4 hours ago, mran66 said:

 

Baht is hovering in the area where it has been for the past decade or more actually.

 

Funny how all thai media talk about baht strengthening whereas what has happened is that USD has weakened as a result of US policies. Just look at eur thb and eur usd (which has about same trwns as thb usd) 

 

Then it is a different matter whether it would be better for Thailand if baht would be weaker than it has been, and whether BOT should do something to that direction. But so far it has been USD that has been weakening not baht strengthening. 

 

The euro is much firmer against the usd, but also weaker against the thb if not as badly as usd.

 

21 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

It's a logical argument you make. But to look at it another way, the big hedgers are wary of Thailand, and of the people who are profitting from this strong baht, and maybe they aren't confident the BoT will take the kind of action central banks would take in most western countries (for reasons we can only guess at). Hedging is a gamble. The big international guns know how Thailand (really) works and are wary of the behind the scenes skulduggary. If they had shorted the Baht they would have lost right? So they remain on the sidelines, making easier money in more predictable markets. And we are where we are, sadly.

 

Right - so basically you say that hedge funds believe baht is within normal range and they do not see gains in betting against it i.e xrate is not that much off from their perspective as we speak

 

Not sure what you mean BoT would not do some others would as all central banks have the same tools - however if someone with small muscles would try to play against BoT, their odds might not be good as BoT has massive reserves (as a result of 2+ decades of building them) - which supports stability of baht. Hong Kong managed to deal with such situation before.

 

But make no mistake - if the vultures broadly would see that baht is fundamentally off, BoT would have serious trouble dealing with the situation.

 

Having said all that, it is interesting to see how BoT will deal with the competitiveness challenge esp vs Vietnam, and whether they would start taking actions to compete with Vietnam with baht. Not an easy case.

3 minutes ago, mran66 said:

Right - so basically you say that hedge funds believe baht is within normal range and they do not see gains in betting against it i.e xrate is not that much off from their perspective as we speak

No, I'm not saying that. They know it's way off. I explained why they aren't moving in on it.

4 minutes ago, mran66 said:

But make no mistake - if the vultures broadly would see that baht is fundamentally off, BoT would have serious trouble dealing with the situation.

Maybe the BoT would have trouble. Maybe not. It depends how big a bet was placed (if something like 1997, then yes, the  BoT would have trouble).

 

If you read between the lines of what I wrote, you may wonder if the BoT works like other countries' central banks. And do they have their own sponsor(s)? Maybe? Maybe not? And maybe that's what the big international guns wonder too.. and maybe that's why they haven't taken the action you suggest. That's my main point.

13 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

No, I'm not saying that. They know it's way off. I explained why they aren't moving in on it.

Maybe the BoT would have trouble. Maybe not. It depends how big a bet was placed (if something like 1997, then yes, the  BoT would have trouble).

 

If you read between the lines of what I wrote, you may wonder if the BoT works like other countries' central banks. And do they have their own sponsor(s)? Maybe? Maybe not? And maybe that's what the big international guns wonder too.. and maybe that's why they haven't taken the action you suggest. That's my main point.

 

BoT like any other governmental organisation in this country certainly has its sponsors, that's for sure. Not sure what those sponsors could do if push came ot shove though

 

In your mind, what is the 'correct' rate for baht then, and how do you come to that number?

I have no idea myself, just trying to rationalise why the xrate is as it is, and having not really seen it  strengthened in past years beyond normal variance from my perspective.

 

 

6 hours ago, Wrwest said:

The U.S. Dollar has become worth less

 

Yes.

But, still not worthless.

 

Anyway, does anybody know when the Baht will be at 35 to 1, as we would like?

 

I am sure that there are those who do know.

Therefore, why not just tell us?

 

 

29 minutes ago, mran66 said:

BoT like any other governmental organisation in this country certainly has its sponsors, that's for sure. Not sure what those sponsors could do if push came ot shove though

 

In your mind, what is the 'correct' rate for baht then, and how do you come to that number?

I have no idea myself, just trying to rationalise why the xrate is as it is, and having not really seen it  strengthened in past years beyond normal variance from my perspective.

I'm not an economist, nor a currency trader - they'd have a much better sense. So I'll just guess based on how much of a hole Thailand seems to be in at the moment, and why that (in the real world) would mean less demand for its currency. Sort of everyday common sense. Like I said earlier, Twenty years ago, or slightly longer than that, Thailand had turned the corner from the Asian Financial Crisis with an IMF loan and Thaksin (love him or hate him), a businessman as PM that even the elites liked back then. Still, the baht was weak - around 40-43 to USD. That's 25% lower than it is today. So in summary - my guess? I'd say it should be around 36-39. But others would know better.

6 hours ago, Lucky Bones said:

What are you buying from the States? 🙃🙃

I also wonder what you or I should buy from the USA.

Except for NETFLIX and GOOGLE (incl. YOUTUBE) I don't need any MAGA crap.
Most American products are worse than, for example, those from Europe. TESLA and company? FCK!

As an EURO recipient, the baht increase doesn't hurt me that much, but it's definitely annoying!

I suppose this is a good time to hold dollars then sell them when the Baht weakens again, 

What peak tourism? who are they kidding? tourism is massively down due to the strong baht and Cambodia conflict, and let's face it - due to Indians and other undesirables making it less lucrative for the people who actually fuel peak season - westerners. There's no reason for the baht to be strong unless it's being heavily manipulated (which it probably is).

4 hours ago, mran66 said:

Well, I have not followed BOT statements,

I was referring to a BOT person quoted in the Thai Enquirer a little while back but did not have enough interest to copy the quote to reference here. And you saying money does not care about a 2%+ difference in rates if different to what I read from economic commentators.

Otherwise I understand your comments, unlike many on here, so keep them coming.

I guess most people agree that Thai baht is artificially manipulated, but this happens in a lot of other countries, the question usually is how they manage it, Thai economy and currency is not a small one in Asia and must be hard to do comparing to other smaller countries around the world...

 

I've seen it before in other places, they manage this for a few years, but usually at the end they can't hold it any longer and they had to let go, then a big 20% or 30% adjustment comes along..., it depends how they managed it and the process, until it is no longer possible...

 

Thais are doing it very well, persistently and so far very successful, we just have to wait and see how long they can manage it before the floodgates overflow...!? 🤔

2 hours ago, GreasyFingers said:

And you saying money does not care about a 2%+ difference in rates if different to what I read from economic commentators.

 

What I mean that for someone who gets 4% on treasuries and 2% on Thai bonds, but believes USD will sink 5% in next  6 months vs THB, or that or that Thai stock market would raise by 5% vs believing US market would drop 5% in same period  its a non-issue - and I guess hard to find an economic commentator that would disagree...

 

It is this type of plays that influence xrates in short term more than cost competitiveness of thai industries, and thats also something that central banks need to deal with as a primary source of xrate volatility

 

I am not saying interest rate difference would not matter, it does. However other things like xrate change speculations and/or stock price change expectations matter even more for people who take positions into those

4 hours ago, ronnie50 said:

I'm not an economist, nor a currency trader - they'd have a much better sense. So I'll just guess based on how much of a hole Thailand seems to be in at the moment, and why that (in the real world) would mean less demand for its currency. Sort of everyday common sense. Like I said earlier, Twenty years ago, or slightly longer than that, Thailand had turned the corner from the Asian Financial Crisis with an IMF loan and Thaksin (love him or hate him), a businessman as PM that even the elites liked back then. Still, the baht was weak - around 40-43 to USD. That's 25% lower than it is today. So in summary - my guess? I'd say it should be around 36-39. But others would know better.

 

Thailand a hole?

 

Thai economy is VERY different from those Thaksin days what comes to forex generating things i.e exports and tourism, both of which have been driving the economy and bath value

 

As far as BoT reporting can be trusted, demand for thai currency seems to have been fairly strong:

- Export has been ticking record numbers in range of $30B monthly (I would estimate this is partially in preparation to US tariffs, but still)

- Forex reserves are at all-time high and have now exceeded pre-covid levels (i.e someone had wanted to buy baht at current levels, low oil prices also supported)

- In past 6mo current account is on positive side (regardless of tourism low season)

 

so all that correlates with stable demand for baht

 

Having said that, future has substantial risks due to US dollar sunk so much, and the tariffs, leading to reduced exports to US and also other USD markets. Also the disappearance of chinese tourist masses hurts. Result might well be reduced demand for baht and consequent (natural) weakening of it vs other currencies.

 

If so, and ow much, will see in coming months. However at least the story is that there is substantial new foreign investment coming in for various manufacturing esp driven by chinese companies who still intend to move their production out of china due to US political worries, so doom might be premature. 

 

The bigger challenge currently is the domestic economy due to people being indebted beyond their ears, and the domestic demand growth fueled by borrowing can't continue any more

 

 

 

11 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

If you say so, but I don't believe you.

 

So the last high of the thb in febr 25 doesn't  count ??

I'm not surprised a lefty can't read a simple graph.

For you people 1 + 1 = 3.

6 minutes ago, FlorC said:

So the last high of the thb in febr 25 doesn't  count ??

I'm not surprised a lefty can't read a simple graph.

For you people 1 + 1 = 3.

 

Oh, a cherry picking MAGA.

 

For you people, tariffs are taxes.

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

 

Oh, a cherry picking MAGA.

 

For you people, tariffs are taxes.

What cherry picking ?

 

8 hours ago, mran66 said:

 

You seriously believe that in today's open and fluid capital markets a bunch of wealthy thais can beat the big hedge funds if they believe currency is substantially off the mark in terms of valuation? Central Bank certainly can influence to some extent by intervening, however if the big vultures see discrepancy vs reality, BOT easily runs out of steam (as they did in 1997). Even Bank of England did in 1992.

 

With quite some help from George S.

48 minutes ago, mran66 said:

The bigger challenge currently is the domestic economy due to people being indebted beyond their ears, and the domestic demand growth fueled by borrowing can't continue any more

Right, Agree forex reserves are flush for Thailand. Better than usual.

 

But the above point you make about household debt is the 800 pound gorilla and it is much more telling than the rosy picture the BoT tries to paint. Again, I'm not an economist, but common sense would tell us that the huge and widespread mountain of household debt is because of unemplyment and rising costs of living. That is not the image of a strong economy. Outside of Bangkok, the average Thai is suffering in ways not seen for a generation.

28 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

Right, Agree forex reserves are flush for Thailand. Better than usual.

 

But the above point you make about household debt is the 800 pound gorilla and it is much more telling than the rosy picture the BoT tries to paint. Again, I'm not an economist, but common sense would tell us that the huge and widespread mountain of household debt is because of unemplyment and rising costs of living. That is not the image of a strong economy. Outside of Bangkok, the average Thai is suffering in ways not seen for a generation.

 

I am not an economist either, nor a specialist on thai debt. However my understanding is that the primary reason behind the debt is that debt has been offered and readily available from banks to people who are not really creditworthy - not understanding what it means to pay back debt if circumstances change - and they have used it for more or less hedonistic purposes of consumption (like new cars, nice homes etc that they might not afford really). People have just used the easy credit to buy things that they want, without worrying too much how to pay it back (have few cases like that among my thai acquintances too...sometimes I feel they cant understand the difference between their own money and borrowed money...).

 

Then the other part is the large number of farmers who are effectively enslaved serfs (though nominally free, even on their own piece of land), forced to run their farms on credit, barely making ends meet (often times govt actually makes their ends meet with subsidies for crops prices).

 

But this is mostly domestic economy issue and not impacting baht xrate too much. Those indebted people have loans denominated in baht, not USD like in 1997. But yes it is a component of the structural issues the country should address, however is not easy without revolution (russia did not deal with the serf issue properly before 1917 either as the masters had no incentive to deal with the issue - and once they understood it, it was too late...) . Anyway, that is a major issue for govt to deal with, however it is largely separate from baht valuation (non)changes currently

 

So in summary, my understanding just looking at the BoT numbers, the part of the economy impacting xrates  has been doing OK until now (which kind of supports sustained value of baht). Then it is a completely different question whether can say the same one year later with the risks at hand from the weakened USD, tariffs, changes in world politics and economy etc.

 

But to sum it up, I stick to my original point that baht has not really strengthened, it is USD that has weakened...

12 hours ago, mordothailand said:

i just looked, and i have never seen thai baht so strong vs swedish krona.

you guys need to cut down on lady drinks or you'll go broke

Then you haven't looked far enough. Today 1 SEK is 3.38 Baht. 

February 2nd this year, 1 SEK was 3.02 Baht. A lot stronger, strongest I have seen.

For an 8 months period around that time, before and after, it was stronger than today.

10 hours ago, mran66 said:

my understanding is that the primary reason behind the debt is that debt has been offered and readily available from banks to people who are not really creditworthy

I'm not certain that's entirely true. My own understanding is loans are received from loansharks or family aquaintances, particularly by poorer people for whom the bank won't lend. They are probably the majority and don't have the means to pay back. My main point was most/many are unemployed or in the infomral economy and struggle (more than historic norms) to make a living, thus the loansharking out of desperation.

 

That drags down the economy in general, and raises doubt about the BoT claims of steady factory exports, further raising questions about a strong baht. Fewer tourists don't help.

 

But anyway, I take the point about domestic vs international demand on the baht, and don't want to belabor this. I don't know either why there hasn't been a raid on the baht by international players, other than they are afraid they'll lose the bet.

24 minutes ago, ronnie50 said:

I'm not certain that's entirely true. My own understanding is loans are received from loansharks or family aquaintances, particularly by poorer people for whom the bank won't lend. They are probably the majority and don't have the means to pay back. My main point was most/many are unemployed or in the infomral economy and struggle (more than historic norms) to make a living, thus the loansharking out of desperation.

 

That drags down the economy in general, and raises doubt about the BoT claims of steady factory exports, further raising questions about a strong baht. Fewer tourists don't help.

 

But anyway, I take the point about domestic vs international demand on the baht, and don't want to belabor this. I don't know either why there hasn't been a raid on the baht by international players, other than they are afraid they'll lose the bet.

 

Right, when using word 'bank' I actually thought financiers in broader sense, incl peer to peer financing.

 

Anyway point was that people have been borrowing to max out or beyond their ability to pay back, leading  to current situation that can't really grow domestic economy by individual borrowing any more, thus the shift to govt borrowing and tests with helicopter money 

 

But the impact of those poor masses to baht xrate being low or high is limited

 

 

22 hours ago, BusyB said:

 

The euro is much firmer against the usd, but also weaker against the thb if not as badly as usd.

 

 

yes by default so as USD has weakened quite a bit

 

Eur-thb is actually pretty close to 10 year average right now, trend being pretty flat. For the most part has been 38 plusminus 2 thb.

 

I recall I sent some cash to buy a house 13 years ago, and the rate then was pretty close to what it is today i.e against euro baht has actually been very stable, obviously with the typical variation that xrates tend to have depending how the winds blow.

 

 

10 hours ago, thaibreaker said:

Then you haven't looked far enough. Today 1 SEK is 3.38 Baht. 

February 2nd this year, 1 SEK was 3.02 Baht. A lot stronger, strongest I have seen.

For an 8 months period around that time, before and after, it was stronger than today.

you must have a blast in LOS

21 hours ago, ronnie50 said:

So in summary - my guess? I'd say it should be around 36-39. But others would know better.

 

Was thinking about this 'what value of baht should be' issue...kind of intrigues me what the perspective of people who say baht is too strong actually is, and to understand the issue better would like to hear people explaining the logic behind their thinking.

 

As a long time resident who lives off funds outside of the country, I of course wish that baht would be a lot cheaper so that my living costs would be even lower than they are. However that has nothing to do with my logical reasoning and understanding why it is not, at least so far (as said, future might well be different from the past)

 

Sometime back US was actually blaming Thailand being a 'currency manipulator', implying that BoT was keeping baht (artificially) too low vs USD, so that is kind of contradicting what the perception seems to be. But i think those allegations have now been brushed off.

 

For a country whose

- exports have been steadily growing,

- has massive tourism driven forex revenues

and as result of those

- current account is systematically positive (pre-covid was a lot - tens of billions a year - positive, after covid less, mostly due to slow tourism recovery. But still positive).

- forex reserves have been constantly growing (with the exception of covid period) reaching all time high now

(These is exactly the reasons US is justifying the tariffs).

 

Thailand does not have capital controls like e.g China, so xrates are defined in the capital markets without hard set boundaries.

 

So for me would be kind of odd if currency of such country would have been systematically weakening. Thus my question is why should it be lower (other than the wish for those who live off funds overseas). If baht would be weaker, the current account excess and forex reserves should actually grow, contrary what US wants

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, mordothailand said:

you must have a blast in LOS

What do you mean? You wrote a comment that shows you have no clue about the Swedish kroners vs Thai Baht. I corrected it. You had "never seen" something that has been obvious for a while in less than a year ago.

 

Why are you questioning my happiness here in Thailand? I couldn't be happier, I'm having a blast. This my home now, and I love it.

8 minutes ago, thaibreaker said:

What do you mean? You wrote a comment that shows you have no clue about the Swedish kroners vs Thai Baht. I corrected it. You had "never seen" something that has been obvious for a while in less than a year ago.

 

Why are you questioning my happiness here in Thailand? I couldn't be happier, I'm having a blast. This my home, and I love it.

with the currency being what it is now, it gets tight

Only currency in the world that doesn't drop like a stone when there's a military coup, or the country goes to war.

On 12/15/2025 at 12:16 PM, ikke1959 said:

It is amazing that the THB is strenghten even by all negative news.. Normally the THB would weaken, but I believe that everything is been done at the moment to damage the country as much as possible as they have now someone to blame...... Cambodia..... but it is inside Thailand were they manipulate

For what's its worth President Trump has said for Thailand to stop manipulating the currency market ? Another negative piece of news high season not as high as last year ?

gold gold gold