How the virus spread - great interactive showing that Thailand was the number 1 destination for outbound Wuhan tourists before they locked it down

[tomster]

This is really well put together from the New York times, it's clearly designed to bash Trump but it shows that Bangkok had thousands of visitors from the epicenter of the virus before Wuhan was locked down:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

 

Wonder why there wasn't an outbreak here, must be the hot weather or something.

[pixelaoffy]

There may yet be a delayed spike from the Wuhan influx! And to think they all had special welcoming immigration lanes at the airport as they came in with the killer virus

[OneMoreFarang]

5 hours ago, tomster said:

This is really well put together from the New York times, it's clearly designed to bash Trump

Should we avoid telling the truth because otherwise Trump and his supporters think someone is bashing them?

He is the idiot who denied reality for far too long.<snip>

[tomster]

27 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

There may yet be a delayed spike from the Wuhan influx! And to think they all had special welcoming immigration lanes at the airport as they came in with the killer virus

Why would it be delayed?

 

It's super contagious and spreads rapidly through populations as can be seen in Europe - what would hold it back for months in Thailand which was exposed to the highest level of infected inbound tourists from Wuhan anywhere in the World?

[Proboscis]

5 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Should we avoid telling the truth because otherwise Trump and his supporters think someone is bashing them?

He is the idiot who denied reality for far too long.<snip>

I saw an interview with a White House Trade Official on CNN. All the guy could do is claim that the media was trying to frighten the citizens and he went on with a critique of how Obama dealt with the minor outbreak of a much less contagious disease back in 2009. He answered no question in any direct way and then complained when the interviewer interrupted his spiel that she was not allowing him to answer (a question she had not asked!).

 

Usually in such disaster scenarios, the opportunity to interact with the media should be grasped with both hands. People prefer the straight talk. If you downplay something like this, you make people frightened, much more frightened, when it becomes apparent that things are much worse than the government has been letting on.

 

Remember Churchill's speech to the British at the beginning of World War 2: "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil tears and sweat." He told it to them straight and the people followed him into the jaws of hell.

[ehs818]

I had a discussion just this morning with a well educated Thai friend. We both agreed that since the Chinese do those all inclusive type of tours, with only pre-planned visits to specific Chinese owned businesses, that there is limited interaction between the Chinese and the Thais. If you are part of their vertically organized tours, you may be at risk. But those that are not involved have very little, if any, interaction the the Chinese visiting here.

[wombat]

with all due respect to sensationalism in journalism, if the header on this thread were true then WS would be ground zero for Coronavirus in Asia.
 

Edited March 27, 2020 by wombat

[tomster]

9 minutes ago, wombat said:

with all due respect if the header on this thread were true then WS would be ground zero for Coronavirus in Asia.
 

What or where is WS? 

[scubascuba3]

26 minutes ago, ehs818 said:

I had a discussion just this morning with a well educated Thai friend. We both agreed that since the Chinese do those all inclusive type of tours, with only pre-planned visits to specific Chinese owned businesses, that there is limited interaction between the Chinese and the Thais. If you are part of their vertically organized tours, you may be at risk. But those that are not involved have very little, if any, interaction the the Chinese visiting here.

Ok how about the Thais involved with those tours? or the hotels? not 1 case in Pattaya, very strange.

 

There was a report of a large increase in pneumonia cases of 3,000, but that died a death

Edited March 27, 2020 by scubascuba3

[tomster]

5 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Ok how about the Thais involved with those tours? or the hotels? not 1 case in Pattaya, very strange.

 

There was a report of a large increase in pneumonia cases of 3,000, but that died a death

Would be very interesting to know the last few years stats for viral pneumonia in Jan and Feb (compared to this year) for Bangkok, Pattaya and Chiang Mai. 

 

But as with all things Coronavirus, it's very hard to get figures like these, you only get known infectuons and deaths, which are utterly useless without knowing total infections in the country and how the death rates for viral pneumonia compare to previous years. 

[Brickbat]

Buying Opportunity. Always look on the bright side of life! 

[justin case]

the virus did not get the correct visa to enter thailand, so had to go back a few times to wuhan, but than finally showed up and is doing great now, ask the PM

 

????

[Pedrogaz]

There were 5 direct flights from Wuhan to Thailand everyday....perhaps 1500 people a day all through December and all through January when it was spreading like a wildfire through Wuhan but people didn't all have symptoms. 

It stretches the credulity somewhat to hear that we have only 1000 cases here in Thailand...were the tourists from Wuhan in December and January in isolation here in Thailand??????

[Isaan sailor]

Why can’t we identify Patient #1 from Wuhan?  It would be a tremendous help for vaccine scientists and researchers worldwide.  CCP has been largely uncooperative.

[Enoon]

45 minutes ago, pdtokyo said:

As earlier posts mentioned ... if groups were part of regimented tours, bussed and accomodated together with embedded guides etc then spread patterns would not be typical.

 

 

 

Didn't want to sign up to yet another site so didn't look at the NYT graphic.

 

The Speedboat Trip.

 

20 Wuhan tourists take a speedboat trip. 3 Thai crew on the boat.

 

Next trip is a mixed group of other foreign tourists.

 

Next trip is a Wuhan group.

 

And then another mixed group.

 

3 Thais interact with the Chinese and touch the same handrails.

 

40 foreign tourists touch the same handrails and interact with the Thais.

 

For Speedboat read any other tourist activity/structure/attraction/mode of transport that received Chinese and foreign tourists.

 

That's how it got around the world so quick, in such numbers, before showing it's hand in Thailand.

 

(While the relatively small, early showing in Thailand, attracted little attention)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Enoon

[scubascuba3]

57 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

There were 5 direct flights from Wuhan to Thailand everyday....perhaps 1500 people a day all through December and all through January when it was spreading like a wildfire through Wuhan but people didn't all have symptoms. 

It stretches the credulity somewhat to hear that we have only 1000 cases here in Thailand...were the tourists from Wuhan in December and January in isolation here in Thailand??????

A possible explanation is:

 

initially little testing was carried out so any pneumonia deaths were classed as just that. The virus is now rife with only the severe cases ending up in hospital and being tested hence the small number, the good news is there may be decent herd immunity already, which other countries suspect also.

 

Unfortunately the economies are being killed in each country, the biggest <deleted> up since time began

Edited March 27, 2020 by scubascuba3

[hobz]

Me and my GF and LOTS of people in Chiang Mai got a nasty flu in december 2019.... was it just a cold-season flu or covid19? who knows...

[Odysseus123]

4 minutes ago, hobz said:

Me and my GF and LOTS of people in Chiang Mai got a nasty flu in december 2019.... was it just a cold-season flu or covid19? who knows...

Now THAT is an interesting question...

[Nanaplaza666]

3 hours ago, ehs818 said:

I had a discussion just this morning with a well educated Thai friend. We both agreed that since the Chinese do those all inclusive type of tours, with only pre-planned visits to specific Chinese owned businesses, that there is limited interaction between the Chinese and the Thais. If you are part of their vertically organized tours, you may be at risk. But those that are not involved have very little, if any, interaction the the Chinese visiting here.

How about when the tours end at around 17:00 and they are spreading to entertainment venus etc. etc . 

[Nanaplaza666]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Why can’t we identify Patient #1 from Wuhan?  It would be a tremendous help for vaccine scientists and researchers worldwide.  CCP has been largely uncooperative.

It's called patient "ZERO" but ok i know what you mean ????

[peterrabbit]

I think it was here in Pattaya in October.

 

On 31st October (Halloween) I started to become ill with a headache and sore throat.(No I didn't party on Halloween) The sore throat was really strange in that it was right at the bottom of my throat, below the Adam's Apple, which is the first time I had experienced this and quickly progressed to me virtually losing my voice. It seemed to be coming up from the lungs rather than down from the mouth.

 

The next day it progressed into a chesty non productive cough, fever, aches/pains and a tight chest and a range of flu type symptoms. I thought it was just the flu/heavy cold and after a week I started to get better, but then without warning, it came back worse than before and put me in bed for 2 days. 

 

Then I went to the doctors because I thought it might be something serious like Sars or Mers and was also worried incase it would turn into bronchitis. (NB I had a pneumonia vaccination in 2018 so was immune).  The doctor didn't know what it was but prescribed a bag full of medicines and advised me to go to the hospital if it didn't get better. She confirmed that it wasn't bacterial but virol.

 

All this month (November) the main persistent symptom was a chesty non productive cough and breathlessness, which lasted the full month! 

 

I never had a runny nose but did have bad headaches, stuffiness, fever, aches and pains, exhaustion, loss of taste, loss of appetite etc etc which would come and go in different combinations and severity throughout the month. The symptoms kept on coming back just when I thought I was getting over it.

 

I eventually became symptom free at the beginning of December (total of 34 days) which is a hell of a long time to have the flu!

 

The Mrs and kid were relatively unaffected suffering slight cold like symptoms for a short period.

 

In October 2019 there was no such thing as Covid-19, but with hindsight, looking back at what I had it could well have been Covid-19. 

 

Not taking any chances though, in case it wasnt Covid-19, but at the earliest opportunity, when they become widely available, I want to take the antibody test to see if I have in fact had it already.

 

In the meantime though its "batten down the hatches" time!

 

 

 

 

[earlinclaifornia]

38 minutes ago, hobz said:

Me and my GF and LOTS of people in Chiang Mai got a nasty flu in december 2019.... was it just a cold-season flu or covid19? who knows...

Also in December 2019 My house hold and relatives were hospitalized being told it was HN1. Me and the seven year old were spared.

[Max69xl]

9 hours ago, pixelaoffy said:

There may yet be a delayed spike from the Wuhan influx! And to think they all had special welcoming immigration lanes at the airport as they came in with the killer virus

How many have died in Thailand from pneumonia the last 2 months? 

[berrec]

1 hour ago, pdtokyo said:

Yes, it is well put together, thanks for posting it, but why so Trump-defensive? ... i know he needs defending badly* but i just eyeballed the article and only saw one verbatim quote from POTUS close to the end ... and it wasn't even his most blatantly dumb quote!

 

I know there are many talanted people on NYT staff, if it was designed to bash him, they would have done a far better job. But once again, thanks for posting.

 

 

* or maybe not, US Gallup poll Tuesday has 60% of Americans saying he's doing a good job with the virus

Anything the NYT puts out is Trump bashing, been at it for 3.5 years and then some....otherwise they could not survive without Trump to criticize.... talented in what ????

[hydraides]

I think the interesting part is: There hasn't been to my knowledge (yet) been anything like the scenes we've seen in Italian hospitals

 

If there was a large outbreak in a Thai city and hospitals could not cope........videos would flood LINE and Facebook

 

Thailand's healthcare theoretically should be reeling much more thans italy's, spain's etc at this point in time ....But its not! (Due hundreds/thousands) of potential seed spreaders who arrived from Wuhan spread all over Thailand)

 

Maybe the weather DOES really play apart in reducing the outbreak significantly 

Edited March 27, 2020 by hydraides

[Greenside]

Up here in Chiang Mai there is clearly a level of immunity that we've built up from ingesting all that PM2.5 rubbish for the past few years.  That's the answer to the strangely low number of local cases so far.

 

Just kidding.

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, peterrabbit said:

I think it was here in Pattaya in October.

 

On 31st October (Halloween) I started to become ill with a headache and sore throat.(No I didn't party on Halloween) The sore throat was really strange in that it was right at the bottom of my throat, below the Adam's Apple, which is the first time I had experienced this and quickly progressed to me virtually losing my voice. It seemed to be coming up from the lungs rather than down from the mouth.

 

The next day it progressed into a chesty non productive cough, fever, aches/pains and a tight chest and a range of flu type symptoms. I thought it was just the flu/heavy cold and after a week I started to get better, but then without warning, it came back worse than before and put me in bed for 2 days. 

 

Then I went to the doctors because I thought it might be something serious like Sars or Mers and was also worried incase it would turn into bronchitis. (NB I had a pneumonia vaccination in 2018 so was immune).  The doctor didn't know what it was but prescribed a bag full of medicines and advised me to go to the hospital if it didn't get better. She confirmed that it wasn't bacterial but virol.

 

All this month (November) the main persistent symptom was a chesty non productive cough and breathlessness, which lasted the full month! 

 

I never had a runny nose but did have bad headaches, stuffiness, fever, aches and pains, exhaustion, loss of taste, loss of appetite etc etc which would come and go in different combinations and severity throughout the month. The symptoms kept on coming back just when I thought I was getting over it.

 

I eventually became symptom free at the beginning of December (total of 34 days) which is a hell of a long time to have the flu!

 

The Mrs and kid were relatively unaffected suffering slight cold like symptoms for a short period.

 

In October 2019 there was no such thing as Covid-19, but with hindsight, looking back at what I had it could well have been Covid-19. 

 

Not taking any chances though, in case it wasnt Covid-19, but at the earliest opportunity, when they become widely available, I want to take the antibody test to see if I have in fact had it already.

 

In the meantime though its "batten down the hatches" time!

 

 

 

 

How did you catch it? come in contact with Chinese?

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

How about when the tours end at around 17:00 and they are spreading to entertainment venus etc. etc . 

and let's not forget the large number of South Korean infections and they love walking street and didn't spread to one girl... hard to believe

[Mick501]

NYT would be rejoicing in this catastrophe as it affords them an avenue to attack Trump.  The deaths of thousands are inconsequential to NYT "journalists."

[Muzzique]

11 hours ago, tomster said:

Wonder why there wasn't an outbreak here

I wonder that too. My friends are currently seeing people drop like flies all around them now with bad coughs and breathing difficulties. Probably just hay fever or so the government would have us believe. Epidemic? There's no epidemic here.