Baht strength - How long?

[Acharn]

14 hours ago, Everyman said:

 

It’s amazing the number of people who think they can predict exchange rates. The whole point of the Wise account is it lets one exchange between currencies whenever desired. But isn’t that just amateur currency trading? If people are really doing so well with that strategy they could be making a lot of money trading more formally on Forex markets or something. 

 

More likely, I think doing so provides a sense of gratification and that like gamblers people tend to only count their gains. Now some people will insist that really do have genuine gains this way. Great. Go trade Forex. 

A Wise transfer is based on the current price of baht in the transferred currency. They don't gain or lose on the currency purchase, and they take their commission out of the purchased amount. They aren't trading in currency. There are people who are persuaded they can predict what the market price is going to be. There are also big traders, mostly banks, who bid on the market. Most banks make money on the market. Most individuals lose their shirts.

[bradiston]

35 minutes ago, Acharn said:

A Wise transfer is based on the current price of baht in the transferred currency. They don't gain or lose on the currency purchase, and they take their commission out of the purchased amount. They aren't trading in currency. There are people who are persuaded they can predict what the market price is going to be. There are also big traders, mostly banks, who bid on the market. Most banks make money on the market. Most individuals lose their shirts.

My UK pension is deposited by DWP with no charge into my £ Wise account. From there I can move it into my Wise € or $ account, or just leave until I need THB. If the rate's down, and I have to, I just change the minimum I think I'll need.

[bradiston]

2 hours ago, ChaiyaTH said:

I just buy crypto from my euro or dollars and the sell them P2P on online exchanges for THB, this also makes it a domestic transfer that is not taxed. Aside from that it takes like 5-15 minutes on average and zero fees. Do that since years.

I'm currently 5,000 THB poorer thanks to poor decision to invest with Señor Ponzi. But I don't have to sell so no loss yet.

[ujayujay]

Thailand is bankrupt and is now selling its currency reserves to feed the digital wallet, among other things. Collapse will occur soon.

[Banana7]

To answer the OP's question: Basically USA attracted lots of investments because of high interest rates compared to Thailand and other countries. Investment funds in Thailand stock market dumped Thai stocks, converted baht to USD and sent $ to USA. Thai baht plunges to the 36-38 level. Now the funds are returning to Thailand, returning with USD and buying baht to buy Thai stocks. USA interests rates have started to decline. They also anticipate Thailand will sell lots of goods to China because of China's new bold economic stimulus package announced in the last 2 weeks. Also the funds expect Thai economy to improve due to an influx of Chinese tourists because the Chinese will have more money to spend because of the package. That package is worth about 3-4 trillion yuan.

Edited 3 hours ago by Banana7

[Gottfrid]

7 hours ago, thesetat2013 said:

Sounds like my kind of woman. Young small and sexy.

Yeah, here she is

[outsidetrader]

Its out of Thailands,control ,The Big Countrurs and their big investment funds will keep rocking the boat til they get a proper voted in Govdrnment .

So what ever the big boys say in Bkk the opposite will happen to fxxk up its predictions on GDP and thrrefore make expkrts expensive.

Western Investment is on hold ic not already changed their minds .

Tesla not coming ,Suzuki ,Subaru ,Going etc etc Not 1 not 1 British investment project plans on the horizon.

They will bust the BOT again if they need too ....Soooo anything can happen til we have a proper eldcted Government ..

1998 come to mind ;).

[itsari]

7 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Measured against other currencies can be confusing in terms of sustainable living.

COLA adjustments to annual income US Social Security has averaged about 2.6% over the past 20 years; it even remained stagnant (0.0%) in 2010, 2011 and 2016. Then 8.7% in 2023, 3.2% adjustment in 2024 and expected 2.56% for 2025. 

Compared to Thailand's lower inflation rates, US retirement in Thailand based on Social Security benefits in recent years appears generally advantageous. More so for US federal pensions based on the Civil Service Retirement System Civil that is adjusted annualy based on US Social Security COLA.

To quote Alfred E. Neuman: "What, me worry?" 

A realistic long term observed answer

[itsari]

25 minutes ago, outsidetrader said:

Its out of Thailands,control ,The Big Countrurs and their big investment funds will keep rocking the boat til they get a proper voted in Govdrnment .

So what ever the big boys say in Bkk the opposite will happen to fxxk up its predictions on GDP and thrrefore make expkrts expensive.

Western Investment is on hold ic not already changed their minds .

Tesla not coming ,Suzuki ,Subaru ,Going etc etc Not 1 not 1 British investment project plans on the horizon.

They will bust the BOT again if they need too ....Soooo anything can happen til we have a proper eldcted Government ..

1998 come to mind ;).

Interesting prediction from you.

 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, ujayujay said:

Thailand is bankrupt and is now selling its currency reserves to feed the digital wallet, among other things. Collapse will occur soon.

Nonsense! The Foreign Currency Reserves are ring fenced and not held in Thailand.

[Peterphuket]

1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

Yeah, here she is

Considering your own avatar, I wouldnt be surprised if this is your wife.

Was she really angry at that moment

[AndreasHG]

21 hours ago, FlorC said:

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

It does, as the chart on the left below clearly shows (courtesy of Gold Price Charts & Historical Data - GoldPrice.org).

The chart on the right is the price of gold in USD per oz. for the same, six months long, timeframe.

 

[AndreasHG]

22 hours ago, FlorC said:

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

It does, as the chart on the left below clearly shows (courtesy of Gold Price Charts & Historical Data - GoldPrice.org).

The chart on the right is the price of gold in USD per oz. for the same, six months long, timeframe.

 

 

It's not a new phenomenon: AMRO-Market-Insights_The-Thai-Baht-and-Gold-v2_Oct-02-2020.pdf (amro-asia.org).

 

Edited 59 minutes ago by AndreasHG

[gejohesch]

8 hours ago, Bohemianfish said:

Perhaps: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/handle.asp

Thanks, that clears it!

[gejohesch]

4 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Well, you do seem to realize it is a trend - look at a graph, it goes up and down... did you take note and exchange money, bring more money here when the rate was favorable? Did you comment here? 

 

The wheels on the bus go round and round - 

I have regular expenses in Thailand, where I spend several months a year, and I tend to exchange to THB more when I see good rates and less when I see poor ones. So, I'm not worried about periods of 2-3 months with less favourable rates. It's a different story if the "less favourable" rates keep on going for much longer. Even though I'm comfortable enough, financially speaking, and not usually stressed, I would join the crowd reducing time spent in Thailand and looking for options elsewhere. My wife who is Thai is very cool about spending several months outside Thailand, she is a good traveler!

[gejohesch]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

 

When I see it correctly, the currency exchange change is < 10%.

Obviously 10% is significant, but is it lifestyle changing?

If someone lived with 50k a month and now he has only 45k, will that make a substantial difference?

Or 100k a month and then suddenly only 90k a month?

Do many people live so near on the edge that 10% is lifestyle changing? 

 

 

"Do many people live so near on the edge that 10% is lifestyle changing? "

Seems to me that many do indeed, mate!

[gejohesch]

3 hours ago, bradiston said:

My UK pension is deposited by DWP with no charge into my £ Wise account. From there I can move it into my Wise € or $ account, or just leave until I need THB. If the rate's down, and I have to, I just change the minimum I think I'll need.

That's pretty much what I do.