Canceling travel plans?

[Trujillo]

"Cases of pneumonia (including deaths) have tripled in Thailand in the last month."

 

So? This is no anomaly. 

 

As I said, are you really that worried about catching a flu? 

 

I'd be more worried about getting run over by a car or motorbike here than by a new strain of flu. 

[Trujillo]

The odds of you dying anywhere in the world of the new flu virus is 0.0000045 percent. 

 

How scary is that?!

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, Trujillo said:

As I said, are you really that worried about catching a flu? 

Far from seasonal flu. Mortality rate at least 10 times that of seasonal flu. Transmission one of the highest R0's known.

[emptypockets]

4 minutes ago, transam said:

There we have it in a nut shell....Your thought pattern has no substance...????

I'm not really interested in your opinion. My initial reply was in reference to the OP. I will not be changing my travel plans and I will be travelling to Thailand. Any comment from you is irrelevant.

[scubascuba3]

22 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

Let's remember that there has been one death in Thailand from the new flu virus (oh, let's call it something unsettling; how about novel coronavirus?). 

 

So your chances of dying in the land of sly smiles (so far) is one in 69 million. 

 

The chances of you getting it at all are 48 in 69 million.

 

So if you are altering plans on the basis of getting sick, you are insane. 

If you are altering your plans because of overreaction and the possibility of having to be under self-imposed house arrest for 14 days, then that's a real thing. 

The death rate is high, much higher than flu, 4% in Italy

[Scouse123]

A lot are blaming media hype for all the panic but I ask the question:-

 

Would Western governments and the Chinese in possession of the full facts be in a panic for no reason?  Do they know something far more sinister that we don't?

 

Regards the Stock market crashes etc, they have been way overbought for years and an excuse such as Corona virus has given them an excuse and an opportunity to bail out of a market that was so over inflated, it was toxic.

 

Travel plans affected? Certainly not.

 

I am booked on business to Cambodia next week and to the UK at the end of the month and I got a couple of cheap deals with Qatar air as a consequence. Shame the airline panic hadn't spread to the sale of business class seats!

[Trujillo]

Yes, it's more virulent than the common flu, but it's far, far from the Black Death that scaremongers portray it to be. 

 

The vast majority who get it recover. And the ones who succumb are mostly not healthy to begin with. 

 

Would I take a cruise right now? No, not because I am afraid of dying, but that getting the flu would ruin my expensive holiday. 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Trujillo

[transam]

10 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

The odds of you dying anywhere in the world of the new flu virus is 0.0000045 percent. 

 

How scary is that?!

A question, how many times in your lifetime have you had the flu, I mean real flu....?

 

I must have had it at least 4/5 times....

[transam]

3 minutes ago, Scouse123 said:

A lot are blaming media hype for all the panic but I ask the question:-

 

Would Western governments and the Chinese in possession of the full facts be in a panic for no reason?  Do they know something far more sinister that we don't?

 

Regards the Stock market crashes etc, they have been way overbought for years and an excuse such as Corona virus has given them an excuse and an opportunity to bail out of a market that was so over inflated, it was toxic.

 

Travel plans affected? Certainly not.

 

I am booked on business to Cambodia next week and to the UK at the end of the month and I got a couple of cheap deals with Qatar air as a consequence. Shame the airline panic hadn't spread to the sale of business class seats!

Would you agree that the spread of this virus from China, that has spread worldwide, is mainly via air travel...?

[Ventenio]

22 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

The odds of you dying anywhere in the world of the new flu virus is 0.0000045 percent. 

 

How scary is that?!

Let me correct:

 

The odds of you dying and someone confirming you died of COVID-19...

 

If you die and they don't test or don't care....you are still dead while the numbers don't move.  

 

are you saying not one body was burned in China and NOT recorded at a COVID-19 death, even though there was a 99% chance they died of COVID-19?

 

note:  i wash my hands after washing my hands.  

[madmen]

Great time for amazing deals. Flying to oz in 2 weeks for 2999 baht.

Multiply the known case by 10 and the chances of catching it is still nearly none existant if you go by odds it's all such a big deal mainly due to social media. 

There was less panic with Sars for example 

[AlienHermit66]

16 minutes ago, transam said:

A question, how many times in your lifetime have you had the flu, I mean real flu....?

 

I must have had it at least 4/5 times....

Well, there you go. Every needs to think about their own susceptibilities and weakness, and refrain from projecting their own situation on others. I never get colds or flu period, even though I live in a dense mega-city, and am surrounded by sick people at work, and countless thousands of sick people during my daily commute, crammed onto trains with them. I had one horrible sickness in my life, and that was dengue - so weak I could barely stand up or hold my head up. Took at least six months if not a year to feel recovered from that. I fought brutal dengue without hospitalization, so I'm not worried about a viral infection and/or pneumonia. Those who succumb to the flu and pneumonia are being culled by nature. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by AlienHermit66
spelling

[khunpa]

31 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

The odds of you dying anywhere in the world of the new flu virus is 0.0000045 percent. 

 

How scary is that?!

Unless you are old and weak, there is no reason to be scared or worried of dying of the new virus.

 

However, there is good reason to be worried no matter how old you are and Wuhan is a real life example of that. Living a place with a broken hospital system is not fun for anyone.

 

It is not for fun that China very early in the outbreak decided to close down huge cities and take an enormous hit financially. We are also seeing other countries reacting very aggressively to try to delay this virus. All this is not done for fun, but for a very good reason. Nobody wants to become the next Wuhan.

 

This is in no way to be compared to the flu. Let this virus make its damage and then compare.

 

Edited March 7, 2020 by khunpa

[Trujillo]

You've had the flu four or five times in your life. So how do you want us to look at that? 

 

You are posting so you are not dead, so that indicates that you can get the flu a number of times and come out the other side fine. 

Or do you mean it's "easy" to get the flu? (I assume you are older than five years old.)

 

I have not had the flu (the real flu) for probably 25 years, maybe longer. I travel internationally and regionally. 

 

"Would Western governments and the Chinese in possession of the full facts be in a panic for no reason?"

 

What makes you think that the Chinese have the full facts? Or the Western governments? I have read in various places that the virus can be latent in the body for up to 21 days...why is 14 days the "written in stone" time to quarantine? It's said the virus can live on surfaces up to nine days. Who can confirm this? Is this true or false? 

Is it not true that most of the deaths are those of Asian ethnicity? Scientists have identified a more favorable receptor in these peoples, right? 

 

The US top governmental doctor, the surgeon general, says wearing masks for the public are useless, but they work fine for medical workers...

 

Full facts? Is this a joke? This is the social media era; facts are facts regardless of evidence, right? 

 

[DannyCarlton]

Just now, khunpa said:

However, there is good reason to be worried no matter how old you are and Wuhan is a real life example of that.

2 doctors, both in their 30's and from Wuhan, have died of Covid-19.

[transam]

1 minute ago, AlienHermit66 said:

Well, there you go. Every needs to think about their own susceptibilities and weakness, and refrain from projecting their own situation on others. I never get colds or flu period, even though I live in a dense mega-city, and am surrounded by sick people at work, and countless thousands of sick people during my daily commute, crammed onto trains with them. I had one horrible sickness in my life, and that was dengue - so weak I could barely stand up or hold my head up. Took at least six months if not a year to feel recovered from that. I fought brutal dengue without hospitalization, so I'm not worried about a viral infection and/or pneumonia. Those who succumb to the flu and pneumonia are being called by nature. 

There is always a first time for flu, the same as Dengue.....

[transam]

5 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Unless you are old and weak, there is no reason to be scared or worried of dying of the new virus.

 

However, there is good reason to be worried no matter how old you are and Wuhan is a real life example of that. Living a place with a broken hospital system is not fun for anyone.

 

It is not for fun that China very early in the outbreak decided to close down huge cities and take an enormous hit financially. We are also seeing other countries reacting very aggressively to try to delay this virus. All this is not done for fun, but for a very good reason. Nobody wants to become the next Wuhan.

 

This is in no way to be compared to the flu. Let this virus make its damage and then compare.

 

So what is old and what is weak....?

[khunpa]

3 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

2 doctors, both in their 30's and from Wuhan, have died of Covid-19.

Yes there are also other examples from Wuhan of other young people dying. But overall those risks seems low, if we can trust the numbers.

 

But I wonder how many people in Wuhan died of other stuff,  because they were unable to get proper treatment due to this new virus. That is what we should all be worried about.

[scubascuba3]

6 minutes ago, madmen said:

Great time for amazing deals. Flying to oz in 2 weeks for 2999 baht.

Multiply the known case by 10 and the chances of catching it is still nearly none existant if you go by odds it's all such a big deal mainly due to social media. 

There was less panic with Sars for example 

This is far worse than flu, 4% death rate in Italy, if you catch it you better start praying.

 

It currently feels like the lull before the storm in Thailand, UK, USA and other countries

[Swimfan]

49 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

Do you believe in the tooth fairy? Cases of pneumonia (including deaths) have tripled in Thailand in the last month. Hospitals generally aren't testing for Covid-19 but mis-diagnosing them as pneumonia sufferers which is what most Covid-19 sufferers die of.

And pneumonia sufferers only represent about 10% of the infected. Additional 3k pneumonia cases last month. You do the math.

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

It currently feels like the lull before the storm in Thailand, UK, USA and other countries

Which is what scientists, virologists etc. in USA and UK are saying and those in Thailand are thinking.

[khunpa]

5 minutes ago, transam said:

So what is old and what is weak....?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

[Swimfan]

1 hour ago, Trujillo said:

Let's remember that there has been one death in Thailand from the new flu virus (oh, let's call it something unsettling; how about novel coronavirus?). 

 

So your chances of dying in the land of sly smiles (so far) is one in 69 million. 

 

The chances of you getting it at all are 48 in 69 million.

 

So if you are altering plans on the basis of getting sick, you are insane. 

If you are altering your plans because of overreaction and the possibility of having to be under self-imposed house arrest for 14 days, then that's a real thing. 

Based on the assumption the official figures are true. Not all of us are gullible.

[transam]

I find it hilarious that posters here are making excuses over the NON severity of the virus. 

 

They probably don't wear a crash hat too, as the numbers are in their favour..............????

[ncc1701d]

Not for fear of getting the virus, but because of the utter incompetence from the government and the direct impact it has on all aspects of what should be a nice holiday

[transam]

2 minutes ago, khunpa said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

What about a big bloke with small lungs, when does old-ness start, I mean, we are all different. I am "old", but I am off now to the gym to shift some weights....????

[DannyCarlton]

2 minutes ago, khunpa said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

For all of you that thinks Covid-19 is just seasonal flu, please read the above link. And it doesn't even talk about it's ability to transmit infections. Unlike seasonal flu it incubates for up to 14 days during which time sufferers are asymptomatic and infectious, giving rise to so called super spreaders.

[khunpa]

2 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

For all of you that thinks Covid-19 is just seasonal flu, please read the above link. And it doesn't even talk about it's ability to transmit infections. Unlike seasonal flu it incubates for up to 14 days during which time sufferers are asymptomatic and infectious, giving rise to so called super spreaders.

You can not change the mind of those, who keep comparing to the normal flu. The problem is that they compare yearly numbers of other things, with an epidemic that has just started. Even though Wuhan is a real-life example of what can happen in any country, they simply will not look at the facts and what this virus can do to e.g. the health care systems.

 

Funny how nobody is no longer comparing to e.g. SARS, as Covid-19 has already surpassed that. When it surpasses the deaths of common flu, I guess they will have to compare with something else like world war 2.

Personally, I got very worried when China enforced complete lockdowns of cities. Nobody does this, without extremely good reason. Assuming that leaders of countries. know much more than we do, there must be very good reasons for them acting as they do. 

 

[poohy]

Hada whatsapp from my sister last night telling me not to come as i would be quarantined as from Thailand and i couldn't do it at my normal residence as my father who lives there is 97

 

Flight already booked for 30 it's the last date of a years return ....i will hope lufthansa will be sympathetic to a date change....but for when???

[stouricks]

1 hour ago, from the home of CC said:

a little OCD or is it as good as it gets lol..

What's OCD in English please?