Baht depreciation expected

[David Walden]

12 hours ago, Banana7 said:

As at 6JAN2018 19:40 Thailand time, all technical indicators are saying to sell USD and buy THB,  USD = 32.174B at https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

 

Technical indicators:

Buy: 0

Sell: 10

Neutral: 0

Summary:Strong Sell

Moving averages:

Buy: 0

Sell: 12

Summary:Strong Sell

 

You may be right, you maybe wrong. Guess what, it seems everybody hates Trump at the moment but the the price of shares in the US is going gangbusters at present.  Yes the price is going up and the dividends are going down.

 

The US share market requires about 40 years of dividends to recover an investment.  If you had Coca Cola shares only a few years ago it took 62 years to get your investment back,  all base on sentiment.  There are many other shares with high values and not paying dividends (that's why you invest, dividends)  The  Dow share market value exceeds the price of shares listed in 2008 collapse by lots.  It is now 3.5 times the value of 2008 after the meltdown,  i.e. It got down to 7000 then, it is now around 25,000, lots of fairy floss there.  The dividends are very low.  By comparison the Australian share market still has not reach the value ASX 200 that it was before the financial meltdown in 2008 it was 6700 approx then, It is about 6200 today.  My modest personal across the board investments have had a dividend for the last 4 years of around 7/8% plus 3/4% capital gains making the value increase by about 11% P/A (OK).    A similar portfolio in the US would likely return about 3/4% P/A. The value of my modest investments is nearing the 2008 value before the meltdown.  (6700).  Lost nearly half in that fiasco.  There are plenty of traps for young and old share market players today. 

 

It is my belief the Dow index the US share market is over valued by 2.2 of its real value with dividends paid.  Many retirement funds in the US are paying out pensions to its members by cashing in over valued shares not dividends...not good.  Selling fairy floss again.

 

I believe the real value of the US Dow share market is about 12,000 it is over valued when compared to other countries (Aus and others).  We are not there yet and some time may be available for a slow correction.  I believe the Dow US share market is over valued by 13,000 point.  If it keeps going this way the dollar and share market is on track for a big nose dive , when will they ever learn (1929 again).  I hope I'm wrong?  Don't think so.  It will also bring the Aussie market down also, not looking forward to that either. ( shit not again).

 

The value of the US dollar is in the hands of many who have no idea what to do.

 

PS...you heard the one ...  The army captain said to the cook  "another 20 men coming for lunch.  Put another bucket of water in the stew"  I think the same thing is happening in the US and Aus share market and the US dollar.  Sooner or later you'll stave to death eating (army stew).

Edited January 7, 2018 by David Walden

[talahtnut]

15 hours ago, David Walden said:

You may be right, you maybe wrong. Guess what, it seems everybody hates Trump at the moment but the the price of shares in the US is going gangbusters at present.  Yes the price is going up and the dividends are going down.

 

The US share market requires about 40 years of dividends to recover an investment.  If you had Coca Cola shares only a few years ago it took 62 years to get your investment back,  all base on sentiment.  There are many other shares with high values and not paying dividends (that's why you invest, dividends)  The  Dow share market value exceeds the price of shares listed in 2008 collapse by lots.  It is now 3.5 times the value of 2008 after the meltdown,  i.e. It got down to 7000 then, it is now around 25,000, lots of fairy floss there.  The dividends are very low.  By comparison the Australian share market still has not reach the value ASX 200 that it was before the financial meltdown in 2008 it was 6700 approx then, It is about 6200 today.  My modest personal across the board investments have had a dividend for the last 4 years of around 7/8% plus 3/4% capital gains making the value increase by about 11% P/A (OK).    A similar portfolio in the US would likely return about 3/4% P/A. The value of my modest investments is nearing the 2008 value before the meltdown.  (6700).  Lost nearly half in that fiasco.  There are plenty of traps for young and old share market players today. 

 

It is my belief the Dow index the US share market is over valued by 2.2 of its real value with dividends paid.  Many retirement funds in the US are paying out pensions to its members by cashing in over valued shares not dividends...not good.  Selling fairy floss again.

 

I believe the real value of the US Dow share market is about 12,000 it is over valued when compared to other countries (Aus and others).  We are not there yet and some time may be available for a slow correction.  I believe the Dow US share market is over valued by 13,000 point.  If it keeps going this way the dollar and share market is on track for a big nose dive , when will they ever learn (1929 again).  I hope I'm wrong?  Don't think so.  It will also bring the Aussie market down also, not looking forward to that either. ( shit not again).

 

The value of the US dollar is in the hands of many who have no idea what to do.

 

PS...you heard the one ...  The army captain said to the cook  "another 20 men coming for lunch.  Put another bucket of water in the stew"  I think the same thing is happening in the US and Aus share market and the US dollar.  Sooner or later you'll stave to death eating (army stew).

Ever thought of nipping into a casino and sticking the lot on red?

Only the big boys win on the stocks.

I cant see its a good idea to let someone else handle your money.

IMHO the ฿ is the way to go..western economists are insane.

[David Walden]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

Ever thought of nipping into a casino and sticking the lot on red?

Only the big boys win on the stocks.

I cant see its a good idea to let someone else handle your money.

IMHO the ฿ is the way to go..western economists are insane.

I'm not sure that into to days financial world there is much choice investments are a gamble.  Usually I don't gamble and I've only ever been to one horse races in my (long) life.  I had 2 bets a pure stab in the dark.  My 1st winner was "Jackman" came home at 7 to 2, got my money back plus 3 pound 10 shilling (that's how long ago).  The second horse was called "Down and Out"  about 500 yards from the winning post there was a bad fall in the race "down and out"  who was coming last jumped over the favorite and went around the mess to come home 2 length ahead of the second favorite and one the race at 14 to 1.

I've never put a bet on any horse since, for the outlay of 3 pounds 10 shillings I got 40 something pounds back.  $80 for $7 outlay in to-days money.  Not having put a dollar on any horse since I just might be one of the most successful punters ever.  Anyhow that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Wish I could do the same with money exchanges today.  I always be a horse race winner.

Edited January 7, 2018 by David Walden

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, David Walden said:

I'm not sure that into to days financial world there is much choice investments are a gamble.  Usually I don't gamble and I've only ever been to one horse races in my (long) life.  I had 2 bets a pure stab in the dark.  My 1st winner was "Jackman" came home at 7 to 2, got my money back plus 3 pound 10 shilling (that's how long ago).  The second horse was called "Down and Out"  about 500 yards from the winning post there was a bad fall in the race "down and out"  who was coming last jumped over the favorite and went around the mess to come home 2 length ahead of the second favorite and one the race at 14 to 1.

I've never put a bet on any horse since, for the outlay of 3 pounds 10 shillings I got 40 something pounds back.  $80 for $7 outlay in to-days money.  Not having put a dollar on any horse since I just might be one of the most successful punters ever.  Anyhow that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Wish I could do the same with money exchanges today.  I always be a horse race winner.

You lucky sod..why not be your own stock exchange?  Buy something you really really like, that's not made anymore..like land or that old dream ferrari..Fiat currency is made every day by the lorry load.

[David Walden]

17 hours ago, talahtnut said:

You lucky sod..why not be your own stock exchange?  Buy something you really really like, that's not made anymore..like land or that old dream ferrari..Fiat currency is made every day by the lorry load.

That a good idea.  Why didn't I think of that?  When I get all those succors lined to invest in                                            "Dave's Stock Exchange",  and when things go belly up with my wonderful advice I'll just say "sorry but I lied" (just like the rest of the gamblers) and off to  Bullamakanka (a mythical place somewhere on earth).  With the money of course. 

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, David Walden said:

"Dave's Stock Exchange", 

Is Beer up or down today?

I've got 50ฺ฿ to invest on beer going down.

[spidermike007]

This article was written 16 months ago. See how wrong these experts can be? Amazing. The US economy is not doing nearly as well as the government would like us to believe. On a macro level it seems to be faring well. But, unless you are in the top 5-10% of the economic food chain, you are not seeing much of anything within the US. And consumer confidence is incredibly low there. 

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This article was written 16 months ago. See how wrong these experts can be? Amazing. The US economy is not doing nearly as well as the government would like us to believe. On a macro level it seems to be faring well. But, unless you are in the top 5-10% of the economic food chain, you are not seeing much of anything within the US. And consumer confidence is incredibly low there. 

When I hear the word 'Expert' I know what follows is either stupid or a lie.

And when I hear the word 'Economist' coupled with 'Expert' I know it means debt.

World governments seem to be catching on fast to the art of defrauding its electorates.   It can only get worse.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

When I hear the word 'Expert' I know what follows is either stupid or a lie.

And when I hear the word 'Economist' coupled with 'Expert' I know it means debt.

World governments seem to be catching on fast to the art of defrauding its electorates.   It can only get worse.

Better to hang out on the Conspiracy Theory loony websites where the economically illiterate can have their ignorance placed on a pedestal.

[Banana7]

Bank of Thailand expects the baht to continue to appreciate against USD until April 2018. Forecast is USD=31.70 to 31.75 baht this week. Currently USD=31.94 baht at 06:35 New York time 15 January 2018.

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Banana7

[talahtnut]

20 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Better to hang out on the Conspiracy Theory loony websites where the economically illiterate can have their ignorance placed on a pedestal.

Some people can not see what  is going on around them, blinkered by government deception.  Can any sane person believe that the government is truthful?

Who was it that said, 'Lies, damned lies and statistics'....?

As for the UK economy, it needs to be put on your 'pedestal' of unsustainability.

Personal insults reveal character shortcomings of the person issuing them.

[Banana7]

On 1/15/2018 at 6:22 PM, Banana7 said:

Bank of Thailand expects the baht to continue to appreciate against USD until April 2018. Forecast is USD=31.70 to 31.75 baht this week. Currently USD=31.94 baht at 06:35 New York time 15 January 2018.

 

Bank of Thailand (BOT) has no plans to intervene on USD THB exchange rate. USD down to 31.60 THB at 17:00 24JAN2018 in BKK at major exchange houses, lower at all major banks.

 

BOT forecasts THB will continue to strengthen against USD until April 2018.

 

What's your forecast for USD to THB by end of April 2018? Maybe 30B, 28B?

 

 

 

 

[jerry921]

I'm no expert, I'm an armchair home-gamer economist. And I've got two hands.

 

US is raising interest rates and letting some of the bonds from quantitative easing roll off the fed's balance sheet, which adds to the supply of bonds for everyone else to buy. That should also put extremely slight upward pressure on interest rates - very slight because so little is rolling off so far.

 

All of this should cause the dollar to strengthen, but in the last week or two the dollar has weakened against a basket of currencies. Partly they've cited talk of trade wars.

 

Last December the new Trump tax law was cited as causing a lot of US companies with foreign cash to move that cash back to the US. That would make the dollar strengthen too, so maybe there is now some rebound action downward as a result of that temporary strength disappearing.

 

I'm thinking it's all just a short-term head fake, and the dollar will start higher soon, once higher rates start to bite.

 

Unless Thailand raises rates along with the dollar, the Baht should weaken into the summer once the dollar-head-fake reverses.

 

 

[EricTh]

The Baht has strengthened to 31.30 today. So much for these forecast.

 

It might go up to 29.xx soon not seen since 2013 .

 

What is causing the Baht to strengthen.

Edited March 11, 2018 by EricTh

[talahtnut]

17 hours ago, EricTh said:

The Baht has strengthened to 31.30 today. So much for these forecast.

 

It might go up to 29.xx soon not seen since 2013 .

 

What is causing the Baht to strengthen.

Its more like western currencies weakening.

 

[Banana7]

On 1/7/2018 at 7:59 AM, David Walden said:

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb-technical

USD is still a "strong sell" against Thai Baht. THB will continue to appreciate against USD for at least the next month. If you are holding USD and want THB within the next year, best to sell USD now.

 

THB hasn't gained against the EURO in the past year, so not all western currencies are weakening against THB.

 

[talahtnut]

16 hours ago, Banana7 said:

USD is still a "strong sell" against Thai Baht. THB will continue to appreciate against USD for at least the next month. If you are holding USD and want THB within the next year, best to sell USD now.

 

THB hasn't gained against the EURO in the past year, so not all western currencies are weakening against THB.

 

Buy gold, value is constant throughout history.

[Naam]

34 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Buy gold, value is constant throughout history.

[talahtnut]

30 minutes ago, Naam said:

Whats wrong with that?  its money that doesn't change in value.

[Srikcir]

7 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Whats wrong with that?  its money that doesn't change in value.

Very volatile over time.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

 

[Srikcir]

1 minute ago, Srikcir said:

Very volatile over time.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

 

Baht vs gold

https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/thb

 

[talahtnut]

28 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Baht vs gold

https://www.goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/thb

 

Gold has not changed in value for thousands of years..the value of currencies is the

volatile element. 

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

Gold has not changed in value for thousands of years..the value of currencies is the

volatile element. 

So, if the price of gold in dollars loses 30%, the one ounce of gold is still one ounce of gold, right?

[talahtnut]

32 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

So, if the price of gold in dollars loses 30%, the one ounce of gold is still one ounce of gold, right?

Its worth its weight in gold mate. In dodgy times its merely a haven for your dosh.

Personally, I'm always having dodgy times, but I can only afford a beer.

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

Its worth its weight in gold mate. In dodgy times its merely a haven for your dosh.

Personally, I'm always having dodgy times, but I can only afford a beer.

A glass of the golden nectar.

[talahtnut]

32 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

A glass of the golden nectar.

That's very kind offer..I'll have two please.

[Naam]

10 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Gold has not changed in value for thousands of years..the value of currencies is the

volatile element. 

keep on dreaming.

[talahtnut]

2 hours ago, Naam said:

keep on dreaming.

Mocking precedes learning.  Get some sleep..don't worry about it..

[Berkshire]

On 1/29/2018 at 1:57 PM, jerry921 said:

I'm no expert, I'm an armchair home-gamer economist. And I've got two hands.

 

US is raising interest rates and letting some of the bonds from quantitative easing roll off the fed's balance sheet, which adds to the supply of bonds for everyone else to buy. That should also put extremely slight upward pressure on interest rates - very slight because so little is rolling off so far.

 

All of this should cause the dollar to strengthen, but in the last week or two the dollar has weakened against a basket of currencies. Partly they've cited talk of trade wars.

 

Last December the new Trump tax law was cited as causing a lot of US companies with foreign cash to move that cash back to the US. That would make the dollar strengthen too, so maybe there is now some rebound action downward as a result of that temporary strength disappearing.

 

I'm thinking it's all just a short-term head fake, and the dollar will start higher soon, once higher rates start to bite.

 

Unless Thailand raises rates along with the dollar, the Baht should weaken into the summer once the dollar-head-fake reverses.

 

 

Your prediction is a bit off....at least in the short term.  You forgot to mention that the "new Trump tax law" is drowning the US in debt.  This and the tariffs, looming trade wars, etc., is not going to help the USD.  I think the dollar would get a big bounce if Trump were to get impeached. 

[jerry921]

30 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Your prediction is a bit off....at least in the short term.  You forgot to mention that the "new Trump tax law" is drowning the US in debt.  This and the tariffs, looming trade wars, etc., is not going to help the USD.  I think the dollar would get a big bounce if Trump were to get impeached. 

True, I'm wrong so far. Kudlow was talking the dollar higher today. I don't agree that the new tax law drowns the US in debt. That analysis requires first of all that the US wasn't already drowning in debt, and second of all that the Trump law adds enough to the debt over what was already there to push the country below water. I don't buy that. We may eventually drown, but this wasn't the tipping point increment. So far, in the short term, the Trump Tax law has increased tax revenues, which I read set an all time high for January (or perhaps it was December).

 

Since I wrote the post you quoted, though, I have come to the conclusion that the Fed probably won't be able to raise rates 4 times this year. That slower pace may mean that dollar weakness continues far longer than I expected, but I still don't think it's going to be getting a lot worse from here.