Politics Hindering Thai Flood Relief: Experts

[Lite Beer]

Politics hindering Thai flood relief: experts - Focus

by Didier Lauras

BANGKOK, October 30, 2011 (AFP) - Thailand's battle against its worst floods in decades has spilled into the political arena, underscoring the deep divisions that linger more than a year after deadly civil unrest rocked the kingdom.

Efforts to prepare the capital for looming floodwaters have been plagued by contradictory messages from Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government and local authorities, both seeking to score political points, observers said.

The sense of disunity during the slow-motion catastrophe has doused hopes the crisis might bring rival political factions together following years of instability since royalist generals overthrew Yingluck's brother in 2006.

"This is no longer just an issue of natural disaster. It has become a ferocious political game," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"This competition, even during the height of the crisis, unveils a reality in Thailand: this is a deeply fragmented society in which political ideologies have overshadowed public responsibility and the urgency for national survival."

The crisis has proved a major test for the country's new leader Yingluck, who came to power just two months ago helped by the popularity of her brother -- ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra -- among poor Thais in rural areas.

Now it is the very people who voted for Yingluck's Puea Thai party who are suffering the most during the monsoon crisis, which has killed more than 380 people so far and affected millions in the north and the east of the country.

Conflicting statements from political enemies have rattled anxious residents, leaving many struggling to make sense of which Bangkok districts are most at risk and how best to cope with the rising waters.

"It's very confusing to know exactly who has the facts, and who really knows what to do," said Aswin Kongsiri, a Thai businessman on the board of several companies and the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Open power struggles between Yingluck, a political novice, and Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra from the rival Democrat Party have done little to reassure the public.

Once it became clear that the mass of water slowly pushing its way out to sea would not avoid Bangkok, the traditional heartland of the Democrats, Yingluck and the Bangkok governor quickly crossed swords.

"Listen to me and only me. I will tell you when to evacuate," Sukhumbhand told the city in mid-October.

Yingluck quickly hit back. "I want the Bangkok governor to work to his best ability and I don't want to hear this is under Bangkok authority," she said, stressing that the government's flood relief centre was in charge.

The crisis has also highlighted the strained relationship between Yingluck and the military, which traditionally supports the Democrats and has a notoriously bad relationship with Thaksin and his "Red Shirt" supporters.

Yingluck refused calls from the opposition to declare a state of emergency that would have given greater powers to army chief Prayut Chan-o-Cha.

Pro-Thaksin media have even warned of a possible "water coup" by the army, which has a long record of intervening in politics and broke up mass street protests by the Reds in early 2010, leaving more than 90 people dead.

While the generals are unlikely to use the disaster to justify a coup, the military appears to be "looking to stop the flooding without cooperating with the Yingluck government", said Paul Chambers, director of research at the Southeast Asian Institute of Global Studies at Payap University in Chiang Mai.

"Clearly the anti-Thaksin military leadership is not sympathetic to a pro-Thaksin prime minister."

While experts say the Thai floods have been exacerbated by years of environmental mismanagement and poorly controlled urban development, questions have been raised over the government's response to the floods.

"I put a lot of blame on the civil servants actually," said Aswin, the businessman, pointing out that there are "at least five or six major government agencies" in charge of dealing with water issues.

Thailand's businesswoman-turned-premier has also come under fire, with critics accusing Yingluck of indecisiveness.

As the blame game continues, Thailand's political divide looks set to linger long after the floodwaters have gone.

"This game is nasty... it will be nastier when the water recedes," said Pavin in Singapore, anticipating efforts by the establishment forces arrayed against Yingluck and Thaksin to undermine her government in the coming months.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-10-30

[hellodolly]

For sure politics has hindered the relief efforts. The Governments refusal to call it a state of emergency has some what tied the hands of the army to do their utmost. Even with out her consent they have gone on to supply man power.

As for the battle between Prime Minister Yingluck and Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra. I can not see it as hurting the effort. It is just a attempt to gather attention.

Not saying the Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra is all that straight forward but he does seem to have the interests of the citizens well being more so than Yingluck.

I wonder if he would have asked for out side help.

And before any one tries to play that old song about all the out side help we are already getting I am not talking about donated help with out asking for it I am talking about asking for help.

[nurofiend]

tiresome, just tiresome

[animatic]

There was a concerted effort to split the electorate as much as possible. Divide and conqure stratagy. There was a 10 year effort to train and expand a group of hardcore zealots as a politipcal weapon. It is near impossible to dial back such a groups core beliefs, false or not, since they were also trained to resist being changed. There is a longstanding sense that revenge is nessecary to gain back lost face, simply regaining power is not enough. And the one unifying force in the nation has been obliquely and artificialy diminished in the minds of one segment of the populace. And a new faux-flag force legendized as countervailing entity. How can there possibly be any consesus in the country under these conditons, regardless of the severity of the emergency at hand? The reconstruction, and it's logistic and financial imperatives, will equaly be used as a divusive weapon and further foment divisions through hatred. It will be a long generation be for peace returns.

Edited October 30, 2011 by animatic

[whybother]

I don't think politics is hindering the flood relief. It's incompetence.

Police chief orders setting up of relief centers in flooded provinces/TAN_Network

Why is the the police chief ordering this, and why does HE NEED to order this?

[jayboy]

For sure politics has hindered the relief efforts. The Governments refusal to call it a state of emergency has some what tied the hands of the army to do their utmost. Even with out her consent they have gone on to supply man power.

Can you explain to me what powers the authorities don't already have (and that they now need) that would be available under a state of emergency.In addition how does the absence of a state of emergency tie the hands of the army? What is the army prevented from doing now that it would be able to do if a SOE was declared.

I have now asked these questions several times of those who have argued for the declaration of a SOE.The response has been a long silence.A cynic might think that (a) they have no idea what a SOE involves and why it might be necessary but ( believe it seems on the face of it a good way of attacking the government.

In the meantime in the real world away from cranky foreigners of a right wing disposition with too much time on their hands, the army and the civil authorities are co-operating quite well.

[Chris Lawrence]

Pavin sounds a bit like a wan_er.

Only scratching the surface is not a news story.

If this guy could investigate why is there not more information on how the departments had prepared for this and their views on what would happen if a disaster of this magnitude happened.

If you had someone in heading a department that did not believe such a disaster could happen, then they would be covering their backsides now. I don't believe the Queensland floods developed into a state of emergency, even though they knocked out Brisbane. What are the benefits of a state of emergency? Not political but the benefit to residents?

Based on Pavin miniscule delving into politics I just think there is a lot more research to be done that goes back maybe 10 years in and around Bangkok and the flood mitigation planning experts.

[Chris Lawrence]

'A state of emergency is a governmental declaration that may suspend some normal functions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, alert citizens to change their normal behaviours, or order government agencies to implement emergency preparedness plans. It can also be used as a rationale for suspending rights and freedoms, even if guaranteed under the constitution. Such declarations usually come during a time of natural or man made disaster, during periods of civil unrest, or following a declaration of war or situation of international or internal armed conflict. Justitium is its equivalent in Roman law.

In some countries, the state of emergency and its effects on human rights and freedoms and governmental procedure are regulated by the constitution and/or a law that limits the powers that may be invoked. Rights and freedoms may be suspended during an emergency, for instance, freedom of movement, but not non-derogable rights.[1] In many countries it is illegal to modify the emergency law or the constitution during the emergency' From Wikipedia

The last state of emergency dictated the following in Thailand, "The emergency decree allows the armed forces to detain suspects for an initial period of 30 days in informal places of detention without a court order or immediate access to legal counsel, family members or independent monitoring.

It also allows for the declaration of curfews in selected areas and bans on public gatherings of more than five people, prohibits news reports deemed to threaten public order and allows the government to use soldiers to quell unrest."

Something like that sounds a bit harsh?

[Chris Lawrence]

There was a concerted effort to split the electorate as much as possible. Divide and conqure stratagy. There was a 10 year effort to train and expand a group of hardcore zealots as a politipcal weapon. It is near impossible to dial back such a groups core beliefs, false or not, since they were also trained to resist being changed. There is a longstanding sense that revenge is nessecary to gain back lost face, simply regaining power is not enough. And the one unifying force in the nation has been obliquely and artificialy diminished in the minds of one segment of the populace. And a new faux-flag force legendized as countervailing entity. How can there possibly be any consesus in the country under these conditons, regardless of the severity of the emergency at hand? The reconstruction, and it's logistic and financial imperatives, will equaly be used as a divusive weapon and further foment divisions through hatred. It will be a long generation be for peace returns.

I think I have got some of these people living in my building?

[Gary A]

Why wouldn't there be conflicts? Upcountry people don't necessarily want to flood Bangkok but they are sick and tired of their homes being under water to protect Bangkok.

Bangkok people want business as usual and that is to close the flood gates and keep the flood water out of Bangkok at the expense of those outside of Bangkok.

Of course the politicians from different areas have different priorities. That's their jobs to protect their home areas.

[Buchholz]

Efforts to prepare the capital for looming floodwaters have been plagued by contradictory messages from Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government

The sense of disunity during the slow-motion catastrophe

Slow motion is an apt description and indicative of the country being "plagued by contradictory messages" during this catastrophe long before the flood waters came close to Bangkok.

The contradictions came exclusively from within Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government itself, well before it grew to involve local authorities in Bangkok.

.

Edited October 30, 2011 by Buchholz

[DocN]

I highly suggest you take a look at "that other newspaper" and the comment of a certain K. Voranai. Given that his research is correct, you might be in for a surprise, if you still believe that the Govenor did a good job.

[whybother]

Can you explain to me what powers the authorities don't already have (and that they now need) that would be available under a state of emergency.In addition how does the absence of a state of emergency tie the hands of the army? What is the army prevented from doing now that it would be able to do if a SOE was declared.

I have now asked these questions several times of those who have argued for the declaration of a SOE.The response has been a long silence.A cynic might think that (a) they have no idea what a SOE involves and why it might be necessary but ( believe it seems on the face of it a good way of attacking the government.

In the meantime in the real world away from cranky foreigners of a right wing disposition with too much time on their hands, the army and the civil authorities are co-operating quite well.

One thing that the SOE would help with is forced evacuations. (which I have mentioned to you before)

[Chang_paarp]

A state of emergancy allows a single entity to take control of disaster control without having to pander to thr varying departments. At the moment the differing departments still guard their turf and their ministercan ordain certain actions that suit him.

[jayboy]

I highly suggest you take a look at "that other newspaper" and the comment of a certain K. Voranai. Given that his resaerch is correct, you might be in for a surprise, if you still believe that the Govenor did a good job.

Exactly.The Governor (who I agree hasn't put in a poor performance) has played politics, ignored the interests of the country at large and eventually had to be given instructions to co-operate.The article you mention, by a very intelligent and fair minded journalist, explains why.However just as some partisan voices squeak nonsense about the need for an SOE, so Sukhumbhand is overpraised.The reason is broadly speaking the same - politics.

[jayboy]

A state of emergancy allows a single entity to take control of disaster control without having to pander to thr varying departments. At tje moment the differing departments still guard their turf and their ministercan ordain certain actions that suit him.

And which entity would that be.It couldn't be the army which has no expertise in disaster control.The government already has the necessary powers.

[jayboy]

One thing that the SOE would help with is forced evacuations. (which I have mentioned to you before)

Not necessary.The powers are already there.And in any case this is Thailand in 2011 not Russia in the 1930's.

[whybother]

One thing that the SOE would help with is forced evacuations. (which I have mentioned to you before)

Not necessary.The powers are already there.And in any case this is Thailand in 2011 not Russia in the 1930's.

There are no current powers to force evacuations. And in some areas it is necessary. When it isn't done at the right time, it means more work to evacuate people when they decide that they should have evacuated earlier.

[jayboy]

There are no current powers to force evacuations. And in some areas it is necessary. When it isn't done at the right time, it means more work to evacuate people when they decide that they should have evacuated earlier.

Who exactly do you think are the people who now need to be "forced" to evacuate?

George Orwell would have a field day with your comment that it would mean "more work" later on.

Frankly this is typical of the woolly thinking on the subject of an SOE (though some of course are simply army fetishists, not you I trust!)

[kutjebu]

Political game?????? The West knows all about it.

Edited October 30, 2011 by thaiphoon
Text resized for better reading.

[whybother]

There are no current powers to force evacuations. And in some areas it is necessary. When it isn't done at the right time, it means more work to evacuate people when they decide that they should have evacuated earlier.

Who exactly do you think are the people who now need to be "forced" to evacuate?

George Orwell would have a field day with your comment that it would mean "more work" later on.

Frankly this is typical of the woolly thinking on the subject of an SOE (though some of course are simply army fetishists, not you I trust!)

There are people who should have been forced to evacuate. Ones that end up having to walk through chest high water to get out.

Do the current laws allow the government to evacuate people by force?

I don't necessarily think that an SOE is required, and given the flip-flopping of announcements, I don't think the government would know when they should force evacuations whether they had the power to or not.

[sirchai]

tiresome, just tiresome

"Pro-Thaksin media have even warned of a possible "water coup" by the army, which has a long record of intervening in politics and broke up mass street protests by the Reds in early 2010, leaving more than 90 people dead."

They should really wait until Songkran.....

[hammered]

The businessman who mentions he blames bureaucrats knows what is going on. The bureaucrats will make sure the politicians take the blame so nothing changes and no government ever has total control over the civil service but that is especially true of an incoming government that has not even had chance to make one round of complete rotations yet. The elected polticians actually need more power and the bureaucrats less for Thailand to develop

[AleG]

Once it became clear that the mass of water slowly pushing its way out to sea would not avoid Bangkok, the traditional heartland of the Democrats, Yingluck and the Bangkok governor quickly crossed swords.

"Listen to me and only me. I will tell you when to evacuate," Sukhumbhand told the city in mid-October.

Yingluck quickly hit back. "I want the Bangkok governor to work to his best ability and I don't want to hear this is under Bangkok authority," she said, stressing that the government's flood relief centre was in charge.

It would had been fair to put the governor's quote in the context of the Science Minister, the previous day if I remember correctly, rushing out of a FROC meeting and warning people to evacuate (can't remember the area) immediately because a levy had broken and there would be 1 meter of water flooding the area... which turned out not to be the case but already had sent people into panic mode.

[Lifer]

For sure politics has hindered the relief efforts. The Governments refusal to call it a state of emergency has some what tied the hands of the army to do their utmost. Even with out her consent they have gone on to supply man power.

Can you explain to me what powers the authorities don't already have (and that they now need) that would be available under a state of emergency.In addition how does the absence of a state of emergency tie the hands of the army? What is the army prevented from doing now that it would be able to do if a SOE was declared.

I have now asked these questions several times of those who have argued for the declaration of a SOE.The response has been a long silence.A cynic might think that (a) they have no idea what a SOE involves and why it might be necessary but ( believe it seems on the face of it a good way of attacking the government.

In the meantime in the real world away from cranky foreigners of a right wing disposition with too much time on their hands, the army and the civil authorities are co-operating quite well.

DREAMER.

[Lifer]

If you don't think that the situation after the flooding is going to get wore, your in for real ride. It's just the start of another 2011 all over again.

[hammered]

If you don't think that the situation after the flooding is going to get wore, your in for real ride. It's just the start of another 2011 all over again.

So you are suggesting that while hundreds of thousands/millions of people across the North, Isaan, Central Region and Bangkok suburbs are needing critical help from government that instead there will be a massive uprising for some reason? Now is a time to let government get on with the reconstruction and aftermath stuff whether you like government or not and not a time for political showmanship. If the government fail the aftermath test in the minds of those affected (and most are in areas that voted heavily for this government) they will no doubt be kicked out at the next election.

And lets remember if yo utake a look at where the flood damage is those are areas where this government was heavily backed at the last election so at least the people in those areas are relying on a government they chose and presumably one they trust to sort out the aftermath of Thailand's worst natural disaster since the Tsuanmi.

[poochai]

Pavin sounds a bit like a wan_er.

Only scratching the surface is not a news story.

If this guy could investigate why is there not more information on how the departments had prepared for this and their views on what would happen if a disaster of this magnitude happened.

If you had someone in heading a department that did not believe such a disaster could happen, then they would be covering their backsides now. I don't believe the Queensland floods developed into a state of emergency, even though they knocked out Brisbane. What are the benefits of a state of emergency? Not political but the benefit to residents?

Based on Pavin miniscule delving into politics I just think there is a lot more research to be done that goes back maybe 10 years in and around Bangkok and the flood mitigation planning experts.

According to what he told Channel News Asia, he was a diplomat working for the Thai foreign service. He quit that job to become a researcher in Thai politics in Singapore.

He is very well sought after in Singapore and many Singaporeans look up to him where Thai politics are concerned.

Singapore's only major newspaper, The Straits Times, features his articles regularly.

Pavin also appears frequently on Channel News Asia to give his take on Thai politics.

[plumeria]

tiresome, just tiresome

Must agree with you 100% but let's learn something from this mess.

Didier is spin doctoring, trying to claim the PM and BKK GOV have equally valid views and trying to make this battle of political ideology.

It's a battle between competent and incompetent.

It's a battle between experienced and inexperienced.

It's a battle between sensical and useful information vs nonsense and contradictory and totally false information.

Next Didier will write an article blaming all the problems on gender bias against the PM.

Be aware of the paid spin doctoring, even when guised as a so-called "news" report with supposedly "impartial" experts making comments.

A Thai in Singapore is still a Thai and being a short flight away does not create impartiality and objectiveness.

What I'd would like to see is brainstorming and debate about ideas on how to avoid this ever happening again.

This is just the first wave of nature's response to the Thai government (all administrations in the past half century) allowing the environment to be raped and pillaged.

After a powerful left, often comes powerful right that delivers the KO.

Considering this is the home of Thai martial arts, you would expect them to have more sense and realize the fight is NOT over and this is only Round One.

Soooooooooo much more talking and thinking and planning and preparation needs to be done for what is coming next.

Not just knee-jerk, day-by-day reaction to today's water levels in this or that or those places.

That's what is so tiresome.

But we can't get tired because so much of the country is under water or a mess etc, etc, etc.

[plumeria]

If you don't think that the situation after the flooding is going to get wore, your in for real ride. It's just the start of another 2011 all over again.

So you are suggesting that while hundreds of thousands/millions of people across the North, Isaan, Central Region and Bangkok suburbs are needing critical help from government that instead there will be a massive uprising for some reason? Now is a time to let government get on with the reconstruction and aftermath stuff whether you like government or not and not a time for political showmanship. If the government fail the aftermath test in the minds of those affected (and most are in areas that voted heavily for this government) they will no doubt be kicked out at the next election.

And lets remember if yo utake a look at where the flood damage is those are areas where this government was heavily backed at the last election so at least the people in those areas are relying on a government they chose and presumably one they trust to sort out the aftermath of Thailand's worst natural disaster since the Tsuanmi.

Trust the billionaires and millionaires to selflessly serve the poor farmer -- and Thailand remains mostly farmers.

In one day wearing clothes worth more than an independent farmer earns in a couple years really shows compassion and concern for the common man. NOT.

If you really understood the situation here you would know that more people die from drunk driving during Songkran each year than died from the tsunami -- even THAT year.

Just like drunk driving can be avoided, water can be managed.

The Dutch have proved there is no point in arguing that.

Even damage from a tsunami can be minimized with early warnings and good communications and cooperation and smart construction.

The government did this to their supporters and they will not suddenly become humanitarians post-flood.

It will simply be time to make the big bucks/big baht from the mess that was orchestrated -- "reconstruction".

Big projects going to cronies and big backhanders going to the politicians they put in office.

The "reconstruction" projects are probably why the PM created this situation.

As soon as the toilets work, Thailand needs to FLUSH all these guys out of office and get a fresh crowd with fresh views and fresh ideas.

Nothing is going to improve if the same old people keep getting elected.

A new face but the same old attitudes and ideas isn't going to help.

And doing this to the poor and middle class guarantees they won't have the time or energy or resources to "rise up".

It is brilliant neutralization of millions of people. It's evil but it's brilliant. And because it's as big as a mountain, not many people can see it.

They are too busy avoiding floods, trying to stay afloat, worrying about their families, despairing about the future, wondering if anyone is breaking into their home while they are upcountry, shoveling mud out of their neighborhoods, trying to get rid of the weird diseases they have picked up, trying to heal from injuries, wondering how their flooded factory is going to pay them.

No way anybody is going to "rise up". They can barely stand up.

But Thais are adaptable and resilient. Soon they WILL have the energy to start asking the hard questions and seeking long-term solutions.

Let's hope they can see beyond the smoke and mirrors and chart a new path for Thailand with a long-term vision based on sustainable ideas and policies.