Financial Crisis Beginning in Thailand

[sunnyboy2018]

23 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I used to have alot of wealthy friends, who visited Thailand. None of them (without a single exception) have returned. None. One trip. That was it. Their wives and girlfriends complained too much, that they could not do any luxury shopping. They were unwilling to spend $13,000 on a Prada handbag, they could get for $4,900 in Singapore, Dubai, London, New York, Miami, Milan, Madrid, Hong Kong, or the Seychelles. Plus, they could not get great wine at fair prices, and even if they found a bottle they loved, and were willing to spend three to five times what it cost at home, they could not get any advice on vintages, etc. The service at that higher level is really lacking. 

 

There is a list of 10-20 very good reasons why Thailand cannot attract many well heeled tourists. Some could be corrected. Some are cultural. Some are just due to a fabulously ignorant government. But, the western tourists who do come these days are not the big spenders of yesteryear. And despite the Chinese having one of the highest per capita averages of tourists worldwide, very few of those wealthy Chinese and Indian tourists do not visit Thailand. Thailand simply cannot cater to them, take care of them properly, show them enough deference and respect, and give them the kinds of amenities they are looking for. High end spas are simply not enough. 

I for one am glad that such tourists are not returning. They sound arrogant and entitled. I suspect the Thais dont want them either.

[sunnyboy2018]

9 hours ago, ubonr1971 said:

I thought this thread was going to be an informative one about a financial crisis in T. Instead its some guys opinion based on cheap hotel rooms and empty restaurants

The heart of an economy is multiple small businesses thus hotels and restaurants and all the related auxiliary businesses linked to them are relvant

[sunnyboy2018]

4 hours ago, BestB said:

How can country be in toilet when all you see is brand new or nearly new cars on the roads.?

 

Yes there are fewer tourists and factories are closing down, but most certainly FAR from financial crisis.

 

Thailand's foreign reserves are one of if not the highest in the world, something like 300 BILLION dollars, country has been running budget surplus for years, ie no debt.

 

Almost non existent unemployment rate and ones who are unemployed simply do not want to work, as there is is work everywhere.

 

Compare financial position of your home country and Thailand is light year upfront.

 

Yes, it does not trickle down to the bottom, but most certainly no where near the financial crisis.

 

People making silly comments such as "i was the only customer in hotel"is beyond stupid, as these people have no idea what happens in other rooms, just because you do not see someone in reception, does not mean hotel is empty.

 

Being a hotel owner, i get this type of morons all the time, just because when they come or go they do not see someone it instantly means in their tiny brains they are the only ones.

 

As i type, have a moron, who is claiming he is the only customer, yet we are about 80% full. The reason why he does not see anyone, is because he goes out at 8:00am, all other rooms recovering from the night before and comes back at 19-20pm, all rooms have already gone out.

 

Same applies for same people making stupid comments about being the only customer in the restaurant. Yes at one particular moment in time, they may well be the only customers, it does not mean it was not packed earlier or will not be packed later.

 

 

There is no accurate measure of unemployment in Thailand but certainly the figures would not be accepted as accurate in a western country or any democracy.  In Thailand household debt is overwhelming people. Thailand is NOT years upfront of any of the home countries of posters in this forum. The stultifying effect of the regime, lack of investment in small businesses,  lack of agrarian reform, lack of investment in education and the terrible inequality of income and wealth distribution is border line medieval.  The rule of law is non existent 25 million people had their vote stolen. It is sadly, a sick country.  Poor old Thailand everybody but the ultra wealthy power elite and their military muscle are suffering.

Edited November 16, 2019 by sunnyboy2018

[swissie]

11 hours ago, meechai said:

I would say yes a financial crisis could be in the making for Thailand but,

Not for the obvious reasons of Higher Baht or Lack of tourism.

 

Instead I would point out the irrational exuberance.

For years now they have overbuilt both subdivisions & condos

Next they overbuilt shopping malls. Never asking themselves who will buy

these & with what income? Who will shop these malls & with what income?

 

Instead they rush in & later when stuck holding inventory they offer the same easy type loans they did in the USA back when they also showed the same signs right before their big crisis.

 

Thailand may not have the same recovery options the US had when their mortgage holding citizens start sending in their jungle mail ( house keys forfeited) Or car & credit card holders default.

 

Hopefully I am wrong but it does look similar to US in 2007-2008

 

 

Give the poster above a cigar!

 

Read above post twice and let it melt on your tongue. Such are the harbingers of Crashes.
The Thai R/E sector starts to look like the R/E sector in the US before the meltdown.
The inflated R/E sector in Thailand presents a major factor within the Thai Economy. A "correction" in this segment of the Thai Economy will inevitably have a major effect on the Thai Economy overall.  

But, at the end of the day, even a "crash" in Thailand will not bring back the favourable exchange rates of yesteryear, as the next "crash" will definitely be a global event.

 

[saengd]

1 hour ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

There is no accurate measure of unemployment in Thailand but certainly the figures would not be accepted as accurate in a western country or any democracy.  In Thailand household debt is overwhelming people. Thailand is NOT years upfront of any of the home countries of posters in this forum. The stultifying effect of the regime, lack of investment in small businesses,  lack of agrarian reform, lack of investment in education and the terrible inequality of income and wealth distribution is border line medieval.  The rule of law is non existent 25 million people had their vote stolen. It is sadly, a sick country.  Poor old Thailand everybody but the ultra wealthy power elite and their military muscle are suffering.

Not true. Thailand uses sampling in order to measure unemployment, the same mechanism that the US used to use and still uses to calculate the census.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

I for one am glad that such tourists are not returning. They sound arrogant and entitled. I suspect the Thais dont want them either.

Total nonsense. Of course the Thais want wealthy tourists. There are countless five star resorts in Thailand, that are dependent on wealthy tourists and business people. 

 

Maybe that bizarre presumption, is based on your own personal prejudice and perhaps your hatred of rich people, or your envy of them? Regardless, it could not possibly be further from the truth, and the needs of resort owners, spa owners, luxury shop owners, the airlines, and countless other businesses.

 

These are really cool folks. Not at all prissy. I have several wealthy friends that are really down to earth, generous, and kind. But, as you may not be aware, wealthy people have the ability and the means to be choosy, and to want only the best. In my opinion that does not make them snobs, nor arrogant. They have busy schedules, and when they travel they want all things to go according to plan, and are willing to pay for that. Perhaps a few are a bit entitled. But wealth does entitle you to the best. I get that. And I do not have an issue with that. 

[saengd]

1 hour ago, swissie said:

Give the poster above a cigar!

 

Read above post twice and let it melt on your tongue. Such are the harbingers of Crashes.
The Thai R/E sector starts to look like the R/E sector in the US before the meltdown.
The inflated R/E sector in Thailand presents a major factor within the Thai Economy. A "correction" in this segment of the Thai Economy will inevitably have a major effect on the Thai Economy overall.  

But, at the end of the day, even a "crash" in Thailand will not bring back the favourable exchange rates of yesteryear, as the next "crash" will definitely be a global event.

 

I agree that poster is on the right track, at least he's on a far better track than anyone who thinks a few empty hotel rooms means a financial crash! Crashes take time to build up in the background, everyone can see them building and all the components are right there in front of you. But in the meantime, everyday life continues, tourists keep arriving and exporters keep selling, those are not components of the crash, the background slow building things are.

 

But in the case of Thailand and real estate: every country renews its housing stock from time to time, it's part of the cycle of development and growth, the problem with Thailand is there was so much housing to upgrade that seems everywhere is being rebuilt. I look around me at newer housing estates, the closest is high quality and it's sold out 100%; the next nearest is also good quality and it's sold out too; some of the older lower quality ones on the outskirts seem to have places for sale but in general, in the North, there's no ghost or empty sub divisions, no condo buildings with no lights on at all at night, even the agents web sites/windows confirm there's no such thing. Perhaps in Pattaya and elsewhere it's different.

[saengd]

13 hours ago, jackdd said:

Only you are bickering, you claim you are right, but the numbers to which you refer show something different

 

China has about twice the population of Europe, so according to your numbers one European equals about 2 Chinese tourists, regarding their spending in Thailand per visit. I can agree with this, the 3 Chinese = 1 western which i assumed in my first post might have been a bit too high.

You're getting closer but still not there, try this to see if it helps...using the numbers we used previously:

 

China supplies 50% more tourists than Europe, but

 

Chinese tourists stay only 50% as long as Europeans, BUT

 

Chinese tourists daily expenditure  is 50% higher than Europeans.

[Straight8]

17 hours ago, craigieboy1973 said:

Chinese and indians are more welcome in Thailand then westerners done know why they dont spend the money we do but each to there own ..... i no longer stay bkk more then few days but the less customers the more hotels charge ..... instead go home to village spend my money local 

What??

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And the only way that is going to happen, is if we see a China style massive raise in wages. Do you really think the government, and the elite that they work so hard to coddle and protect, want to see that happen? 

Welfare (free money for women) seemed to stop it in the western world.

[DannyCarlton]

So the OP has deduced from his experience of a couple of low occupancy hotels in the low season and a couple of empty restaurants in one resort, that Thailand is at the beginning of a financial crisis.

 

Equates to deducing the future of climate change from today's weather.

 

A completely pointless post.

[1FinickyOne]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Come back down to earth

I'll go - - but only as a tourist.

[BestB]

3 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

There is no accurate measure of unemployment in Thailand but certainly the figures would not be accepted as accurate in a western country or any democracy.  In Thailand household debt is overwhelming people. Thailand is NOT years upfront of any of the home countries of posters in this forum. The stultifying effect of the regime, lack of investment in small businesses,  lack of agrarian reform, lack of investment in education and the terrible inequality of income and wealth distribution is border line medieval.  The rule of law is non existent 25 million people had their vote stolen. It is sadly, a sick country.  Poor old Thailand everybody but the ultra wealthy power elite and their military muscle are suffering.

You are posting about social problems  in Thailand not financial. What is US debt again? Australian or UK debt? Most of the Western world running budget deficit, and has been doing so for decades, Thailand has been running budget surplus.

 

How much foreign reserves is held by your home country? willing to bet not even half of what Thailand has

 

And on the subject of investment, may be you missing all the headlines but the reason why THB keeps getting stronger is because of investors pouring money in

[TheAppletons]

5 minutes ago, BestB said:

You are posting about social problems  in Thailand not financial. What is US debt again? Australian or UK debt? Most of the Western world running budget deficit, and has been doing so for decades, Thailand has been running budget surplus.

 

How much foreign reserves is held by your home country? willing to bet not even half of what Thailand has

 

And on the subject of investment, may be you missing all the headlines but the reason why THB keeps getting stronger is because of investors pouring money in

Factually speaking, Thailand is running a budget deficit.  450 billion THB in 2019 and the same is expected for 2020 (based upon a projection of 4% GDP growth, which seems unlikely.)  

 

Source is the Bangkok Post, a publication to which I cannot link on this forum, but if you googled "B450bn budget deficit repeats", I think you'll find the article relatively easily.

[Don Mega]

On 11/16/2019 at 1:31 AM, White Christmas13 said:

just one picture I don't want to name the hotel.

 

 

Dao cafe is more of a short time room than hotel.

[BestB]

3 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

Factually speaking, Thailand is running a budget deficit.  450 billion THB in 2019 and the same is expected for 2020 (based upon a projection of 4% GDP growth, which seems unlikely.)  

 

Source is the Bangkok Post, a publication to which I cannot link on this forum, but if you googled "B450bn budget deficit repeats", I think you'll find the article relatively easily.

All previous years was budget surplus, this year i have no idea what they running because one day its deficit, next day its surplus, on another day back to back to deficit and keeps on changing.

 

This year, government has enough money to cover all projects, yet next day government looking for loans.

[saengd]

Not to confuse budget deficit with balance of trade (current account) surplus.

 

Worth saying that the Thai gov. was strongly advised by World Bank and IMF to operate a larger deficit budget,  simply because they have so much headroom that can be used to build out infrastructure.

[saengd]

Also a note about loans.

 

If Thailand borrows say US 100 bill to finance this or that, BOT will issues US 100 bill. equivalent of Treasury bonds at 4% for 30 years. Take up will be oversubscribed, gov. will have borrowed money at 4% and in 30 years when redemption is due, the capital value will be only a fraction of what it is today. It's a great way to finance infrastructure build out, cheap as chips.

[Sticky Wicket]

22 hours ago, saengd said:

If you google average tourist spend Thailand you'll see that Chinese tourists spend more on average than their western counterparts.

Buying high end designer items.

Most of that cash will go back to Europe , the mall where it is sold and a tiny percentage to the vendor.

 

Oh and the tax man!!

Edited November 17, 2019 by Sticky Wicket

[GeorgeCross]

On 11/16/2019 at 12:01 AM, White Christmas13 said:

3000-4000 baht per night? I use Booking.com and I pay 5200 for 8 days,and yes it is not near

the beach,but it has a beautiful swimming pool,bar and restaurant.

 

maaaaaan.. i pay 2000 baht for the whole month, its not near the beach in fact its 20km from the city but it has 2 yaba dealers next door and a beautiful convenience store out the front.

 

 

[saengd]

9 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Ehhh but now you’re saying things are going great here because u see several new cars on the roads??

With 1000 bht down payment u can have a new car here also !

The Managing Director and Global Head of Sovereign Ratings for Fitch Ratings, James McCormack, said today that Thai economic growth this year stood at 3%, which was a little lower than the 3.2% projection, due to the global economic volatility, but Thailand is still one of 12 only countries around the world with a positive outlook.

 

 

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/76165-fitch-ratings-raises-thailands-outlook-to-positive.html

Edited November 17, 2019 by saengd

[DannyCarlton]

20 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Dao cafe is more of a short time room than hotel.

No. Hotel rooms are popular. However, "scantily clad girls around the pool" is a nonsense. The girly bar is separate, contains only a couple of ancient munters, who don't venture to the pool and "short time" rooms are the girls' rooms not hotel rooms. Rooms are basic and obscure location means that it's only a viable choice if you have transport. Darkside of Pattaya. A long way from the beach. Restaurant is based on Belgian food and quite good.

[Don Mega]

1 minute ago, DannyCarlton said:

No. Hotel rooms are popular. However, "scantily clad girls around the pool" is a nonsense. The girly bar is separate, contains only a couple of ancient munters, who don't venture to the pool and "short time" rooms are the girls' rooms not hotel rooms. Rooms are basic and obscure location means that it's only a viable choice if you have transport. Darkside of Pattaya. A long way from the beach. Restaurant is based on Belgian food and quite good.

food is good, I eat there often.

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, Don Mega said:

food is good, I eat there often.

Dao Cafe (as opposed to Dao Bar) is family orientated. Often eat there with my family as my 7 year old son can use the pool whilst we relax. OP is a fantasist.

[Don Mega]

2 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Dao Cafe (as opposed to Dao Bar) is family orientated. Often eat there with my family as my 7 year old son can use the pool whilst we relax. OP is a fantasist.

Where is dao bar ?

[DannyCarlton]

Just now, Don Mega said:

Where is dao bar ?

It's behind and attached to Dao Cafe. Accessed from the street behind. Very little interaction between the 2, although you can order food from the restaurant and eat it in the bar.

[Don Mega]

Just now, DannyCarlton said:

It's behind and attached to Dao Cafe. Accessed from the street behind. Very little interaction between the 2, although you can order food from the restaurant and eat it in the bar.

Thanks, will check it out.

[neeray]

16 hours ago, meechai said:

Thailand may not have the same recovery options the US had when their mortgage holding citizens start sending in their jungle mail ( house keys forfeited) Or car & credit card holders default.

What is "jungle mail"?

 

Serious question. (I don't get out much)

[Skallywag]

4 hours ago, swissie said:

For years now they have overbuilt both subdivisions & condos

Next they overbuilt shopping malls. Never asking themselves who will buy

these & with what income? Who will shop these malls & with what income?

This is what I cannot understand economically. 

How do banks or lenders make money if an investment goes bankrupt in thailand?

How do these "builders" , "developers" pay off the loans?

And it seems to still be happening, why do banks keep loaning out money to unprofitable ventures?

How can condos at 30% capacity and malls nearly empty not go bankrupt?

[saengd]

Non-performing loan ratio is quite low:

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=428&language=ENG

 

Commercials NPL's under 3%

Edited November 17, 2019 by saengd