Thoughts on Koh Samui, tourism, and the future

[Tropicalevo]

On 6/23/2019 at 4:17 PM, Tropicalevo said:

Jan   136      peak season

Feb   141      Chinese New Year

Mar   123

Apr   133      Songkhran

May   110      Mid season

Jun   126      College kids

July   79      booked so far

Unless we have any walk-ins today, the final number for June is 135.

 

I have no idea why we are just as busy in June as we were in January.

[huberthammer]

52 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

I have no idea why we are just as busy in June as we were in January.

It seems that a lot of western people are a lot more frugal than before the financial crisis and decisions on a holiday are no longer necessarily made on what is the preferred destination and the preferred time of the year. More often than not people now look at value for money and with Samui being one of the destinations with a huge difference between low and high season pricing this certainly will impact some of the tourist flow.

 

Many of my friends who live in SEA and come to Samui for a short-stay vacation seem to go through exactly this decision making. While during high season many of them look up Samui for a long weekend they are quickly put off by the flight price and the hotel pricing during that time. Would be interested to hear from you if you see a difference between average number of nights stay in January compared to June.

 

 

[Tropicalevo]

23 hours ago, huberthammer said:

Many of my friends who live in SEA and come to Samui for a short-stay vacation seem to go through exactly this decision making. While during high season many of them look up Samui for a long weekend they are quickly put off by the flight price and the hotel pricing during that time. Would be interested to hear from you if you see a difference between average number of nights stay in January compared to June.

 

 

What you say makes sense, but because of the way that my resourcing diary works, that is difficult for me to be quantitative.

I do not own the villas so the number of nights booked does not impact my resources. It is the number of check ins and check outs that I have to plan for.

My gut 'feel' is that both months are similar in the bookings. What I am seeing though is this 'last minute best deal' mentality. My last post was at 07.25 am yesterday and we then had 2 more 'instant' bookings, both after 16.00, bringing the total number for the month to 137 check ins/outs. !3 check ins on the last 3 days.

One notable difference this year - more guests from the USA. European numbers still down.

 

4 bookings this month are by Russians and are for one month or longer. (This is very rare in January.) There are 3 bookings for more than one week and the rest are all less than one week. This would be similar to January. Many guests are on the 'Thailand in 10 days' bracket. Bangkok/Samui/Phuket/Krabi or Bangkok/Samui Chiang Mai

Edited July 1, 2019 by Tropicalevo

[khunPer]

5 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

4 bookings this month are by Russians and are for one month or longer. (This is very rare in January.) There are 3 bookings for more than one week and the rest are all less than one week. This would be similar to January. Many guests are on the 'Thailand in 10 days' bracket. Bangkok/Samui/Phuket/Krabi or Bangkok/Samui Chiang Mai

Yes, number of nights on Samui might not indicate number of nights in Thailand, numerous people seem to visit more than one place. And even Samui might be the main destination, they could also spend "one night in Bangkok" or more...????

[cyril sneer]

I've been going every 1-2 years the past decade and won't be returning again

 

As mentioned earlier, it's too much hassle to get to unless you want to get ripped off flying there.

 

But the main reason I won't be returning is that the last visit was depressing: -

• Lack of tourists
• For rent/for sale signs everywhere
• Closed businesses in the busiest areas of Chaweng
• Beaches dead at night in Lamai (normally has some form of entertainment or music)
• Lady bars 80% empty

Time to move onto other places, it's lost the magic it once had (for me personally)

[notmyself]

On 6/20/2019 at 11:21 AM, khunPer said:

Every year they used to visit their bar-owner friends, and order a half-bottle Sangsom & Coke, and enjoy an evening talking with other bar guests, but I think its past now. Many of the former beer bars have vanished, because so has their customers, even outnumbering the vanished number of beer bar, leaving the remaining beer bars half empty, apart from a few selected that remain busy.

 

Lost its charm... dropped its bundle... the adventure is gone... the dream is gone. If I had business here I would worry but I don't, so love the place.

 

 

 

 

[GalaxyMan]

4 hours ago, notmyself said:

If I had business here I would worry but I don't, so love the place.

Interesting how degree of financial security/insecurity plays such a big part in the perception of how things are.

[wilcopops]

Samui's current problems are largely in common with the rest of the kingdom but are exacerbated by 2 factors which inturn are, not unique to the island.

They are product and over capacity.

Samui is destroying the natural resources that initially attracted visitors

And secondly thanks to untrammelled development their is rampant over-capacity in all ranges of accommodation.

 

A third factor that is unique to Samui is the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Airways have on air access to the island ....... quite simply, the price is putting visitors off. ... and there is no way out of this predicament so long as the one man controls it.

 

 

[GalaxyMan]

3 hours ago, wilcopops said:

A third factor that is unique to Samui is the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Airways have on air access to the island ....... quite simply, the price is putting visitors off. ... and there is no way out of this predicament so long as the one man controls it.

 

 

I think this is the biggest obstacle to increased tourism to Samui. Because of the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Air has on any and all travel to and from Samui, there just aren't any direct international flights except to KL and Singapore. None to China, none to India, which has 12 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Bangkok and 10 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Phuket.

[Tropicalevo]

1 hour ago, GalaxyMan said:

None to China, none to India, which has 12 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Bangkok and 10 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Phuket.

Not quite true.

 

Tibet Airlines, Chengdu Airlines, and Lucky Airlines all have direct flights from China to Samui.

 

Bandit Airways and Hong Kong Airlines also fly direct from Hong Kong.

 

You are still correct with your comment ' Because of the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Air has on any and all travel to and from Samui, '

Edited July 9, 2019 by Tropicalevo

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, wilcopops said:

A third factor that is unique to Samui is the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Airways have on air access to the island ....... quite simply, the price is putting visitors off. ... and there is no way out of this predicament so long as the one man controls it.

So many has been complaining about Samui is spoiled by too many tourists compared to the capacity of the island's infrastructure. We shall be happy that Bangkok Airways havn't made Samui a budget destination; and if one wish a cheap trip, one can fly to the mainland on budget fare, including transfer to the island.

 

Looking at statistics Samui's tourism increased during the years were Thailand's number of incoming tourists were decreasing, so Bangkok Airways might not be a tourist stopper.

 

And what would Samui have been, if not a small airline took a huge risk back in 1987, and build a landing strip in the valley between Plai Laem and Bo Phut?

 

But agree with in overcapacity, like increasing the number of available accommodation compared to the little lower increase in number of tourists – so far – by simple math it shall result in a lower booking rate. Op top bungalowss, and resorts, and hotels, which has not upgraded, or changed their business plan, to the actual demand, suffers from not enough guests; whilst others – like pool villa style, alone or inside a resort – benefit from the present demand.

 

I also agree in planning, or rather lack of same. Without a development in infrastructure, you cannot continuously increase the number of visitors; some might even be not returning guests, due to bad infrastructure experience.

 

Samui is pretty much like Klondyke, when there are rumors about gold, everybody wish to be part of the adventure, and become rich. However, opening just another bar, or bodega, or small bungalow resort, or restaurant, or investing in more taxis, won't make you rich, if the gold – i.e. tourists – is not there...????

[Tropicalevo]

Just a quick update on the trends for guests at the north end of Samui.

 

Two weeks ago I reported that I had 79 confirmed movements for July. That number is now 125. I expect the the numbers to slow down as the villas are mostly full.

 

The trend for the visitors up here is mostly for last minute bookings and short stays (2-5 days). Still lots of Chinese but recently they are outnumbered by Indians. A surprising increase in guests from the USA so far this year. Numbers from the USA in previous years have been consistently low or non-existent.

 

I am seeing an increase in the number of Chinese agents and investors this year. The last few land sales were all to Chinese.

 

Maybe time to learn Mandarin ????

[wilcopops]

8 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

I think this is the biggest obstacle to increased tourism to Samui. Because of the monopoly stranglehold that Bangkok Air has on any and all travel to and from Samui, there just aren't any direct international flights except to KL and Singapore. None to China, none to India, which has 12 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Bangkok and 10 cities with direct flights by various airlines to Phuket.

Just going for "uncreased' tourism may not be the answer as islands are by nature limited in capacity.     at present they have over-capacity. However some of the 4 and 5 star hoteliers believe that these high air fares have kept the hhoi polloi off the island.....this however could backfire especially as both China and the West are less free with their spending money at the moment.

 

the tourist industry is now looking to India to fill the gaps left by the wealth yy Chinese....this may take a decade to happen though.

Edited July 9, 2019 by wilcopops

[wisperone]

On 6/20/2019 at 12:40 AM, Samui Bodoh said:

Oh darn!

 

We will really, really, really, really miss you. Honest. 

 

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

 

Bye Bye!

 

And...

 

Good riddance.

For anyone who may have been contemplating visiting Samui and spending their hard earned money, your nasty comment may have changed their mind.

[GalaxyMan]

10 hours ago, wisperone said:

For anyone who may have been contemplating visiting Samui and spending their hard earned money, your nasty comment may have changed their mind.

And I'm sure the local people trying to make a living running a business don't appreciate such an attitude, either. We all hate the tourist hoards, but they're the necessary evil to make life possible for the rest of us, especially the Thai people.

[Ron jeremy]

Thai greed has <deleted> the island, build build with no nfrastructure, I can't believe how dirty the water is there, free flow rivers into the ocean, what a sesspool. I was there for New Years, a week later the place was deserted, major hassle getting there and back.

never again.

[Airbagwill]

On 6/30/2019 at 8:26 AM, huberthammer said:

before the financial crisis 

Which financial crisis are you refering to?

[notmyself]

On 7/26/2019 at 3:31 PM, Ron jeremy said:

Thai greed has <deleted> the island, build build with no nfrastructure, I can't believe how dirty the water is there, free flow rivers into the ocean, what a sesspool. I was there for New Years, a week later the place was deserted, major hassle getting there and back.

never again.

 

Much of it is greed but you find that most places around the world while at the same time much of it is down to incompetence which is often due to an education system that puts little emphasis on inquisitiveness. It's all very well doing this... have at it horse.... but there needs to be at least a small number of people who consider future possible events based on data or research.

 

Russians left after the Ruble tanked post Crimea and the Chinese have buggered off to Cambodia so the kingdom is working on the Indian market. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Airbagwill]

I think many on Thaivisa see tourism from a very western perspective.

They tend to see things as an aberration from a perceived norm...that is of a holiday destination for westerners.  They are misjudging the situation.

The Chinese market is here to stay it may go up and down but no other sector has bourgeoned like theirs.

India is another market that will be tapped too.

The problem fir westerners is that the product these markets are after is considerably different from the western model.

It also may be much less environmentally friendly.

However the Thai tourist industry is noted for being unregulated and poor on infrastructure and customer service.....but this could be fine for new customers.

[Airbagwill]

I think this article blows out of the water a lot of the occido-centric perceptions held by many westernrs living in or visiting Thailand...

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/opinion/why-the-chinese-are-infinitely-more-important-than-western-tourists-to-thailand?fbclid=IwAR2FqjtBTXq6xLDbzgXyxoa6NPgQ1oW54FsHaCxb5Rnbu-pYvxix2LnaOfw

Edited August 17, 2019 by Airbagwill

[GalaxyMan]

The numbers don't lie, it's the liars making up numbers who are the problem (TAT).

[Airbagwill]

31 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

The numbers don't lie, it's the liars making up numbers who are the problem (TAT).

I don't understand what you are trying to imply.

These figures are compiled by or on behalf of ATTA.

http://www.atta.or.th/?p=4019

 

Are you saying they are deliberately skewed or inaccurate to support some ulterior motive?

If so what motive is that?

Edited August 17, 2019 by Airbagwill

[thasoss]

On 7/28/2019 at 7:13 AM, Airbagwill said:

Which financial crisis are you refering to?

would imagine 2008..................or 1929?.....................doing well if the latter.

[thasoss]

6 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

I don't understand what you are trying to imply.

These figures are compiled by or on behalf of ATTA.

http://www.atta.or.th/?p=4019

 

Are you saying they are deliberately skewed or inaccurate to support some ulterior motive?

If so what motive is that?

TAT think of a number and double it....empty streets dont lie.

[Airbagwill]

1 hour ago, thasoss said:

TAT think of a number and double it....empty streets dont lie.

Duh...they are not TAT  figures!

[thasoss]

34 minutes ago, Airbagwill said:

Duh...they are not TAT  figures!

I realise that,but where are these 58.4% chinese that come to thailand?...can only assume they stay inside their resorts and never come out to play

[Airbagwill]

16 minutes ago, thasoss said:

I realise that,but where are these 58.4% chinese that come to thailand?...can only assume they stay inside their resorts and never come out to play

It would seem you are relying on personal observation to form an opinion which anyone should know is the worst possible way of looking at a topic like this.

Furthermore it isn't clear what you are trying to say. Are you suggesting that the future lies in western tourism...if so how do you see this?

Just because you cant see it...whatever that is..you haven't actually defined it.... doesn't mean it's not there.

[Tropicalevo]

Well, here at the pointy end we are still flat out.

 

190 ins and outs booked for this month. Probably not going to get many new bookings as most of the villas are full. Lots of Chinese still (about 40%) and quit a few Indians. We always get the gaps filled over full moon party time so 100% occupied. Guests are just leaving now.

 

Went to Maenam last Sunday to watch the rugby with a friend. Lots of traffic Sunday evening about 19.30.

People walking along the streets in Bangrak and Bophut (ring road). The place looked busy with people looking for food/drink.

 

Local people that I use for car hire are struggling to find large cars for guests for the big groups and yes - they mostly stay in the villas. Boxes of empty beer bottles and wine/spirit bottles in the trash cans.

 

Restaurants that I recommend to guests are doing well in Choengmon/Bangrak.

[Airbagwill]

3 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

Well, here at the pointy end we are still flat out.

 

190 ins and outs booked for this month. Probably not going to get many new bookings as most of the villas are full. Lots of Chinese still (about 40%) and quit a few Indians. We always get the gaps filled over full moon party time so 100% occupied. Guests are just leaving now.

 

Went to Maenam last Sunday to watch the rugby with a friend. Lots of traffic Sunday evening about 19.30.

People walking along the streets in Bangrak and Bophut (ring road). The place looked busy with people looking for food/drink.

 

Local people that I use for car hire are struggling to find large cars for guests for the big groups and yes - they mostly stay in the villas. Boxes of empty beer bottles and wine/spirit bottles in the trash cans.

 

Restaurants that I recommend to guests are doing well in Choengmon/Bangrak.

Trouble with being at the "pointy end" is you can't see the rest of the ship.

 

A lot of the "western" hoteliers problems is they don't understand the demographics or the product required. Chinese tourists will buy similar but also have different requirements.

How many of your staff for instance speak Chinese? Around the island it is quite low - their are measures to improve this.

Many of th 4 and 5 star hotels are spending a lot of time working out how to adjust their product to suit the new Chinese clientele. It is also true that many westerners form an incorrect opinion about Chinese numbers because they "don't see them" - one reason for this is that Chinese visitors often don't go to the same places or use the same facilities that have been offered to westerners for 2 decades or more. Even their calendar is different.

[khunPer]

8 hours ago, Airbagwill said:

I think this article blows out of the water a lot of the occido-centric perceptions held by many westernrs living in or visiting Thailand...

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/opinion/why-the-chinese-are-infinitely-more-important-than-western-tourists-to-thailand?fbclid=IwAR2FqjtBTXq6xLDbzgXyxoa6NPgQ1oW54FsHaCxb5Rnbu-pYvxix2LnaOfw

These figurs are Thailand in total, respective areas can have a different mix.

 

Surat Thani – which includes Koh Samui, Koh Phangan, and Koh Tao – has only 15% Chinese, whilst Germans and Brits are both 10% each (2018 stats).

 

As European tourists are declining – for probably several reasons, including currency exchange rate – the declining number of European may feel different, or worse, at Samui, and sister islands, mainly in business aimed at European tourists, or returning Europeans.

 

Surat Thani is #7 on the map, #3 is Phuket, and #5 is Krabi...