Baht unlikely to slide below 35/$

[chiang mai]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

[alanrchase]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

Ever heard of inflation?

[chiang mai]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

Ever heard of inflation?

My post in response to the prior poster who was not aware GBP/THB was ever that low before the crash!

[alanrchase]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

Ever heard of inflation?

My post in response to the prior poster who was not aware GBP/THB was ever that low before the crash!

Point taken. My inflation statement was only about the 30 baht buying more back then part of your post.

[fiddlehead]

So much advice here on the future of the dollar/baht.
Which to believe?
They are all guesses in my opinion.
So, let's see who is right?
How about a little contest?
Predict the Dollar/Baht.

I'll say August 1st, 2015, the dollar will buy 34.65 baht

August 15, 2015: 35.25

Sept 1, 2015: 35.33

Sept 15, 2015: 35.50

and Dec 31, 2015: 36.80

Let's make it the forex price, not the bank's exchange rate. (best rates are in the little kiosks anyway)

[Naam]

Let's make it the forex price...

who or what is a "forex price"?

[Konaboy1]

So much advice here on the future of the dollar/baht.

Which to believe?

They are all guesses in my opinion.

So, let's see who is right?

How about a little contest?

Predict the Dollar/Baht.

I'll say August 1st, 2015, the dollar will buy 34.65 baht

August 15, 2015: 35.25

Sept 1, 2015: 35.33

Sept 15, 2015: 35.50

and Dec 31, 2015: 36.80

Let's make it the forex price, not the bank's exchange rate. (best rates are in the little kiosks anyway)

I'll say.... Hey!

[fang37]

Thank you, Nostradamus. Your quality predictions are appreciated.

Wouldn't it be nice to have such talent.

I would be a very rich man.

[fiddlehead]

Yeah I didn't think anyone would join in.
Afraid of possibly showing yourself to be.............what?

All these experts on thaivisa. LOL!

Forex price: Price on the forex exchange on the day. (not the BKK bank price, or K-bank or similar)

Let's say 8 AM Bangok time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

[marcusd]

This makes me laugh "....(name any financial market)...... is expected to .....(fill in the blank).... because of......(fill in the blank)".

The future direction of any financial market is completely unknowable. Everything someone can list as a possible reason why something "should" happen, is already known by the market and is already "priced in" resulting in the current price. There are billions of $, Baht whatever being traded by people whose business it is to trade currency markets. These are serious people. If they thought for one second that the current price was in some way "wrong" or that others had failed to consider a certain key piece of information or data, they would place their bets and rake in a fortune when they were proved right.

The current price is there as a result of all the people who have already placed their bets on the direction based on all known data / information / forecasts.

The only thing that will move markets one way or the other is if new news or data becomes available which differs significantly from what was expected. This data / information is by it's very definition "unknown", hence the future direction is also unknown.

But these economists will know: if you forecast the direction as "up" or "down", which ever they choose there is about a 50-50 chance of being correct. Then they can heap praise on their own shoulders for being so clever!!

Flip a coin, you have about as much chance of being right.

And there is the big problem and reason the Capitalist system in the 21st century is now deeply flawed.

It is all one betting shop and countries economies are "played" with by selfish and low life gamblers. Exchange rates in the old days of more true economies were almost exclusively effected, as they very much should be, by a country's balance of payments for goods and services in and out, not by low life a'hole speculators trying to make a quick free buck on the backs of the poor folk in the economies they falsely effect and often ruin. This world is currently totally crazy and grossly unfair to the the 99% of folk who are ordinary decent people simply trying to earn an honest living and have a happy and comfortable rewarding life but all of that is being ruined by the fat cat selfish pond life whom Governments allow to get away with it !!!!!!!!!!

Silly fraudulent manipulations by very corrupt and evil Governments like Washington and much of Europe too, who are a major part and main cause in fact of the problem. Falsely making the what should be a very weak US dollar stronger by fraud and deceit, and gold weaker (which is very strange as physical gold is highly in demand that exceeds supply!!), manipulating oil prices to help demonise Russia in punishment for them being independent and refusing to bow down to the hegemonic US domination as most World wide vassal states are having to do these days.

NOW before anyone starts the stupid jumping on me as usual on this point, I will say now that I am NOT being anti American as I have many US based friends and generally love most US folk and the beautiful country, though some are sadly it seems a bit apathetic and lacking in real knowledge of the truth. However I am really very much currently very anti the corrupt and simply evil corporate run Washington and indeed anti UK Government too for similar reasons as they are very much a US vassal nation now. There lies the problem that affects us all and time we all did something to rid ourselves of this blight on society IMHO.

Almost ALL of us here are ordinary decent folk and we are being totally stitched up by corrupt Western Governments and fat cat corporations that are controlling us and still too many of us seem unable to see the truth in that. This we must stop and get back to normality if it is at all possible. Unfortunately we are still being brainwashed and mislead by the Washington controlled Western media.

All just my honest two pence worth and I am not up to any debate on it as I am happy that it is all the truth and many or even most open minded ordinary decent folk can now see that too and agree !! So silly flamers who are unable to hold a serious sensible debate will as usual be ignored as they always should be.

Are you saying a SOCIALIST system will work? Think again. People are GREEDY no matter what Utopia you want to have

[KOZMO]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

The question is why would an idiot by Thai gold which is not .9999 Gold per ounce elseware????

[marcusd]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

Are there only ENGLISH PEOPLE and USA people in Thailand?

Who CARES? You are minor in Thailand EXPORTS business compared to other nations.

You are not the driving force of the Thailand economy. Japan and China seem to be. nations that were are dropping their interest.

Japan, Europe, China.... these are the people who invest most here with figures from this site https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment suggesting Japan at 60%.

Now with their low currency against the baht, do they care about US dollar values or GBP?

I think not and they are moving a lot of manufacturing = INVESTMENT away fro Thailand over the next few years. Do they care here? i think not until its too late. Retirees bringing in money boosts foreign reserves and helps the LOCAL economies.

I saw a google thing some time back where it was estimated at near to 1 million but I cannot substantiate that anywhere so help is appreciated.

But I would suspect these people leaving as thir currencies get less baht will also hurt Thailand. So forget the US$ and GBP as these will pale into insignificance with the others in this land suffering now

[chiang mai]

GBP/THB was between 37 and 42 for the seven years prior to the crash, purely as a a function of the Dollar peg. But to put things in perspective, 30 baht back then would buy you loads more of everything compared to today.

Are there only ENGLISH PEOPLE and USA people in Thailand?

Who CARES? You are minor in Thailand EXPORTS business compared to other nations.

You are not the driving force of the Thailand economy. Japan and China seem to be. nations that were are dropping their interest.

Japan, Europe, China.... these are the people who invest most here with figures from this site https://en.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/thailand/foreign-investment suggesting Japan at 60%.

Now with their low currency against the baht, do they care about US dollar values or GBP?

I think not and they are moving a lot of manufacturing = INVESTMENT away fro Thailand over the next few years. Do they care here? i think not until its too late. Retirees bringing in money boosts foreign reserves and helps the LOCAL economies.

I saw a google thing some time back where it was estimated at near to 1 million but I cannot substantiate that anywhere so help is appreciated.

But I would suspect these people leaving as thir currencies get less baht will also hurt Thailand. So forget the US$ and GBP as these will pale into insignificance with the others in this land suffering now

Shame you didn't read the preceding posts but nice rant anyway!

My post about the GBP/THB range was to help the previous poster understand that it was as low as 37, prior to the crash, that's all!!!!!

[IMA_FARANG]

A little off the topic..... but you need to remember exchange rates vary and historically the have been much lower or higher (depending on many variables) than now.

About 1980 I was on a plane, flying to the U.K., and I remember reading a newspaper article discussing the U.S. Dollar/GBP rate.

The rate then was $1 10 Dollar to one pound.....and the article was talking about the possibility of parity ( 1 Dollar for 1 Pound soon).

Obviously that never happened....... but I remember the article.

I also remember the days, when I first arrived in Thailand, of the 25 Baht for one Dollar exchange rate.

[sandyf]

A little off the topic..... but you need to remember exchange rates vary and historically the have been much lower or higher (depending on many variables) than now.

About 1980 I was on a plane, flying to the U.K., and I remember reading a newspaper article discussing the U.S. Dollar/GBP rate.

The rate then was $1 10 Dollar to one pound.....and the article was talking about the possibility of parity ( 1 Dollar for 1 Pound soon).

Obviously that never happened....... but I remember the article.

I also remember the days, when I first arrived in Thailand, of the 25 Baht for one Dollar exchange rate.

There was parity at one time. One Penny UK = One Penny US.

[rayw]

This makes me laugh "....(name any financial market)...... is expected to .....(fill in the blank).... because of......(fill in the blank)".

The future direction of any financial market is completely unknowable. Everything someone can list as a possible reason why something "should" happen, is already known by the market and is already "priced in" resulting in the current price. There are billions of $, Baht whatever being traded by people whose business it is to trade currency markets. These are serious people. If they thought for one second that the current price was in some way "wrong" or that others had failed to consider a certain key piece of information or data, they would place their bets and rake in a fortune when they were proved right.

The current price is there as a result of all the people who have already placed their bets on the direction based on all known data / information / forecasts.

The only thing that will move markets one way or the other is if new news or data becomes available which differs significantly from what was expected. This data / information is by it's very definition "unknown", hence the future direction is also unknown.

But these economists will know: if you forecast the direction as "up" or "down", which ever they choose there is about a 50-50 chance of being correct. Then they can heap praise on their own shoulders for being so clever!!

Flip a coin, you have about as much chance of being right.

And there is the big problem and reason the Capitalist system in the 21st century is now deeply flawed.

It is all one betting shop and countries economies are "played" with by selfish and low life gamblers. Exchange rates in the old days of more true economies were almost exclusively effected, as they very much should be, by a country's balance of payments for goods and services in and out, not by low life a'hole speculators trying to make a quick free buck on the backs of the poor folk in the economies they falsely effect and often ruin. This world is currently totally crazy and grossly unfair to the the 99% of folk who are ordinary decent people simply trying to earn an honest living and have a happy and comfortable rewarding life but all of that is being ruined by the fat cat selfish pond life whom Governments allow to get away with it !!!!!!!!!!

Silly fraudulent manipulations by very corrupt and evil Governments like Washington and much of Europe too, who are a major part and main cause in fact of the problem. Falsely making the what should be a very weak US dollar stronger by fraud and deceit, and gold weaker (which is very strange as physical gold is highly in demand that exceeds supply!!), manipulating oil prices to help demonise Russia in punishment for them being independent and refusing to bow down to the hegemonic US domination as most World wide vassal states are having to do these days.

NOW before anyone starts the stupid jumping on me as usual on this point, I will say now that I am NOT being anti American as I have many US based friends and generally love most US folk and the beautiful country, though some are sadly it seems a bit apathetic and lacking in real knowledge of the truth. However I am really very much currently very anti the corrupt and simply evil corporate run Washington and indeed anti UK Government too for similar reasons as they are very much a US vassal nation now. There lies the problem that affects us all and time we all did something to rid ourselves of this blight on society IMHO.

Almost ALL of us here are ordinary decent folk and we are being totally stitched up by corrupt Western Governments and fat cat corporations that are controlling us and still too many of us seem unable to see the truth in that. This we must stop and get back to normality if it is at all possible. Unfortunately we are still being brainwashed and mislead by the Washington controlled Western media.

All just my honest two pence worth and I am not up to any debate on it as I am happy that it is all the truth and many or even most open minded ordinary decent folk can now see that too and agree !! So silly flamers who are unable to hold a serious sensible debate will as usual be ignored as they always should be.

Are you saying a SOCIALIST system will work? Think again. People are GREEDY no matter what Utopia you want to have

Actually I am saying that surprisingly I believe a Socialist system would actually work much better than the stupidity and flawed 21st Century Capitalist system which is absolutely for sure currently failing all of us but the 1%. I am however not in favour of Socialism either, but I am in favour of the many good people friendly aspects of BOTH Socialism AND Capitalism run and properly controlled as it used to be, under a centre based more honourable Government of the people and for the people.

Thanks for your input and indeed I agree and of course we all know that people are Greedy, but such greed only benefits usually the odd 1 or 2 percent of society who are powerful enough already to be able to succeed in their greed to the enormous cost to the rest of us. Utopia is by its very definition something we should all of course want to aim for although likely never achievable, but at the very least we should be heading in that correct and desirable direction surely rather than letting the 1% drive us headlong into the social abyss. It is why we need Governments accountable ONLY to the people and centre based of course and fairly work to ensure levels of greed are controlled as to how much it can be exploited. So yes we MUST have fair honourable Government controls wit either Socialism or Capitalism as without control it is like a company heading for failure as it does not have a good management board of directors.

Nothing wrong with ideals BTW as long as they are held alongside realism too. Ideals at least give us the direction in which we as a society should IDEALLY be heading as any steps in that direction should be good for the vast majority of us and if not then hardly ideal hmm !!

[fang37]

I was a capitalist through & through. I do not need a lot of $$$.

Now, my views have changed - pure socialism is quite acceptable.

[zierf1]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

[chiang mai]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

[Naam]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

your statement proves that you have a Ph.D. in economics

or perhaps not...

[Naam]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

for the record:

-USD 1 buys MYR (Malaysian Ringgit) 3.81

-USD 1 buys THB (Thai Baht) 34.80

and now let's do that percentage calculation again. is the difference about 10% or about 948%?

[i claudius]

Socialism never works to those who say it does ,the reason is no one is ever equal, there are always the socialists at the top with lots of money and the poor socialists at the bottom , wow,that sounds just like capitalism doesn't it,?

[OneZero]

"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries." Winston Churchill

[Fullstop]

You slide down not up.

Rubbish.

Give me an example of something that slides up

Amplifier controls.

Want another one?

[Fullstop]

OK...one more. A skier using the force of gravity to slide down a hill and then using the force of momentum to slide up the next one.

More? ... I can think of dozens off the top of my head.

[timendres]

This makes me laugh "....(name any financial market)...... is expected to .....(fill in the blank).... because of......(fill in the blank)".

The future direction of any financial market is completely unknowable. Everything someone can list as a possible reason why something "should" happen, is already known by the market and is already "priced in" resulting in the current price. There are billions of $, Baht whatever being traded by people whose business it is to trade currency markets. These are serious people. If they thought for one second that the current price was in some way "wrong" or that others had failed to consider a certain key piece of information or data, they would place their bets and rake in a fortune when they were proved right.

The current price is there as a result of all the people who have already placed their bets on the direction based on all known data / information / forecasts.

The only thing that will move markets one way or the other is if new news or data becomes available which differs significantly from what was expected. This data / information is by it's very definition "unknown", hence the future direction is also unknown.

But these economists will know: if you forecast the direction as "up" or "down", which ever they choose there is about a 50-50 chance of being correct. Then they can heap praise on their own shoulders for being so clever!!

Flip a coin, you have about as much chance of being right.

And there is the big problem and reason the Capitalist system in the 21st century is now deeply flawed.

It is all one betting shop and countries economies are "played" with by selfish and low life gamblers. Exchange rates in the old days of more true economies were almost exclusively effected, as they very much should be, by a country's balance of payments for goods and services in and out, not by low life a'hole speculators trying to make a quick free buck on the backs of the poor folk in the economies they falsely effect and often ruin. This world is currently totally crazy and grossly unfair to the the 99% of folk who are ordinary decent people simply trying to earn an honest living and have a happy and comfortable rewarding life but all of that is being ruined by the fat cat selfish pond life whom Governments allow to get away with it !!!!!!!!!!

Silly fraudulent manipulations by very corrupt and evil Governments like Washington and much of Europe too, who are a major part and main cause in fact of the problem. Falsely making the what should be a very weak US dollar stronger by fraud and deceit, and gold weaker (which is very strange as physical gold is highly in demand that exceeds supply!!), manipulating oil prices to help demonise Russia in punishment for them being independent and refusing to bow down to the hegemonic US domination as most World wide vassal states are having to do these days.

NOW before anyone starts the stupid jumping on me as usual on this point, I will say now that I am NOT being anti American as I have many US based friends and generally love most US folk and the beautiful country, though some are sadly it seems a bit apathetic and lacking in real knowledge of the truth. However I am really very much currently very anti the corrupt and simply evil corporate run Washington and indeed anti UK Government too for similar reasons as they are very much a US vassal nation now. There lies the problem that affects us all and time we all did something to rid ourselves of this blight on society IMHO.

Almost ALL of us here are ordinary decent folk and we are being totally stitched up by corrupt Western Governments and fat cat corporations that are controlling us and still too many of us seem unable to see the truth in that. This we must stop and get back to normality if it is at all possible. Unfortunately we are still being brainwashed and mislead by the Washington controlled Western media.

All just my honest two pence worth and I am not up to any debate on it as I am happy that it is all the truth and many or even most open minded ordinary decent folk can now see that too and agree !! So silly flamers who are unable to hold a serious sensible debate will as usual be ignored as they always should be.

Ah, yes, here we go again with the "All traders are evil" and the "99%" routine.

Please, go ahead and live in your world without markets and traders. See how soon your gasoline station goes dry, your electricity shuts off, and your food disappears. The average individual has no clue how deeply the modern markets are entwined in their lives.

Yes, it is true that there are many "gamblers" in modern markets. But if you think anyone can manipulate currency markets, you do not comprehend the incredible depth of these markets. Individual traders there are less than gnats floating on the waves of an ocean. Even governments, with their vast resources and influence, can make only minor, short-lived movements in these markets.

Of course, everyone loves to vilify the fat cats, with posts to their Facebook pages using their iPhone over fiber based internet while sipping their latte at Starbucks. Grow up. We are perfectly happy to be living in an age providing us with the highest standard of living in history, where even the most modest of folks are living the life of a king compared to only 150 years ago. Reaching ages of 70 and 80 years, driving cars, flying to other countries, eating foods imported from the other side of the world, and being entertained in ways that were unimaginable only 70 years ago. But God Forbid the people who dream the dreams and make the sacrifices to bring us this modern age should ever be rewarded for their efforts. It is a simple trait of a world with billions of consumers that some will end up with billions of dollars. Get over it.

That is not to say that there are not selfish, greedy people who take advantage. Of course there are, and there always will be. Just like the czars of the utopian "United Socialist States of Russia" were driving fancy cars and living in lake front villas, while the average sap (each according to his ability, each according to his need) was scrambling to feed his family. Don't transfer the problem of flawed human nature onto the system you have implemented. Adjust the system to best compensate for human nature, which is what a proper free society does.

Capitalism is the natural result of a free society. Try to eliminate capitalism, and by definition you are removing freedom.

The capitalist system is not deeply flawed, the banking system, with its debt based monetary model, is deeply flawed. Debt based money requires geometric growth to maintain the model, which at the beginning is beneficial but in the end fatal. While our own concepts of production and reproduction may accommodate this model, the very real limits of physical resources will collide head on with this model at some point in the not too distant future.

But if you think the capitalist system is deeply flawed, then maybe you would like to stand in the bread lines of Russia circa 1990, or maybe you would like to live in the agrarian utopia of 1970s Cambodia, or maybe you should move to the heavenly Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Certainly, capitalism has its limitations and issues, and as such does require some oversight by any society that embraces it. But, please, show me the alternative that delivers the same standard of living and progress with fewer issues.

You are absolutely correct about one thing: Any government is your mortal enemy. History has proven this time and again. The only good government is one that is seriously limited in power, which is what the original US constitution attempted to do. Unfortunately, US citizens have forgotten this important point, and have allowed their Federal government to grow beyond its constitutional mandate, with commensurate costs and loss of freedoms.

[timendres]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

for the record:

-USD 1 buys MYR (Malaysian Ringgit) 3.81

-USD 1 buys THB (Thai Baht) 34.80

and now let's do that percentage calculation again. is the difference about 10% or about 948%?

And 1 MYR = 9.135 THB.

If I use 1 USD to buy 3.81 MYR, then use those MYR to buy THB, I end up with 34.80 THB.

Oh, gee, same number. 0% difference.

All currency exchanges rates are relative. If there was ever a difference in exchange rates, arbitrageurs would remove it in milliseconds.

You can only compare export advantages based on real products purchased in the importers currency. If I can but a shirt in Thailand for $1, but it costs $1.25 in Malaysia, then Thailand has an advantage. The Thai baht exchange rate only comes into play when I compute the dollars required to purchase the baht. MYR can fall in exchange relative to the dollar, but if all things remain equal, the cost of that shirt is going to go up in MYR, leaving me with the same USD price.

[Berkshire]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

Do you have any idea how nonsensical your statement is?

[Naam]

How can they export more than Malaysia? That country has a much better exchange rate than Thailand now by about 10%.

Do you have any idea how nonsensical your statement is?

we should not judge too hard. he is in good company. hardly a day passes without at least one similar eggsburt comment in the economic section of Thaivisa; sometimes with added "advice" which is worse.

[spidermike007]

I always believed that the gold price was set by the world market. Interesting it has gone down 3.2% in Thailand, and 4.5% everywhere else. Would this not be called "price-fixing"? Why would you buy gold here, if it is above the market in the rest of the world?

gold in Thailand is sold at exactly the world market price (see below) with the advantage that bid/ask (buy/sell) difference is lower in Thailand.

some people arrive at wrong assumptions, respectively calculations because they compare apples with oranges by not taking the different currencies in which gold is quoted into consideration.

example:

-the selling price of 1 Baht weight is today THB 18,200

-world market price of gold per Troy ounce USD 1,099.50

-one Troy ounce of gold is the equivalent of ~2.0438 Baht weights

-the mid exchange rate US-Dollar/Thai Baht today is 34.89

18200 : 34.89 = $521.64 x 2.0438 = $1,066.12 x 1.0363 (Thai gold purity only 96.5%) = $1,105 minus goldshop margin = $1,099.50 = difference zero!

this lesson is free of charge although i have wasted at least 5 minutes of my precious time.

Maybe we can petition the education ministry to hire you as a math tutor for the school program here. I would love to see the average 6th grader tackle a math problem like this one. Nice work.