Are lockdowns worth their costs?

[White Christmas13]

10 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Do you have to go out to make your money or are you a pensioner or otherwise fixed income type person? 

 

I bet I know the answer. 

Well I won't reply to a Trump supporter

[connda]

No they were not.  That vast majority of countries have destroyed their economies as well a that portion of their population who are not career government workers or others with guarenteed employment.  Small business, entrepreneurs, and those working for them as well as the most vulnerable in society have all be thrown under the bus.  More and more studies are surfacing indicating that asymptomatic infection cases are magnitudes higher than CDC/WHO projections which implies that the population is approaching herd-immunity.  The main difference between those who locked down and those who didn't is the former has destroyed their economies and the latter have not.  

[Lacessit]

46 minutes ago, sucit said:

My God, thank you. 

 

It brings great joy to my heart to know there are at least a few of us out there able to use our brains, look at information and think for ourselves. 

 

That is exactly right. Despite what 99.9% of everyone is saying, even many scientists, lockdowns have not been scientifically proven to be effective. In fact, there are new studies that say the worst place to be is inside your home, and out of the sunlight. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

 

That does not mean locking down was a bad decision, it just means it was a guess and we do not know yet how effective it actually is. 

I've noticed in Asia people tell you what they think you want to hear. Perhaps it's also true we only listen to what fits with our own preconceptions.

[chessman]

16 minutes ago, connda said:

More and more studies are surfacing indicating that asymptomatic infection cases are magnitudes higher than CDC/WHO projections which implies that the population is approaching herd-immunity.

Not true... the studies have shown we are not near herd immunity.

[mauGR1]

49 minutes ago, connda said:

No they were not.  That vast majority of countries have destroyed their economies as well a that portion of their population who are not career government workers or others with guarenteed employment.  Small business, entrepreneurs, and those working for them as well as the most vulnerable in society have all be thrown under the bus.  More and more studies are surfacing indicating that asymptomatic infection cases are magnitudes higher than CDC/WHO projections which implies that the population is approaching herd-immunity.  The main difference between those who locked down and those who didn't is the former has destroyed their economies and the latter have not.  

Careful talking common sense, soon you'll be called trumpian, right wing and all sort of names.

[Brunolem]

13 hours ago, connda said:

No they were not.  That vast majority of countries have destroyed their economies as well a that portion of their population who are not career government workers or others with guarenteed employment.  Small business, entrepreneurs, and those working for them as well as the most vulnerable in society have all be thrown under the bus.  More and more studies are surfacing indicating that asymptomatic infection cases are magnitudes higher than CDC/WHO projections which implies that the population is approaching herd-immunity.  The main difference between those who locked down and those who didn't is the former has destroyed their economies and the latter have not.  

Good summary. 

 

I am not sure if humanity is approaching herd immunity, but certainly a large part of it has already got the herd mentality. 

 

And now we discover that Herr Doctor Mengele was not dead after all... he is back on TV every day, explaining how he is going to insert microchips in all the sheep to keep them in line... how interesting... 

 

 

 

 

[mauGR1]

48 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And now we discover that Herr Doctor Mengele was not dead after all... he is back on TV every day, explaining how he is going to insert microchips in all the sheep to keep them in line... how interesting... 

 

Yes, it's very interesting to watch as a show, how many of the population are so brainwashed to believe the media propaganda.

I am relieved that so many of us have their eyes open, but perhaps having open eyes is not enough to stop the process.

This looks like the greatest attempts of social engineering of history, and while i am not against social engineering in principle, this one looks a bit too extreme to me.

Edited April 27, 2020 by mauGR1

[ChipButty]

Imagine lifting the ban on beer like right now, how much money that would raise and how many people would be re employed right down to the delivery drivers it would be 1000's just my thought for the day

[johng]

41 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Yes, it's very interesting to watch as a show, how many of the population are so brainwashed to believe the media propaganda.

It's even worse than "the millennium bug"  remember how the whole would collapse when the computer clocks ticked over from 1999 to 2000 ????

[mauGR1]

18 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Imagine lifting the ban on beer like right now, how much money that would raise and how many people would be re employed right down to the delivery drivers it would be 1000's just my thought for the day

I am also praying all the gods for a beer with friends and a pool table, i am not a heavy drinker but i really miss it.

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, johng said:

It's even worse than "the millennium bug"  remember how the whole would collapse when the computer clocks ticked over from 1999 to 2000 ????

That was indeed a funny joke, but i was on my first trip to Thailand after a life of hard work, too happy to be bothered.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, johng said:

It's even worse than "the millennium bug"  remember how the whole would collapse when the computer clocks ticked over from 1999 to 2000 ????

This millennium bug cost only 50 billion USD, which was considered very big at the time...nowadays it is less than a day of (fake) money printing...the corona bug is not costing billions, but trillions, but who's counting when it's about saving...no, no, not lives, but fortunes...that's what it is all about...

[belfast3]

18 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Careful talking common sense, soon you'll be called trumpian, right wing and all sort of names.

Or supporter of mass genocide.

It has been worrying me recently how blindly people have been following the media and anyone who questions it or exhibits an ounce of common sense is immediately demonised and outcast. 

Even friends at home who I considered open-minded in the past seem to be completely unable to think for themselves lately. Very worrying.

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, belfast3 said:

Or supporter of mass genocide.

It has been worrying me recently how blindly people have been following the media and anyone who questions it or exhibits an ounce of common sense is immediately demonised and outcast. 

Even friends at home who I considered open-minded in the past seem to be completely unable to think for themselves lately. Very worrying.

I blame watching too much tv and an obvious lack of culture and the lack of critical thinking that follows.

[UbonThani]

3 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

Or supporter of mass genocide.

It has been worrying me recently how blindly people have been following the media and anyone who questions it or exhibits an ounce of common sense is immediately demonised and outcast. 

Even friends at home who I considered open-minded in the past seem to be completely unable to think for themselves lately. Very worrying.

Very much so. Totally brainwashed. They call people deniers or murderers etc when people question the motives and somewhat dodgy science.

[Brunolem]

7 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

Or supporter of mass genocide.

It has been worrying me recently how blindly people have been following the media and anyone who questions it or exhibits an ounce of common sense is immediately demonised and outcast. 

Even friends at home who I considered open-minded in the past seem to be completely unable to think for themselves lately. Very worrying.

Somehow, the population always manages to split in two groups: democrats vs republicans, socialists vs capitalists and so on

 

With the covid 19 two new groups are emerging:

 

supporters of the herd immunity

vs

supporters of the herd mentality

 

But unlike the other groups which are generally more or less equal in size, these two groups are not.

 

Members of the second group outnumber those of the first group by at least a factor of ten...which is very worrying for people able to think, but very reassuring for our overlords.

 

After all, as Bertrand Russell once said:

 

"People would sooner die than think, indeed this is what they do"

 

[belfast3]

1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

Somehow, the population always manages to split in two groups: democrats vs republicans, socialists vs capitalists and so on

 

With the covid 19 two new groups are emerging:

 

supporters of the herd immunity

vs

supporters of the herd mentality

 

But unlike the other groups which are generally more or less equal in size, these two groups are not.

 

Members of the second group outnumber those of the first group by at least a factor of ten...which is very worrying for people able to think, but very reassuring for our overlords.

 

After all, as Bertrand Russell once said:

 

"People would sooner die than think, indeed this is what they do"

 

The socialist vrs capitalist debate in this whole scenario has been interesting, I think every billionaire on the planet has now been demonised for causing some part of this pandemic ????

[UbonThani]

5 minutes ago, belfast3 said:

The socialist vrs capitalist debate in this whole scenario has been interesting, I think every billionaire on the planet has now been demonised for causing some part of this pandemic ????

 

10 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Somehow, the population always manages to split in two groups: democrats vs republicans, socialists vs capitalists and so on

 

With the covid 19 two new groups are emerging:

 

supporters of the herd immunity

vs

supporters of the herd mentality

 

But unlike the other groups which are generally more or less equal in size, these two groups are not.

 

Members of the second group outnumber those of the first group by at least a factor of ten...which is very worrying for people able to think, but very reassuring for our overlords.

 

After all, as Bertrand Russell once said:

 

"People would sooner die than think, indeed this is what they do"

 

most are pro open up i speak to

3 to 1

[Tie Dye Samurai]

The reason for the lockdown is not to "protect" people from ever being infected as much as it is to protect the health systems from being over run. So saying Angela Merkel says 70% of people will be infected....this is true...the point of the lockdowns is to spread out the infections so the health system can at least attempt to keep up....and maybe so a vaccine can be developed to save some people's lives in the future that will still be alive when it is developed that would be dead otherwise.

 

Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket etc got lucky in December and January when all of the Chinese were here for high season and a massive outbreak didnt happen then....of course without testing who knows? The outbreak might have occured and people were diagnosed with pneumonia and other conditions...and the Thais? They probably just stayed home and suffered unless they were deathly ill and never got recorded.

 

At some point it does have to be asked when enough is enough and everybody takes those steps back outside and back into more of a normal life than what is happening now. It seems to me like everybody is in 1 of 4 groups.

 

1 You take all of this seriously, you stay home and ride it out and wait (those people have resources of some kind whether they have cash or people that have cash or they respect\believe in what the scientists are saying)

 

2. Those that do not care because a fake news virus never kill them and "FREEDOM" is being infringed upon (even though they are actually in a KINGDOM in another country) They also have plenty of Drain-O on ice so they can drink up to protect themselves like somebody's Fearless Leader seems to be interested in along with a flashlight up the ol' Chocolate WhizWang...)

 

3. I HATE MASKS, I WANT TO DRINK, ITS ALL ABOUT ME AND THIS IS JUST LIKE THE FLU!!!! WHEN IS DOLLHOUSE GOGO GONNA OPEN????

 

4. I need money, I have to work, I am willing to risk whatever it is because I have to pay the bills.

 

I have sympathy for #4....the rest not so much but I understand each point of view. (by the way I am in the 3rd group although I am smart enough to know this is more serious than the annual flu)

 

 

 

 

[belfast3]

10 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

 

most are pro open up i speak to

3 to 1

In Thailand? 

I'm in the UK at the moment and most people are pro-lockdown, I've been called all sorts for even suggesting an end to lockdown. Although, Scotland and Northern Ireland are using their devolved powers now to start lifting restrictions while England won't even talk about it, so I think there is a gradual shift towards opening up in some areas.

[spidermike007]

No. I don't think so. If anything a very limited lockdown for two weeks. 
 

Closing down the economy is the height of insanity. 

Many are now suggesting that by isolating people within their homes, they are eliminating any resistance to the virus, weakening immune systems, and creating a likely scenario for a second wave. I happen to think a lot of what these doctors are saying is accurate, and makes sense. Especially, if like me, you believe that the damage done by the worldwide economic lockdown, will be 200 times worse than the virus itself. 

 

Some nation are attempting to bail out their citizens. As an American I qualify for no assistance other than the paltry $1200. Will my business fail? Quite possibly. Along with millions of others. Will people starve? Yes. Potentially millions worldwide. 
 

There is so much bad information out there. In the US they have killed thousands with the ventilators. The established medical protocols for influenza, which are being blindly applied to this virus are killing a majority who die. This virus requires a level of imagination and creativity that very few doctors are equipped with. 
 

The lockdown in Thailand should end May 1st. Get the people back to work. Assuming their jobs are still there!
 

Tourism has been decimated. Millions will be out of work. Not that the authorities had a choice on that one. But, time to restart the rest of the economy. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by spidermike007

[connda]

"Are lockdowns worth their costs?"

No.  The suffering that is coming down the road due to economic ruin will far outstrip and damage caused by what will now be another seasonal flu virus.  And because it will be seasonal, those who destroyed the world's economy to begin with will continue on their roll.  Note that the people destroying the economy are not personally affected.  It's wonderful to sit in an ivory tower and issue dictates to the plebs.

[Sujo]

On 4/26/2020 at 11:38 AM, Mama Noodle said:

 

Do you have to go out to make your money or are you a pensioner or otherwise fixed income type person? 

 

I bet I know the answer. 

Im self emoloyed but sitting it out as required by law.

[Bundooman]

The problem is, that people don't learn from the mistakes of others before them.

340 years ago, The diarist, Samuel Pepys wrote about the Great Plague of London: -

Samuel Pepys diary, 1660-69

"At the end of August, he cited the bill of mortality as having recorded 6,102 victims of the plague, but feared “that the true number of the dead this week is near 10,000,” mostly because the victims among the urban poor weren’t counted. A week later, he noted the official number of 6,978 in one week, “a most dreadfull Number.”

By mid-September, all attempts to control the plague were failing. Quarantines were not being enforced, and people gathered in places like the Royal Exchange. Social distancing, in short, was not happening.

He was equally alarmed by people attending funerals in spite of official orders. Although plague victims were supposed to be interred at night, this system broke down as well, and Pepys griped that burials were taking place “in broad daylight.”

 

Even now, some people either don't want to hear or listen - or they think they know better.

Lessons of history are often ignored!

[RBOP]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:50 AM, Brunolem said:

As Angela Merkel and many others already said weeks ago, sooner or later around 70% of the population will be infected.

She must be your goddess for you to give her such acalades.  But seriously, she was only repeating what WHO said that 70% is if nothing is done (i.e no mitigation measures). So without lock downs yes, 70% of the world would get this deadly virus, hospitals will be over run and hundreds of millions will die which will cause greater and longer lasting economic disaster than any lock down. So yes, lock down worth it both morally and econically. 

[mauGR1]

5 minutes ago, RBOP said:

So yes, lock down worth it both morally and econically. 

Another one: " i have money so i don't care if millions are starving".

Nice guy.

[RBOP]

14 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Another one: " i have money so i don't care if millions are starving".

Nice guy.

 

Another one: "Anti-Vaxxer, its my body"

Nice guy.

[AgMech Cowboy]

On 4/26/2020 at 8:50 AM, Brunolem said:

The result is that East Asia, led by China, will probably come out of this global disaster on top, a situation that will only exacerbate the existing geopolitical tensions.

China has no one to sell to and many businesses are laying off workers.  It's a global shut down even if a few Countries have handled it differently (ie Sweden). Flattening the curve is about not overloading the medical services and having to decide who gets a ventilator, if needed. As you said a majority of people will get it (maybe..), but it might die off like SARS.

[UbonThani]

6 minutes ago, RBOP said:

 

Another one: "Anti-Vaxxer, its my body"

Nice guy.

That doesnt make sense.

[new2here]

I tend to agree with several others.. it’s hard to say... that and while IMHO it IS somewhat possible to estimate the monetary costs incurred due to a down, I do NOT think the same can be done when we talk about the loss of life.

 

so the “worth it?” question, to me at least, is one that’s largely unanswerable from an unemotional, factual or purely quantitative basis.

 

I think the other part for me that makes this issue hard is while we know what DID happen post-lockdown, there is no reliable way to say, for fact, what would have happened, had there been no lockdown.