is Thailand aiming for 'Herd Immunity'?

[saengd]

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-coronavirus-updates-is-the-thai-government-planning-to-use-a-new-herd-immunity-model-approach

Have you read what that site is, it's not medically based, instead it's a political mouthpiece.

[Mattd]

38 minutes ago, saengd said:

By contrast, the UK's first case was found on 28 February and from there they grew to over 6.650 by 23 March, less than 4 weeks.

 

Thailand couldn't possibly have hidden a similar rate of spread, we would all have seen or heard about incidents locally and we didn't.

The main difference is the ability and willingness to test, the true numbers of those infected are unknown in either country (or any) as it is not possible to test at the pace of the infection rate, especially as it grows.

In countries such as the UK, the test is free, drive through etc. whereas in Thailand the cost of a test ranges from 3,000 to 25,000 THB, which is not affordable by the majority of the population.

I have no idea how deaths are attributed, but Thailand is not renown for keeping accurate figures, for example road deaths, the official figures are only those that die at the scene, so deaths from Covid-19 are not necessarily logged as such.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Mattd

[Kinnock]

Most countries are going for the herd immunity option - they just just don't know it, or admit it.

 

Everyone staying at home is just not economically sustainable or practical ..... or politically palatable for the 'herd'.

 

A few countries may have a system of government powerful enough to try another way, most do not.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Mattd said:

The main difference is the ability and willingness to test, the true numbers of those infected are unknown in either country (or any) as it is not possible to test at the pace the infection rate, especially as it grows.

In countries such as the UK, the test is free, drive through etc. whereas in Thailand the cost of a test ranges from 3,000 to 25,000 THB, which is not affordable by the majority of the population.

I have no idea how deaths are attributed, but Thailand is not renown for keeping accurate figures, for example road deaths, the official figures are only those that die at the scene, so deaths from Covid-19 are not necessarily logged as such.

Yes I accept that testing is different between the two countries but I ask you, how do you hide 6,500 cases? Each of us knows how many people directly and indirectly plus the likes of the Facebook grapevine, each of us would encounter anecdotes that would point to a problem, even TVF posters would have mentioned such things....they didn't. My wife tunes into a customer base of over 400 people plus an official tour guides network of over 500 people, not a word has been spoken of these things.

[Slip]

36 minutes ago, saengd said:

I don't believe this, I subscribe to and the evidence supports a mutation. Further confirmation of this is found here: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

From your linked article:

 

Quote

The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.

 

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist.

 

[Tayaout]

10 minutes ago, saengd said:

Have you read what that site is, it's not medically based, instead it's a political mouthpiece.

Yes I read many articles. 

[saengd]

3 minutes ago, Slip said:

From your linked article:

 

 

I'm not sure they know completely, I can see no other logical explanation.

[Lupusthai]

For the most rational approach to view at the situation, I use the following - daily updated - link:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
(available in English and German)

[metisdead]

A conspiracy post has been reported and removed. 

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

27 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-coronavirus-updates-is-the-thai-government-planning-to-use-a-new-herd-immunity-model-approach

thailandmedicalnews.com

 

LOL - did you clip the "Donate" button and give them your money?

 

Earlier articles by thanlandmedicalnews, citing themselves as a source, claim that COVID-19 originated outside China.

[Tayaout]

Just now, SometimezaGreatNotion said:

thailandmedicalnews.com

 

LOL - did you clip the "Donate" button and give them your money?

 

Earlier articles by thanlandmedicalnews, citing themselves as a source, claim that COVID-19 originated outside China.

I guess they quoted the thai doctor who said it's from Italy eh. 

[geriatrickid]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

I picked up what I read about China getting back to work from Bloomberg, they are pretty clear than Beijing and Shanghai are returning to normal and that Hong Kong ers are returning to work also. Wouldn't it be ironic if the safe haven for us turned out to be mainland China.

You should check out the news from Hong Kong. It's taken a dramatic shift to the negative. Hong Kong relaxed its social distancing and the plague returned with a vengeance.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-quarantine-intl-hnk/index.html

 

45 minutes ago, GalaxyMan said:

Herd immunity might be a good idea scientifically, but it doesn't seem to apply with COVID-19, which 'cured' people have gotten again, according to reports. I see the whole herd immunity support being based on cluelessness and helplessness to know what to do. It's an excuse to do nothing. It's also a very convenient way to get rid of an expensive segment of the population, the old people who require more medical resources (expensive).

Correct.  There is no evidence that "herd immunity" applies here. People are embracing anything they can that makes them feel better

 

 

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

12 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Correct.  There is no evidence that "herd immunity" applies here. People are embracing anything they can that makes them feel better

United States Center for Disease Control:

 

Q: Can people who recover from COVID-19 be infected again?

A: The immune response to COVID-19 is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV infection are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

[Sharp]

Personally I would be very sceptical of the so called Italy strain. 

See here 

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

[PingRoundTheWorld]

I don't think it's a deliberate attempt at herd immunity as it is sheer incompetence. They simply make snap decisions with no plans and no foresight as to the ramifications. Just a few of the brilliant recent decisions:

 

1. Shut down all bars and clubs: congratulations, you now have thousands of potential super spreaders going back to their home towns and spread it along the way and in the countryside when they arrive.

2. Shut down all non-essential stores: less effect probably, but same as above - more people going home.

3. Allowing people on overcrowded buses: almost guaranteed that there will be several sick on each bus, further ensuring it spreads throughout the country.

 

I don't think any of this was done deliberately, they're just running around like headless chicken making one random rule after another then changing it the next hour. But the end result is that wether they intended it or not - Thailand is going to get completely infected, and herd immunity will be the end result, eventually.

 

As far as government hiding numbers etc. - it's not so much that they hid any numbers, it's just that they didn't count. If they don't test, they don't find, it's that simple. Recently they started testing more (we'll leave the reasons why to another post) so of course they are finding more. It's not that the virus is all of a sudden "a new strain" or "more aggressive" - it's just that it was circulating around for over two months building up. Just because someone was in Lumpini stadium and tested positive doesn't necessarily mean they actually got it from there. More likely is that person infected a few people, and the rest who supposedly got it from there were already infected from other sources.

 

Anyway, bottom line is - it's been spreading for months now, many of us probably already had it and are just not aware, and it's beyond the government's ability to control now. All they can do forward is control the aftermath, and find a scapegoat. "Italian virus" says it all.

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say
Pathogen appears to spread fastest at 8.72 degrees Celsius, so countries in colder climes should ‘adopt the strictest control measures’, according to researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province

 

click for article: South China Morning Post article

 

Not to say the sky won't fall in Southeast Asia. The sky just seems to have sagged down in slo-mo for awhile.

Edited March 24, 2020 by SometimezaGreatNotion

[VocalNeal]

If anything. Thailand is aiming for Herd Compliance

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

U.S. National Public Radio article (click for reference)

 

"Viruses spread through respiratory droplets that are released when an infected person coughs or sneezes. And the droplets are more likely to spread under certain conditions. 'What we know is that they're [the droplets] are better at staying afloat when the air is cold and dry,' says McGraw. 'When the air is humid and warm, [the droplets] fall to the ground more quickly, and it makes transmission harder.'"

Edited March 24, 2020 by SometimezaGreatNotion

[Canuck1966]

2 hours ago, Drax said:

Someone I know died of coronavirus + bacterial infection last night here in Thailand.... Not on news yet. He had been in ITC for 10 days now. Man this is getting serious. He did work on a nightclub. I don’t wanna mention the name due to defamation laws but it’s not the thonglor one. This means this virus is more spreading than we think. 

I live in a small village near the beach Chaam and the tannoy last night told everyone to stay inside as a woman from 7/11 had died of Whu flu

[Canuck1966]

16 minutes ago, SometimezaGreatNotion said:

Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say
Pathogen appears to spread fastest at 8.72 degrees Celsius, so countries in colder climes should ‘adopt the strictest control measures’, according to researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province

 

click for article: South China Morning Post article

 

Not to say the sky won't fall in Southeast Asia. The sky just seems to have sagged down in slo-mo for awhile.

You can offset that by many people living together in cramped accommodation and eating with one spoon from the same pot

[Canuck1966]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Yes I accept that testing is different between the two countries but I ask you, how do you hide 6,500 cases? Each of us knows how many people directly and indirectly plus the likes of the Facebook grapevine, each of us would encounter anecdotes that would point to a problem, even TVF posters would have mentioned such things....they didn't. My wife tunes into a customer base of over 400 people plus an official tour guides network of over 500 people, not a word has been spoken of these things.

Maybe she doesn't want to tell you! 

I've heard lots of rumours and anecdotal evidence in the last month.

Some of it was BS and some of it was photos of rammed hospitals with people gasping for breath .

TBF every time you go in a Thai hospital there are a lot of people on oxygen so it's not always easy to tell..... and they are packed to the rafters on a normal day even before this started.

 

Remember Thais would hate to think they were dealing with this worse than their neighbours.(Laos, Camb & Burma)

They all have BS figures to save FACE

 

[SometimezaGreatNotion]

From worldlifeexpectancy.com :

In Thailand, approximately 69.87 out of 100,000 people die of influenza or pneumonia annually.

 

So for the total Thai population (about 69.80 million), about 48,800 people die annually from influenza or pneumonia.

 

This makes is difficult to assess how many more of the annual virus deaths have been caused by COVID-19 so far. Things will be more clear if the doctors and hospitals become more transparent about testing and confirming that deaths are specifically due to COVID-19.

[saengd]

19 minutes ago, Canuck1966 said:

Maybe she doesn't want to tell you! 

I've heard lots of rumours and anecdotal evidence in the last month.

Some of it was BS and some of it was photos of rammed hospitals with people gasping for breath .

TBF every time you go in a Thai hospital there are a lot of people on oxygen so it's not always easy to tell..... and they are packed to the rafters on a normal day even before this started.

 

Remember Thais would hate to think they were dealing with this worse than their neighbours.(Laos, Camb & Burma)

They all have BS figures to save FACE

 

"TBF every time you go in a Thai hospital there are a lot of people on oxygen so it's not always easy to tell..... and they are packed to the rafters on a normal day even before this started".

 

So you think you see lots of people on oxygen in Thai hospitals and many of these could be covin19 patients, they just let you walk in a look do they!!!

[Henryford]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

If the UK with all of its facilities and tools was unable to prevent the spread of the virus, how exactly did Thailand manage to hide and prevent it for so long?

Do we know if they have. You only know about the spread if many people are tested and deaths reported as Corona related. Is that happening in Thailand.  If you don't test, then no problem !

[andy72]

There is no herd immunity in this scenario

You can get COVID 19 more than once but your body has the ability to fight it much the same as dengue you can get dengue more than once but your body recognises it and fights it 
complications arise if you get another strain of Dengue which are usually continent specific
COVID 19 has the ability to mutate thus complications may arise
TRUE HERD IMMUNITY only comes through vaccination
As stated you can get COVID more than once and in those early stages you are infectious you are a carrier till your body defenses kick in 

 

Currently in Malaysia, It is on full lockdown NO FLIGHTS OUT till 1st April

Only food stores open roads empty etc.

 

NOW HERE is the thing if Malaysia opens up again in 8 days the rest of the world is still infected it begins again so without a unified approach all this lockdown business is negligible.

Thailands numbers go up every day Open the border with Thailand bang

Indonesia the same and of course on the 1st the Mosques will be jam packed

BACK TO SQUARE 1.

 

This goes for every nation currently on lockdown Australia NZ if you reopen you have to implement border controls with those nations who have not taken control.

& YES GLOBALLY we can see the difference less human activity has on the environment Chinas notoriously bad pollution has all but disappeared If only the same could be said for Chiang Mai it appears the virus has no effect on Thailand 
Thailand will operate as a pass on zone it has not closed its doors the virus numbers still climb 
Chinas domestic infections are NIL but new cases come from abroad 
The sheer numbers of visitors to Thailand means it will be a place of contagion pass on 
Every nation globally should ban all traffic from Thailand and anyone who has visited 
There is no point to 14 day isolation if you have been through two or three airports sat on a plane then perhaps a train or bus 


 

[saengd]

1 minute ago, Henryford said:

Do we know if they have. You only know about the spread if many people are tested and deaths reported as Corona related. Is that happening in Thailand.  If you don't test, then no problem !

6,500 people falling sick and being hospitalized would show up in the community, it didn't.

[FarFlungFalang]

54 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

If anything. Thailand is aiming for Herd Compliance

I think most of the world seem to aiming for this with the introduction of new laws/measures to "control the situation" at the same time stripping away individual rights and freedoms based upon expert health advice which is threatening to plunge the civilised world into economic hardships with unforeseen consequences which I think could get "out of control" and make the cure worse than the disease.Like a lot of new "laws and measures" once implemented seem to hang around to be used for purposes for which they were not intended. 

[madmitch]

Thailand's bureaucracy and often archaic working practices are going to exacerbate this situation.

 

This morning I drove a relative to Thanachart Bank in Phuket. Why? Because she wanted a moratorioum on her car repayments. It couldn't be done online, it couldn't be done over the phone, it couldnt even be done at a branch office. There must have been a few hundred people waiting outside that bank at 8:30, all waiting to go inside to suspend their loan repayments! Fortunately I only drove her there and hadn't agreed to wait with her.

 

On the drive I saw several truckloads of Burmese consruction workers, loaded into the back like cattle, some wearing masks, some sporting yellow powder. Now if its herd immunity they want, this is where to start.

 

Few people here are set up with online banking meaning bill payments have to be done at branches or the 7-Elevens, which will become even busier with the closure of so many other shops. You need to visit Government  offices for the most minor issues; for example, we pay room tax for our guesthouse, which has to be paid in the OrBorJor office by the 10th of every month in cash. Immigration offices have been covered elsewhere as has the lack of forethought in creating crowds at bus depots, or announcing border closures the day before, forcing now unemployed migrant workers to join the throng in trying to leave the country or risk being stuck here with no job and no income.

 

Of course, Thais like to break the rules, mainly down to the lax law enforcement, and who's to say that a little tea money won't allow areas where large crowds congregate continue to open their doors. I also doubt they will close the temples, some of which attract very large crowds every day, no doubt praying for an end to this. Try telling these worshippers they'd be better off at home.

 

Of course, this isn't limited to Thailand but Thailand is where I've lived for a long time and it's sad to see what's happening now and to think about what might happen in the very near future, especially as so much unnecessary contact could be avoided.

 

 

 

[petedk]

1 hour ago, Canuck1966 said:

I live in a small village near the beach Chaam and the tannoy last night told everyone to stay inside as a woman from 7/11 had died of Whu flu

Strange because the announcement of another death says it is a 70 year old male from Samut Prakarn.

If what you say is true then maybe there are more deaths than announced.

[petedk]

3 hours ago, Drax said:

Someone I know died of coronavirus + bacterial infection last night here in Thailand.... Not on news yet. He had been in ITC for 10 days now. Man this is getting serious. He did work on a nightclub. I don’t wanna mention the name due to defamation laws but it’s not the thonglor one. This means this virus is more spreading than we think. 

The announcement of the second death says a 70 year old male from Samut Prakarn.

Is that the one you know?

 

Another poster claimed someone died in Chaam.

 

I have just spoken to a friend who has to undergo 14 days quarantine because she is an instrucor at a bank. One of the students is showing signs of Covid-19 and is waiting for the results of the test.

 

Is there a cover up or are these deaths just rumours?

It is worth checking the different social media sites.