Rubber Trees

[cobbler]

See there another how longs a piece of shit string. Down here its all 60% to owner 40% to worker. Worker cuts grass,and splits 60 40 with pui/fertilizer also. So the variables r various variably varied. ??????

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[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, grollies said:

If you're talking to Thais who tap their own rubber versus farang who employ tappers on a 50/50 split then the figures from the Thai guys may well be double that of the farang guys, income-wise.

 

Just a thought. If you asked the Thais how much cup they were producing a year kg you may get similar figures.

The information from both sources at the time was, both tapping their own land and the figures being on a gross per month basis.

 

The only thing I can think of in the defence of the Thai's is, that the Farangs didn't tap their trees correctly, or had someone tap them poorly from the first day, and the flow on has been poor ever since, or their trees are crappy ? 

Edited October 20, 2017 by 4MyEgo

[grollies]

1 hour ago, cobbler said:

See there another how longs a piece of shit string. Down here its all 60% to owner 40% to worker. Worker cuts grass,and splits 60 40 with pui/fertilizer also. So the variables r various variably varied. ??????

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Different where I am. With the price this low its 50/50 split. I cut the grass and pay for fertilizer, tappers dig it in.

 

You and TG are spot on with your comments.

 

This is our first full season in tapping 9 year old trees. 50cm diameter at 1m with a 25cm tapline should give us around 4,000kg for the full season on 1,000 trees which I reckon is about right.

 

Trees are growing nicely, need to do my annual growth check on tree diameter. As they grow, increasing tapline, more yield per tree. If the price goes back up to B39/kg for cup (as Februray last) we'd be well-chuffed.

[grollies]

14 hours ago, reenatinnakor said:

Interesting thread. I guess it all depends as with pretty much everything else in life. But what we can be sure of is that it's not a short term investment.... you are in it for a very long time if not for life! And the ROI doesn't make sense.... probably 15 years to get your money back and be in profit.... Or 10 years if you buy land producing rubber already. But then if it was making money then why would someone sell? Durr... Because probably rubber can't trees can't make money or they can't cover the costs every year. Like cobbler keeps saying if you have a few m baht to spend, there are many ways to make money from farming and get an ROI in a short time.

 

Anyway I was asking for a spreadsheet so I did one myself....it's very raw and basic, but feel free to download and modify.

 

Assumptions:    
76 trees per Rai, 3 metres between trees and 7 metres between rows    
    
Fertiliser - One 50 kilo bag per Rai twice a year    
    
290 kg/rai/year based on Thai Agriculture Ministry figures   
    
Cost thb per tree for 5 years    100
Fertiliser 2 bags per rai / year    2,000
Labour and Equip per year per rai    2,600
Purchase Price Land per Rai    50,000
Seedling Costs    30
Yield in kg per rai    290
Price thb per kg    60
Trees per rai    76
Grazing and Planting Costs per Rai    2,000
THB / USD Exchange rate    33

 

Based on these assumptions....if you need to purchase land... 50 rai would be 3800 trees and cost you an initial outlay of 2.7m thb and 7 year total accumulated cost would be 4.3m thb and you wouldn't break even until year 15!! Anyway.... this is just a rough guess, so don't be a keyboard warrior back. Although opinions very welcome.

 

Off course if you did have 50 rai of land already and didn't need to buy it then your initial cost would just be 240k thb and 7 year accumulated cost would just be 1.8m thb and you would break even by year 10...just 3 years after the trees start to produce.

 

You can download the spreadsheet here...

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2o86aipqf4ik5ov/rubber tree costs.xlsx?dl=0

 

 

If I had 100 rai starting out, one thing I'd definitely be looking at is a CP 45-day chicken set up.

 

I forget the figures (they're on a farming thread somewhere on TVF) but a 25k chicken shed would set you back around B1.5m

 

But with 4-5 cycles per year break-even is end year two.

 

Risks? Yes but with good hygiene, bio-controls, etc, no more than with the rubber price fluctuations and income from day 45.

[thaiguzzi]

13 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

That didn't really answer my question.

 

What I provided were examples, i.e. I am aware that the season can be from 9 to 12 months depending on weather conditions etc etc

 

From my discussions with owners of rubber trees, that is the information I was provided, i.e. per tree, apologies if we are not in your league of having tens of thousand of trees er Rai to work it out on a per Rai basis. 

 

A string is pretty long, hence the reason I was asking the question which you couldn't answer

You are still not aware. There is NO such thing as a 12 month tapping season. Nor 11 months. Rubber trees are deciduous , ie they lose their leaves for 3-4 weeks and you DO NOT tap in this period before or after.

[thaiguzzi]

13 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I don't intend it to come across as being rough, and as usual appreciate everyone's comments and feedback on TVF, I have also contributed much on TVF.

 

What I suppose I am am asking, is a question that may be difficult for too many to answer, i.e. knowing its not a cut and dry question, but surely a rough guide as to what 1,000 trees should be able to produce in kg per month or baht per month shouldn't be rocket science ?

 

I hope I don;t get anyone's noses out of joint for asking what I see to be a simple question, really 555

Ok ok ok. Got my books out. Last year was our 6th tapping season.

We sold 28,909 kgs of cup rubber. We were tapping 4250 trees from a total of 4900 trees.

That works out @ 6.8 kgs per tree.

That 28,909 kgs of cup equated to a gross of 930,424 baht of which we got 556,634 baht, less the 59,644 baht I spent on the farm = 496,990 baht profit.

Taking it even further and more daft, each tree made me 117 baht. On average...

Happy?

But it don't work out like that, because I've got some monsters that have stopped producing, I've got some monsters that piss it out, I've got some medium trees that produce fantastic, and some that produce poor. Then I've got some that were too small and have just been opened at 13 y/o.

How long is a piece of string.

If a Thai has got 20 rai, then a husband/wife team can tap it and its 100% profit, no split.

Ditto, cup, latex and sheet are all different kilo percentages in weight, volume and production.

How long is a piece of string anyway?

[4MyEgo]

32 minutes ago, thaiguzzi said:

Ok ok ok. Got my books out. Last year was our 6th tapping season.

We sold 28,909 kgs of cup rubber. We were tapping 4250 trees from a total of 4900 trees.

That works out @ 6.8 kgs per tree.

That 28,909 kgs of cup equated to a gross of 930,424 baht of which we got 556,634 baht, less the 59,644 baht I spent on the farm = 496,990 baht profit.

Taking it even further and more daft, each tree made me 117 baht. On average...

Happy?

But it don't work out like that, because I've got some monsters that have stopped producing, I've got some monsters that piss it out, I've got some medium trees that produce fantastic, and some that produce poor. Then I've got some that were too small and have just been opened at 13 y/o.

How long is a piece of string.

If a Thai has got 20 rai, then a husband/wife team can tap it and its 100% profit, no split.

Ditto, cup, latex and sheet are all different kilo percentages in weight, volume and production.

How long is a piece of string anyway?

Thanks Thaiguzzi, very happy 555

 

Very bloody long it would appear, lots of grey in between the black and white, so you would be better of saying if I calculate 10,000 baht on 1,000 trees, deduct 50% for unpredictable's, as you have shown and back at where one started, break even once you pay for fertilisers, etc etc, i.e. if you are tapping them yourself.

 

ASX is a better producer for me, up, down, but still sailing smoothly in the 5% - 9% range without the headaches.

[cobbler]

If I had 100 rai starting out, one thing I'd definitely be looking at is a CP 45-day chicken set up.
 
I forget the figures (they're on a farming thread somewhere on TVF) but a 25k chicken shed would set you back around B1.5m
 
But with 4-5 cycles per year break-even is end year two.
 
Risks? Yes but with good hygiene, bio-controls, etc, no more than with the rubber price fluctuations and income from day 45.
[/quotei wouldnt do it but i know people who do that and some who do pigs. Cp teach you all u need to know.
The family who do the pigs say"given the time again they not go in with cp.why give them money? We r doing all the work" having said that they still make decent money

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[cobbler]

If I had 100 rai starting out, one thing I'd definitely be looking at is a CP 45-day chicken set up.
 
I forget the figures (they're on a farming thread somewhere on TVF) but a 25k chicken shed would set you back around B1.5m
 
But with 4-5 cycles per year break-even is end year two.
 
Risks? Yes but with good hygiene, bio-controls, etc, no more than with the rubber price fluctuations and income from day 45.
[/quotei wouldnt do it but i know people who do that and some who do pigs. Cp teach you all u need to know.
The family who do the pigs say"given the time again they not go in with cp.why give them money? We r doing all the work" having said that they still make decent money

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[cobbler]

If I had 100 rai starting out, one thing I'd definitely be looking at is a CP 45-day chicken set up.
 
I forget the figures (they're on a farming thread somewhere on TVF) but a 25k chicken shed would set you back around B1.5m
 
But with 4-5 cycles per year break-even is end year two.
 
Risks? Yes but with good hygiene, bio-controls, etc, no more than with the rubber price fluctuations and income from day 45.
[/quotei wouldnt do it but i know people who do that and some who do pigs. Cp teach you all u need to know.
The family who do the pigs say"given the time again they not go in with cp.why give them money? We r doing all the work" having said that they still make decent money

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[vogie]

Rubber reached an all time low of 146.40 in January 2016, but I'm sure it will bounce back.

[grollies]

1 minute ago, cobbler said:

1 hour ago, grollies said:

If I had 100 rai starting out, one thing I'd definitely be looking at is a CP 45-day chicken set up.
 
I forget the figures (they're on a farming thread somewhere on TVF) but a 25k chicken shed would set you back around B1.5m
 
But with 4-5 cycles per year break-even is end year two.
 
Risks? Yes but with good hygiene, bio-controls, etc, no more than with the rubber price fluctuations and income from day 45.
[/quotei wouldnt do it but i know people who do that and some who do pigs. Cp teach you all u need to know.
The family who do the pigs say"given the time again they not go in with cp.why give them money? We r doing all the work" having said that they still make decent money

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With the chickens, CP deliver day old chicks and all the feed. They collect again at 45 days when the chickens are full grown.

 

I think the margin was around B5/bird. Say B4/bird x 4 times per year on 25,000 birds gives B400k excluding labour, heating, water, etc. But selling chicken shit should cover those costs. ROI say 4 years, not two.

 

All back of fag packet calcs though.........bit like rubber 

[cobbler]

To be honest i have no idea how this chicken post got here in the rubber section.lol mustve accidentally copy and pasted it. I think its a very old post of mine. <deleted> scratches head

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[thaiguzzi]

5 hours ago, vogie said:

Rubber reached an all time low of 146.40 in January 2016, but I'm sure it will bounce back.

146.40 what?

[philo]

I would like to ask a question on rubber yield variance.

 

I read everywhere a "standard" yield 290 kg / rai /year (also 200-400). My ex wife has 39 rai with the standard ca. 700 trees per rai aged some 12-16 years in Bueng Kan. We have endless discussions on what I should pay in support for our children at the same time as she keeps tens of thousands bath from this rubber land (which I paid a large part of buying and maintaining) out of the deal.

 

I managed to get hold of some numbers from the rubber buyer regarding this week: From the three plots 9 / 20 / 10 rai she sold 407 / 620 / 419 kg. This is 1446 kg from 39 rai in a 2 weeks or a bit longer period. (Based on the national average the yield should be some 290kg divided by 20 half-months times 39 rai = 565.5 kg for 39 rai in two weeks).

 

If I extrapolate her yield to 10 months, I get 741 or so kg / rai per year. Is my numbers or math wrong, or is this common / very good / even possible?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

[thaiguzzi]

3 hours ago, philo said:

I would like to ask a question on rubber yield variance.

 

I read everywhere a "standard" yield 290 kg / rai /year (also 200-400). My ex wife has 39 rai with the standard ca. 700 trees per rai aged some 12-16 years in Bueng Kan. We have endless discussions on what I should pay in support for our children at the same time as she keeps tens of thousands bath from this rubber land (which I paid a large part of buying and maintaining) out of the deal.

 

I managed to get hold of some numbers from the rubber buyer regarding this week: From the three plots 9 / 20 / 10 rai she sold 407 / 620 / 419 kg. This is 1446 kg from 39 rai in a 2 weeks or a bit longer period. (Based on the national average the yield should be some 290kg divided by 20 half-months times 39 rai = 565.5 kg for 39 rai in two weeks).

 

If I extrapolate her yield to 10 months, I get 741 or so kg / rai per year. Is my numbers or math wrong, or is this common / very good / even possible?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

For the love of God! Another one!

Read the above. There is no average! Dec-Jan will have 3 times the output of July-Aug.

Her output sounds great, but BK is a good area, possibly the best, in Isaan for rubber trees. Different weather - wetter than most.

[stupidfarang]

With Vietnam, Cambodia planting even more trees and then all the other country's growing rubber who in their right mind would want to grow rubber trees?

[cobbler]

Is it a full moon today? Or have the wobbleyhead society just found us?

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[thaiguzzi]

4 hours ago, stupidfarang said:

With Vietnam, Cambodia planting even more trees and then all the other country's growing rubber who in their right mind would want to grow rubber trees?

You forgot all the African nations on the same latitude as SE Asia....

[philo]

8 hours ago, thaiguzzi said:

For the love of God! Another one!

Read the above. There is no average! Dec-Jan will have 3 times the output of July-Aug.

Her output sounds great, but BK is a good area, possibly the best, in Isaan for rubber trees. Different weather - wetter than most.

Thanks.

 

 Good to know that the mentioned output is both possible and high. Jolly good.

 

ph

 

P.S. I did read  the "above" -  National average " 290 kg/rai/year based on Thai Agriculture Ministry figures " - in post #3634 over. I guess I must have read the wrong "above". Will try to do better next time. Thanks again.

[thaiguzzi]

16 hours ago, philo said:

Thanks.

 

 Good to know that the mentioned output is both possible and high. Jolly good.

 

ph

 

P.S. I did read  the "above" -  National average " 290 kg/rai/year based on Thai Agriculture Ministry figures " - in post #3634 over. I guess I must have read the wrong "above". Will try to do better next time. Thanks again.

Don't forget, unless she is tapping a parcel herself, she will be on a 60/40 or 55/45 or 50/50 split, less annual expenses. So around half the money coming in is going in her pocket...

[grollies]

On 20/10/2017 at 10:58 AM, cobbler said:

 

B18.6/kg today.

 

Just spoke to tappers. They are saying a strike is being organised for after the Royal Cremation. Anyone else heard this?

 

Don't blame them.

[cobbler]

B18.6/kg today.
 
Just spoke to tappers. They are saying a strike is being organised for after the Royal Cremation. Anyone else heard this?
 
Don't blame them.

Im not surprised if itsvtrue. I highly doubt anything will change though. Blows me away how they can survive on about 5000 to 15,000 bart per month for 2 people. Excluding closed season.

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[grollies]

1 minute ago, cobbler said:

Im not surprised if itsvtrue. I highly doubt anything will change though. Blows me away how they can survive on about 5000 to 15,000 bart per month for 2 people. Excluding closed season.

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They can't. Our tappers do our trees and another similar plot up the road.

 

We're giving them 50/50, catfish and eggs. Shitty price but with the increase in the THB currency on exports, what do the govt expect? Like you say, can't see anything being done about it. Any organised gatherings will be cracked-down on.

 

At this price I make more profit selling eggs than rubber....seriously.

[cobbler]

They can't. Our tappers do our trees and another similar plot up the road.
 
We're giving them 50/50, catfish and eggs. Shitty price but with the increase in the THB currency on exports, what do the govt expect? Like you say, can't see anything being done about it. Any organised gatherings will be cracked-down on.
 
At this price I make more profit selling eggs than rubber....seriously.

Mate im with you there. We nake 300 bart a day picking 10 metre x 13 meter of tua fukeow / longbeans . Yet 50 rai of rubber when the total income from it is devided by 364 days in the year comes to around 1,200 per day. Been that way for the last 5 years. I was expecting about 1 year good and 2 years crap as thats how it rolls with farming anything.
We could pour a more expensive pui on it but if its anything like pigs. U just feep em a cheap food and get smaller pigs or u feed them expensive food and get big pigs. Meaning is the difference in the output is to cover the expensive pui.
My wifes aunty has tried all these tricks on hervv100 rai of yang over the years and weve learnt over the years . If we ask her something and she just looks down waving her head. Thats a no go.
So theoretically 130square meters of longbeans makevv30p bart per day so to make 1200 bart per day would only take 520 square meters. So if we had 2 rai of long beens wed be miles in front of 50 rai of rubber trees. After wages ect. Just need 364 day a year water suply.
Add that with the 7 asian nations opening up in 2 years ,thailand being at the crossroads of it all. Then the other countries growing 1000s of rai of rubber with cheaper wages than us in thai.
This is why weve come to our decission weve come to that for us,in our eyes,food is the future,for us anyway. The worlds got an exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
I was livestreaming landline abc tv show a few months back and they said on it. The next mining boom in australia will be the growing of food. The world has exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
Food for thought.
Cheers cobbler

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[cobbler]

Mate im with you there. We nake 300 bart a day picking 10 metre x 13 meter of tua fukeow / longbeans . Yet 50 rai of rubber when the total income from it is devided by 364 days in the year comes to around 1,200 per day. Been that way for the last 5 years. I was expecting about 1 year good and 2 years crap as thats how it rolls with farming anything.
We could pour a more expensive pui on it but if its anything like pigs. U just feep em a cheap food and get smaller pigs or u feed them expensive food and get big pigs. Meaning is the difference in the output is to cover the expensive pui.
My wifes aunty has tried all these tricks on hervv100 rai of yang over the years and weve learnt over the years . If we ask her something and she just looks down waving her head. Thats a no go.
So theoretically 130square meters of longbeans makevv300p bart per day so to make 1200 bart per day would only take 520 square meters. So if we had 2 rai of long beens wed be miles in front of 50 rai of rubber trees. After wages ect. Just need 364 day a year water suply.
Add that with the 7 asian nations opening up in 2 years ,thailand being at the crossroads of it all. Then the other countries growing 1000s of rai of rubber with cheaper wages than us in thai.
This is why weve come to our decission weve come to that for us,in our eyes,food is the future,for us anyway. The worlds got an exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
I was livestreaming landline abc tv show a few months back and they said on it. The next mining boom in australia will be the growing of food. The world has exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
Food for thought.
Cheers cobbler

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[cobbler]

Mate im with you there. We nake 300 bart a day picking 10 metre x 13 meter of tua fukeow / longbeans . Yet 50 rai of rubber when the total income from it is devided by 364 days in the year comes to around 1,200 per day. Been that way for the last 5 years. I was expecting about 1 year good and 2 years crap as thats how it rolls with farming anything.
We could pour a more expensive pui on it but if its anything like pigs. U just feep em a cheap food and get smaller pigs or u feed them expensive food and get big pigs. Meaning is the difference in the output is to cover the expensive pui.
My wifes aunty has tried all these tricks on her 100 rai of yang over the years and weve learnt over the years . If we ask her something and she just looks down waving her head. Thats a no go.
So theoretically 130square meters of longbeans make 300p bart per day so to make 1200 bart per day would only take 520 square meters to make . So if we had 2 rai of long beens wed be miles in front of 50 rai of rubber trees. After wages ect. Just need 364 day a year water suply.
Add that with the 7 asian nations opening up in 2 years ,thailand being at the crossroads of it all. Then the other countries growing 1000s of rai of rubber with cheaper wages than us in thai.
This is why weve come to our decission weve come to that for us,in our eyes,food is the future,for us anyway. The worlds got an exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
I was livestreaming landline abc tv show a few months back and they said on it. The next mining boom in australia will be the growing of food. The world has exploding population and its got to eat every single day.
Food for thought.
Cheers cobbler

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[grollies]

So has anyone any thoughts on why the rubber price is so crap?

 

Low oil price? Nope, price on par with Oct 2016.

 

Strength of THB? Nope, down against USD Oct 2016

 

Down on international market price? Nope, price +4.3% on the year.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rubber

 

Competition from other countries? Nope, see above intl price.

 

Overproduction? Nope, again, see above intl price.

 

Low demand? Nope, Thai rubber exports at record levels. Again, see above re intl price.

 

Manipulation by state players?..... possibly?

 

Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money. As usual it's not the producers.

 

Thoughts guys?

Edited October 24, 2017 by grollies

[cobbler]

So has anyone any thoughts on why the rubber price is so crap?
 
Low oil price? Nope, price on par with Oct 2016.
 
Strength of THB? Nope, down against USD Oct 2016
 
Down on international market price? Nope, price +4.3% on the year.
 
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/rubber
 
Competition from other countries? Nope, see above intl price.
 
Overproduction? Nope, again, see above intl price.
 
Low demand? Nope, Thai rubber exports at record levels. Again, see above re intl price.
 
Manipulation by state players?..... possibly?
 
Someone, somewhere is making a lot of money. As usual it's not the producers.
 
Thoughts guys?

Hi grollies,
Just my shitty opinion. Supply and demand. So much rubber was planted about 6 years ago in laos wen pricecwas 180bart per kg. Also other countries got into it too, ivory coast africa,vietnam did a lot more than before. Also other countries got into it also. A lot of the trees planted around issaan would be coming online also.
Your other point about the powers to be making a fair bit is probably correct also..
[emoji16]

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[grollies]

12 minutes ago, cobbler said:

Hi grollies,
Just my shitty opinion. Supply and demand. So much rubber was planted about 6 years ago in laos wen pricecwas 180bart per kg. Also other countries got into it too, ivory coast africa,vietnam did a lot more than before. Also other countries got into it also. A lot of the trees planted around issaan would be coming online also.
Your other point about the powers to be making a fair bit is probably correct also..


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If the international market price of rubber is up +4.3% on the year it makes no sense for the gate price at collecting yards to be down 40% on last years price in Thailand, matter how much is being produced elsewhere.