Will the devalue of the Yuan effect The THB and tourism?

[highonthai]

Will the devalue of the Yuan effect The THB and tourism?

Any thoughts?

[davehowden]

Less yuan per THB ?

untitled.bmp

[RichardColeman]

7 hours ago, highonthai said:

Will the devalue of the Yuan effect The THB and tourism?

Any thoughts?

Yes, more Chinese will die on the Thai roads and at sea.

[sunnyboy2018]

2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Yes, more Chinese will die on the Thai roads and at sea.

I senses a Thai hater in the above comment always finding an ecuse to criticize Thailand. If the only take they get on Thailand is Health and Saftey statistics taken out of context they have failed here. But anyway Chinese tourists who have died here is a drop in the ocean compared to the 30 million Chinese killed by Mao and The Chinese communist party. 

[BestB]

Of course it will and heavily. Regarding tourism that would mean

less tourists as holidaying in Thailand would be more expansive . Also buying from China would be cheaper, so will affect Thai export industry 

[canuckamuck]

52 minutes ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

I senses a Thai hater in the above comment always finding an ecuse to criticize Thailand. If the only take they get on Thailand is Health and Saftey statistics taken out of context they have failed here. But anyway Chinese tourists who have died here is a drop in the ocean compared to the 30 million Chinese killed by Mao and The Chinese communist party. 

That's the slogan they use in China at the travel agency. Thailand, safer than the Cultural Revolution.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Of course it will. The strong baht is already impacting Chinese tourism. In June 2018 one Yuan would get you about 5 baht, today only 4.37, so about 12% difference. If the Yuan is devalued that would make the baht even more expensive compared to it and make Thailand an unattractive destination for Chinese tourists if for financial reasons alone.

 

As for exports- anywhere where Thailand competes with China Thailand will lose as Chinese exports become cheaper and Thailand exports become more expensive. And of course exports TO China will come to a halt because they'll be significantly more expensive in China than they were in the past.

 

Thailand should be doing the same - devalue the currency to support tourism and exports - but for whatever misguided interests they are not doing that (yet). Eventually they will have to.

Edited August 5, 2019 by PingRoundTheWorld

[NCC1701A]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-risks-economic-self-harm-by-weaponizing-the-yuan-11564983069

 

Beijing Risks Economic Self-Harm by Weaponizing the Yuan

[ExpatOilWorker]

2 hours ago, davehowden said:

Less yuan per THB ?

untitled.bmp 2.17 MB · 4 downloads

More like less THB per Yuan.

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Of course it will. The strong baht is already impacting Chinese tourism. In June 2018 one Yuan would get you about 5 baht, today only 4.37, so about 12% difference. If the Yuan is devalued that would make the baht even more expensive compared to it and make Thailand an unattractive destination for Chinese tourists if for financial reasons alone.

 

As for exports- anywhere where Thailand competes with China Thailand will lose as Chinese exports become cheaper and Thailand exports become more expensive. And of course exports TO China will come to a halt because they'll be significantly more expensive in China than they were in the past.

 

Thailand should be doing the same - devalue the currency to support tourism and exports - but for whatever misguided interests they are not doing that (yet). Eventually they will have to.

Thailand is quite rightly fearful of being put on the world bully's list of currency manipulators.

[highonthai]

I'm just wondering if the CNY being low will hurt the Thai export market and thus the Thai government will be forced to do something regarding the strength of the Baht.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

3 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Thailand is quite rightly fearful of being put on the world bully's list of currency manipulators.

Yes, except the reason the baht is artificially strong is that it's being manipulated the other way. All the have to do is shut that down and it'll sort itself out.

[PingRoundTheWorld]

3 minutes ago, highonthai said:

I'm just wondering if the CNY being low will hurt the Thai export market and thus the Thai government will be forced to do something regarding the strength of the Baht.

Yes- it will definitely hurt the Thai export market. As for the government doing something about it.... don't know.

[cmsally]

If Thailand has become a safe haven for large amounts of Chinese Yuan through investment and holding cash, then don't expect the Thai Baht to weaken.

[sfokevin]

This may give Thailand cover to devalue its own currency... Up until now they have allowed the Baht appreciate I think mainly because if they intervened and tried tamp it down the US would sanction them... Now they can tell the US they are just protecting themselves from China...

[Sanjay Jaybhay]

Its also possible that since Thailand is a cheap tourist destination it can benefit from the RMB devaluation. Chinese might come to Thailand instead of going to Europe or USA since its much cheaper and affordable even after a devaluated RMB. Plus cheaper RMB means more exports for China and more money for the Chinese. This could be a good sign also. 

[orang37]

Many Thai children will have to do without cheap toys: this will increase stress in families which will lead to more road-rage which will lead to more traffic fatalities.

 

~o:37;

[stillhereandlovinit]

4 hours ago, highonthai said:

 thus the Thai government will be forced to do something regarding the strength of the Baht.

Lets hope not, these exchange rates are brilliant at the moment.

[tlandtday]

2 hours ago, sfokevin said:

This may give Thailand cover to devalue its own currency... Up until now they have allowed the Baht appreciate I think mainly because if they intervened and tried tamp it down the US would sanction them... Now they can tell the US they are just protecting themselves from China...

the us would not care if thailand devalues in fact thailand has long done he opposite and manipulated its currency upwards at great expense to the thai people but very nice for the uber wealthy chinese 

[tlandtday]

2 hours ago, Sanjay Jaybhay said:

Its also possible that since Thailand is a cheap tourist destination it can benefit from the RMB devaluation. Chinese might come to Thailand instead of going to Europe or USA since its much cheaper and affordable even after a devaluated RMB. Plus cheaper RMB means more exports for China and more money for the Chinese. This could be a good sign also. 

wishful thinking most will simply stay home

[sfokevin]

1 hour ago, tlandtday said:

the us would not care if thailand devalues in fact thailand has long done he opposite and manipulated its currency upwards at great expense to the thai people but very nice for the uber wealthy chinese 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1686148/thailand-sidesteps-us-watch-list

[Berkshire]

4 hours ago, sfokevin said:

This may give Thailand cover to devalue its own currency... Up until now they have allowed the Baht appreciate I think mainly because if they intervened and tried tamp it down the US would sanction them... Now they can tell the US they are just protecting themselves from China...

Agree.  Countries that manipulate their currency (e.g., China) almost always weakens them to help their export sector.  Thailand should do the same and pronto. 

[hansnl]

9 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

I senses a Thai hater in the above comment always finding an ecuse to criticize Thailand. If the only take they get on Thailand is Health and Saftey statistics taken out of context they have failed here. But anyway Chinese tourists who have died here is a drop in the ocean compared to the 30 million Chinese killed by Mao and The Chinese communist party. 

Wasn't that some time ago, in China itself?

The road accidents in Thailand, I guess they are in Thailand.

Any idea about traffic in China?

YouTube is a good source
To view the Chinese traffic.

[hansnl]

35 minutes ago, sfokevin said:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1686148/thailand-sidesteps-us-watch-list

Right!

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, tlandtday said:

thailand has long done he opposite and manipulated its currency upwards at great expense to the thai people but very nice for the uber wealthy chinese 

Why and how? 

 

The only way to push a currency up artificially (manipulation) is for the central bank to burn through the country's reserves of foreign currencies... which doesn't happen to be the case with Thailand. 

 

Pushing a currency up is very costly, which is why the countries that try to do it when their currency is under attack, quickly give up. 

 

Then there is the why. 

 

Thinking that a small group of billionaires can order the central bank to push the baht up, so that they can buy homes abroad on the cheap, is simplistic. 

 

People who have billions don't care if they are going to save 10% on a house... these same people who, by the way, do not hesitate to buy 100 million baht imported cars, hammered with 300% duty. 

 

The reason the baht is strong is because it is NOT manipulated down, like most other main currencies... no need to look further... 

 

[IAMHERE]

Chinese that have been buying condos in Thailand just won. (or lost) ????

[geisha]

I have a lot to do with imported goods/food from Asia to Europe. The market has been flooded with Chinese goods for the past year or two, whereas before we had many more Thai products . Also, now Europe is seeing massive imports of Cambodian rice , and the Thai AAA rice is rare and 35% more expensive ! 

[Joe Mcseismic]

12 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Why and how? 

 

The only way to push a currency up artificially (manipulation) is for the central bank to burn through the country's reserves of foreign currencies... which doesn't happen to be the case with Thailand. 

You sure about that? From what I have read, one of the contributing factors of the Baht's strength is huge foreign currency reserves.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Strong-Thai-baht-stirs-worries-for-exports

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/29/foreign-inflows-drive-thai-baht-to-top-emerging-currency

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1631358/correction-possible-as-baht-gains

[highonthai]

Looks like Toyota and Mitsubishi are concerned about the baht.

Both company's auto exports of Thai assembled cars are down.

We might just see a change sooner than later.

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, Joe Mcseismic said:

You sure about that? From what I have read, one of the contributing factors of the Baht's strength is huge foreign currency reserves.

 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Strong-Thai-baht-stirs-worries-for-exports

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/05/29/foreign-inflows-drive-thai-baht-to-top-emerging-currency

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1631358/correction-possible-as-baht-gains

Exactly! 

 

It confirms that Thailand is not burning through its currency reserves to push the baht higher, but that the baht is strong for fundamental reasons which have nothing to do with manipulation.