Delays loom for Thai-Chinese high-speed railway project

[snoop1130]

 

In a major transport initiative between Thailand and China, the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) reported that the first phase of the high-speed railway linking Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima is around 71% complete. However, it’s trailing behind its scheduled opening in 2028 by around 36%.

 

This ambitious 873-kilometre rail project, pegged at a whopping 341 billion baht, has faced significant delays, primarily due to financial disagreements between Thailand and China. The Thai section of the railway kicked off in 2017 but has since been plagued by years of setbacks.

 

Anan Nimphodaeng, SRT Deputy Governor, stated that the first phase, spanning 253 kilometres from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima, consists of 14 work contracts with an estimated budget of 179.41 billion baht.

 

Adjustments have been necessary for the draft plan of contract no. 3 to 5, which runs from Khok Kruat to Nakhon Ratchasima stations. To minimise the impact on local communities and aid future land development, the SRT has shifted from a ground-level track to an elevated one, spanning 7.85 kilometres. This alteration will add approximately 2 billion baht to the budget but remains within the overall limit, leaving about 11 billion baht in surplus.

 

SRT is hopeful of securing approval for these changes from its board and the Transport Ministry by September. Meanwhile, contract no. 4 to 5, from Ban Pho to Phra Kaew station in Ayutthaya, covering 13.3 kilometres and costing nearly 10 billion baht, awaits further development.

 

“The Office of Natural Resources and Environment Policy and Planning has mandated the SRT to conduct a Heritage Impact Assessment (HIA) on the Ayutthaya Historical Park, a proposed site for a new station.”

 

The authority has submitted the HIA and awaits feedback.

 

Another obstacle concerns contract no. 4 to 1, the Bang Sue-Don Muang section, with a budget of around 9 billion baht. The SRT is negotiating with the contractor for the high-speed rail connecting three airports due to overlapping project areas. A deal is expected soon, following approval from the Eastern Economic Corridor Office.

 

Summarising the progress, Anan revealed that out of 14 contracts, two are complete, nine are under construction, and three are on hold. Once finished, the high-speed rail will connect China and Thailand via Laos as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with Phase 2 linking Nakhon Ratchasima to Nong Khai by 2030, reported The Nation.

 

By Puntid Tantivangphaisal

Photo courtesy of The Nation

 

Source: The Thaiger 2024-08-16

 

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[Peabody]

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

...the first phase of the high-speed railway linking Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima is around 71% complete. However, it’s trailing behind its scheduled opening in 2028 by around 36%.

36% of what? 

[shdmn]

They still haven't started the eastern route to Pattaya and Utapao.  That was supposed to have been a done deal and started 3 years ago.  Last I heard the consortium is trying to revise the contract yet again.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2843248/eec-rail-contract-revisions-to-be-finished-next-month

Edited August 16 by shdmn

[hotchilli]

Thailand is suddenly realising that main-lining China into Thailand comes with it's drawbacks.

[edwinchester]

10 hours ago, Peabody said:

36% of what? 

Yeah, shoddy reporting.

Original project was for completion in 11 years. 36% of that is 4 years so maybe completion is now expected in 2032 instead of 2028......anyone's guess anyway. It there's a high-speed link all the way from China to Bangkok within 15 years I'll be gobsmacked.

[bradiston]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Thailand is suddenly realising that main-lining China into Thailand comes with it's drawbacks.

I think the other way round. I can imagine the Chinese appalled at Thai incompetence. Probably wondering how they got themselves into this mess. In China, in 15 years, they've built 1000s and 1000s of kilometres of high speed working track. But here in Thailand, it takes more than forever just to get 250 km from Bangkok to Korat. 14 contracts just for that stretch. And then to completely redesign a section of it. What can you say?

[hotchilli]

8 minutes ago, bradiston said:

I think the other way round. I can imagine the Chinese appalled at Thai incompetence. Probably wondering how they got themselves into this mess. In China, in 15 years, they've built 1000s and 1000s of kilometres of high speed working track. But here in Thailand, it takes more than forever just to get 250 km from Bangkok to Korat. 14 contracts just for that stretch. And then to completely redesign a section of it. What can you say?

Som Nam Na ?

[fdimike]

Welcome to the Third World.

[Will B Good]

 

 

 

....and long may it be delayed.....the longer the better.

[Ben Zioner]

And how fast is fast in LOS. In the early eighties the French TGV cut the Paris to Lyon travel time to 1h 50. So Korat should be within one Hour from Bangkok, no?

[klauskunkel]

11 hours ago, Peabody said:

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

...the first phase of the high-speed railway linking Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima is around 71% complete. However, it’s trailing behind its scheduled opening in 2028 by around 36%.

36% of what? 

36% of 2028 years, so roughly 1/3: 676 years 

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, shdmn said:

They still haven't started the eastern route to Pattaya and Utapao.  That was supposed to have been a done deal and started 3 years ago.  Last I heard the consortium is trying to revise the contract yet again.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2843248/eec-rail-contract-revisions-to-be-finished-next-month

The media shouldn't mix up 2 different projects.

The 3 airport HSR was never a done deal, you need more than one party to sign a contract. CP didn't get what they wanted from the BOI so SRT never agreed to work starting.

The EEC is now tryng to get SRT to agree to proceed without the BOI which means revising the contract.

[newnative]

Somebody correct that headline.  Delays are not looming.  There have been delays from the get-go.

[2baht]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

This ambitious 873-kilometre rail project, pegged at a whopping 341 billion baht, has faced significant delays, primarily due to financial disagreements

I want this much....

No! I want more than that

Ha, I ve Already got my sling

Should have waited, we''re trying to drive up the cost as we speak...............

[Will B Good]

 

 

Could this be a bigger cock up than the Tories handling of HS2...????

[sandyf]

45 minutes ago, bradiston said:

In China, in 15 years, they've built 1000s and 1000s of kilometres of high speed working track.

Indeed, but in China they have complete control.  Unlike Laos, the Thais do not want to give them  complete control, hence the delays.

No big deal for the Chinese, the Kumning - Singapore project is not scheduled until around 2050, what's a few years here and there.

I don't think  they have started in Malaysia yet.

[J Branche]

I've watched the progress around the Pak Chong area and to me it appears it would be at least 5 years away unless they get more workers.

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, edwinchester said:

36% of that is 4 years

It is also four additional years of interest on the loan Prayut took from China (and other Thai/Chinese investors where applicable) to build the project.

• The overall cost will be upwards of 300 billion baht ($9.9 billion), equivalent to 2% of the size of Thailand’s economy in 2017. https://tdri.or.th/en/2019/03/will-thailands-chinese-high-speed-railway-be-worth-it/

In January 2015, the Chinese Government announced plans to provide loans to the Government Thailand for railway construction. Several options were offered, such as a 100 billion Baht loan through the Bank of China at an interest rate of 3% and a repayment period of 20 years, and a 2 billion Baht loan through an unnamed bank at an interest rate of 2.9% and a repayment period of 2.9%. https://china.aiddata.org/projects/38130/

• In 2015 the Bank of Thailand policy rate was about 1.5%. https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=223&language=ENG

Academics raised issues of default on the project but under Article 44 the NCPO junta government of PM Prayut under its absolute power authority bypassed such reviews.

 

 

[Guderian]

With the tendency of Thai trains to jump the track, I think I'll stick to my car for getting around. I mean, it's one thing being derailed at 20 or 30 km/hr, but quite another at 200 km/hr.

[rovinman]

20 hours ago, Srikcir said:

It is also four additional years of interest on the loan Prayut took from China (and other Thai/Chinese investors where applicable) to build the project.

• The overall cost will be upwards of 300 billion baht ($9.9 billion), equivalent to 2% of the size of Thailand’s economy in 2017. https://tdri.or.th/en/2019/03/will-thailands-chinese-high-speed-railway-be-worth-it/

In January 2015, the Chinese Government announced plans to provide loans to the Government Thailand for railway construction. Several options were offered, such as a 100 billion Baht loan through the Bank of China at an interest rate of 3% and a repayment period of 20 years, and a 2 billion Baht loan through an unnamed bank at an interest rate of 2.9% and a repayment period of 2.9%. https://china.aiddata.org/projects/38130/

• In 2015 the Bank of Thailand policy rate was about 1.5%. https://app.bot.or.th/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=223&language=ENG

Academics raised issues of default on the project but under Article 44 the NCPO junta government of PM Prayut under its absolute power authority bypassed such reviews.

 

 

 

With that amount of debt,, If Thailand defaults on it, China will probably take over Thailand's Economy, OR, Thailand itself !
Remember Hambanthota Port in Sri Lanka, which is now leased to China on a 99 year lease, because of Sri Lanca's inability to keep up with the repayments  ?

TIT  !

 

[MarkBR]

21 hours ago, Will B Good said:

 

 

Could this be a bigger cock up than the Tories handling of HS2...????

Is that within the realms of possibility?

[spidermike007]

Just agree to all of China's conditions. Have them build high speed rail all over the nation and have them do it quickly. Then, like most other nations on the Belt and Road initiative, just default. Free money. China is going to lose a trillion dollars, and who cares? 

[mithunonthenet]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:26 AM, bradiston said:

I can imagine the Chinese appalled at Thai incompetence. Probably wondering how they got themselves into this mess. In China, in 15 years, they've built 1000s and 1000s of kilometres of high speed working track. But here in Thailand, it takes more than forever just to get 250 km from Bangkok to Korat. 

 

In China, the CCP will send police and thugs to kick people off their lands, demolish homes, and begin construction right away. The CCP don't care as the people cannot take the matter to the courts or fight back. There is no opposition party nor do the people have land rights. The CCP will offer little compensation -- take it and go. Thailand isn't a Communist dictatorship with no land rights.  

 

If you refuse, the government will simply build around you and turn off water and electricity to your house.

[bradiston]

47 minutes ago, mithunonthenet said:

 

In China, the CCP will send police and thugs to kick people off their lands, demolish homes, and begin construction right away. The CCP don't care as the people cannot take the matter to the courts or fight back. There is no opposition party nor do the people have land rights. The CCP will offer little compensation -- take it and go. Thailand isn't a Communist dictatorship with no land rights.  

 

If you refuse, the government will simply build around you and turn off water and electricity to your house.

In a land of 1.6 billion people, how else can you get anything done? Sure the CCP are brutal, but is there any other way?  They modernised China in what, 70 years, from a largely peasant economy to what it is today. Not perfect, but they've caught up and overtaken a lot of western technology, and developed an extraordinary infrastructure. In the UK they've been arguing about a 3rd runway at Heathrow for 50 years, and still no progress. People have to make sacrifices if they want progress.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/17/2024 at 2:07 PM, fdimike said:

Welcome to the Third World.

Thailand is not third world. It has better facilities than some western nations. There is plenty of money. The problem is one of corruption. Every project, IMO, requires payoffs to the usual suspects.

 

On 8/17/2024 at 12:36 AM, snoop1130 said:

Anan Nimphodaeng, SRT Deputy Governor, stated that the first phase, spanning 253 kilometres from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima, consists of 14 work contracts with an estimated budget of 179.41 billion baht.

Having 14 different contracts is just insane, and inevitable that problems would arise, but too many want their cut.

 

The Chinese must have known how the system works in LOS before committing, so they must have their reasons for doing so.

[thaibeachlovers]

IMO the entire idea that Thailand needs a high speed rail network is the scam. Basically an unlimited pork barrel for the usual suspects, and Thailand just got the daughter of the IMO most corrupt man in the history of Thailand with her finger in the pie as PM.

For less than the cost of a mere 800 or so km of hi speed track, the entire Thai rail network  could be double tracked and faster trains put into use.

I've seen no reason as why Thailand needs a high speed rail, other than China wants it to link Singapore to China.

[bradiston]

So why does anyone need an HSR? I've never travelled on one, but I certainly would if I had the opportunity. I'm going to try out the Lao/Kunming one one day. It connects to 45,000 km of HSR that runs all over China. Might mix it in with domestic flights. The airports are state of the art also.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Capital_International_Airport