Why COVID-19 Will Worsen Inequality in Thailand

Many Thais were already economically marginalized before the outbreak. Without urgent action, they will fall deeper into poverty.

By M Niaz Asadullah and Ruttiya Bhula-or

 

 

Before the COVID-19 outbreak, Thailand’s capital was the world’s most visited city. Now Bangkok’s once-bustling streets are quiet. With its struggling economy, the timing of the crisis could not be worse for Thailand. Exports have been falling since 2019 while the GDP growth rate remained one of the lowest in Southeast Asia since 2014. These trends will worsen in the coming months. The government predicts the economy will contract by 5.3 percent while the International Monetary Fund estimate is even worse, foreseeing a 6.7 percent drop in GDP. Either scenario would make Thai economy the worst affected in the ASEAN region.

 

To be sure, everyone in Thailand is being affected by the sudden economy-wide disruption — from big business houses like the Central group to petty traders and day laborers. But the hardest hit are thousands of tuk tuk drivers and street vendors in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Pattaya who are jobless following the shutdown of the country’s $60 billion tourism sector. The COVID-19 outbreak will only deepen inequality in Thai society.

 

Even before the coronavirus outbreak, Thailand remained one of the most unequal societies in Southeast Asia. As per estimates provided by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council, Thailand’s Gini coefficient – a widely used measure of inequality, with a figure closer to 1 indicating more inequality — was 0.45 in 2017. 

 

Full story: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/why-covid-19-will-worsen-inequality-in-thailand/

 

-- © Copyright The Diplomat 2020-04-30

 

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And still the baht remains indestructible coups pandemics phoney elections racketeering it's bulletproof amazing Thailand ????  

Those in power do not equate the disparity in wealth with inequality...they see themselves as saviors of the poor...handing out baht in hard times and providing low paying jobs so the masses can buy their products and services...????

Reading various articles on here and on other sites indicates a bleak foresee-able future for the peasant (serf) class.  The roll on maybe even longer.  It wasn't all that long ago slavery was no longer tolerable. "In 1905, King Rama V ended the slavery at birth and the other slaves (not at birth) will need to pay to be free at the lower money every years until 1915 (in the reign of King Rama VI), there was no slavery existed in Thailand anymore. " https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-history-of-slavery-in-Thailand?share=1

 

So, earning 300 baht a day isn't slavery but it sure qualifies as serfdom!

 

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

big business houses like the Central group to petty traders and day laborers. But the hardest hit are thousands of tuk tuk drivers and street vendors in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Pattaya who are jobless

Unfortunately, the further down the wealth scale, the harder any recession hits anyone.

And it will not just be tuk tuk drivers and street vendors in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Pattaya who find themselves jobless, there will be millions of other civilians  around the country out of work, and every province will feel it. 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Thaiwrath

The lockdowns are good for the people in power.  Easier to control poor people.

1 hour ago, sammieuk1 said:

And still the baht remains indestructible coups pandemics phoney elections racketeering it's bulletproof amazing Thailand ????  

Thailand relies mainly on two big sectors, agriculture- and industrial production and tourism. The influx of short time tourists remain undented since the strong bath don´t affect so much for a fourtnights stay. And that´s what the Thai goverement is aiming for. The strong bath becomes more of a problem for long time stayers. The export should hurt with a strong bath but since Thailand is not a democracy the ruling class can keep wages low enough for export to still keep up and. The ones paying the price for this is of course growning numbers of working poors and expats on a fixed pension. The ruling families benifits from cheap travel abroad, cheap import of luxury goods and good value for foreign investments. In countries like Thailand the ruling families always secure a quick getaway from their country if the masses becomes unruly or they get outmaneuvered by competing couping forces (Taksin).

28 minutes ago, Stygge said:

Thailand relies mainly on two big sectors, agriculture- and industrial production and tourism. The influx of short time tourists remain undented since the strong bath don´t affect so much for a fourtnights stay. And that´s what the Thai goverement is aiming for. The strong bath becomes more of a problem for long time stayers. The export should hurt with a strong bath but since Thailand is not a democracy the ruling class can keep wages low enough for export to still keep up and. The ones paying the price for this is of course growning numbers of working poors and expats on a fixed pension. The ruling families benifits from cheap travel abroad, cheap import of luxury goods and good value for foreign investments. In countries like Thailand the ruling families always secure a quick getaway from their country if the masses becomes unruly or they get outmaneuvered by competing couping forces (Taksin).

Good story - so true. One day the Thais will realise that they needed to support Taksin - but they were divided between red and yellow - now maybe they will learn who the real 'enemy' is - and it is not other Thais.

2 hours ago, TommyBlue said:

Good story - so true. One day the Thais will realise that they needed to support Taksin - but they were divided between red and yellow - now maybe they will learn who the real 'enemy' is - and it is not other Thais.

Clutching at straws here, methinks. One thing is for sure, and that is, if Thaksin HAD been in power during this supposed pandemic, he WOULD have found a way to make billions out of it ! and as far as the identity of the "real enemy" goes, I guess we must revert to the process of elimination. It cannot be the Western tourist, the British, Americans, the Europeans, or the Australians, since Thailand boomed under their patronage from the late seventies until a few years ago, when the country became inundated to the extreme with Chines and Indian tourists. These 2 countries for some strange reason received preferential treatment, while sadly injecting a minimum of cash into the Thai economy. From my observation point the rot started when these hordes of ill mannered and coarse tourists started to displace the despised but big-spending mild mannered Farang, and only one race can be held responsible for this shift, and they are Thai ????

6 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:

Clutching at straws here, methinks. One thing is for sure, and that is, if Thaksin HAD been in power during this supposed pandemic, he WOULD have found a way to make billions out of it ! and as far as the identity of the "real enemy" goes, I guess we must revert to the process of elimination. It cannot be the Western tourist, the British, Americans, the Europeans, or the Australians, since Thailand boomed under their patronage from the late seventies until a few years ago, when the country became inundated to the extreme with Chines and Indian tourists. These 2 countries for some strange reason received preferential treatment, while sadly injecting a minimum of cash into the Thai economy. From my observation point the rot started when these hordes of ill mannered and coarse tourists started to displace the despised but big-spending mild mannered Farang, and only one race can be held responsible for this shift, and they are Thai ????

Thai thinking on the Indians, and Chinese is purely economic. Those 2 populations make up more than a third of humanity while western populations are dying. Ultimately TAT believes that these huge populations will be a money maker, and they might be right, but up until now that hasn't been the case. The mild mannered farang will ultimately go back to destinations closer to Europe, or North America and eke out a great lifestyle, and enhance the economies they are in. Then in 100 years from now perhaps there will be a new demographic.

5 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

Those in power do not equate the disparity in wealth with inequality...they see themselves as saviors of the poor...handing out baht in hard times and providing low paying jobs so the masses can buy their products and services...????

Meanwhile in your country ...

Not having a go at you, but apparently this inequality thing is happening everywhere, and it's always the poor who get the hardest punches.

But this time is even worse, look what will happen to the middle class.

Me thinks that the mega rich here, those who own everything pretty much and monopolies on all the major industries will fair much better than those who don't have billions upon billions of bath in equity and assets.

A few phone calls between dearest somchai, relative, best mate in their plush mansion or penthouse office to renegotiate loans and other finances won't hurt the well off.

Damn the older I get the more socialist I'm becoming! ... leaving aside the stupid quotient for a tick haha ????

1 hour ago, Aspaltso said:

Ultimately TAT believes that these huge populations will be a money maker, and they might be right, but up until now that hasn't been the case.

For a very simple reason;
the affluent Chinese and Indians very much prefer to visit countries which have a bi-millennial or even tri-millennial history such as Greece and Italy and France to a lesser extent;

They are educated and want to see with their own eyes;
but what is there to see in Thailand at the cultural level?
The answer is easy: Nothing

The Chinese and Indians who come here on vacation are working classes, workers who can come here because in their country travel agencies have found a vein to make them come in 100% autonomy; they go to Chinese or Indian hotels, eat like at home and buy a bauble with the little they have on them.

Ever notice when recessions hit that suddenly the rich clamor for "bailouts" claiming they are too big to fail? Socialism for the rich is common, less so for the poor. But as the rich essentially buy the governments they want this is hardly surprising. Democracy for a long time has been the illusion of choice, in Thailand's case they no longer bother with the illusion.

 

As per Tropposurfer I'm also getting more socialist, but because the greed of capitalism doesn't make it a system for all to prosper any more, only for the well connected.

6 hours ago, Cali farong said:

The lockdowns are good for the people in power.  Easier to control poor people.

Only until a point...

The big revolutions started by starving ppl.

( With some conspiracy theory, one could argue the questionable worldwide economy shutdown is a possible spark, maybe a planned one)

 

Can inequality in Thailand get any worse?

3 hours ago, Rancid said:

Ever notice when recessions hit that suddenly the rich clamor for "bailouts" claiming they are too big to fail? Socialism for the rich is common, less so for the poor. But as the rich essentially buy the governments they want this is hardly surprising. Democracy for a long time has been the illusion of choice, in Thailand's case they no longer bother with the illusion.

 

As per Tropposurfer I'm also getting more socialist, but because the greed of capitalism doesn't make it a system for all to prosper any more, only for the well connected.

 

Democracy is the worst form of Governement - except for all the others.

 

48 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

Can inequality in Thailand get any worse?

yes, in all ways of slavery.

11 hours ago, webfact said:

The government predicts the economy will contract by 5.3 percent

They are drinking electric-acid Kool-aide and smoking whacky-weed if they actually believe such a low-ball figure.  As have most governments around the globe, Thailand has just thrown at least 1/3 of their population under the bus and have just enlarged their abject poverty base by magnitudes.  However those at the top will sprout Sunshine and Happiness out of all their orifices. 

6 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Meanwhile in your country ...

Not having a go at you, but apparently this inequality thing is happening everywhere, and it's always the poor who get the hardest punches.

But this time is even worse, look what will happen to the middle class.

Correct, universal reality of income inequality found in most nations.

The few in cohort with CCP could care less, just sell the country out and live elsewhere yourself.

2 hours ago, Tarteso said:

yes, in all ways of slavery.

That's just back to the basics:

http://www.thai-blogs.com/2009/03/11/last-bastion-of-the-orient/

 

19 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That's just back to the basics:

http://www.thai-blogs.com/2009/03/11/last-bastion-of-the-orient/

 

Interesting post and replies.????

Our Man in Bangkok seems to have been excessively miffed by the refusal of Thailand's richest to donate a few billion Baht to him when he asked. Now he seems set on wrecking the Thai Bev and Boon Rawd fortunes by banning alcohol sales for the rest of the year. Who knows, maybe the Gini coefficient will improve with fewer billionaires, but I doubt if their thousands of employees will thank Our Man. 

Edited April 30, 20206 yr by Guderian

10 hours ago, Rancid said:

Ever notice when recessions hit that suddenly the rich clamor for "bailouts"

The latest being the money changers, as there are no tourists here changing money.

Quote

According to Credit Suisse’s 2018 “Global Wealth Report,” the richest 1 percent in Thailand controlled almost 67 percent of the country’s wealth.

 

I can find that statistic on page 156 of the Credit Suisse data report Adobe PDF for 2018. And that is indeed the highest share of wealth held by the top 1% among the selected countries listed (though the list does not include every country in the world).

 

But oddly, that same statistic for Thailand in Credit Suisse's comparable 2019 report on page 168 of the Adobe PDF file falls to just 50.4% of the country's wealth held by the top 1%....  I'm trying to fathom, how there could be such a large change/reduction in the top 1%'s share in just a one year period of time, assuming the statistics are accurate.

 

For 2019, Thailand at 50.4% of the wealth held by the top 1% appears to be 2nd on the list of selected countries topped only by Russia with a 58.2% share of wealth belonging to the top 1%. The U.S. top 1% number appears to be 35.4% of wealth, while the UK's top 1% held 24.5% of the wealth, if I'm reading the far right column of the chart correctly.

 

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

 

20 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

And still the baht remains indestructible coups pandemics phoney elections racketeering it's bulletproof amazing Thailand ????  

Thailand can open up again but with the unusual strong baht and people now hurting financially throughout the world, I doubt they will see many foreigners running over so quickly

 

16 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

The latest being the money changers, as there are no tourists here changing money.

And very rich factory owners in Bangladesh claiming the Brit' Gov' should bail them out because of cancelled orders from the UK.

 

3 words  to fix  this 

 

 

Bring thaksin back

On 4/30/2020 at 4:42 AM, sammieuk1 said:

And still the baht remains indestructible coups pandemics phoney elections racketeering it's bulletproof amazing Thailand ????  

If a government doesn't have to worry about providing for its people, then it doesn't need to borrow money, which means the public debt ratio to GDP remains low.  So while the UK, for instance, issues bonds and the central bank prints more monopoly money, the Thai baht remains strong; it could even strengthen further.  However, there may come a time of civil unrest, or perhaps a private debt crisis could rock the economy.