Trump’s Tariff Strategy: US can no longer act as the world's economic shock absorber

[hotsun]

On 4/4/2025 at 3:43 AM, uncletiger said:

An interesting analysis. Not completely wrong. But it fails to hit the truly relevant point. The US is completely rejecting globalism, and forging an economy where you either work to better your own country, or you work to subjugate it.

 

Economists like to point out that free trade makes everyone better...on average. It's the on average part that is the problem. Because as Trump has told us, 50 years of data clearly show the vast, vast majority of Americans are worse off. Free trade works by pulling wealthy countries down to the same level as impoverished ones, while making a few who control the global supply lines very, very wealthy. In the process, those countries who were desperately poor might experience a slight increase in their standard of living, but again that came at the expense of the US which experienced a much more significant decrease.

 

What Trump is truly doing is simple. He's ending globalism. Because the US is not responsible to support the standard of living in countries like Vietnam or Thailand. The goal of the US, and for every country, is to increase and protect their own standard of living. The very opposite of globalism, sovereigntism accepts that some countries will be worse off, but the wealth that is in the US, stays in the US. Even if that is less efficient on a global basis, it leaves the USA in a substantially better position.

 

And that is the real war. The globalists want a one world government where everyone is the same. No borders. The US wants sovereignty and competitive nationalism, where everyone is responsible for themselves, with lots of diversity and competition. If the EU wants to continue to push globalism, they will henceforth have to do it without the USA.  The US will work to become entirely self sufficient, with resilient domestic supply chains and trade existing on the margins. Countries that want to trade with the US can continue to do so, but there will be no trade war, because the US is quitting the game.

 

Globalism and global supply chains are dead. You don't make your country dependent on goods and services from your enemy, and right now, the strongest supporter of globalism, the EU, is the enemy.

Trump is betting on Americans. Everyone else is betting against them. Remember who those people are. When theyre wrong they will still have the nerve to keep making predictions 

[jts-khorat]

On 4/4/2025 at 3:51 AM, JonnyF said:

The EU for example is probably the most protectionist bloc in history.

 

Protectionist tariffs make sense, when there is something to actually protect. But producing industry has left the US decades ago.

 

While this might be the plan (?) of Trump to bring it back, he is going about it the wrong way around. You would need years-long education programs, tax incentives, legal changes... and then you could rise protective tariffs.

 

With tariffs in place without an industry to be protected, all he has done is raising costs for US consumers, and the relationship between the EU and China as the remaining lucrative markets getting a lot closer automatically, depriving the US of even more market share.

 

In the end, I guess he will wobble on this policy as well, giving some countries "special relief" -- meaning, those companies who started the billion-dollar-investments to move back to the US will be wrecked latest then.

 

All in all, it is a senseless act of vandalism, hitting the whole world -- but hitting Americans a lot harder. As such, I can sleep soundly, because at least the idiots who voted for him will be totally gutted. After that, maybe reason will come back.

[jts-khorat]

On 4/4/2025 at 3:02 PM, PaoloR said:

Plus - the biggest single con is looking only at consumables and not balancing it against services. For example, is Google tariffed? The money income flow from banking, insurance and so many service industries needs to be balanced against the outflow from purchasing consumables.

 

You can be very sure, as soon as the patience of the EU runs out, this is where they will put countermeasures up.

 

Companies like Googe, Amazon, Oracle et al currently pay basically no tax in Europe... as soon as that changes, a USA without manufacturing will also loose their exporting service industry -- because moving services software and the data in a data center is comparably done in the blink of an eye.

[kwilco]

On 4/4/2025 at 2:51 AM, JonnyF said:

Try buying a Ford Mustang or a Harley in Bangkok.  

Firstly hardly anyone wants one.

 

If you think that the US can just start making those imported products themselves, you have another thing coming - it will take decades to produce foctories that can make those things and they will still be more expensive...unless the business owners can get the government to introduce a minimum wage of $12 per day.

 

H/D already have many parts made and sourced in Thailand (and Brazil) so they've taxed themselves on that. Tey also have assembly plants in Thailand  it is moving production of its Pan America, Sportster, and Nightster bike models from the U.S. to Thailand.

[newbee2022]

12 hours ago, candide said:

And it's been populated by European immigrants, such as Saxons, Nordic people, Normands....

Not to mention the fact that the Royals have been French and German! 😀

Populated by exploited people of their colonies 🥴

[ravip]

 

 

Great speech from a fine leader. No insults, no threats. Calm, but strong speech.

 

 

 

[Screaming]

On 4/4/2025 at 5:43 PM, uncletiger said:

An interesting analysis. Not completely wrong. But it fails to hit the truly relevant point. The US is completely rejecting globalism, and forging an economy where you either work to better your own country, or you work to subjugate it.

 

Economists like to point out that free trade makes everyone better...on average. It's the on average part that is the problem. Because as Trump has told us, 50 years of data clearly show the vast, vast majority of Americans are worse off. Free trade works by pulling wealthy countries down to the same level as impoverished ones, while making a few who control the global supply lines very, very wealthy. In the process, those countries who were desperately poor might experience a slight increase in their standard of living, but again that came at the expense of the US which experienced a much more significant decrease.

 

What Trump is truly doing is simple. He's ending globalism. Because the US is not responsible to support the standard of living in countries like Vietnam or Thailand. The goal of the US, and for every country, is to increase and protect their own standard of living. The very opposite of globalism, sovereigntism accepts that some countries will be worse off, but the wealth that is in the US, stays in the US. Even if that is less efficient on a global basis, it leaves the USA in a substantially better position.

 

And that is the real war. The globalists want a one world government where everyone is the same. No borders. The US wants sovereignty and competitive nationalism, where everyone is responsible for themselves, with lots of diversity and competition. If the EU wants to continue to push globalism, they will henceforth have to do it without the USA.  The US will work to become entirely self sufficient, with resilient domestic supply chains and trade existing on the margins. Countries that want to trade with the US can continue to do so, but there will be no trade war, because the US is quitting the game.

 

Globalism and global supply chains are dead. You don't make your country dependent on goods and services from your enemy, and right now, the strongest supporter of globalism, the EU, is the enemy.

Wow, very well written whomever wrote this. No other President besides Trump, possibly not even the great President Reagan, could have had the guts to impose these tariffs. If Trump is successful, he will go down in history as one of the greatest Presidents that the U.S. had ever had.

[Eric Loh]

Good speech. Singapore is an open economy and zero duties and a trade deficit with US. Singapore also has a free trade agreement with US and yet they are hit with a 10% tariff. This is indeed trouble times for small nations with a bully in the White House. 

[JonnyF]

The EU complaining about tariffs and trade barriers? 😀

 

This is gold.

 

Ramp it up Donald. Don't blink.

[stevenl]

8 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The EU complaining about tariffs and trade barriers? 😀

 

This is gold.

 

Ramp it up Donald. Don't blink.

Your mind is really fixated on the EU. Let it go, this is not healthy.

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Your mind is really fixated on the EU. Let it go, this is not healthy.

 

Feel free to counter my point. 

[JonnyF]

18 hours ago, placeholder said:

All you offer is empty insults. That's because you've got nothing.

 

All you offer is a boring catchphrase.

 

You've got nothing. 

[Eric Loh]

39 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Feel free to counter my point. 

 Trump’s tariff implementation should be targeted against EU’s trading discrepancies rather than a broad sweeping tariffs. The sectors that US see as unfair trade are automobiles and agriculture. Mind you, US enjoyed a trade surplus with the EU on service trade. Not a zero sum game but Trump seem to just bulldozed his way forward without any proper process. Perhaps because he is dumb as a rock. 

[stevenl]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Feel free to counter my point. 

Has been done already. EU tariffs to US imports vary between 3 and 7 percent weighed average, depending on the source. Link has been provided earlier.

[Cameroni]

Quote

But this system has created massive distortions. As foreign countries stockpile dollars, the currency's value remains high, making American goods less competitive abroad.

 

You have to hand it to Trump, he understands the problem, he has to devalue the dollar to make American products more competitive, and he's getting it done. 

 

The grandiosity of the ambition, to restructure global trade. What other politician could think like this?

[ravip]

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

You have to hand it to Trump, he understands the problem, he has to devalue the dollar to make American products more competitive, and he's getting it done. 

 

The grandiosity of the ambition, to restructure global trade. What other politician could think like this?

It’s a shakedown.

 

He’ll remove the tariffs when he receives to fealty he demands.

 

Be that from nations or the Snetican Corporations the tariffs harm.

 

[candide]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

The EU complaining about tariffs and trade barriers? 😀

 

This is gold.

 

Ramp it up Donald. Don't blink.

The US had as much tariffs and trade barriers as the EU. Just not on the same products!

 

Oh, and there is no buy European act! 

[kwonitoy]

20 hours ago, jts-khorat said:

 

Protectionist tariffs make sense, when there is something to actually protect. But producing industry has left the US decades ago.

 

While this might be the plan (?) of Trump to bring it back, he is going about it the wrong way around. You would need years-long education programs, tax incentives, legal changes... and then you could rise protective tariffs.

 

With tariffs in place without an industry to be protected, all he has done is raising costs for US consumers, and the relationship between the EU and China as the remaining lucrative markets getting a lot closer automatically, depriving the US of even more market share.

 

In the end, I guess he will wobble on this policy as well, giving some countries "special relief" -- meaning, those companies who started the billion-dollar-investments to move back to the US will be wrecked latest then.

 

All in all, it is a senseless act of vandalism, hitting the whole world -- but hitting Americans a lot harder. As such, I can sleep soundly, because at least the idiots who voted for him will be totally gutted. After that, maybe reason will come back.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canada-us-tariffs-north-south-dakota-farmers-1.7502342

 

 

 

 

Potash from Saskatchewan powers the North American farm sector, farming has always been a very low margin affair and any added input costs will bankrupt lots of farmers, on both sides of the border

In the article a air seeder made in Canada will go from 1,000,000 dollars to 1,250,000 dollars overnight, because of one man