hours ago, MicroB said:

Ukrainian gunner takes out Russian Shahed drone using a gimpy. One kiddies' cancer ward saved.  Technically an air-to-air kill by a helicopter.

 

 

 

 Iranian manufactured and Iranian supplied.   Iran and Russia worked together to  prop up the despot Assad of Syria, 14 million refugees, and 500,000 dead thanks to their efforts. 

[Patong2021]

2 hours ago, MicroB said:

 

The reasons why is myriad.   My belief is he invaded because he needs more slavic Russians to shore up his powerbase, and ensure its slavic Russians who run Russia, not all these other groups he is forced to horse trade with. His destruction of Checehnya showed his attitude to non-slavic Russians; they are untermenschen.

 

I don't think he fears NATO expansion with respect to Russian sovereignty. He knows NATO would not attack, but he's afraid NATO will cause him to lose influence among people he regards as kinfolk; the slavs in Belarus, Ukraine, and in central Asia, such as Kazakhstan, So NATO expansionism, real or imagined, is just an excuse.

 

But the timing is complete dictator miscalculation. Why in February 2022 did he attack Ukraine at that moment, because he thought he could get away with it. He assumed the West was weak, that the response would be weak, that it would be much like when he sent his forces into Georgia.

 

I think he intended originally during April 2021, when the weather was good, allowing a

blitzkried attack to decapitate Kiev, and win the war quickly. I think Russia staged a drone attack in the Donbass, creating a casus belli;

 

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/a-4-year-old-child-died-in-donbas-after-ukrainian-army-drone-attack/

 

After that, there were a series of provocations from the Russian side, without a reaction from Ukraine. On 10 April, Ukraine called a OSCE meeting to complain about Russian troop buildups. A few days later, there was a relatively minor confrontation between some Ukrainian navy ships escorting civilian ships, no casualties. The next  day, Russia closed part of the Black Sea to shipping, on the pretext of upcoming exercises, but effectively, this was a naval blockade of Ukraine. Surprisingly, Shoigu a  week later, then started pulling some troops from the border. I don't think this was something to defuse tensions, but because the moment had passed, and the troops needed to be rotated; they had been 2 months in the field, and that part of Russia is bug infected, impacting troop morale. Later on, one of the reasons why the Russian invasion failed, was because troops had been too long in the field and were not 100% operational, with numerous vehicle breakdowns.

 

He thought it would be a swift war; troops had packed ceremonial uniforms for the victory parades, some Russian officers even made restaurant reservations in Kiev.

 

Galtieri miscalculated as well in 1982, in his timing attacking the Falklands. He thought the British would not respond.

 

He and Putin do not understand democracies. Compounding that, Putin has been in considerable isolation over the last few years; he is genuinely fearful of COVID-19.

 

 

Yours is a good analysis and there is no denying that Russia's greatest threat comes from  its "stanistan" republics on its borders filled with people who despise Russians and their version of Christianity.  However, Ukraine is not innocent either. It undertook many actions and measures that were discriminatory against ethnic Russians. It engaged in actions that would be considered unacceptable in the western world. Ukraine was also a center of organized cyber crime that targeted western countries through hacking and extortion. This in no way justifies a Russian invasion and land grab. What Russia has done is wrong and its long standing support of violent militias, including their mass murder of innocents above the Malaysian passenger aircraft was wrong too.

 

Had Russia attempted to correct the Ukrainian injustices through civil and peaceful means it could have  obtained western support to right those wrongs. Instead it chose to engage in even worse acts and now it welcomes home its youth as  war dead and as  mangled and broken people.

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, ballpoint said:

"Ukraine recap: Putin celebrates Victory Day with nuclear threats to UK and France"

Putin celebrates with nuclear threats to UK and France (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

 

I read the linked article, and yes it has a big headline saying Putin threatens to use nukes on UK and France, but nothing I can see to back it up in the text. Perhaps you can point out the relevant paragraph(s).

 

BTW I guess you missed this, when attempting to prove me wrong. The relevant word is bolded by me.

 

This article is the opinion of the author (Jonathan Este, The Conversation) and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal.

 

Next.

[MicroB]

33 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

 Iranian manufactured and Iranian supplied.   Iran and Russia worked together to  prop up the despot Assad of Syria, 14 million refugees, and 500,000 dead thanks to their efforts. 

 

They are made in Russia now. Technically, its called Geran-2. The Iranian version used COTS componants, and navigated using US GPS. Russia has replaced the guts within using Russian hardened parts and the Russian GLONASS navigation system, which improves loitering. They are built in Tatarstan. I suspect the Iranian versions were ok for a while, but ultimately a bit cack. Iran is good at making Gucci looking kit, but when you peel it back, its a bit poundshop.

 

eg

 

 

 

 

 

Hmm, looks modern. Sort of looks like an Abrams. Its a heavily modified US M60 from the 1960s.

 

 

[tgw]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

I read the linked article, and yes it has a big headline saying Putin threatens to use nukes on UK and France, but nothing I can see to back it up in the text. Perhaps you can point out the relevant paragraph(s).

 

BTW I guess you missed this, when attempting to prove me wrong. The relevant word is bolded by me.

 

This article is the opinion of the author (Jonathan Este, The Conversation) and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal.

 

Next.

 

Putin doesn't make such threats.

But you don't have to go down far in the Russian chain of command to find someone who does. In fact, just one step.

Dimitri Medvedev, #2 in power after Putin, does it quite often. He would take over should Putin slip on the Kremlin's stairs.

[MicroB]

1 hour ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Yours is a good analysis and there is no denying that Russia's greatest threat comes from  its "stanistan" republics on its borders filled with people who despise Russians and their version of Christianity.

 

More to do with demographics. Its not so much that the non-Slavic Russians despise the Slavs. The Slavs despise them. They are pretty racist. But Slavs aren't reproducing, so the next 20 years will see shifts in the country's demographics, which will now accelerate thanks to their frontline losses.

 

You wonder about discriminaton against Russians in Ukraine. Have a read of this Russian paper:

https://csegr.ru/discrimination-against-russians-in-ukraine-eng/

 

Note, it calls Ukrainians "Little Russians", and its little Russians who discriminate against "Great Russians". So how can they be different ethnicities? Bit like the Brits blaming the Irish.

 

Given what Stalin did to Ukraine, its fair to say Ukraine has a point in deciding its had enough of being called Little Russia.

 

While you say you are not trying to justify Putin, you are. You've fallen for Kremlin claims of genocide in 2014 which justified intervention. Nothing Russia said was true.

 

[MicroB]

 

The longest range missile systems Belarus has is a handful of Chinese designed Polonez-M S300 systems with a 300km range.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/25/7471845/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-calls-belarus-pull-back-forces-border-2024-08-25/

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/08/25/kyiv-says-belarus-concentrating-troops-on-border-warns-against-unfriendly-actions-a86143

[kwonitoy]

 

[spidermike007]

12 hours ago, frank83628 said:

all according to your western propaganda, where as in reality.....

So, in reality Putin is not a genocidal, thieving multi billionaire, despot serial killer? 

[spidermike007]

And of course, there is the utter failure of their leader. This is a clear case of psychological projection: Putin dreamt and failed to create a dollar-free world and establish Russia as an “energy superpower.” He allowed corruption to metastasize through the state’s fabric, undermining its security capabilities. With its mass emigration, skyrocketing divorce rate, and low fertility, Russia, more than the West, demonstrates an immense collapse of family and social values, and near total moral bankruptcy. 

 

[kwonitoy]

Our economy is definitely and significantly overheating," warned Herman Gref, CEO of Sberbank, according to Business Insider.

Russia has now reached a production capacity that, according to Gref, cannot be exceeded and is on the brink of collapse.

 

In December, Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Russian Central Bank, also warned of the economic repercussions of Russia’s rapid growth.

"Imagine the economy as a car. If you try to drive faster than the engine allows, it will sooner or later break down, and then we won't get far," she said. "We may be driving fast, but only for a short period."

 

https://www.dagens.com/news/russian-bank-director-sounds-the-alarm-our-economy-is-overheating

The sanctions are like poison. Death by a thousand cuts. Russia had reserves, but those are dwindling. Ukraine is providing the hardest push with Western arms and Ukrainian strength of will and arms. The fight is going on on multiple levels: Cyberwarfare, economic warfare, diplomatic warfare, info war, sabotage inside Russia, and sabotaging the regime wherever it surfaces.

 

What happens now can only be described as large-scale reverse industrialisation.

 

All of that was forecasted, and now it comes to fruition, Russia goes bankrupt gradually and then all of a sudden. The fiscal year of 2025 will be very interesting, Russia can find more tricks to prolong the suffering but with every year that passes the facade will erode further and the war as such is a main driver of their economic demise as the growth triggered by a war economy is not adding any value, quite the opposite, it incurs further costs in maintenance and training of those that should use these war machines.

It is a one way economy which also swallows 25k to 30k Russian men each month which would be the equivalent of the amount of military aged men living in a town of 100k people, and that happens every month. These people are then transformed from tax payers and cheap labor into future lost GDP, each Russian serf roughly could bring 500k dollars in GDP in their lifetimes for the Russian state.

 

The costs and positive feedback loops are stacking up and the sanctions will only have their full effect in the medium to long term, and that is where we are headed in the next 24 months or so, the sanctions need policing and better enforcement to ensure that Russia loses even more money and to force them to go through even more trouble to source materials.

 

Also, the targeting of refineries and increased attacks on Russian targets inside Russia will help to drive up the costs of this invasion and the amount of resources Russia needs to expend to repair these facilities.

 

I'm observing a stunning picture of the suicide of the Russian economy.” Igor Lipsits, an expert on the Russian economy.

https://x.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1798537710120153373

 

Russia will collapse, faster, and most unexpected when people think it will go on forever. Russia will collapse. Every single decision Putin made was wrong and stupid. We must adapt and change. Russia is not going for self-actualization. Structural inefficiency and toxic are written all over them.

 

 

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, frank83628 said:

 

He seems to enjoy killing women and children. And we know from his days at the KGB, that he is a serial killer. 

[frank83628]

39 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

He seems to enjoy killing women and children. And we know from his days at the KGB, that he is a serial killer. 

hahahahahaha, you know how.... a western media channel told you? a us politician? so who are these woman and children?

don't you find it a coincidence that these so called 'dictators' are always killing women & children and bombing schools and hospitals... have you ever heard of manufacturing consent ?
have you ever watched RT, or some independent channels to hear the other side of things? 

 

 

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

And of course, there is the utter failure of their leader. This is a clear case of psychological projection: Putin dreamt and failed to create a dollar-free world and establish Russia as an “energy superpower.” He allowed corruption to metastasize through the state’s fabric, undermining its security capabilities. With its mass emigration, skyrocketing divorce rate, and low fertility, Russia, more than the West, demonstrates an immense collapse of family and social values, and near total moral bankruptcy. 

 

 

you have heard of BRICS right? and you know how many countries are signing up after seeing the US weaponise the Dollar. it might not go away totally, but it will not be the main currency for trade much longer. the US bullied too much and it's back firing!!

[stevenl]

45 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

hahahahahaha, you know how.... a western media channel told you? a us politician? so who are these woman and children?

don't you find it a coincidence that these so called 'dictators' are always killing women & children and bombing schools and hospitals... have you ever heard of manufacturing consent ?
have you ever watched RT, or some independent channels to hear the other side of things? 

 

 

So you're saying he is not intentionally bombing hospitals, schools, apartments etc because RT told you so?

[frank83628]

8 minutes ago, stevenl said:

So you're saying he is not intentionally bombing hospitals, schools, apartments etc because RT told you so?

i haven't watched RT for a while, but in general i question the fact that the US and western media always tells us the these 'evil dictators'  are always bombing hospitals, schools killing women and children. 

 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

The terrorists were at it again...............

 

A British Journalist working for Reuters killed in a hotel strike. Other members of the team also hurt and in hospital.

 

British man killed in missile strike in Ukraine

“This is the daily Russian terror that continues,” he said.
Earlier, Reuters released footage showing parts of the hotel completely destroyed by the strike, with firefighters attempting to pick through the rubble.
The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office wrote in a statement that the hotel had likely been hit with a short-range Iskander-M missile.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2l1py9g4r8o

[frank83628]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

The terrorists were at it again...............

 

A British Journalist working for Reuters killed in a hotel strike. Other members of the team also hurt and in hospital.

 

British man killed in missile strike in Ukraine

“This is the daily Russian terror that continues,” he said.
Earlier, Reuters released footage showing parts of the hotel completely destroyed by the strike, with firefighters attempting to pick through the rubble.
The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office wrote in a statement that the hotel had likely been hit with a short-range Iskander-M missile.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2l1py9g4r8o

'This is the daily Russian terror that continues' could have all stopped back in April 22 if UK and US hadn't stopped peace talks, anything since it on their hands!

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

'This is the daily Russian terror that continues' could have all stopped back in April 22 if UK and US hadn't stopped peace talks, anything since it on their hands!

Could have never started if the war criminal Putin had not invaded Ukraine illegally.

[frank83628]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Could have never started if the war criminal Putin had not invaded Ukraine illegally.

wouldn't have started at all if the US hadn't been interfering in Ukraine/Russia relations in the fist place.