Could the "New China virus" affect Pattaya??

[Traubert]

5 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Good information.  Thank you.

 

The information needed is the incubation period.  Something that is either not known at this stage, or not disclosed by authorities.

 

Hosts carrying the virus could get on a plane, and within hours, infect a new city, in a new country.     

You're welcome.

 

The WHO are going with the evidence of the previous five mutations of the SARS virus and say 14 days incubation.

[Tounge Thaied]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

The information needed is the incubation period.  Something that is either not known at this stage, or not disclosed by authorities.

Human coronaviruses other than SARS...

Of nine papers providing an incubation period for human coronavirus, two were based on original data and four were sourced. All sourced estimates cited a 1967 experimental study, which found the incubation period to range from 2 days to 4 days, with a mean of 3·3 days.²⁶ An experimental study by Tyrell and colleagues⁶⁵ found similar results. Most published estimates for human coronavirus are consistent with an incubation period of 2–5 days

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4327893/

[Traubert]

4 minutes ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Human coronaviruses other than SARS...

Of nine papers providing an incubation period for human coronavirus, two were based on original data and four were sourced. All sourced estimates cited a 1967 experimental study, which found the incubation period to range from 2 days to 4 days, with a mean of 3·3 days.²⁶ An experimental study by Tyrell and colleagues⁶⁵ found similar results. Most published estimates for human coronavirus are consistent with an incubation period of 2–5 days

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4327893/

Thanks, but they are quite confident that the current virus is a mutation of the SARS virus of 2003 according to WHO. It was bred in bats and spread by civets. Again they are saying that it is wild animal sourced.

[Tounge Thaied]

10 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Thanks, but they are quite confident that the current virus is a mutation of the SARS virus of 2003 according to WHO. It was bred in bats and spread by civets. Again they are saying that it is wild animal sourced.

if you read the study it addresses SARS Associated Coronavirus that is now being transmitted from person to person. They are putting the incubation period on this from 2-10 days...

"We found 168 sources with estimates for the incubation period of SARS-associated coronavirus. Public concern and the importance of quarantine for controlling SARS-associated coronavirus contribute to frequent statements of the incubation period.^8,9,69 Most (n=81) of the published estimates were sourced, with 65 unsourced, and 30 original estimates. The most cited sources are Donnelly and colleagues’⁶⁷ early analysis of the Hong Kong outbreak, and the consensus estimate published by WHO.⁷ Most estimates for SARS-associated coronavirus are consistent with an incubation period of 2–10 days"

[mike787]

It's akin to unprotected sex when someone cough.  Think: until you culture that sputum/cough/sneeze sample for 4-8 weeks, you have no idea if they are infected....would you be worried?  I am already losing sleep over it as part of the pattaya expat community - terrified is more like it. 

[Elkski]

I have low trust in china, USA,  and Thailand government  reports on this.   Let's see if more cases pop up in the next few weeks.  If no one on the planes with the confirmed traveling cases show up positive  that will be a good thing.  It is concerning how little  they are prepared  to set up thermal  imaging systems at all the various  checkpoints at each major airport.  The current security screening system has already maxed out some of the square footage where they have tried to cram these checkpoints in Old Airport designs. No way have the government or airports planned a budget or equipment needed to set up these thermal imaging systems or they would be in place already and not wait until after and epidemics begins.   And is fever the only thg hing they have to check?  What % of contagious stage is a fever  present? What % of confirmed cases  have a fever?  I sat next to a lady that coughed quite a bit on my 10 and a half hour flight from Shanghai to Seattle. It prompted me to wear my n95 mask the whole time. I also could hear a few other people with bad coughs nearby.  I had respiratory issues at least half of my 25-day recent vacation to Thailand so I was a little compromised and worried about getting something worse.  I also visited the hill-tribe communities and I understand there is some respiratory issue that's prevalent there that's very hard to cure. Basically for an American who's lived in fresh air western suburbs I'm a virgin when it comes to disgusting tropical pollution and jungle germs. 

I did have the flu with fever for a few days.  Draining sinus as nd body aches,  wheezing  chest and  coughing.  What would happen if I had plans to travel on 2 of my trips.   These airline give no leeway to delaying transport  even if you call up and say you have a bad cough.  I tried this  2 years ago with delta.   Sorry  300 USD CHANGE FEE.   

Edited January 22, 2020 by Elkski

[champers]

BBC reporting that Wuhan has closed all public transport including planes and trains in and out of the city. Wuhan has a population of 8.9 million so is about the same size as London. They note there is no announcement about private transport so how do you stop those travelling in private cars? Impose martial law?

[Banana7]

14 hours ago, champers said:

BBC reporting that Wuhan has closed all public transport including planes and trains in and out of the city. Wuhan has a population of 8.9 million so is about the same size as London. They note there is no announcement about private transport so how do you stop those travelling in private cars? Impose martial law?

BBC is now reporting Huanggang a city of six million will also be locked down.

 

BBC also reports  a third city Ezhou, with a million people, will close its train stations.

 

In Wuhan, all hospitals are full, flooded with suspected cases, people have to wait up to 5 hours to see a doctor. Doctors are quoted as saying "The virus is now spreading at an alarming rate".

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Banana7

[Youlike]

On 1/21/2020 at 11:10 AM, AlexRich said:

And Chinese people cough openly, with no attempt to cover their face. I would avoid the region until it is under control.

I know a chinese from Wuhan and he is the most well mannered chinese i have ever met....so we're lucky it's from this very developed city.

[Chivas]

I think within a week we will be seeing problems worldwide which will affect all travel and flight cancellations

 

[Beggar]

There will be no danger at all. Just before I went to the Central Shopping Mall here in Pattaya and there were more people without a mask than without a plastic bag. But on a more serious note - there were extremely many people who had a mask and myself without any was scared. Is this the Venician Carnevale here in Pattaya? Or is it a new fashion? Or just a new necessity? 

[champers]

6 hours ago, Banana7 said:

BBC is now reporting Huanggang a city of six million will also be locked down.

 

BBC also reports  a third city Ezhou, with a million people, will close its train stations.

 

In Wuhan, all hospitals are full, flooded with suspected cases, people have to wait up to 5 hours to see a doctor. Doctors are quoted as saying "The virus is now spreading at an alarming rate".

 

Solitary confinement is the preferred option to treat these cases. This is impossible when cases run to the hundreds. Ideally, countries should bar any entries from China till this crisis is over, but fear of loss of revenue takes precedence. Fingers crossed.

[david555]

On 1/22/2020 at 5:28 PM, Bigz said:

Run or just stop worry. You'll die one way or the other

yes …, but not now yet please …!

[david555]

On 1/22/2020 at 5:20 PM, Ireland32 said:

Or The Base , or Siam Siam, Ferry Boats , Chinese Hotels, Chinese Restaurants 

You forgot The Walking Street flag tours ..! " the Chinese mass destruction weapon  danger " now ...5555

[Peterbilt]

On 1/22/2020 at 3:34 PM, Traubert said:

Safe in the bars. All you get there is earache off all the ex-seals, CIA, FBI, Delta Force, Chicago Police etc.

Never met one of those. But I did meet plenty of wealthy real estate agents, leading bank managers and an abundance of CEOs....
The latter often discussing business strategies while sitting at those concrete table and having a bottle of LEO from the nearest 7/11..... ????

[scubascuba3]

17 million Chinese in quarantine apparently

[daveAustin]

I think Pattaya might be AFFECTED by even fewer tourists. In perspective (and though we really do need to lose couple billion people), how many die per day of main disease and RTA? This is in the news because it's non-norm and sensational.

[daveAustin]

18 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

17 million Chinese in quarantine apparently

Not enough 

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, Youlike said:

I know a chinese from Wuhan and he is the most well mannered chinese i have ever met....so we're lucky it's from this very developed city.

Well I used to go there work related, hated the place and the people were unpleasant. Very industrialized and polluted. So much so people from other parts of China even spoke negatively of them. I will say it was many years ago. It's in a vast crowded city, where people drag their beds out onto the street in summer (well they did when I went).... quite a breeding ground one would think. I think back to the unhygienic  conditions I saw in the works canteen and worry now. 

[banglay]

I live 20 klix south of Pattaya ...and I have noticed a marked daily increase of Khun Thai wearing surgical masks whilst shopping at the busy local markets ... The Thais are just as worried as the expat community .. I think this is not  just as coincidence.. 

Even the scaremongering Western Press is starting to report this in a less sensational way and in a more concerned manner ..

Watch the share prices in "Surgical mask" sky rocket in the next few weeks ..

[david555]

Can that famous Chinese wall not keep them in anymore ...? Or the Bamboo curtain ? ????????

 

 

[Leaver]

12 hours ago, Chivas said:

I think within a week we will be seeing problems worldwide which will affect all travel and flight cancellations

 

This is why I asked about the incubation period.  There are two different reports from members about this period.  One is 2 to 3 days, the other is 14 days.  This is a big difference when you are trying to quarantine a possible pandemic. 

[Tounge Thaied]

A sober update on this virus...

https://www.bitchute.com/video/yJ3ysUI9AN8/

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

This is why I asked about the incubation period.  There are two different reports from members about this period.  One is 2 to 3 days, the other is 14 days.  This is a big difference when you are trying to quarantine a possible pandemic. 

Looks like they've quarantined an entire city overnight in China. This is as serious as it gets in reality. This must be severely dangerous now.

Flights of course are the biggest spreader. I'm expecting before long drastic cut backs

[Leaver]

10 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Looks like they've quarantined an entire city overnight in China. This is as serious as it gets in reality. This must be severely dangerous now.

Flights of course are the biggest spreader. I'm expecting before long drastic cut backs

They have actually quarantined several cities.   

 

It would appear, it's too late now, the virus has been spread to unaffected cities and countries, through domestic and international travel.  

 

Unknown to them, there would be people around the world carrying the virus now, who are not displaying symptoms, but will be soon, infecting others before being quarantined themselves.       

[Chivas]

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

They have actually quarantined several cities.   

 

It would appear, it's too late now, the virus has been spread to unaffected cities and countries, through domestic and international travel.  

      

Leisure travel will simply have to be curtailed via plane. Just as I'm typing Sky reporting 8 cities now locked down

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, Chivas said:

Leisure travel will simply have to be curtailed via plane. Just as I'm typing Sky reporting 8 cities now locked down

This would go a long way to managing the outbreak, but any attempt at containment, to a certain geographical area, is now too late.  It has already left Wuhan, and is on its way around the world. 

[Jip99]

Just shoot any palpitating Chinese on sight................................. start on Beach Road, Pattaya about 06:30 each morning.

[JustAnotherHun]

I'm just coming back from Beach Road. Did not see one single Corona virus. That shows, Thai IOs at the airports are doing a great job.

Thank you, beloved general for saving us all.

Edited January 24, 2020 by JustAnotherHun

[Banana7]

The virus has now killed 26 people and infected at least 830. It is spreading at an alarming rate! 30 Million people are now in lock down reported by various news agencies.