Is Thailand in trouble?

[Anthony5]

Let's hope!

Why would you hope for Thailand to be in trouble?

I would have thought that's fairly obvious, weaker the baht stronger the pound.

What a selfish attitude.

In the world as we know it today, you can't survive if you aren't selfish.

[Naam]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

my experience: no problem to withdraw 4.5 million (when i bought a 43 year old car two years ago) although i had to wait an hour or so till more cash was supplied to the branch.

Branch i use advises to order in advance to have the money ready.

to each his own... branch procedures

[i claudius]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

I agree ,when i was over in the UK i rang the bank and said i wanted to get 5 k in 50 pound notes , they did say it will take a day but if you want 20s you can get them now .

[Jools]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

[i claudius]

No Thailand is not in trouble. Economy is a bit down because the WORLD economy is down.

If you're talking about currencies / devaluations in SEA , have a read ....it seams Malaysia & Vietnam are worse off :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/mal-asia-politcal-currency-crises-converge-stocks-head-bear-market

So Because Malasia and Vietnam are worse off thats ok , ?

bit like saying my cancer is not as bad as your cancer

[Utley]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

[jobwolf]

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

In trouble for what?

You are joking I hope. Where do you live.??

[bkkcanuck8]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

If they're going down hill, the slope has been greased (Greeced?) by the great economic planning of the big time players.

Strange but I see the Euro has increased about 8% in value this week alone.

What I have seen is that they simply suspended trading, instead of buying, to prevent collapse but in the end it will be a losing battle.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-seller-chanos-china-worse-160745836.html#

Lingering concerns about China have helped drive stock selling, but investors may still underestimate how much the world's second-largest economy has slowed, short seller Jim Chanos said Friday.

"It's worse than you think. Whatever you might think, it's worse," he said

China had a massive bubble this year but after the "crash" or "correction" depending on your point of view - it is still FLAT over the last year. The problem is that many people in China entered the market late and stand to lose but still view it as a government problem and not a personal responsibility problem which is why the Chinese government is so worried about allowing it to correct normally... because they lose politically. The world economy has all been resting on the Chinese economy lately and so when it goes into recession (i.e. not growing as rapidly as before but still positive GDP growth) there really is no where in the world that is in good shape to switch to. In short, it is a world problem that has been building since 2008 -- and now we are all going to have to pay for poor government policies.

[gandalf12]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

That is not necessarily true. Recently I withdrew Bht 1,500,000 and the transaction was completed in minutes. Bangkok Bank by the way

[maewang99]

it might not just be "China" and "Fed rates" blah blah blah. how about multi-generational money in nominee name held for decades? FATCA and Know Your Customer at some point work in reverse so to say..... for reciprocity, that's part of how we get sovereign countries to agree to this.... info begins to flow ***to*** Thailand, not just 1099 data **from** Thailand... those really big long term low cost basis holdings lose their nominee shine (think Thai Revenue and Thai SEC for example, not just US IRS) and this group of investors is not your everyday Thai retail guy or gal. we never know what is really going on until hindsight... but we know Thailand has tried to delay agreeing to the higher levels of FATCA compliance.... it may change. since this is potentially about big holdings.... if there is anything real to this it could be part of what is going on. it really could, could it not? the USA has always welcomed investment, and has for decades and all anyone ever needed was a local mailing address for a few weeks or months, visa having nothing to do with it. it was always very easy to open a bank account or stock account in the USA and you automatically get any "foreign" holdings aggregated with everyone else's holdings and in a nominee name only, with the beneficial security holder's identification only known to the originating broker. and that's EXACTLY why and how FATCA gets accepted by places like Thailand. it is slower going in "reverse" compliance flow, because of how the FATCA convention are designed... but it is a ticking timebomb for some folks who are anything but as "American as apple pie" if you know what I mean. amoung the good things with this, the happy thoughts, are that genuine money generating investments are what they are but the speculative stuff is what it is also, and I don't have any sorrow at all for holders of that stuff no matter what the underlying holding is.... and there are still many opportunities in very good return generating Thai investments even if the baht goes back to 50 for one US dollar.

Edited August 23, 2015 by maewang99

[perdido]

...what's a cousin got to do with the price of mince - maybe you mean 'because'....

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

In trouble for what?

Economy wise, DOH

Explain to me why the economy is in trouble ...I have feeling your going say something like "cuz" lol

[aronp1]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

[phuketandsee]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

Then you really will see how much trouble this country is in.

[wvavin]

Since when Thailand is not in troubles?

[Baerboxer]

If Thailand's only problem was slow economic growth, it would be in no different situation than many developing nations given the current global economic slowdown.

But it has a number of unique issues that magnifies its economic troubles such as the following:

- political volitality likely into 2016

- undemocratic regime likely through 2016

- UN human rights violations

- potential ban of food products by USA and EU

- international civil aviation violations

- muslim insurgency in the South

- high household debt

- deflation

- increased foreign relations with anti-democratic regimes

So in terms of an economic recovery, yes Thailand is in immediate trouble.

Yes, Yes, - all the Juntas fault.

PTP had all those things well under control and their marvelous rice support scheme was a lesson to the world in how one country can control a global market.

Reality - look at what is going on in the world. China has mega problems, as does India. Brazil probably worse and all Putin can do is saber rattling. So forget the BRICS powering anything. Western stock markets have plummeted, the UK suffering a 13% loss since May. Current areas of conflict don't seem to be improving, some getting worse, new and potential areas springing up, massive illegal migrant issues and an increase in terrorist attacks.

Given that background the time honored Thai tradition, of all politicians and most others, of ignoring the problems and hoping they'll go away ain't going to help. Whichever gang is in power.

[twix38]

of course Thailand IS in trouble. Here's why..........

bombings and trouble with terrorism could yield a potential slowdown in tourism

A water drought effecting rice production. Some 40% of the Thai work force are in agricultural linked jobs and are cutting their consumption/spending.

High consumer debt also slowing household spending

Export growth and competitiveness has slowed.

Political instability and military gov't economic incompetence

wages have increased faster than productivity

a rapidly decreasing current account surplus may encourage foreign capital to leave

Thailand could slip into a deflationary morass

Edited August 23, 2015 by twix38

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

Thailand economicaly is not more doomed than the rest of the world. It doesnt have the highest debt to GDP nor the lowest it is not the highest risk for credit default nor the lowest etc etc. The extend to which it is doomed politicaly depends on the men in green. Normaly if men in green are involved my reaction is one of shaking - with laughter and fear.

[Utley]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

I've been hearing about ASEAN for a couple of years now but not once have I ever seen it explained what exactly it will mean to be part of the "ASEAN" community. Is ASEAN like NATO - no; is it like the European Union - no; is it like NAFTA - no. What exactly is it and specifically what will be the economic impact for it's members?

[bkkcanuck8]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

You are correct, but only so far as the term "third world country" is no longer used (and was a poor adaptation of what was originally meant to be non-aligned countries). The "proper" terminology is "developing" nation. Thailand has been part of ASEAN for a long time now. What you are referring to is ASEAN Economic Community (2015) - and that is more words on a paper and will not change much this year.

[mihalis]

Anyone who has a clue, knows most countries of the world a struggling... to those who keep putting Thailand down, why do you bother, im thinking to many bar girls have outsmarted you !!

[joebrown]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

That is not necessarily true. Recently I withdrew Bht 1,500,000 and the transaction was completed in minutes. Bangkok Bank by the way

Let's think about why people rarely keep large amounts of cash at home. There's obviously no interest earned and it isn't a very safe/secure place to keep it.

Similarly, banks would rather keep there most liquid assets at branches to a manageable but minimal level to meet expected customer demand. The more cash a bank keeps 'in hand' the less efficient it is in terms of potential profit in the money markets. From personal knowledge/experience banks have been lending out surplus funds 'overnight' in foreign markets for decades. This is a very short term/low return measure, but it ensures the bank's funds are earning income, not sitting idly whilst the banks doors are closed for the night.

[off road pat]

If Thailand's only problem was slow economic growth, it would be in no different situation than many developing nations given the current global economic slowdown.

But it has a number of unique issues that magnifies its economic troubles such as the following:

- political volitality likely into 2016

- undemocratic regime likely through 2016

- UN human rights violations

- potential ban of food products by USA and EU

- international civil aviation violations

- muslim insurgency in the South

- high household debt

- deflation

- increased foreign relations with anti-democratic regimes

So in terms of an economic recovery, yes Thailand is in immediate trouble.

To me, The undemocratic regime is less of a problem than the ex democratic one.....

Regards.

[ikwiljou]

"Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece."

I never had any problem to withdraw 1 or 2 million in cash from any bank so far in Thailand.

[off road pat]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

Very simplistic view of Thailand,....Woman, low cost of living and weather ?????, you obviously never went out of Pattaya did you....?

[geisha]

The main reason banks ask for 24 hours or more delay when you ask for your cash is security reasons. You are not the only one asking for cash withdrawals and the banks no longer hold millions!!

[MZurf]

If Thailand's only problem was slow economic growth, it would be in no different situation than many developing nations given the current global economic slowdown.

But it has a number of unique issues that magnifies its economic troubles such as the following:

- political volitality likely into 2016

- undemocratic regime likely through 2016

- UN human rights violations

- potential ban of food products by USA and EU

- international civil aviation violations

- muslim insurgency in the South

- high household debt

- deflation

- increased foreign relations with anti-democratic regimes

So in terms of an economic recovery, yes Thailand is in immediate trouble.

"But it has a number of unique issues"

Unique?? With a slight adjustment to a word or two here and there, that probably describes the issues facing most countries.

Seriously?? Please list the other nations that face the issues listed above (or are you just trolling?).

[NoshowJones]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

I've been hearing about ASEAN for a couple of years now but not once have I ever seen it explained what exactly it will mean to be part of the "ASEAN" community. Is ASEAN like NATO - no; is it like the European Union - no; is it like NAFTA - no. What exactly is it and specifically what will be the economic impact for it's members?

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country", What??????????????????????

[MZurf]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

Yes, I've heard nothing but ASEAN this and ASEAN that for the last few years. When I ask what exactly will be the benefits for Thailand I get a blank stare. I believe the first effect will be more unemployment in Thailand as people who actually speak English will start working in the tourism industry and other international industries.

[phuketandsee]

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

First of all Thailand is not a "Third world country" and second, Thailand will be joining ASEAN this year.

Yes, I've heard nothing but ASEAN this and ASEAN that for the last few years. When I ask what exactly will be the benefits for Thailand I get a blank stare. I believe the first effect will be more unemployment in Thailand as people who actually speak English will start working in the tourism industry and other international industries.

I understand this is unlikely as Thailand is keeping many barriers in place. ASEAN is not like the EU allowing free movement between members. However it will definitely help other members that are more fully committed overtake Thailand.

[Shiver]

Thailand has lots of troubles, though if talking about in terms of chances of financial collapse, I think it is one of the better countries. While the next depression will hurt Thailand, other countries (particularly in the West) will be falling off a cliff.

Edited August 23, 2015 by Shiver