Explaining the Thai resilience to the virus

[GordyS]

11 minutes ago, Yinn said:

The UK coronavirus death toll has risen by 209 in 24 hours from 1,019 to 1,228. A total of 127,737 people have now been tested for coronavirus, with 19,522 positive results.

Edge Health, a UK health care data analysis company, revealed that while the official figure of coronavirus cases stood at 10,000 on March 26, the company's estimated true figure for infections in the UK was1,614,505.

 

With widespread testing not yet available in Britain and swabs only being given to those in hospital and some NHS critical care staff, there could be thousands who have COVID-19 and are not aware of it, the study suggests.

 

Those with milder symptoms who are not admitted to hospital are also not accounted for in official figures. 

•  

Only 17,000 tested in Thailand and 8,000 of those still haven't got results!

That's 9,000 net less another 2,000 who are still sick but have gone home

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/file/situation/situation-no86-290363_3.pdf

Edited March 30, 2020 by GordyS

[sead]

Over medication.  In thailand you meant for sure........

[samsensam]

2 hours ago, Mattd said:

I don't think it is cultural, it is economics.

Most Thais that can afford it run to the doctors at the slightest sign of anything wrong with them, the doctor hands over a bag of assorted colour pills and all are happy.

Hospitals and pharmacies are lucrative businesses.

 

that's correct, the last thing a thai wants to hear is; 'take paracetamol, rest in bed and take plenty of liquids until you feel better', they want lots of pills, and feel the doctor has not done their job if they don't get the pills. i see antibiotics prescribed for virus infections all the time, the doctors must know it's pointless but they want happy customers.

[GordyS]

Thai doctors give out antibiotics like they are sweets.

If you look in any Thai house there is a plethora of useless (and probably fake) medicine

[samsensam]

10 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

1. I think many countries are just lying through their teeth about numbers. Thai lying ? 100%

2. Countries with high death rates probably are testing more. Thai high testing ? Nope.

3. High death rates in other countries as higher % old people - Thai have many old people ? Nope, they kill them off as fast as possible through lack of social support.

 

My currently prediction is that tv will show more people will die from forthcoming lack of food and food rioting than stated dead by virus

 

for sure fewer people living with underlying medical conditions because there isn't the health care system to keep them alive, so the virus can't come along and finish them off.

[Pravda]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

If these workers have tested positive, they have (normally) been added to the daily total of new infections. 

 

Where did you read that private hospitals don't report their cases? 

 

Why would you want these specific cases to make the news? Why are they different from the other cases? 

 

Maybe you are right. Maybe they are entertaining the sheep by reporting on TV that a Somchai in Buriram got a covid while a major bank in the city center somehow skipped the news. 

 

But lets use a bit of logic here. Most of the early cases were focused on a boxing match that infected at least 150 people. Thailand now has 1500 cases, so 10% of infections came from that match. Considering that wife is aware of at least 5 factories (not including a bank) where staff was infected.....

 

 

..... well I am bored to type. You do the math,

[Antonymous]

46 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There have been studies to try and explain why in Thailand 2500 die of the flu each year and in the UK 17000.

 

One thing they mention was that the data is unreliable. If people don't test and put on a death certificate 'flu' because it wasn't checked, then influenza mortality rate will be very low.

 

But yes it is a mystery.

 

Anyone have any stats on the number or percentage of Thais who receive flu vaccinations each year cf the UK?

 

May be a reverse correlation? Just saying.

[Brunolem]

Hospitals at 30 baht, where most Thais go, do not give away medicine so easily. 

 

On top of that, you may have noticed that the dosages are far lower in Thailand, than what you get in the West. 

 

For example, a medicine with, say 100 mg of any given substance, has only 10 mg in Thailand. 

 

This is why, when I have to take medicine here, I sometime need to swallow five pills at a time, when the Thais only take one... and I am not five times bigger than them... 

 

Finally, it is well known that Westerners, especially Americans, are addicted to medicine to the point of bankrupting their healthcare system. 

 

Thai people and their neighbors do not stuff themselves with anti depressants, pain killers, and the likes... 

 

 

[stuandjulie]

Simple really, the Gov tells lies, easy to keep the numbers down, limit the number of tests and then lie anyway

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Anyone have any stats on the number or percentage of Thais who receive flu vaccinations each year cf the UK?

 

May be a reverse correlation? Just saying.

Yes, in this study it says that less than 1% of Thai people get influenza vaccinations.

 

"Despite the widespread adoption of seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations in middle-income countries that have sufficient economic and public health resources to support vaccination programs, in Thailand seasonal influenza vaccine has been administered to <1% of the population annually"

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

[Odysseus123]

There is NO Thai extra resilience to the virus.

 

Might as well play whackamole......

[sapson]

Thailand I believe had the most visitors from Wuhan province yet some of the lowest positive rates, if things just dont seem right especially in Thailand they probably arent.

 

Phuket hierarchy were allegedly holding back results for weeks to protect the income not the people and similar scenario across tourist areas.

 

Many accounts of medical staff nationwide warned to be cautious about the release of information.

 

The pattern of release of daily numbers always struck me as odd as a convoluted set of figures for a gradual introduction of the severity of the situation, would like to see exactly where the daily new cases come from.

 

As for testing, if the people returning now to the provinces are forced to pay a few thousand baht for a test if they have a cough and fever quite common anyway in the villages in 38c heat are they going to rush to a hospital or try and sit it out and spend the funds on feeding the family.? So testing is not widespread yet.

 

Also this site is censored monitored we are fed what is passed okay to be newsworthy.

 

knowing what the real head honcho is doing at this time of crisis is quite enlightening, google is your friend but it would never make a news item on here.

 

Finally my nearest pharmacy can oblige with all manner of drugs,,,,,,  but a face mask! still not available, Team Thailands finest seem to struggle with that one!

[tomster]

3 hours ago, Pravda said:

 

 

My new wife works in sales for a big Japanese manufacturing supplier. Their clients are just about every major manufacturing company that exists in Thailand. Her job is to go around in her car, visit the clients and close the deals (no nasty jokes with this serious topic pls:) )

 

Anyway, just about every factory that she visits (and there are many) has at least 1 or more covid cases. Where she works near silom a major bank located in her building had an outbreak.

 

None of this was reported in the news. I asked if these cases are reported to the government and it was a firm no because all of the people infected were tested by themselves in private hospitals.

 

Resilience my behind.

Absolutely spot on. Thailand had more visitors from Wuhan than other country in the World in the run up to the airports closing, it simply isn't possible for the virus not to be endemic here now. It would literally break the laws of physics, it isn't possible.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

 

The Japanese have also figured out that is you spook the population the sheeple all go to hospital and demand testing, that overwhelms the healthcare system and makes the spread of the virus and viral loading potential much worse:

 

https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0080

 

What you need to do is treat the symptoms aggressively and play down the public perception of it, exactly and the way Japan and other smart countries have done:

 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/

 

The Thai Government have been very smart about it imho - they have chosen to not get caught up in the shutdown madness. They only started reporting multiple cases when they had to step in and start helping the population that were screwed after the shutdown of the tourist sector, if that hadn't happened you can bet your life there would have been almost no reported cases of CV in Thailand.

 

Testing appears to only be available to people willing to pay, then I presume you get quarantined as a way of discouraging people from doing it (may be wrong on the automatic quarantine, does anybody know if that is right?). Anyway, you are only going to get tested if you pay, which most people can't/won't.

 

In my opinion history will prove the the Thai Government right on this, downplaying the whole thing and not spooking the population is the way to go.

[Odysseus123]

2 minutes ago, tomster said:

Absolutely spot on. Thailand had more visitors from Wuhan than other country in the World in the run up to the airports closing, it simply isn't possible for the virus not to be endemic here now. It would literally break the laws of physics, it isn't possible.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

 

The Japanese have also figured out that is you spook the population the sheeple all go to hospital and demand testing, that overwhelms the healthcare system and makes the spread of the virus and viral loading potential much worse:

 

https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0080

 

What you need to do is treat the symptoms aggressively and play down the public perception of it, exactly and the way Japan and other smart countries have done:

 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/

 

The Thai Government have been very smart about it imho - they have chosen to not get caught up in the shutdown madness. They only started reporting multiple cases when they had to step in and start helping the population that were screwed after the shutdown of the tourist sector, if that hadn't happened you can bet your life there would have been almost no reported cases of CV in Thailand.

 

Testing appears to only be available to people willing to pay, then I presume you get quarantined as a way of discouraging people from doing it (may be wrong on the automatic quarantine, does anybody know if that is right?). Anyway, you are only going to get tested if you pay, which most people can't/won't.

 

In my opinion history will prove the the Thai Government right on this, downplaying the whole thing and not spooking the population is the way to go.

What a load of codswallop.

[Antonymous]

20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, in this study it says that less than 1% of Thai people get influenza vaccinations.

 

"Despite the widespread adoption of seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations in middle-income countries that have sufficient economic and public health resources to support vaccination programs, in Thailand seasonal influenza vaccine has been administered to <1% of the population annually"

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4605410/

Well done for digging that out.

 

This is definitely a correlation that should be taken into consideration when comparing infections and death stats across all nations.

 

 

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

yes there is some credence to the idea that they are closer to the ground and are more resistance to infection, perhaps have a unique diet of spices, children walking in waist deep flood water without getting sick, eating filthy food.

If the virus enters your airway and comes across a cell with the correct receptor (which it will) then it will enter that cell and reproduce, at which point you're infected.

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by ukrules

[Chazar]

5 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The populations of the developing countries are more resilient than the Western populations because their organisms have not been weakened by decades of over medication!

 

What do you think?

I  think youre  talking  rubbish

[Chazar]

4 hours ago, JaiMaai said:

Given the suitcase full of drugs that I've been given every time I've seen a doctor here, I'll have to disagree!

in fact by doling out antibiotics for "anything"  they have  made things considerably worse.

[Logosone]

It's not a far-fetched idea, that Asians have a stronger immune system, not just because we saw with the Vietnamese defeating the US in the Vietnam war enduring conditions few Westerners could have endured, but there is some genetic basis for different ethnic groups having different immune systems:

 

https://www.pasteur.fr/en/africans-and-europeans-have-genetically-different-immune-systems-and-neanderthals-had-something-do

 

However the French here are suggesting that Europeans are especially blessed in terms of immune system, less so Africans:

 

"Their research reveals that Neanderthals did indeed pass on mutations influencing the control of the immune response to Europeans, including mutations that modulate gene expression in response to viral infections."

 

Other research would appear to indicate that Asians are equally blessed in terms of immune system, as Europeans, whereas it is Africans that got the short straw:

 

"By analyzing the levels of various inflammatory markers in blood samples taken before treatment, the scientists showed that immune responses of Asians and Europeans were similar to each other, but different from those of Africans. This difference was caused by ethnic variation in the patients' genetic make-up and was not related to the strain of TB bacterium that the patients were infected with."

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/immune-system/scientists-discover-ethnic-differences-immune-response-tb-bacterium

 

It's quite remarkable that the strain of the disease was not as important as ethnicity in terms of the response.

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Logosone

[Dumbastheycome]

I have my own theory. I am (self) convinced  that Thailand  has been exposed to an early variant of this virus maybe way back mid 2019 or earlier carried in by the massive influx of Chinese tourists. Obviously similarly so in China. But because it was a mild variant that escaped attention by mimicking other infections such as influenza  or other respitory infection. During that time it  imbued a degree of  "herd immunity".

Late in  2019 it  mutated into a more serious and infectious variant that created the cluster in Wuhan which ultimately caused identification as  Covid-19.

The  Chinese response although credited for "flattening" the curve seems to have magically virtually stopped  infection in it's tracks with almost all new cases detected in offshore arrivals. A remarkable result in a population so large and also so internally mobile at that  holiday period in China. 80  something thousand  out of near 1.5 Billion ( identified).?

Perhaps the prior silent immunization was as beneficial if not  more so? And equally so for Thailand which defies expectations to  large degree?

Western countries have been harder hit because it  has  experienced mostly the  more virulent strain first off due to missing the possible/partial immunity of the  original at a time when the potential Chinese  tourist  numbers were likely  depressed  due to the  political sentiment generated  by  trade issues at least in the US. 

I am well aware that my opinion is only speculative  but ..I am unable to  dismiss the suspicion I have  had  this virus already back in  early January given symptoms I have  never experienced  quite like  before.

I have also noted  similar  suspicions  by a few members of  TVF.

While I would  hope my personal theory is  valid for Thailand  where I am now  that is of little consolation  for my friends and  family  in other  parts of the world.

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

The "resilience" is likely to be inefficient testing and reporting. Today I got first message about somebody I know having 39 degrees fever and coughing and feeling a heavy chest. Not included in any stats whatsoever. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by DrTuner

[anterian]

Much Thai food features coconut, this might be a clue 
Coconut oil (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/…/Coconut-and-COVID-1…)

[Youlike]

5 hours ago, Brunolem said:

The populations of the developing countries are more resilient than the Western populations because their organisms have not been weakened by decades of over medication!

 

The western population has weakened themselves by getting fat, living too hygienic, getting too old.....

[Sheryl]

I think it is demographics pure and simple.

 

Average age of deaths in the west is over 80.

 

Any comparison of death rates needs to be adjusted for age. Very, very few cases to date of COVID in Thais over 70 let alone over 80.

 

We may start to see more elderly cases in the wake of the worker exodus to the country side.

 

It is also possible viral loads in most patients are lower from the get-go due to the pattern of transmission and relatively low population density.

 

Note that in Thailand and elsewhere the denominator for  fatalities is actually unknown and it will be some time before it can be reliably estimated.

[FarFlungFalang]

Thailand's resilience explained;

                  Cases          Deaths.

Philippines	1,546	+128	78	+7	42	1,426	1	14	0.7	Jan 29
Thailand	1,524	+136	9	+2	229	1,286	11	22	0.1	Jan 12
Indonesia	1,414	+129	122	+8	75	1,217		5	0.4	Mar 01

Edited March 30, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, anterian said:

Much Thai food features coconut, this might be a clue 
Coconut oil (https://www.nutraingredients-asia.com/…/Coconut-and-COVID-1…)

Very doubtful. 

[Odysseus123]

It's called testing and reporting.

 

Thailand is a gigantic cloudcuckooland,

 

There is NO extra special "resilience" in Thailand.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Odysseus123

[NanLaew]

4 hours ago, Pravda said:

 

 

My new wife works in sales for a big Japanese manufacturing supplier. Their clients are just about every major manufacturing company that exists in Thailand. Her job is to go around in her car, visit the clients and close the deals (no nasty jokes with this serious topic pls:) )

 

Anyway, just about every factory that she visits (and there are many) has at least 1 or more covid cases. Where she works near silom a major bank located in her building had an outbreak.

 

None of this was reported in the news. I asked if these cases are reported to the government and it was a firm no because all of the people infected were tested by themselves in private hospitals.

 

Resilience my behind.

 

What did your old wife do?

[justaphase]

The numbers are low because they're only testing about 700 a day. On 26th March there were 5800 waiting for tests.

Easy to keep the 100 or so cases a day consistent. ????

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Just an opinion, but the Thai diet heavy in spices could be knocking out one transmission route.

I think Thai's diet of number manipulation might be knocking out the transmission of the truth.