Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?

[yogi100]

On 8/13/2019 at 5:09 PM, RoadWarrior371 said:

The one constant is change, deal with it.

 

We don't need more doomsday experts, we already have enough of those boobs on the forum.

 

If you don't like change, live up to your name, and leave.

 

????

 

 

 

How do you expect anyone to 'deal with it'! That's a rather gormless remark.

 

None of us are in a position to deal with anything to do with the Thai government's attitude to falang visitors, visa regulations, the exchange rate nor anything else.

[yogi100]

On 8/16/2019 at 10:20 AM, dotpoom said:

I care as much about my favourite restaurant's well being....as they do about mine.

We're mainly just ships that pass in the night and fewer of us are making that voyage any more. 

[yogi100]

On 8/16/2019 at 11:57 AM, petermik said:

it,s called "thainess"...........

Look at any British high street even in parts of London!

[yogi100]

On 8/21/2019 at 5:48 AM, Leaver said:

Due to the hoards of Chinese tourists coming here now, the demand for accommodation has increased, while there has been no corresponding demand for alcohol and sex from this demographic.

 

Not that I care too much for them, but all those tin roof, single story, beer bars, are now just a waste of land.  Many will make way for hotels in the future. 

 

The Thai landlords have no concept of what a business can sustain, so the property can remain rented, and the tenant run a successful business.  If the restaurant was capable of seating, for example, 20 people, the Thai landlords charge rent on 20 people, constantly seated, buying food, every day, the whole time the restaurant is open, which is simply unrealistic.  

 

As some of our favorite places close, we will adjust and move to other places.  This will see the businesses able to survive, get busier.  Then, the Thai landlord raises the rent on those surviving businesses, and they will pass that cost onto us, the customers, because the few places left that survived will know there few options left for farang customers to go to.  

And as bars close and the rents on the surviving ones go up those cost increases will be passed on to us.

 

Eventually the bars will continue to decrease in number or vanish all together and so will the falang customers. It's already happening.

[yogi100]

On 9/6/2019 at 4:18 PM, CGW said:

I actually agree with you - in a roundabout way ????

It amazes me how strong the economy is & how strong their "balance of payments" is, they have had a long run of "luck" maybe this time their luck will finally run out? They do have plenty of money in the bank though to see them through any hard times.

Thailand does no have to carry the burden of the welfare payouts we in the West are saddled with. That money is immense and a massive drain on our economies.

 

The billions we dole out in benefits could otherwise be spent on manufacturing goods for export and domestic consumption. We have container ships from China unloading in our ports every day. And to a smaller degree ships from Thailand as well.

 

We think of Thai tourism but overlook to their exportation of vehicles, seafood, poultry, rubber and rice etc.

[yogi100]

On 9/19/2019 at 8:22 AM, jacko45k said:

And yet, last night, a midweek evening, it was packed in Walking St, quite a few GGBs difficult to find seats.

 

Cafe Racer is dependent on Australian customers so very specific. 

Quite a few of my English pals went in the Cafe Racer. It apparently closed for a while because of a fallout between its owners/partners.

[yogi100]

On 9/20/2019 at 3:41 PM, Leaver said:

Ok, so, one of your favorite bars is struggling.  Read the heading of the thread again.  "Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?" 

 

Whilst I am happy to discuss the various reasons for why, or why not, some will survive, whilst others will close, your post tends to indicate that indeed, one of your favorite bars may not be open 6 to 12 months from now.  Do you think it will survive, or close?

 

I understand there is a large expat customer base here.  Do you think the next generation of retired expat will be as large, given the majority of tourists to Thailand now are Chinese?  It's holidaying to Thailand that advertises Thailand as a future retirement destination for many. 

 

You make an interesting point about "customers drying up." You mention the big expats customer base, but what about the bars / restaurants that rely on western tourists, with the expat base being a bonus?  What future do you see for these establishments?  

 

No argument from me, Billabong is the busiest in LK Metro, and I agree, the band is great, however, with a 2 for 1 business model, it has to be packed, 7 nights a week, or it runs to a loss, such are the small margins from the 2 for 1 business model.  

 

I understand your point that a bar / restaurant owner can determine how their business goes, but there seems to quite a few circumstances for this coming high season which may see it be no high season at all.  Things like, strong baht, weak western currencies, Brexit, rising local prices (yes, this includes the girls) stronger competition from the likes of Vietnam, visa issues, particularly for snowbirds etc etc.  These are outside of a bar / restaurant owner's control, and all they can do prop up the business with their savings, or close.  They could try to sell, but in this climate, it's a fire sale, or no sale at all.      

 

 

An ex pat pal of mine has lived in the LOS for over 20 years mainly in Pattaya in the same cheap hotel. He's not a big drinker but likes his football which he watches in Katesiree or New Plaza.

 

Like many of us he has concerns about his future finances.

 

I rang him yesterday as he keeps me up to date with things in Pattaya. When he answered he surprised me by telling me he was in Vietnam.

 

He sounded favourably impressed and I suspect he's gone there on a scouting mission to see how the land lies. If he relocates it will be a sign of what's to come as far as many ex pats are concerned.

 

To me he's always been like part of the furniture in our part of South Pattaya near Hellfire Crossing where Soi Bukhaow meets Diana.

[RoadWarrior371]

3 hours ago, yogi100 said:

How do you expect anyone to 'deal with it'! That's a rather gormless remark.

 

None of us are in a position to deal with anything to do with the Thai government's attitude to falang visitors, visa regulations, the exchange rate nor anything else.

The Thai Government's attitude is not in your control dude, so either deal with it or move along.  Either way, grow a pair and stop whining.

[topt]

On 9/20/2019 at 9:41 PM, Leaver said:

however, with a 2 for 1 business model, it has to be packed, 7 nights a week, or it runs to a loss, such are the small margins from the 2 for 1 business model.

Not sure you understand their pricing? 2 for 1 means you pay 120/130 baht say for 2 beers per person - you are not supposed to/able to share between two people. If you only want one you get charged more (I paid 80 baht last night for my last Singha lite). 

Plenty of cheaper bars in New Plaza - witness an earlier picture showing 50 baht beers.

[Ling Kae]

3 hours ago, yogi100 said:

Quite a few of my English pals went in the Cafe Racer. It apparently closed for a while because of a fallout between its owners/partners.

That's all been sorted now and it's back to being packed most nights. 

[Barhop]

51 minutes ago, Ling Kae said:

That's all been sorted now and it's back to being packed most nights. 

Here's the pic I took of Cafe Racer on 17Aug2019 immediately before I walked in and asked for a beer.  Did not take long for people to see beer getting served and tables soon became occupied.

 

That was over a month ago - why are people still talking about Cafe Racer like it is closed???

[SidJames]

I was having an aperitif in LK Metro a few nights ago & it famine or feast down there with some bars full to the rafters & some empty with a few for sale/rent signs up.

As a side note a european looking gent took issue with the door staff at Pulse a go-go throwing barstools around & flexing his pecs.

He had come out of the gogo opposite & the doorman there pulled him away & dragged him back inside.

Very strange carry which seemed even stranger when it was pointed out to me that said gent was one of the partners in the gogo.

Maybe he had been indulging to much in his own stock but in the end there was no harm done.

[Ling Kae]

2 hours ago, Barhop said:

why are people still talking about Cafe Racer like it is closed???

Because it was for about a Month in around July/August. It was a management issue and now it has been sorted.

 

This is a very successful and good bar. At 8 pm most nights it's full. Some people might ask why? It's because the beers are 60 baht and ice cold plus the service girls are very good looking and friendly. You can choose to sit outside in open air or inside with aircon. Has old style music which some people like too. Great place to unwind with or without your friends.

[jastheace]

11 hours ago, yogi100 said:

I still remember eating the 65 baht breakfast while watching the 4am cabaret show put on by Dave and his missus when they rolled up drunk out of their heads. Wasn't her name Linda?

linda yes.  from lopburi if I remember correctly. 4 am cabaret , saw it once. fools and horses on full blast 24/7. I'm pretty sure carzy dave wasn't some famous brit comedian also.

the alleged food poisoning incident was unfortunate bad publicity, having met the complainant, and knowing other places he ate at, he was very wrong.

[yogi100]

8 hours ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

The Thai Government's attitude is not in your control dude, so either deal with it or move along.  Either way, grow a pair and stop whining.

Just carry on eating your insects and bugs up in the boondocks and keep a civil tongue in your head.

[fhickson]

in an ideal situation i would hit a different bar and restaurant every night

 

going to the same place is over rated

 

would i care if any of them closed? no, why would i. have better things to worry about.

[fhickson]

13 hours ago, yogi100 said:

And as bars close and the rents on the surviving ones go up those cost increases will be passed on to us.

 

Eventually the bars will continue to decrease in number or vanish all together and so will the falang customers. It's already happening.

whats the sound of one hand clapping?

[Ling Kae]

On 9/20/2019 at 9:55 AM, Leaver said:

 

Not what I saw a few weeks ago.  Had my own table at Triangle (never happened before) 

As promised I and 3 others went to Triangle last night. Arrived at 8 pm to secure a good table. At this stage it was half full. By 9 pm (when the band starts) all tables were secured. By 10 pm each seat was taken and the bar was full. Couples at this stage had no other option but to share a table.

 

As I was with my partner and we both drink Leo, the buy 1 get 1 free was used at once on each purchase. In other words I bought Leo for myself and my 2nd one went to my partner.

 

What a great night we had. A 6 piece band singing great live music, excellent alert uniformed service girls and generally a nice atmosphere. 

 

This is how a bar should be run. This is why this bar is still going strong after several years. Great music, great service and cheap cold beer. And for the sports fans, several TV's to keep up with your favourite sports. The success of this bar has absolutely nothing to do with the pie getting smaller, they are just smarter than a lot of the others. Low season or high season it will always do well. 

 

[jacko45k]

31 minutes ago, Ling Kae said:

As promised I and 3 others went to Triangle last night.

Glad it worked out for you. I was in there several months back and just up the street a bar/MP place was having a party and their music was being played at ear numbing levels.  When the band in the Triangle tried to start up they too had to boost their volume and customers all went off elsewhere. 

Sometimes it isn't just about how good the bar is. 

[Ling Kae]

That's true, I won't even start drinking in a nearby bar if a Thai party with band is about to start.

[Orac]

Not a big drinker but if I when i am out in town  I would usually have a few at the Queen Vic on Soi Honey with Terry who had been there for 20 years or so - closed last Thursday.

[Leaver]

On 9/21/2019 at 9:06 AM, Ling Kae said:

In this particular case I think it will remain open, there are 2 reasons. Loyalty from previous customers who are not here now but will be during the traditional high season. And the farang partner propping the business now. So I think they will be there in the next 12 Months. Not an ideal situation but when you have a stubborn Thai female partner this is how things end up.

 

About the 2 for 1 beers. I asked a current farang bar owner a simple question.  What is the wholesale price of a small bottle of Leo beer, the answer was 31 baht. The 2 for 1 Leo beer costs 130 baht in these bars. That means they are making more than a 100% profit on each bottle of Leo. But there is also a catch, quite a few people never have that second beer after they have been drinking all night. If 1 in 5 people walk out without taking that second beer the bar keeps it and re sells it, so the profits are much higher than that 100% per bottle.

 

Yes I know they have staff to pay but still they are making profits and these bars do well. I actually do not like the 2 for 1 system but I always make sure I get my second beer.

 

Will the western tourists go elsewhere? Maybe, maybe not. For the last 20 years some expats have been saying the "Pattaya is dying" theme. But Pattaya just keeps on going and people still keep coming. Maybe this time is different,  who knows.

As said, if a business is being propped up by foreign money, that's just basically a donation to a Thai, in one way or another.  It doesn't mean it's a viable business. 

 

There's no guarantee said loyal customers will be back this high season to the bar you mention, for the various reasons previously discussed.  Also, why would said loyal customers put up with obese women and ladyboys.  Will they not change bars, also?

 

Now, the 2 for 1 business model is interesting.   I thought it only fair you pick a mid range beer for your example, like Tiger or Singha.  Not Heineken, but not Leo, either.  In any case, we can discuss Leo, within the 2 for 1 business model.

 

So, based on you figures, 2 x 31 baht is 62 baht, and the cost to the customer is 130 baht.  Around a 100% mark up.   Notice I used the word mark up, not PROFIT. 

 

Firstly, I dispute 1 in 5 will walk out of the bar, leaving their second beer. 

 

Anyway, back to that 68 baht PROFIT.  ???? 

 

You mention the cost of staff, but you did not mention the cost of the main draw card in the bar, the band.  Last I heard, Thai bands were on 200 baht an hour, per band member.  The band at Billabong has 6 members, that's around 6000 baht per night, just for the band. 

 

Now, what about rent.  I would shutter to think the rent on that bar, per month, on top of buying the lease, with key money, and all the other BS.  I would think rent, and initial purchase amount, would take a big cut out of your 68 baht PROFIT for two Leo's.  

 

Electric.  Wow.  The place is going pretty much 24 hours.  Fridges, lights, amps, TV's, fans etc.  It would be a considerable monthly bill, coming out of your 68 baht for two Leo's, PROFIT. 

 

Other staff, not just the huge amount of waitresses, that's cleaners etc.  Just adds to further loss from the 68 baht PROFIT from two Leo's.

 

Internet, water, tax, "tea money" and licensing, as well as repairs and maintenance, all come out of the 68 baht PROFIT for the sale of two Leo's. 

 

These are the basics, then, there is saving for the next lease, rent rises etc.

 

So, Ling, after just the above expenses have been paid, how much out of the 68 baht PROFIT is left, for the sale of two Leo's, in the 2 for 1 business model, in a prime location, such as LK Metro?  Have a guess at just how much real PROFIT is in selling two Leo's in a establishment like Billabong????

 

Can you now see how there pretty much has to be a bum on every seat, constantly drinking, for many hours, every night, or the place runs to a loss?

[Ling Kae]

Thanks Leaver, that's a fair and balanced reply, cheers.

[topt]

5 hours ago, Leaver said:

As said, if a business is being propped up by foreign money, that's just basically a donation to a Thai, in one way or another.  It doesn't mean it's a viable business. 

 

There's no guarantee said loyal customers will be back this high season to the bar you mention, for the various reasons previously discussed.  Also, why would said loyal customers put up with obese women and ladyboys.  Will they not change bars, also?

 

Now, the 2 for 1 business model is interesting.   I thought it only fair you pick a mid range beer for your example, like Tiger or Singha.  Not Heineken, but not Leo, either.  In any case, we can discuss Leo, within the 2 for 1 business model.

 

So, based on you figures, 2 x 31 baht is 62 baht, and the cost to the customer is 130 baht.  Around a 100% mark up.   Notice I used the word mark up, not PROFIT. 

 

Firstly, I dispute 1 in 5 will walk out of the bar, leaving their second beer. 

 

Anyway, back to that 68 baht PROFIT.  ???? 

 

You mention the cost of staff, but you did not mention the cost of the main draw card in the bar, the band.  Last I heard, Thai bands were on 200 baht an hour, per band member.  The band at Billabong has 6 members, that's around 6000 baht per night, just for the band. 

 

Now, what about rent.  I would shutter to think the rent on that bar, per month, on top of buying the lease, with key money, and all the other BS.  I would think rent, and initial purchase amount, would take a big cut out of your 68 baht PROFIT for two Leo's.  

 

Electric.  Wow.  The place is going pretty much 24 hours.  Fridges, lights, amps, TV's, fans etc.  It would be a considerable monthly bill, coming out of your 68 baht for two Leo's, PROFIT. 

 

Other staff, not just the huge amount of waitresses, that's cleaners etc.  Just adds to further loss from the 68 baht PROFIT from two Leo's.

 

Internet, water, tax, "tea money" and licensing, as well as repairs and maintenance, all come out of the 68 baht PROFIT for the sale of two Leo's. 

 

These are the basics, then, there is saving for the next lease, rent rises etc.

 

So, Ling, after just the above expenses have been paid, how much out of the 68 baht PROFIT is left, for the sale of two Leo's, in the 2 for 1 business model, in a prime location, such as LK Metro?  Have a guess at just how much real PROFIT is in selling two Leo's in a establishment like Billabong????

 

Can you now see how there pretty much has to be a bum on every seat, constantly drinking, for many hours, every night, or the place runs to a loss?

For that specific example you seem to forget that they also rent rooms out above.

I also doubt the figure you quote for the band but whatever it is I am not sure why you are trying so hard to convince everybody they are all going to close?

 

As to running at a loss does Billabong have a Thai or Farang owner? Unless it has changed the same "company" also owns Climax. 

 

As the Thai's say "you think too much" 

 

 

 

 

[topt]

On 9/23/2019 at 7:50 AM, Ling Kae said:

The success of this bar has absolutely nothing to do with the pie getting smaller, they are just smarter than a lot of the others. Low season or high season it will always do well. 

Don't disagree but your post reminded me I heard a while ago that supposedly the lease was up and the site had been sold for development and the bar was due to close. Hopefully that has changed.

Anybody else know anything about that?

[SidJames]

9 hours ago, Orac said:

Not a big drinker but if I when i am out in town  I would usually have a few at the Queen Vic on Soi Honey with Terry who had been there for 20 years or so - closed last Thursday.

Is it still closed?

Terry is a lovely fella so I hope all is well with him

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, Ling Kae said:

Thanks Leaver, that's a fair and balanced reply, cheers.

You're welcome, and respect to you for your reply. ????

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, topt said:

For that specific example you seem to forget that they also rent rooms out above.

I also doubt the figure you quote for the band but whatever it is I am not sure why you are trying so hard to convince everybody they are all going to close?

 

As to running at a loss does Billabong have a Thai or Farang owner? Unless it has changed the same "company" also owns Climax. 

 

As the Thai's say "you think too much" 

 

 

 

 

Fair point that they have rooms for rent.  I have checked their website, rooms range from 700 to 900 baht a night.  I am often at Billabong because I like the band.  I've actually never seen any foreigners walking up or down the stairs, to the left of the men's toilet.  I gather that is the stairwell to the rooms.  I see plenty of staff walking up and down the stairs, because I believe they use the toilets up stairs, to free up the toilets in the bar, but never seen any foreigners up and down the stairs, so not sure how popular their rooms are.

 

The figure I use for the Thai band salaries comes from a reliable source, but not from the band at the Billabong themselves.  This information is a little dated, but you are welcome to ask an owner and report back. 

 

Please show me where I have said Billabong will close?  I am merely pointing out that just because a 2 for 1 bar is rammed, it doesn't mean there are big profits being made.  The 2 for 1 business model works on the smaller margins but higher turn over retail theory. 

 

I don't take much advice from the Thai's.  I would rather "think too mut" than not think at all.  ???? 

 

 

[fhickson]

do restaurants care when my bills need to be paid?

[jastheace]

20 hours ago, Orac said:

Not a big drinker but if I when i am out in town  I would usually have a few at the Queen Vic on Soi Honey with Terry who had been there for 20 years or so - closed last Thursday.

@Oracclosed? really? or moved? jeez seems like terry's queen vic was there since the big bang. sign of the times ?