EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

[Thaiwine]

These young ones need to have lots of kids then their children won't have to suffer being out voted by the older generation.

[tribalfusion001]

As many people said before: It´s the young generation that lost / will lose out ... I feel sorry for that generation ...

Only time will tell now. But young people were already totally shafted in the UK with educational debts and lunatic house prices, insecure employment with no wage increases. Not sure how it'll all change now.

How many of these people are ever going to work in Europe, not many. Most of the UK citizens living in Europe are retired, its one way traffic of people coming to the UK. I don't see many UK citizens going off to work in Romania or Poland. Poland is the country that takes the most EU benefits, maybe expanding the EU to former Eastern bloc countries was not a good idea.

The richer countries just pay more to help the poorer countries out, huge areas of the UK could do with help. If the UK economy retreats slightly, but boosts areas of the country that need investment it will grow the economy anyway.

[mrfill]

As many people said before: It´s the young generation that lost / will lose out ... I feel sorry for that generation ...

Only time will tell now. But young people were already totally shafted in the UK with educational debts and lunatic house prices, insecure employment with no wage increases. Not sure how it'll all change now.

Well, none of the above are as a result of being in the EU. And none will change in the future, except perhaps employment rights being reduced making it even more insecure. Lunatic house prices are being paid by Russians and Chinese in London, neither country being in the EU but neither being good for avoiding tax.

[MJP]

Good comment in the Indy . . .

There is and will be nothing to stop you travelling in the EU. The EU will offer visa free travel as it does to most countries. British tourists spend more money in the EU than any other nationality and some Southern economies would be devastated without it.

Few of Britain's students studying abroad for full degrees are in the EU. Most are in the other English speaking countries. EU universities will still offer language and other courses to British students and we will do the same to them. These reciprocal arrangements were in place post War to boost language skills, they predate the EU. My dad went from a council flat in Scotland to the Sorbonne in 1951. This idea that exchange degrees will end is made up. No one is proposing this.

The majority of young British people who live and work abroad do so in Australia, Canada and USA. Many also work in India and China and around the planet. There are more British in Australia than all 27 countries of the EU added together. Let's face it, how many people want to work for Slovenian or Romanian pay compared to American?

Most British young people do not actually have the language skills to work in the EU. How is your Danish, Swedish, Dutch or Flemish? The pay is too low in all of the southern and eastern states which is why they are here and we are not there.

But if people do want to work abroad they will apply for and get jobs and visas just as they do for Australia etc.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain-out-of-europe-referendum-latest-a7101806.html

Edited June 25, 2016 by MJP

[Thaiwine]

Can things get much worse? George George where for art thou?

http://newsthump.com/2016/06/25/concerned-nation-joins-hunt-for-missing-george-osborne/

[tribalfusion001]

Good comment in the Indy . . .

There is and will be nothing to stop you travelling in the EU. The EU will offer visa free travel as it does to most countries. British tourists spend more money in the EU than any other nationality and some Southern economies would be devastated without it.

Few of Britain's students studying abroad for full degrees are in the EU. Most are in the other English speaking countries. EU universities will still offer language and other courses to British students and we will do the same to them. These reciprocal arrangements were in place post War to boost language skills, they predate the EU. My dad went from a council flat in Scotland to the Sorbonne in 1951. This idea that exchange degrees will end is made up. No one is proposing this.

The majority of young British people who live and work abroad do so in Australia, Canada and USA. Many also work in India and China and around the planet. There are more British in Australia than all 27 countries of the EU added together. Let's face it, how many people want to work for Slovenian or Romanian pay compared to American?

Most British young people do not actually have the language skills to work in the EU. How is your Danish, Swedish, Dutch or Flemish? The pay is too low in all of the southern and eastern states which is why they are here and we are not there.

But if people do want to work abroad they will apply for and get jobs and visas just as they do for Australia etc.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain-out-of-europe-referendum-latest-a7101806.html

How very true, a lot of Brits in Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia. We holiday and retire in Europe, but not work there.

[Thaiwine]

Good comment in the Indy . . .

There is and will be nothing to stop you travelling in the EU. The EU will offer visa free travel as it does to most countries. British tourists spend more money in the EU than any other nationality and some Southern economies would be devastated without it.

Few of Britain's students studying abroad for full degrees are in the EU. Most are in the other English speaking countries. EU universities will still offer language and other courses to British students and we will do the same to them. These reciprocal arrangements were in place post War to boost language skills, they predate the EU. My dad went from a council flat in Scotland to the Sorbonne in 1951. This idea that exchange degrees will end is made up. No one is proposing this.

The majority of young British people who live and work abroad do so in Australia, Canada and USA. Many also work in India and China and around the planet. There are more British in Australia than all 27 countries of the EU added together. Let's face it, how many people want to work for Slovenian or Romanian pay compared to American?

Most British young people do not actually have the language skills to work in the EU. How is your Danish, Swedish, Dutch or Flemish? The pay is too low in all of the southern and eastern states which is why they are here and we are not there.

But if people do want to work abroad they will apply for and get jobs and visas just as they do for Australia etc.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-prime-minister-britain-out-of-europe-referendum-latest-a7101806.html

I got about a third of the way down before I got fed up with the biased sensationalism,

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the European Union has "no need to be particularly nasty in any way" in the negotiations with Britain about its exit from the bloc.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36630326

[Crowes]

As many people said before: It´s the young generation that lost / will lose out ... I feel sorry for that generation ...

Based on what? Brexit could and will likely be the best thing that has ever happened to the UK.

[hawker9000]

From a personal point of view (being Aussie) I liked the outcome, didn't think the UK population had the balls to vote for such radical change.

Even more importantly for me was the knee jerk reaction of the ASX and world stock markets. Spent more $AUD in one day -BUYING- than I have ever done. Saved some for Monday as well just to see if stabilization does not occur over the weekend and more bargain opportunities arise.

IMHO it won't take too long for the GBP to recover.

Probably right. The vote touched off some selling, which the computer programs amplified. Totally predictable, and almost certainly an overreaction, which might just represent an opportunity for the more clear-thinking... In the end, I doubt it'll be the scaremongers carrying the day.

Having said that, rumors (or maybe even fact) going forward of other defections will spawn renewed bouts of uncertainty and market volatility I'm sure.

I also think that, correctly or un-, immigration will be perceived as playing a larger & larger role in this and become even more of a factor in future national debates (and possible referenda) than was true in the UK. Those shouting "racist" and "bigot" should perhaps consider what effect their screaming is really having on the discourse...

[JHolmesJr]

There are now Facebook posts popping up from people with dodgy internet names like "Lulu45"

The gist of these posts is…I voted LEAVE for a laff/because I thought the REMAIN side was scaremongering and lying….but now it seems all so serious….if I could re-vote, I'd vote REMAIN.

Seems like the REMAIN camp is still up to its dirty tricks, trying to make out like they lost due to daft and irrational voters.

I hope they're not trying to overturn the will of the 17 million.

I wouldn't put anything above that slimy turdsnake DavidCameron.

Edited June 25, 2016 by JHolmesJr

[mommysboy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years. That might only effect financial services though, but it will be decimated as far as European activities are concerned unless a trading permit is obtained. In order to trade in Europe banks will have to set up Head Offices in Eurozone. That will also include the British Banks. The pound would likely be devalued further. The present welfare system could not possibly be sustained, or such a sizable army supported. A deep recession would likely occur, probably on the scale of what Russia is incurring. The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

Living in Thailand suddenly appears a whole lot better proposition to me. Even if the pound plummets. I am planning around 40 baht to pound as an emergency measure. I'm sure England will rebuild over time though. Very resourceful people.

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

[JHolmesJr]

The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

That, in itself, would be worth the price of admission….or in this case, rejection.

Let all the scroungers go to Romania and steal some jobs/build some mosques/cadge free benefits there.

[hawker9000]

The trade agreements will happen, and won't take "many years". There's a will, so there'll be a way. Financial services will certainly be impacted, but "decimated"? No way. Almost pure hyperbole. Brussels will have a hard time holding out on terms with the UK. Fear of more dissension in the ranks... Much of what we're hearing now is just "noise", mostly from the sour grapes crowd.

[mommysboy]

The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

That, in itself, would be worth the price of admission….or in this case, rejection.

Let all the scroungers go to Romania and steal some jobs/build some mosques/cadge free benefits there.

It's likely to be a very heavy price short term. But the devaluation might lead to an export boom and a chance to redevelop links with Asia, America, and the former colonies. It's coming from a very low base. British producers, such as farmers will sell within country too. Lots of swings and roundabouts, but no bones about it, it will be tough. As I say, for a lot of our stuff, there will be high demand even in Europe. But the decimation of the financial services sector is going to be very tough I imagine. No more bleeding the welfare state dry that's for sure. And providing jobs are around British people will have to fill the immigrant's jobs- pick fruit or die of starvation really.

Personally I will be praying Article 50 does not get enacted.

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

[tribalfusion001]

The trade agreements will happen, and won't take "many years". There's a will, so there'll be a way. Financial services will certainly be impacted, but "decimated"? No way. Almost pure hyperbole. Brussels will have a hard time holding out on terms with the UK. Fear of more dissension in the ranks... Much of what we're hearing now is just "noise", mostly from the sour grapes crowd.

The EU will lose out, it will lose our £10 billion in contributions and someone has to pick up the bill, Germany and France mainly, the other economies are hardly in the same league as the UK, France and Germany.

Lots of hot air from a few foreign ministers who want the UK to have a nasty exit, but if anything they need to watch out for more dissenting voices in the EU ranks.

The UK polictians are watching football, cricket and rugby drinking tea and eating biscuits whilst the EU poo its pants...

[chilli42]

Remain = 13,266,996, 46.6%

Leave = 15,188,406, 53.4%

A win for leave, but hardly a decisive one.

Would you have said exactly the same if the result was the other way around?

Remain lost.

Learn to live with it and get over it?

I wasn't trying to belittle the achievement, but if it was 60/40 or greater for Brexit it would have reduced the sense of frustration that many are probably feeling.

I would have said exactly the same if it had been the other way round - just as I said when the Scottish referendum results were realised. A near-enough 50/50 split makes it harder to build bridges.

I have no idea what the Scottish referendum decision split was set at but that would have been a good benchmark to follow. Hopefully they did the same for the EU exit vote.

[bkkcanuck8]

The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

That, in itself, would be worth the price of admission….or in this case, rejection.

Let all the scroungers go to Romania and steal some jobs/build some mosques/cadge free benefits there.

It's likely to be a very heavy price short term. But the devaluation might lead to an export boom and a chance to redevelop links with Asia, America, and the former colonies. It's coming from a very low base. British producers, such as farmers will sell within country too. Lots of swings and roundabouts, but no bones about it, it will be tough. As I say, for a lot of our stuff, there will be high demand even in Europe. But the decimation of the financial services sector is going to be very tough I imagine.

Personally I will be praying Article 50 does not get enacted.

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

[hawker9000]

The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

That, in itself, would be worth the price of admission….or in this case, rejection.

Let all the scroungers go to Romania and steal some jobs/build some mosques/cadge free benefits there.

It's likely to be a very heavy price short term. But the devaluation might lead to an export boom and a chance to redevelop links with Asia, America, and the former colonies. It's coming from a very low base. British producers, such as farmers will sell within country too. Lots of swings and roundabouts, but no bones about it, it will be tough. As I say, for a lot of our stuff, there will be high demand even in Europe. But the decimation of the financial services sector is going to be very tough I imagine.

Personally I will be praying Article 50 does not get enacted.

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

[mommysboy]

The trade agreements will happen, and won't take "many years". There's a will, so there'll be a way. Financial services will certainly be impacted, but "decimated"? No way. Almost pure hyperbole. Brussels will have a hard time holding out on terms with the UK. Fear of more dissension in the ranks... Much of what we're hearing now is just "noise", mostly from the sour grapes crowd.

But isn't it true that Britain will not have a licence to offer financial services in EU. Why would they want to give us one? Or trade agreements for that matter?

Sorry for the hyperbole. I'm sure we'll muddle through somehow. And there will be an export boom I'm sure and all sorts of other business opportunities. I reckon we'll be trading a lot more with US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand for starters.

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

[tribalfusion001]

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

Yep Geert Wilders was happy for Brexit and could win the election next year, hence the haste of the current Dutch government for article 50 to be invoked.

The city of London's position as a major financial hub won't change anytime soon.

Edited June 25, 2016 by tribalfusion001

[bkkcanuck8]

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

Yep Geert Wilders was happy for Brexit and could win the election next year, hence the haste of the current Dutch government for article 50 to be invoked.

The city of London's position as a major financial hub won't change anytime soon.

Maybe not, but I lived worked in London 2002/2003 timeframe as a VP for an American company who opened up our first "European" office/branch there around then.... I doubt we would have chosen it for our first European location if England were not in the EU.

[mommysboy]

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

Yep Geert Wilders was happy for Brexit and could win the election next year, hence the haste of the current Dutch government for article 50 to be invoked.

The city of London's position as a major financial hub won't change anytime soon.

Maybe not, but I lived worked in London 2002/2003 timeframe as a VP for an American company who opened up our first "European" office/branch there around then.... I doubt we would have chosen it for our first European location if England were not in the EU.

I would say this is indisputable.

[tribalfusion001]

The trade agreements will happen, and won't take "many years". There's a will, so there'll be a way. Financial services will certainly be impacted, but "decimated"? No way. Almost pure hyperbole. Brussels will have a hard time holding out on terms with the UK. Fear of more dissension in the ranks... Much of what we're hearing now is just "noise", mostly from the sour grapes crowd.

But isn't it true that Britain will not have a licence to offer financial services in EU. Why would they want to give us one? Or trade agreements for that matter?

Sorry for the hyperbole. I'm sure we'll muddle through somehow. And there will be an export boom I'm sure.

The Europeans are generally a bunch of pussies and won't have the balls to take us on. It's all hot hair on their part and they will crumble after we blank them for 4 months whilst having a leadership contest. The Scots have not got a prayer of getting into the EU, RBS is theirs and oil is dropping in price, Sturgeon makes me laugh, she thinks a barren piece of land with no industry is worth something to the EU lol

[Thaiwine]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years. That might only effect financial services though, but it will be decimated as far as European activities are concerned unless a trading permit is obtained. In order to trade in Europe banks will have to set up Head Offices in Eurozone. That will also include the British Banks. The pound would likely be devalued further. The present welfare system could not possibly be sustained, or such a sizable army supported. A deep recession would likely occur, probably on the scale of what Russia is incurring. The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

Living in Thailand suddenly appears a whole lot better proposition to me. Even if the pound plummets. I am planning around 40 baht to pound as an emergency measure. I'm sure England will rebuild over time though. Very resourceful people.

we are not yet 2 days after the results were announced and it is now the weekend, please calm down we had enough crap spouted by DC and co for the past few weeks, the only thing that has happened the pound dropped 2 baht, markets are coming back after 1 day, you are not helping the country by peddling rumors and scare stories

[tribalfusion001]

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

Yep Geert Wilders was happy for Brexit and could win the election next year, hence the haste of the current Dutch government for article 50 to be invoked.

The city of London's position as a major financial hub won't change anytime soon.

Maybe not, but I lived worked in London 2002/2003 timeframe as a VP for an American company who opened up our first "European" office/branch there around then.... I doubt we would have chosen it for our first European location if England were not in the EU.

It was a major financial hub before the Eurozone started and moving everything to Paris or Frankfurt would be expensive.

[mommysboy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years. That might only effect financial services though, but it will be decimated as far as European activities are concerned unless a trading permit is obtained. In order to trade in Europe banks will have to set up Head Offices in Eurozone. That will also include the British Banks. The pound would likely be devalued further. The present welfare system could not possibly be sustained, or such a sizable army supported. A deep recession would likely occur, probably on the scale of what Russia is incurring. The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

Living in Thailand suddenly appears a whole lot better proposition to me. Even if the pound plummets. I am planning around 40 baht to pound as an emergency measure. I'm sure England will rebuild over time though. Very resourceful people.

we are not yet 2 days after the results were announced and it is now the weekend, please calm down we had enough crap spouted by DC and co for the past few weeks, the only thing that has happened the pound dropped 2 baht, markets are coming back after 1 day, you are not helping the country by peddling rumors and scare stories

Perhaps I'm overstating. Equally, I'm sure you are understating. It'll be tough.

I don't think it helps the country by leaving in all honesty. Christ! what an own goal.!

Really hope these negotiations go well.

Edited June 25, 2016 by mommysboy

[bkkcanuck8]

quote name="bkkcanuck8"

The UK was in many ways acting as a European expert/proxy for companies headquartered elsewhere in the English speaking world. Now that England is outside the EU, that relationship no longer exists other countries may get more of the European branch operations ... some will likely just step over and set them up in the Netherlands.

--

...except that the Netherlands is among those countries that could be next out the EU door...

Yep Geert Wilders was happy for Brexit and could win the election next year, hence the haste of the current Dutch government for article 50 to be invoked.

The city of London's position as a major financial hub won't change anytime soon.

Maybe not, but I lived worked in London 2002/2003 timeframe as a VP for an American company who opened up our first "European" office/branch there around then.... I doubt we would have chosen it for our first European location if England were not in the EU.

It was a major financial hub before the Eurozone started and moving everything to Paris or Frankfurt would be expensive.

England had an oversized importance / economy in many areas because of it's legacy as an Empire. With England (potentially alone) down to around 60 million people and turning inwards -- I could easily see London operations being downsized and upsized elsewhere. It will hold less importance. You will have a market of 60 million on one side of the channel, and one of maybe 450 million on the other side. Almost proportionate to Canada vs the United States

[tribalfusion001]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years. That might only effect financial services though, but it will be decimated as far as European activities are concerned unless a trading permit is obtained. In order to trade in Europe banks will have to set up Head Offices in Eurozone. That will also include the British Banks. The pound would likely be devalued further. The present welfare system could not possibly be sustained, or such a sizable army supported. A deep recession would likely occur, probably on the scale of what Russia is incurring. The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

Living in Thailand suddenly appears a whole lot better proposition to me. Even if the pound plummets. I am planning around 40 baht to pound as an emergency measure. I'm sure England will rebuild over time though. Very resourceful people.

we are not yet 2 days after the results were announced and it is now the weekend, please calm down we had enough crap spouted by DC and co for the past few weeks, the only thing that has happened the pound dropped 2 baht, markets are coming back after 1 day, you are not helping the country by peddling rumors and scare stories

perhaps I'm overstating. Equally, I'm sure you are understating. It'll be tough.

Cameron must have of known that he would lose a EU referendum, the UK is hardly a Europhile country. Corbyn is a Eurosceptic and didn't care one way or the other, the whole Remain campaign was flat, maybe on purpose. Cameron didn't get any worthwhile concessions in February, The EU leaders probably thought the UK public would go with the status quo, now they have Europe wide problem of people demanding referendums on the EU, oh well!

[Thaiwine]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years. That might only effect financial services though, but it will be decimated as far as European activities are concerned unless a trading permit is obtained. In order to trade in Europe banks will have to set up Head Offices in Eurozone. That will also include the British Banks. The pound would likely be devalued further. The present welfare system could not possibly be sustained, or such a sizable army supported. A deep recession would likely occur, probably on the scale of what Russia is incurring. The immigration problem would undoubtedly be solved, quite simply people won't want to come here.

Living in Thailand suddenly appears a whole lot better proposition to me. Even if the pound plummets. I am planning around 40 baht to pound as an emergency measure. I'm sure England will rebuild over time though. Very resourceful people.

we are not yet 2 days after the results were announced and it is now the weekend, please calm down we had enough crap spouted by DC and co for the past few weeks, the only thing that has happened the pound dropped 2 baht, markets are coming back after 1 day, you are not helping the country by peddling rumors and scare stories

Perhaps I'm overstating. Equally, I'm sure you are understating. It'll be tough.

I don't think it helps the country by leaving in all honesty. Christ! what an own goal.!

Really hope these negotiations go well.

We can still trade with the EU with no deal, that would be under wto rules, other non treaty countries trade with the EU countries so can we, we have two years to sort out our relationship with the EU the only diffrence in those two years is we will not be able to influence future polices, and quite rightly too. As I understand it passporting is done by companies not the govenment, they can just open an office in an EU country like Ireland then carry on as before, (someone correct me if I am wrong on that one)

[tribalfusion001]

England had an oversized importance / economy in many areas because of it's legacy as an Empire. With England (potentially alone) down to around 60 million people and turning inwards -- I could easily see London operations being downsized and upsized elsewhere. It will hold less importance. You will have a market of 60 million on one side of the channel, and one of maybe 450 million on the other side. Almost proportionate to Canada vs the United States

I'm pretty sure that we have enough friends in the world for new trade partnerships and when you have given the world an international language then you can have an "oversized importance" too.

You really should think about how the EU is going to plug the gap in funding that we contribute, can't see Romania or Poland helping with that or Greece even. Failed states, corrupt states, bankrupt states and the Germans having to pay for it all.