File photo courtesy of Bloomberg

 

November saw headline inflation in Thailand turn negative for the eighth month in a row, as energy prices tumbled and government initiatives aimed at lowering living costs took effect. The Commerce Ministry reported a 0.49% year-on-year fall in the consumer price index, bringing it to 100.5 for November. While energy prices fell, food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced a price increase after three months of declines, spurred by costs for fresh vegetables and prepared meals.

 

In the first 11 months of 2025, headline inflation decreased by 0.12% compared to the previous year. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, increased by 0.66% from October, and so far this year, it has risen by 0.86%.he Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) forecasts a drop in inflation by 0.15-0.2% for 2025, marking the first negative rate since the Covid-19-related drop in 2020.

 

The TPSO predicts December's inflation could decrease by 0.48-1.08%, with minimal impact from severe flooding in the South. However, concerns persist over a potential 15-20% rise in fresh vegetable prices and a 10-20% increase in single-dish meal prices. Initiatives such as the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment programme have bolstered consumer confidence; extended programmes could further drive household demand and inflation.

 

Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to see inflation between 0-1.0%, predicated on GDP growth of 1.2-2.2% and average Dubai crude prices of US$60-70 per barrel. The first quarter of 2026 may witness positive inflation, spurred by better crop prices and a revitalised tourism sector, projected to draw 34.9 million tourists and generate revenues of 2.79 trillion baht. Yet, challenges linger with plummeting global crude prices and the baht’s appreciation.

 

The TPSO identified continuing negative pressures such as global crude price drops, existing government cost-cutting measures, sluggish economic growth, and an influx of cheap imports that could keep inflationary pressures suppressed, reported the Bangkok Post.

 

Key Takeaways

 

• November marks the eighth month of negative inflation, driven by reduced energy prices.
• 2025 inflation rate expected to turn negative, the first since 2020.
• 2026 forecasts range from 0-1.0% inflation as tourism and crop prices recover.

Related Stories:

Thailand's Inflation Rate Falls for Sixth Straight Month

Thailand's Inflation Set for Positive Shift by Year-End

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-12-06

 

 

 

Is the baht's rise a factor?

Someone should tell the retailers. Everything seems to be ever more expensive. 

Nice words but everybody is complaining that everything is getting more and more expensive almost every week.. And in the article too it is written that fresh vegetables and single dish meals are up 10 to 20%... That is a lot..and in the supermarkets we all see that things are getting up. Maybe they calculate that the 50/50 has an impact and therefor the inflation is dropping, but that is not the reality

The meaning of the word ' plummet ' is clearly not understood by some people.

3 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Someone should tell the retailers. Everything seems to be ever more expensive. 

I agree.. I spend more shopping for food now then I did 6 months ago.. Also this announcement will be used in the future to refuse wage increases for workers. 

 

I can't think of one item of grocery that has got cheaper in the last two years!

1 hour ago, trucking said:

The meaning of the word ' plummet ' is clearly not understood by some people.

In America it means a 500% reduction in prices… 

The slowing down or reduction of the rate of inflation (disinflation) does not make things cheaper - prices do not "plummet", they just increase in price at a slower rate.

 

Inflation is the rise in prices of goods and services, deflation is the decrease in prices, and disinflation is a slowdown in the rate of inflation. 

4 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Someone should tell the retailers. Everything seems to be ever more expensive. 

 I dont see  any plummets. Trying to rent a condo now in pattaya and prices are ridiculously high. 

No actual numbers on the plummeting energy prices. 

2 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Nice words but everybody is complaining that everything is getting more and more expensive almost every week.. And in the article too it is written that fresh vegetables and single dish meals are up 10 to 20%... That is a lot..and in the supermarkets we all see that things are getting up. Maybe they calculate that the 50/50 has an impact and therefor the inflation is dropping, but that is not the reality

Pricesin Thailand droping across the board, i see this already a year., 

 

yes my coffee is up 10 baht and 5 baht more for som o  , fresh fruit and veg and  some rests and bars

 

but when look broader : rents and Property prices are on decline, energy , Pork meet 99 baht i see last week , a lot of crocerys down, and i can go on

 

depend how you live , deflation in THB can be up to 5-7% , or up to 5-7% , mainly for the poor  due to use of income  for  veg,foodweight heavy on income

 

11 minutes ago, gk10012001 said:

 I dont see  any plummets. Trying to rent a condo now in pattaya and prices are ridiculously high. 

you mean redicolous cheap. or you need beachfrontcondo for demeber for 10k with golden watertabs and  steamroom??

 

i rent rooms,average rental is down 30% over the last  years after covid...belive it or not. people asking high cant find tendants except dec,jan

Lies or fake news!!!

 

Not one food item I purchase (produced in Thailand or imported), nor any household items (clearing materials, soap, shampoo, etc), nor medications, nor energy items (petrol, electricity), nor car parts have declined in price in recent years, they have ALL increased in price.

 

Yet more lies from the Bangkok elite.

 

 

1 minute ago, JimHuaHin said:

Lies or fake news!!!

 

Not one food item I purchase (produced in Thailand or imported), nor any household items (clearing materials, soap, shampoo, etc), nor medications, nor energy items (petrol, electricity), nor car parts have declined in price in recent years, they have ALL increased in price.

 

Yet more lies from the Bangkok elite.

 

 

 

World wide con game .   Prices rise by 10 % ........ then come out with the "story"  that some "index"  is down 1.2 % .     

It's always going up .... to keep the slaves running on the hamster wheel .

While the masters play golf  and sip their cocktails.

That's strange lots of things I have been buying are up , although seasonal

prices of fruit and vegetables are up a lot.they must be getting there information

from Donald J Trump ,as he also says prices in USA are down , but shoppers know

this is a lie.

 

regards worgeordie

Frog food is a reliable guide.

 

400g tins were 22 Bhat 3 years ago. Bought some yesterday for 36 Bhat. TBH, it's playing on our senses of fair play. They know we need the stuff, so the prices just get jacked higher and higher. 

Just the other day, I bought what I thought were two bottles of 1-liter Pepsi. When I got home, I noticed one bottle was marked 1L, and the other 999mL.

"WOW"-What a bunch of "BS!" Everything is up in prices here in Ubon. Just more "Fake News."

I think the Government are including the Half & Half project they have

brought out , where at certain retailers ,you can get goods at half price,

but i think that's capped at 4000 B total , spending 200 Baht a day,getting

400 Baht goods .but I think retailers especially at markets  have put prices

up , they were selling Kg of sugar at 43 Baht ,although Sugar is a controlled

item and should be sold at 27 Baht a Kg,

 

regards worgeordie

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

I can't think of one item of grocery that has got cheaper in the last two years!

Lao Kao ?

1 hour ago, lapamita said:

you mean redicolous cheap. or you need beachfrontcondo for demeber for 10k with golden watertabs and  steamroom??

 

i rent rooms,average rental is down 30% over the last  years after covid...belive it or not. people asking high cant find tendants except dec,jan

I mean ridiculous expensive. I'm trying to rent and getting told nothing available condo wise, and hotels the same 

...and none of this spin makes any sense because the Thai Baht keeps getting stronger (which should make almost all imports cheaper for manufacturers and retailers of 'anything. Exporting Thai products get more expensive for buyers of course').  Today the THB is heading towards 31 to USD. So, BoT, tell us again whom you are working for? In last ten years, the THB has strengthened 11 percent against USD. Why?

2 hours ago, gk10012001 said:

 I dont see  any plummets. Trying to rent a condo now in pattaya and prices are ridiculously high. 

If you are looking at English-language online rental sites, switch to Thai language and see if prices are different..

14 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Nice words but everybody is complaining that everything is getting more and more expensive almost every week.. And in the article too it is written that fresh vegetables and single dish meals are up 10 to 20%... That is a lot..and in the supermarkets we all see that things are getting up. Maybe they calculate that the 50/50 has an impact and therefor the inflation is dropping, but that is not the reality

Also time of the year, not a lot of vegetables are grown during the wet season ,same every year, daft as it sounds, often too wet crops die from waterlogging  ie coriander 300 baht/kg, chilis 200baht/kg, farmers prefer watering the crop themselves, they have more control.

Get to the new year when new crops come on to the market prices will come down.

Well, I don't complain.

 

Went to Big C Xtra today, bought Fiamma beans in tomato sauce, large can 38 baht. BBF date 2028

Bought 10 eggs size 0 at 55 baht.

At the checkout my bill was 433 baht, and got an additional 30 baht discount.

In the past few weeks/months I have bought lots of items at heavily discounted prices, like 80% down.

If it are items that last many months beyond the BBF date, or they have a BBF date more than 1 years ahead, I buy a 1 year supply.

 

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Jim Blue said:

Lao Kao ?

Is that groceries?

Eer I don:t think so .....perhaps it was meant as a joke ?

30 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Well, I don't complain.

 

Went to Big C Xtra today, bought Fiamma beans in tomato sauce, large can 38 baht. BBF date 2028

Bought 10 eggs size 0 at 55 baht.

At the checkout my bill was 433 baht, and got an additional 30 baht discount.

In the past few weeks/months I have bought lots of items at heavily discounted prices, like 80% down.

If it are items that last many months beyond the BBF date, or they have a BBF date more than 1 years ahead, I buy a 1 year supply.

 

 

 

 

 

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