New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[Grouse]

Well, the deed is done!

Only another 24M votes and we will have success!

Nothing to do now but go down to the pub

[Grouse]

Remain now at 87.5%.

I'm starting to cheer up!

[chiang mai]

Markets say it's virtually a done deal:

"Sterling hit a 2016 high - a series of late opinion polls favoured Britain staying in the European Union and bookmakers odds indicated a further shift towards the "Remain" camp. An Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, showed 52 percent of British voters would opt to remain while 48 percent would opt to leave. An online Populus poll showed support for an "In" vote at 55 percent.

Earlier polls by ComRes and by YouGov also showed a last-minute rise in support for Britain to remain in the EU. Sterling rose 1.5 percent in morning trade in London to top $1.49 for the first time this year. GBP=D4". The market is clearly now pricing in, with near certainty, a "Remain" vote... I do think a "Remain" vote is more likely, but not with the degree of certainty that appears to be now priced," said Adam Cole, head of G10 currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex-idUKKCN0Z901Q

[Orac]

Visit Barnsley @Barnsley

Brexit*

*What an overweight Barnsley lass does when she sits on a white plastic garden chair.

#barnsleyisbrill

[billd766]

It depends who one converses with

90%+ of the people I know are strongly remain

Of course they are engineers and other professionals. This is battle between the ABC1s and the C2DEs

I fear that with the current state of UK education and media, the latter group will prevail.

That, to me, has to be one of the most demeaning statements I have read for a long time with what it implies.

Does being an engineer make you better than anyone else? Having an education does not equate to having common sense or to mean that you know better than the rest.

It is comments like yours trying to imply you know better than the rest that would have driven me to vote to leave if I was a doubter.

What you fail to realise is that many on here do have an education but they do not have to shout about it.

I fail to understand your extreme sensitivity, but I'm afraid if the cap fits, put it on!

It is a matter of probabilities

Contributors here don't seem to understand statistics.

The point is that ABC1s are MORE LIKELY to vote remain. Nobody is saying that all will.

Can you understand that?

In the same way C2DEs will TEND TO vote Brexit.

My point was that the result may indicate what the balance is

There was a piece in The Economist recently which makes the same point

BTW, if you vote Brexit nobody is saying you are in the C2DE group!

I don't know why I bother frankly.....

Nor does anybody else know why you bother.

[Orac]

The currency and stock markets seem to have retreated a bit - is it raining there?

[chiang mai]

Argh! Can't get my chart to stick.

Edited June 23, 2016 by chiang mai

[sujoop]

Unfortunately many voters are primarily motivated by fear of immigrants

and as polls close at 10pm with most likely voting enroute after work,

if they see this beforehand, with roughly 50% more votes left to cast,

could push Brexit through:

'Many wounded' after gunman attacks German cinema

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-23/at-least-20-wounded-by-gunman-at-german-cinema/

Edited June 23, 2016 by sujoop

[tomacht8]

I guess it will be a remain. All 3 qualified UK teams are in the second round of the European Championship.
The frustration factor in the country is so much less.
If all teams (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) were eliminated in the preliminary round,
then it would have given an brexit.

Panem et circenses
Sicut in Roma antiqua

[Orac]

Unfortunately many voters are primarily motivated by fear of immigrants

and as polls close at 10pm with most likely voting enroute after work,

if they see this beforehand, with roughly 50% more votes left to cast,

could push Brexit through:

'Many wounded' after gunman attacks German cinema

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-06-23/at-least-20-wounded-by-gunman-at-german-cinema/

Early yet but he appears to have managed to open fire in a cinema and not actually hit anyone - injuries are due to teargas.

[Grouse]

I guess it will be a remain. All 3 qualified UK teams are in the second round of the European Championship.

The frustration factor in the country is so much less.

If all teams (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) were eliminated in the preliminary round,

then it would have given an brexit.

Panem et circenses

Sicut in Roma antiqua

Bread and circuses eh? A bit Juvenal?

[SheungWan]

I am seriously considering going down Dirty Den's tonight and get a couple of girls to dress up in a BREXIT outfit.

[Guest]

I'm actually happy to see that the folks in Britain are not as easily manipulated to thinking burning bridges is a good idea, as it seems to be in the USA at the moment.

[wooloomooloo]

You real think I draw some kind of welfare!

Haha! I can't see myself EVER retiring. I have 6 engineering companies in Thailand

However, if I was in such a position, there are countries MUCH more civilised than the UK.

I chose Germany or Denmark because I happen to speak the languages

?

You spend most of the day on TV yet manage to run six engineering companies. And multilingual.

Impressive stuff.

[moobie]

#1877, Grouse, May I add my Tuppence worth? Okay, I am one of those ABC1's who works in Engineering and has voted OUT when the polling booths opened at 7am this morning. Then, whilst on my commute into work on the local Metro system, I had a chance to ask an old school friend who now works in a "proper" University of old how he was finding the students within were approaching the vote. His reply was whilst many wanted to be hip and trendy and vote Remain there were many more than he thought who wanted to vote Leave. Both were however overshadowed by the "not bothered."

In my office there is definitely a split between those of us who served apprenticeships and progressed up via the old-fashioned way from those younger ones who entered the profession directly from university. Perhaps those of us in the former category still have empathy with those on he shopfloor and what they have endured as free movement has encroached upon their livelihoods?

It is in a similar manner to which you indicate that the those and the C2DE's will vote for Brexit. Most immigrants arriving in the UK are not skilled (forget even highly skilled) and it is directly these classes which are facing a greater struggle as it is their areas and job opportunities which have suffered. But these same people have a vote and they are part of UK society and in most cases will have an ethnic background so why should they not voice their opinion via the ballot box? After all unlike me, and I'm guessing you, they do not have what Michael Moore called "F#*k off money" and just bail out of a situation to begin pastures new if and when they feel like it. (And before anyone thinks I'm a socialist may I suggest you are very incorrect.)

Edited June 23, 2016 by moobie

[wooloomooloo]

My wife and I headed on down to the local Methodist Church this evening and duly posted two leave votes.

I'm more interested in this referendum than any other political event in my lifetime.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

[dhream]

I don't really have a dog in this fight, I have never been an anglophile, and, in general, I am not opposed to people leaving their homeland to live and work in another country - I've done it several times. However, what I see here is about one-third of the population of North Africa and the ME trying to cross the Mediterranean and invade Europe. They bring with them an economy-burdening poverty and a hostile culture that dilutes the indigenous culture to the point that, were it not recorded in literature and academia, it would no longer be recognizable. European families, in general, have taken responsible steps to voluntarily limit population increases through reproduction. Third world countries from Africa and Asia continue to produce large families to increase the number of workers in their units and to guarantee security for the elderly. That, coupled with the technology compassionately offered from the west, has increased the survival rate of their citizenry but it has not increased the economic opportunities to enjoy the out-of-reach living standards in Europe as witnessed by them in the media.

Compassion is an admirable trait, especially when exercised by nations with the support of their people. But in the modern world it is rapidly becoming a means of enabling that encourages people to leave their countries instead of struggling to fix them. Unless there is a radical change in the EU policy vis-a-vis immigration, continued membership in that organization will result in the accelerated dismantling of the UK.

The British Empire is long gone. It is time for the British people to expiate itself of the guilt for sins it committed during that era and function again as a cohesive, focused unit the way it did during its heroic days of the early 1940s. That cannot happen if it continues to carry the burdens imposed by continued membership in EU.

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

[KunMatt]

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

I think you are getting confused with what the EU and NATO are and what they can be credited with.

[Thaiwine]

I don't really have a dog in this fight, I have never been an anglophile, and, in general, I am not opposed to people leaving their homeland to live and work in another country - I've done it several times. However, what I see here is about one-third of the population of North Africa and the ME trying to cross the Mediterranean and invade Europe. They bring with them an economy-burdening poverty and a hostile culture that dilutes the indigenous culture to the point that, were it not recorded in literature and academia, it would no longer be recognizable. European families, in general, have taken responsible steps to voluntarily limit population increases through reproduction. Third world countries from Africa and Asia continue to produce large families to increase the number of workers in their units and to guarantee security for the elderly. That, coupled with the technology compassionately offered from the west, has increased the survival rate of their citizenry but it has not increased the economic opportunities to enjoy the out-of-reach living standards in Europe as witnessed by them in the media.

Compassion is an admirable trait, especially when exercised by nations with the support of their people. But in the modern world it is rapidly becoming a means of enabling that encourages people to leave their countries instead of struggling to fix them. Unless there is a radical change in the EU policy vis-a-vis immigration, continued membership in that organization will result in the accelerated dismantling of the UK.

The British Empire is long gone. It is time for the British people to expiate itself of the guilt for sins it committed during that era and function again as a cohesive, focused unit the way it did during its heroic days of the early 1940s. That cannot happen if it continues to carry the burdens imposed by continued membership in EU.

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

So if the UK leaves the EU who do you think may make war on who. and how will the UK remaining in the EU make a difference?

[cumgranosalum]

either way this referendum has been a croc - it has shown how stupid many people in the UK can be, it has divided the nation - and that won't stop tomorrow.......the most galling thing is that we didn't ask for a referendum, we were TOLD we were going to have one - it is not a normal governmental process in the UK and it challenges the sovereignty of parliament....in fact it isn't eve legally binding.

[KunMatt]

either way this referendum has been a croc - it has shown how stupid many people in the UK can be, it has divided the nation - and that won't stop tomorrow.......the most galling thing is that we didn't ask for a referendum, we were TOLD we were going to have one - it is not a normal governmental process in the UK and it challenges the sovereignty of parliament....in fact it isn't eve legally binding.

Jeez, where to start with this load of nonsense?

Just go and fact check your post yourself, I can't even be bothered to put you right.

[cumgranosalum]

I don't really have a dog in this fight, I have never been an anglophile, and, in general, I am not opposed to people leaving their homeland to live and work in another country - I've done it several times. However, what I see here is about one-third of the population of North Africa and the ME trying to cross the Mediterranean and invade Europe. They bring with them an economy-burdening poverty and a hostile culture that dilutes the indigenous culture to the point that, were it not recorded in literature and academia, it would no longer be recognizable. European families, in general, have taken responsible steps to voluntarily limit population increases through reproduction. Third world countries from Africa and Asia continue to produce large families to increase the number of workers in their units and to guarantee security for the elderly. That, coupled with the technology compassionately offered from the west, has increased the survival rate of their citizenry but it has not increased the economic opportunities to enjoy the out-of-reach living standards in Europe as witnessed by them in the media.

Compassion is an admirable trait, especially when exercised by nations with the support of their people. But in the modern world it is rapidly becoming a means of enabling that encourages people to leave their countries instead of struggling to fix them. Unless there is a radical change in the EU policy vis-a-vis immigration, continued membership in that organization will result in the accelerated dismantling of the UK.

The British Empire is long gone. It is time for the British people to expiate itself of the guilt for sins it committed during that era and function again as a cohesive, focused unit the way it did during its heroic days of the early 1940s. That cannot happen if it continues to carry the burdens imposed by continued membership in EU.

The EU has many problems but for 70 years Europeans have not slaughtered each other.

We can thank EU for that.

Or we can risk another Somme, Paschendale, Flanders, Normandy, Auschwitz, and Berlin. The refugees are small beer by comparison to those horrors..

So if the UK leaves the EU who do you think may make war on who. and how will the UK remaining in the EU make a difference?

Well the first thing that springs to mind is that the Northern Ireland peace agreement has EU membership as part of the agreement.

at present, wars are fought over oil, in the future it will be water and other resources. UK normally gets involved after having signed agreements (ententes) with other nations...in the next 10 years there could be a lot of new treaties signed and the UK could find itself having to protect its interests in all sorts of places we'd never even dreamed of in the EU.

We've had war in Europe out side the EU in very recent years, and if the EU starts to crack there is no guarantee countries won't drift that way again.

[cumgranosalum]

either way this referendum has been a croc - it has shown how stupid many people in the UK can be, it has divided the nation - and that won't stop tomorrow.......the most galling thing is that we didn't ask for a referendum, we were TOLD we were going to have one - it is not a normal governmental process in the UK and it challenges the sovereignty of parliament....in fact it isn't eve legally binding.

Jeez, where to start with this load of nonsense?

Just go and fact check your post yourself, I can't even be bothered to put you right.

a brilliant and succinct argument.......but you forgot to post it.

[webfact]

LONDON (AP) - Reports that 'remain' vote appears headed to victory in EU referendum sends the British pound surging 1 percent against the U.S. dollar.

[cumgranosalum]

There are significant differences in the polls - phone polls tend to say "in" and internet "out" - go figure.

At the last general election ALL the polls got it seriously wrong.....I wouldn't count any chickens before they hatch, especially if it's a load of coke-addled rich kids trying to make an extra quick buck before a crash.

Edited June 23, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[arjunadawn]

It's 2235 UK time. Reports state Farage concedes the vote, the loss. I was quite keen that UK Leave. Seems Remain won. A few points:

I think this vote choice is a terrible error and a unique opportunity like this may never present again. But, it was certainly voted openly and with interest. It may have been provoked from both sides but I think it was a fair vote. So. It's done!

This was difficult for people on both sides and it seemed their nation was seriously injured by the process; maybe. I think though that something quite democratic was evidenced in the process. And this is the most ironic part of this- the Remain is essentially a vote for the anti democratic! No question about that. This will be a curious historical artifact- that Brits used a single democratic silver bullet to vote for anti democracy. My point will be proven sooner rather then later.

I hope UK can unite and move on toward the future both sides claimed they commanded. Good luck UK. Wish you peace and prosperity.

[cumgranosalum]

My wife and I headed on down to the local Methodist Church this evening and duly posted two leave votes.

I'm more interested in this referendum than any other political event in my lifetime.

Tomorrow will be interesting.

It seems a common misconception amongst Brexiteers that "tomorrow" will be the end of it..........this referendum has done untold damage to the cohesion of the nation it has revealed racism and bigotry amongst a huge number of people and stirred up a lot of bad feeling.

Brexiteers seem to cite reasons from the last year for leaving and then think that by "tomorrow" everything will be over......in fact the EU membership debate has been going (good and bad) for over 40 years - effectively since WW2, and is an important theme throughout British history.....the results of any Brexit will not truly be felt for a couple of years and then over the next 40 will make themselves felt.........something many on this thread won't need to worry about, because they will be dead.

Why anyone would want to lunch the UK on this long protracted downward spiral to a "little England" is quite beyond me.

The question all Brexiteers should be asking themselves now is "OMG, WHAT HAVE I DONE"?

[cumgranosalum]

It's 2235 UK time. Reports state Farage concedes the vote, the loss. I was quite keen that UK Leave. Seems Remain won. A few points:

I think this vote choice is a terrible error and a unique opportunity like this may never present again. But, it was certainly voted openly and with interest. It may have been provoked from both sides but I think it was a fair vote. So. It's done!

This was difficult for people on both sides and it seemed their nation was seriously injured by the process; maybe. I think though that something quite democratic was evidenced in the process. And this is the most ironic part of this- the Remain is essentially a vote for the anti democratic! No question about that. This will be a curious historical artifact- that Brits used a single democratic silver bullet to vote for anti democracy. My point will be proven sooner rather then later.

I hope UK can unite and move on toward the future both sides claimed they commanded. Good luck UK. Wish you peace and prosperity.

It is highly debatable in the UK especially as to how "democratic" a referendum actually is......... to some it is just mob rule.....there is a difference.

Edited June 23, 2016 by cumgranosalum

[allanos]

Is it a full moon tonight? The wolves are howling.

Within the last hour, the 3 following comments have been read on TVF,

by members:

A Brexit vote will lead to World War III

David Cameron has committed treason

Lastly, although vote counting has not started yet, Nigel Farage has conceded the referendum

to the Remain side!

This is passion gone crazy. Get a grip!

[webfact]

LONDON (AP) - UK Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage tells Sky news "it looks like 'remain' will edge it" in EU referendum.