11 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Is it possible to get death data for Thailand due to all causes? I'm interested to see if Feb. 2020 compares to Feb. 2019 and, so on. My belief is that the one death due to C-19 is an understatement and that if we were to see death data for all causes, we might see if the numbers are actually increased.

I doubt they aggregate data from all country hospitals where paperwork still means paper work. Just like the TM6's. They are in a warehouse somewhere.

2 hours ago, denby45 said:

What's with the farangs not wearing masks in Bigc. Almost 100% Thai's wearing them. Is this a macho thing.

Raaaaa it's just a flu bro, man up, real men go licking mosque gates, immune system takes care of it, nobody is going to take away my right to be an a-hole, Tarzan bundolo!

 

That's the spirit. I wouldn't be surprised if they are soon herded into a processing center for a bit of attitude adustment. In this case it would be welcome.

 

It's also why lockdowns are a must. Too many stubborn idiots.

Just now, 248900_1469958220 said:

I dont get it. Thailand was the first country in the world to have a case outside China. 'On January 13, the WHO reported a case in Thailand, the first outside of China, in a woman who had arrived from Wuhan'......so you are telling me there has been a spike starting now? Its obviously been out there months and months. Is the warmer weather slowing its spread? New research seems to point to this. 

 

This is the second Covid-19 wave to Thailand. The first wave was from Wuhan and the 2nd wave was internally inflected by Thailand, Japan and South Korea. South Korea stopped after a few days but the countries of Thailand and Japan keep flying. The first wave came from Wuhan directly and I enclose a screenshot which should shows all flights out of Wuhan.

 

The second screenshot shows the flights from Bangkok into China but also into all the other Asian countries. Thailand had most flights into China then South Korea and Japan.

 

We also run five Linux servers 24 hours a day to compute all possible scenarios and have we finished for Italy and China. The China numbers are completely under reported:

 

2020-01-26

70 Days

74,857 new Infections 7 Days

128,659 Total after 70 days

6,559 deaths /week

12,241 26 Jan 2020

58,487,760 Hubei Prov.

 

On 26 January we had a total infection in Wuhan of 128,659 with 12,241 death of which 6,559 death occurred between 18 - January - 26 January 2020. The final death toll would be 12,241 as of 26 Jan 2020.

 

2020-03-22	56	26,603	55,303	2,504	5,625	61,311,935
2020-03-30	64	44,693	95,727	4,269	9,894	61,307,666
2020-04-07	72	73,297	161,916	7,108	17,002	61,300,558

 

This above is our modelling for the population of Italy. We took a very high number of infections dating back a week before Chinese New Year and are very accurate. The curve from Italy will come in a week time between 27 to 29 as they have been on a lockdown for the past 2 weeks. Italy has a got chance to get away with 13,000 to 20,000 deaths and by end of April no new infections are recorded.

 

Thailand is just starting but the numbers from Thailand and China are the same. Kanchanaburi had certainly a death and so did Kalasin and Samui. Their is no transparent reporting and all cases are recorded for Bangkok only. My guess they will protect Bangkok but the other provinces will be on their own.

 

 

 

 

 

This is interesting:

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767&fbclid=IwAR11RylHGG4UUclqnLn3pzAJ1w7VPQ5JhbS8DGKLlfgNwPpcjMZZ0xtFisQ

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

With visas on arrival cancelled and now both the COVID test certificate and $100,000 in health insurance required in order to enter Thailand via air from foreign countries, I don't think we'll be seeing many Chinese anytime soon.

Will be waived for Chinese in a millisecond, tourists from Motherland are always welcome. Master's voice will get it done.

It would be interesting to see what strain is now predominant in Thailand. Most likely it's made a full circle around the globe.

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

7 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

This is interesting:

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767&fbclid=IwAR11RylHGG4UUclqnLn3pzAJ1w7VPQ5JhbS8DGKLlfgNwPpcjMZZ0xtFisQ

Let's hope that higher temperatures do slow it down. The only problem with that is that it might not be taken so seriously which would be a mistake. 

5 hours ago, Mavideol said:

thought the virus didn't like the hot weather, it must have adjusted/assimilated to the heat fast, Prayut better close the country down or lock it down ow whatever he wants to call it .....but it has to be done fast, no more wasting time

There is no evidence that this virus is seasonal (except speculation by Donald Trump, contradicted by his own expert advisers). There are two other serious diseases caused by other strains of coronavirus. These are SARS and MERS.  We do not have enough data on SARS to know if it was seasonal (it died out before a seasonal pattern could be confirmed or ruled out). MERS is not seasonal and certainly not inhibited by warm weather -- it has continued as an endemic disease in Saudi Arabia and the middle east. I assume that President Trump, or somebody he was watching on television, was confusing coronavirus with the unrelated influenza A virus, which indeed is transmitted much less in warm weather. Nobody who knows virology would have made this error. Maybe it's time to listen to the experts. 

 

Will Covid-19 spontaneously die out like SARS did? Will transmission go down with warmer weather? We don't know yet, but neither looks likely so far.

 

10 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

This is interesting:

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767&fbclid=IwAR11RylHGG4UUclqnLn3pzAJ1w7VPQ5JhbS8DGKLlfgNwPpcjMZZ0xtFisQ

Yes. But it only seems valid until you reach a point where the density of carriers is high enough for the primary transmission mode to change from catching it from surfaces to catching it from aerosolized air from people nearby. That's my hunch and interpretation of the recent events.

 

Lockdown and then hot&rainy season should help. 

20 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Hence, social distancing to keep the local density down.

Not seeing this yet. The Thai people in my neighborhood still sitting close together for hours at a time sharing drinks and eating out of the same bowls with their individual spoons (no serving spoons). They do wear masks outside the complex as though being inside it magically protects them from spreading illness.

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Not sarcastic.....Its a OP Headline "Chinese Tourists ready to Breakout" in your local edition of the paper that can not be named...

Well from where I am looking (Beijing) .... I do not think many from China is ready to travel to any country that has rising numbers of C19 .....

 

I would think what was written is nothing but spin and propaganda ....

1 minute ago, JCP108 said:

Not seeing this yet. The Thai people in my neighborhood still sitting close together for hours at a time sharing drinks and eating out of the same bowls with their individual spoons (no serving spoons). They do wear masks outside the complex as though being inside it magically protects them from spreading illness.

There's a lot that needs to change and some of it, like communal meals, is embedded very deep in Thainess. Won't change quickly.

5 hours ago, edwinchester said:

We live just north of Kanchanaburi where there are a number of army bases.

Usually you see an occasional convoy of troops and field guns off to the local firing range.

Just recently there has been many large convoys of purely supply trucks heading to the largest base.

Getting the cases of Leo in early?

1 hour ago, 3 minus 2 said:

this is a  site for world wide c virus stats   it s regularly updated and was  given to me by a med'/ scientist that works for Roche

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1-sX77RQsi5L8WuitD1Phb2_8_h1IPSQLkWaeUYST6ICTzdWRs96VtUDs

 

 

That website must be getting quite a few hits

 

Last week they introduced adverts but these were taken away quite swiftly 

Troubling times for expats and retired farangs...given the animosity towards

farang, what sort of priority will be given to those who fall ill? What about

protection from locals who are desperate with no money, employment and food?

 

6 hours ago, Mavideol said:

if the majority are in BKK that would be a smart move to keep them there and don't allow them to travel and spread it out, thus first and foremost, lock down/shut down/block down, halt any and all traffic out of BKK

Too late, someone I know working in Bangkok headed back to Roi-Et today... she said the bus station was packed with people going home around the country. Most quoted, "stay in Bkk for what, everything's closed and nothing to do".

It will hit soon and hard, the problem is with comprehension, here in the UK the sun is shining and all looks lovely, it is only just starting to sink in what is needed to stop this virus and by that time it is too late, the UK figures are near enough an exact match to Italy but two weeks behind so watch this space, Thailand is about 2 weeks behind the UK in numbers. It is ridiculous to keep fooling yourselves that Thailand will be relatively ok because it is hot ! Plenty of other hot Countries are in the sh+t as well.

7 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Too late, someone I know working in Bangkok headed back to Roi-Et today... she said the bus station was packed with people going home around the country. Most quoted, "stay in Bkk for what, everything's closed and nothing to do".

Pics on Thaivisa Facebook page was shocking, huge crowds!

 

6 hours ago, Mavideol said:

if the majority are in BKK that would be a smart move to keep them there and don't allow them to travel and spread it out, thus first and foremost, lock down/shut down/block down, halt any and all traffic out of BKK

Will you sponsor the thousands of unemployed workers of closed down shopping centers from your savings ?
Don't think so ...

6 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

yup, 188 cases in one day means massive community spread, likely 1000s of carriers walking around.

 

low death count means the outbreak is within the 3 week mortality window so the outbreak is fresh

 

only thing that will stop this is full lockdown now.

 

choose wisely khun prayut do you value your people or your economy. you cannot have both.

 

 

Very good post. 'course people come second 'cause need money to pay our Chinese mates, who let this vius loose, for submarines etc, so in return they'll build their CCP road etc here with their CCP workers and send their virus riddled CCP tourists here. Not being too cynicle am I?

1 minute ago, 0815 said:

Will you sponsor the thousands of unemployed workers of closed down shopping centers from your savings ?
Don't think so ...

That's where the govt needs to step in and help.

All be fine in a coupla weeks - don't know what the panic is about.

19 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

Troubling times for expats and retired farangs...given the animosity towards

farang, what sort of priority will be given to those who fall ill? What about

protection from locals who are desperate with no money, employment and food?

 

Animosity? What animosity?

 

Please don't mention the DPM/Health Minister's rants and raves.

4 minutes ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

That's where the govt needs to step in and help.

Too late now! they were incapable of taking the correct action, the way they have handled this has been a disgrace, where I live the locals are disgusted with their "Government"

1 minute ago, NanLaew said:

Animosity? What animosity?

Are we witnessing the start of yet another TVF fallacy? looks that way..................... ???? 

How safe is the banking in Thailand. Are the deposits insured?

2 minutes ago, CGW said:

Too late now! they were incapable of taking the correct action, the way they have handled this has been a disgrace, where I live the locals are disgusted with their "Government"

Totally agree, but the local village to me continues as normal.  3 day temple pissup ongoing ???? 

2 minutes ago, Rocking Robert said:

How safe is the banking in Thailand. Are the deposits insured?

Fully.

 

Next?

7 minutes ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

Totally agree, but the local village to me continues as normal.  3 day temple pissup ongoing ???? 

There was a truck going around here earlier telling people to take "precautions" no parties etc, first time for everything! very quite here for a weekend.

20 minutes ago, Tingnongnoi said:

Pics on Thaivisa Facebook page was shocking, huge crowds!

 

 

no worse than immigratiom