One thing that is confusing to me about COvid19

[nobodysfriend]

1 hour ago, blackcab said:

 

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

----> " . Although the genetic relationships among sampled viruses are quite clear, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of transmission dates and in reconstruction of geographic spread. "<----

 

If I read the graphics correctly the virus has developed many slightly different strains already ... even the ' american ' strain of Covid 19  is a little different from the european strain ...?

 

More mutations possible ...

 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by nobodysfriend

[Enoon]

9 hours ago, Vigilante said:

I have the same question for all the other 'plagues' that have befallen us, starting with Sars-1 back in 2002.

How come they disappeared never to be heard of again?

There are no cures or vaccines for most of them Sars-1, MERS, h1n1, Ebola etc etc

 

They haven't "disappeared never to be heard of again".

 

Over 2200 dead from Ebola (66% fatality rate).......this year.

 

2020:

Disease Outbreak News (DONs)

Latest DONs

• Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
  2 April 2020
• Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
  26 March 2020
• Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
  19 March 2020
• Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) – Qatar
  12 March 2020
• Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
  12 March 2020

 

2019:

https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/2019/en/

 

"In 2015, 16 people in the Western United States developed plague, including 2 cases in Yosemite National Park. These US cases usually occur in rural northern New Mexico, northern Arizona, southern Colorado, California, southern Oregon, and far western Nevada."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague

 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Enoon

[NoshowJones]

10 hours ago, jimmjam said:

Where did you read this?

They have allowed some things to start again, they still have measures in place, the lockdown isnt completely lifted.

Borders arent open, they have restricted people flying in to reduce re-infection.

One problem they have is people from neighbouring countries trying to get into china illegally at the moment.

People trying to get in to China???? I would have thought they would be busting a gut to get out.

[Ketyo]

China did the following 

 

- Had 1800 teams of 5 people each doing contact tracing after testing. Thats 90,000 people on test and trace.... contacts were quarantined or hospitalised

- Had a harder lockdown than many places for people in general; people tightly restricted to homes and all but essential businesses shuttered; immediately banned gatherings

- Shut down all public transportation and even private transport in heavily infected areas

- Ramped up their health facilities quickly... after being overwhelmed in Jan and Feb they had enough critical care capacity by March

- Insist on things like wearing masks when people have to be in proximity

- May have been using experimental/uncommon medical techniques not available in other places; for examples Favipiravir, and using transfusions of plasma from people who have recovered

 

As far as I know, countries such as the UK are just doing a few of these things  and even then only partially

Edited April 7, 2020 by Ketyo

[tifino]

47 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

11 hours ago, jimmjam said:

Where did you read this?

They have allowed some things to start again, they still have measures in place, the lockdown isnt completely lifted.

Borders arent open, they have restricted people flying in to reduce re-infection.

One problem they have is people from neighbouring countries trying to get into china illegally at the moment.

People trying to get in to China???? I would have thought they would be busting a gut to get out.

sounds more like fake news coming out of the CCP again!

 - they will say anything, to make themselves think that they are above the rest of the world... 

 

[gargamon]

33 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

China did the following 

 

- Had 1800 teams of 5 people each doing contact tracing after testing. Thats 90,000 people on test and trace.... contacts were quarantined or hospitalised

- Had a harder lockdown than many places for people in general; people tightly restricted to homes and all but essential businesses shuttered; immediately banned gatherings

- Shut down all public transportation and even private transport in heavily infected areas

- Ramped up their health facilities quickly... after being overwhelmed in Jan and Feb they had enough critical care capacity by March

- Insist on things like wearing masks when people have to be in proximity

- May have been using experimental/uncommon medical techniques not available in other places; for examples Favipiravir, and using transfusions of plasma from people who have recovered

 

As far as I know, countries such as the UK are just doing a few of these things  and even then only partially

Exactly. China locked it down so tightly they completely eradicated covid-19 within it's borders. Once they got to the point of no new infections for a number of weeks, there was no virus left there to pass around so the lockdown could be lifted. Now to keep the nasty foreigners from reintroducing it...

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, gargamon said:

China locked it down so tightly they completely eradicated covid-19 within it's borders. Once they got to the point of no new infections for a number of weeks,

That's the claim anyway.

How would we really know?

Edited April 7, 2020 by BritManToo

[Thingamabob]

This is a huge win for China. They already control massive mineral rights (eg lithium, cobalt etc) and territory in Africa and South America, and the western economies sre being decimated by the current lockdowns. 

[Mick501]

Turns out there's a very fast and easy way to reduce new cases to zero.  Just stop testing.

[Mick501]

44 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

China did the following 

 

- Had 1800 teams of 5 people each doing contact tracing after testing. Thats 90,000 people on test and trace.... contacts were quarantined or hospitalised

- Had a harder lockdown than many places for people in general; people tightly restricted to homes and all but essential businesses shuttered; immediately banned gatherings

- Shut down all public transportation and even private transport in heavily infected areas

- Ramped up their health facilities quickly... after being overwhelmed in Jan and Feb they had enough critical care capacity by March

- Insist on things like wearing masks when people have to be in proximity

- May have been using experimental/uncommon medical techniques not available in other places; for examples Favipiravir, and using transfusions of plasma from people who have recovered

 

As far as I know, countries such as the UK are just doing a few of these things  and even then only partially

Need to drop a zero on the math.

[Jaggg88]

11 hours ago, jimmjam said:

Lets not forget, these viruses mutate aswell. This covid virus has already mutated 8 times already i believe.

So it will probably end up having a name change eventually as it is not in its original form.

You are correct. All viruses mutate but it is the most dangerous mutations that don't survive because they kill their host and therefore do not infect further hosts. It is the less dangerous mutations that are more successful as they continue to infect other hosts without killing. This is the basis of herd immunity but unfortunately many hosts have to die before this is achieved.

[stouricks]

4 hours ago, curtklay said:

I laughed too.

Home confinement is making everyone a bit touchy.

Unless they have a nice guitar they bought on Ali Express!   LOL

[natway09]

Only one ?

If you are like me "totally confused" about many things

[CGW]

1 hour ago, possum1931 said:

People trying to get in to China???? I would have thought they would be busting a gut to get out.

People need to work, I will be going ASAP (& safe !)

[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, tifino said:

sounds more like fake news coming out of the CCP again!

 - they will say anything, to make themselves think that they are above the rest of the world... 

 

haha ...  expats trying to get back into Beijing (and other parts of China)... they can not now due to travel restrictions from the West

[FarFlungFalang]

12 hours ago, Vigilante said:

I have the same question for all the other 'plagues' that have befallen us, starting with Sars-1 back in 2002.

How come they disappeared never to be heard of again?

There are no cures or vaccines for most of them Sars-1, MERS, h1n1, Ebola etc etc

 

Basic hygiene and the fact that people didn't spread the viruses until after symptoms became noticeable.Unlike this virus where it appears the virus can be transmitted before symptoms show,making it much harder to stop it's spread.

[tifino]

1 minute ago, rvaviator said:

1 hour ago, tifino said:

sounds more like fake news coming out of the CCP again!

 - they will say anything, to make themselves think that they are above the rest of the world... 

 

haha ...  expats trying to get back into Beijing (and other parts of China)... they can not now due to travel restrictions from the West

yes but do really believe the words coming out of the CCP?? 

 - fake news

 

they want the world to believe that they are the only clean country, and everyone is scrambling out of the gutter to be there

 

 - besides they don't poopoo in their own streets

[runamok27]

1 hour ago, Ketyo said:

China did the following 

 

- Had 1800 teams of 5 people each doing contact tracing after testing. Thats 90,000 people on test and trace.... contacts were quarantined or hospitalised

- Had a harder lockdown than many places for people in general; people tightly restricted to homes and all but essential businesses shuttered; immediately banned gatherings

- Shut down all public transportation and even private transport in heavily infected areas

- Ramped up their health facilities quickly... after being overwhelmed in Jan and Feb they had enough critical care capacity by March

- Insist on things like wearing masks when people have to be in proximity

- May have been using experimental/uncommon medical techniques not available in other places; for examples Favipiravir, and using transfusions of plasma from people who have recovered

 

As far as I know, countries such as the UK are just doing a few of these things  and even then only partially

That's all well and good but the aftermath is telling a much, much different story. Tens of thousands of urns showing up in Hubei for the cremated. What killed all of those people? Hours and hours waiting to pick up dead relatives because the lines at the funeral homes are incredibly long. People who were reporting the truth, suddenly not on this earth anymore. Ground zero residents telling a much different tale of what happened there. Video's of people being forcibly removed from their homes and thrown into cages in the back of pickup trucks. Where did those folks go? With the projections coming out for other countries the numbers China has released are just not believable no matter what they did.

[gargamon]

1 hour ago, Mick501 said:

Turns out there's a very fast and easy way to reduce new cases to zero.  Just stop testing.

That's Trump math. It doesn't work in the real world.

[gargamon]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

That's the claim anyway.

How would we really know?

Well, given the choice of believing the Chinese, or believing Trump, I'll choose the Chinese every time.

[midzo]

14 hours ago, donnacha said:

China got a good look at what happens, figured out roughly which parts of the population would die, and decided that, on balance, they were okay with that.

This is a once-in-a-century opportunity for China. America boomed in the 50's and 60's because they were the only advanced nation whose infrastructure had not been decimated during the war, making them the workshop of the world. China will now be the only country that can return to full production. The Western powers might want to but, because they are supposedly democracies, they cannot get the bodies past their citizens.

So, until an effective vaccine can be mass produced and distributed to everyone, the West will remain paralyzed and China will manufacture their way to world dominance 20 or 30 years earlier than expected.


 

Or Mexico and Eastern Europe may replace China.

 

Forbes article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/01/coronavirus-could-be-the-end-of-china-as-global-manufacturing-hub/amp/

[The Theory]

 

[watthong]

7 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

China has always put the welfare of the country ahead of the welfare of the people.  That is why they hid this disease so long from not only the rest of the world but from the Chinese people themselves.

The people are part, nay, the main part of a country, along with its infrastructure, natural resources, etc. It's an oxymoron to say the least to imply that "country" and "people" are two separate entities. It's like saying to save the jungle we have to kill all the animals inside it. Or in not too distant memory, "we had to destroy the village in order to save it."

 

Fact is, the CPC has always exploited the labor and wealth of the Chinese people for the welfare of its party. And <deleted> the world at large - is more like it.

[ChouDoufu]

15 hours ago, parafareno said:

In china there were so many infected....so many deaths...and now suddenly is gone....they opened everything up etc.....this looks impossible!! there are millions of people there, the virus spreads super quick and easy so how could they get rid of it, so they are opening up the borders? Can somebody explain.....??

there was a youtube video posted here within the past 3-4 days, a foreigner explaining chinese use of 'big data' to fight the virus.  sorry i don't have a link to the original thread.  but it goes a little like this.....

 

the way it works, china is an authoritarian police state with massive investments in internal surveillance.  everything about each citizen is linked to their ID number - passports, bus and train passenger manifests, hospital visits, internet usage, social media, phone calls, bank accounts, school records, online purchases, and a thousand other things i can't even imagine.  their cellphone location is being collected 24/7, matched to surveillance video with facial recognition collected at every street corner, public building, local park, etc.

 

when the virus broke out, they designed a new app for the cellphone to monitor health status, which must be updated every 72 hours.  individuals must show their health status QR-code to access public facilities, banks, shopping malls, school, bus and train stations.  AND the facility will scan and record that individual's code, updating the regional and national databases.

 

anyone that gets sick reports to the hospital, gets scanned, gets tested.  with a positive result, the government can use all this information to track every movement of the individual for the past two weeks of the supposed incubation period, matching that with all individuals they came in contact with, or sat near on a bus, or entered a bank at the same time.  and those people can be tracked to six degrees of kevin bacon, and then it's turtles all the way down.

 

they locked down cities, or even provinces, long enough to stop the spread.  mandatory enforced quarantine.

 

oh, and it also helps that when naughty citizens refuse to stay in quarantine, the cops weld their damn doors shut.  (the welding part i saw on youtube videos, don't know if that actually happened.)

[sirineou]

21 minutes ago, ChouDoufu said:

there was a youtube video posted here within the past 3-4 days, a foreigner explaining chinese use of 'big data' to fight the virus.  sorry i don't have a link to the original thread.  but it goes a little like this.....

 

the way it works, china is an authoritarian police state with massive investments in internal surveillance.  everything about each citizen is linked to their ID number - passports, bus and train passenger manifests, hospital visits, internet usage, social media, phone calls, bank accounts, school records, online purchases, and a thousand other things i can't even imagine.  their cellphone location is being collected 24/7, matched to surveillance video with facial recognition collected at every street corner, public building, local park, etc.

 

when the virus broke out, they designed a new app for the cellphone to monitor health status, which must be updated every 72 hours.  individuals must show their health status QR-code to access public facilities, banks, shopping malls, school, bus and train stations.  AND the facility will scan and record that individual's code, updating the regional and national databases.

 

anyone that gets sick reports to the hospital, gets scanned, gets tested.  with a positive result, the government can use all this information to track every movement of the individual for the past two weeks of the supposed incubation period, matching that with all individuals they came in contact with, or sat near on a bus, or entered a bank at the same time.  and those people can be tracked to six degrees of kevin bacon, and then it's turtles all the way down.

 

they locked down cities, or even provinces, long enough to stop the spread.  mandatory enforced quarantine.

 

oh, and it also helps that when naughty citizens refuse to stay in quarantine, the cops weld their damn doors shut.  (the welding part i saw on youtube videos, don't know if that actually happened.)

In the US we don't need data we have trump

Is this the video?

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by sirineou

[ChouDoufu]

26 minutes ago, sirineou said:

In the US we don't need data we have trump

Is this the video?

nononono!  that one was produced by chinese national television.  it's all very sanitized, and vague as to what data they're using, hardly explaining how they are collecting just about every aspect of every citizen everywhere all the time.

 

i was referring to a video, about 8 minutes long, put out by a foreign blogger.  i think he was in beijing, but not sure. 

 

this short video from the bbc gives an overview:

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by ChouDoufu

[Krataiboy]

15 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Ha sure. This was over the weekend at a park in China.

Looks like an awful lot of UNsocial distancing!

[donnacha]

7 hours ago, Antifreeze said:

Manufacture what to world dominance? There are no customers. 

Oh, people on lockdown are still consumers. Amazon is busier than ever. People are taking the money they would usually spend on restaurants, bars, cafes, concerts, vacations, new cars, dating, hookers etc, and using it to upgrade their home appliances and TVs, anything to make their enforced imprisonment more comfortable. Most "stuff" comes from China and next decade or so will be far more about "stuff" than experiences.

The Western governments won't be able to keep printing money forever but, by the time they come out of lockdown, the balance of power will already have shifted significantly. China will use the money to snap up key Western assets at fire sale prices. The world economies are already entangled, now they will be even more so, making it more difficult for Western governments to propose sanctions or publicly express doubts about the Chinese narrative.

 

I am not criticizing China for pursing their national interest. They have never denied that this is their priority. They would be crazy not to play the hand they have been dealt.

 

 

[donnacha]

2 hours ago, midzo said:

Or Mexico and Eastern Europe may replace China.

 

Forbes article:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/03/01/coronavirus-could-be-the-end-of-china-as-global-manufacturing-hub/amp/

Well, when that article was written, six weeks ago, no one would have guessed that China would decide to shift away from the lockdown strategy so quickly.

Mexico and Eastern Europe could certainly benefit if America and the EU decide that, strategically, it makes more sense to keep their sources of manufactured goods closer to home. I suspect that ultimately, however, it will come down to cost. The reality is that China now has decades of experience of manufacturing at scale. It will be very hard for any region to compete with that.

 

[White Christmas13]

5 hours ago, Mick501 said:

Turns out there's a very fast and easy way to reduce new cases to zero.  Just stop testing.

isn't that what Thailand does?