Farage’s Reform UK Surges as Tory Voters Defect in Droves

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The Conservative Party is facing a major crisis as a new poll suggests that a third of its 2024 voters have now switched allegiance to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. This seismic shift in support has propelled Reform to the top of the polls, tying with Labour and surpassing the Tories, dealing a fresh blow to Kemi Badenoch’s leadership.  

 

A weekly tracker poll conducted by Techne UK for *The Independent* reveals that 33% of those who backed the Conservatives last year have now thrown their support behind Reform UK. For the first time, Reform has drawn level with Labour, mirroring findings from a YouGov poll earlier this week. The latest numbers show Reform climbing by one percentage point to 25%, while Labour has dropped one point to the same level. Meanwhile, the Conservatives remain stagnant at 23%, trailing by two points.  

 

Another poll by FindOutNow paints an even bleaker picture for the Tories, placing Reform at 29%, four points ahead of Labour (25%) and a significant 11 points clear of the Conservatives, who have slumped to just 18%. The Liberal Democrats have risen by one point to 13%, while the Greens remain unchanged at 7%.  

 

Reacting to the surge in support for his party, Farage called the polling figures “astonishing,” particularly as they come just after he launched a campaign against Labour’s decision to cancel numerous local election contests in May.  

 

The deepening rift within the Conservative Party is becoming increasingly evident. While shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, a former leadership contender, has refused to rule out a potential deal with Reform, Badenoch’s spokesperson has categorically dismissed any such possibility. The Tory leader has instead responded by unveiling a stringent immigration policy aimed at discouraging low-paid workers from entering the UK—an apparent attempt to reclaim voters who have drifted towards Reform’s hardline stance.  

 

However, Badenoch’s strategy may not be enough to quell the growing discontent within her party. The latest poll results have only intensified the murmurs of dissent, with questions mounting over her leadership just three months into her tenure.  

 

Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne UK, described the situation as a moment of reckoning for the Tories. “Our regular tracker poll this week brings continued success for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, who are for the first time neck and neck with the Labour Party. The Conservatives stay steady at 23% of the national vote, but this does mean they are now two points behind both Labour and Reform,” she said.  

 

Morizzo warned that without immediate action, the Conservatives risk becoming uncompetitive in future elections. “At this time, looking towards the next by-elections too, the Tories should do some soul-searching by analysing the reason for this situation. If nothing is done, the risk for the Conservative Party is to lose the appeal and no longer be competitive in the electoral challenges. And this must be done now—time flies, and watchful waiting is not the right strategy, in this historical moment in particular.”  

 

With Reform UK making unprecedented gains and Badenoch struggling to contain the crisis, the political landscape is shifting dramatically. Whether the Conservatives can recover from this exodus of voters remains uncertain, but the urgency for decisive action has never been greater.

 

Based on a report by The Independent 2025-02-08