The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Prakanong]

Reserves rise to US$78.2 bn

Thailand's foreign reserves rose sharply to US$78.2 billion as of Sept 14, up from $76.8 billion in the previous week, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The central bank also revealed on Friday that net forward positions in the week also increased to $12.4 billion from $12.2 billion in the week earlier.

- The Nation

looks like the crisis continues....

Northern Rock has bigger reserves than that and look where they are

Article in this weeks paper made Singaporeans think - Northern Rock has reserves 1.5 times the size of Singapores biggest bank -puts thing in perspective when a small northern English ex-building society has this!

Wonder how they compare to Thai banks?

[palm]

SET ends up 1.97%

Thai shares rallied almost 2 per cent on Friday on foreign investors' buying spree in energy stocks after the record high oil price.

well those forign investors peobebly did not hear about "investors confidence"...

Here it is again for anyone who missed it:

Thailand's exports amounting to nearly US$14 billion last month, hit a record high with an 18 per cent rise over the same period last year while a total of about US$ 97 billion was earned from exports during the last eight months this year, according to Commerce Minister Krirkkrai Jirapaet.

But, hey if I had an income of under $2000-a-month (or worse) like most of these whingers in here, I'd probably be bitter and anti-Thai too. If we took advantage of their laughable economic advice and understanding of business in general, we too could earn the income of a Western supermarket checkout cashier.

[ray23]

Interesting debates, this is far from over wonder what the final outcome will be. Time will tell my bet, no one is 100% wrong or right.

[highdiver]

Reserves rise to US$78.2 bn

Thailand's foreign reserves rose sharply to US$78.2 billion as of Sept 14, up from $76.8 billion in the previous week, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The central bank also revealed on Friday that net forward positions in the week also increased to $12.4 billion from $12.2 billion in the week earlier.

- The Nation

looks like the crisis continues....

Northern Rock has bigger reserves than that and look where they are

Article in this weeks paper made Singaporeans think - Northern Rock has reserves 1.5 times the size of Singapores biggest bank -puts thing in perspective when a small northern English ex-building society has this!

Wonder how they compare to Thai banks?

they dont realy have a reserve that large.. they have a deposit base of 24 billion pounds. actually less as last week about 3 billion were taken back by clients.

deposit base is not a reserve it is a liability that needs to be paid back...

Northern Rock’s balance sheet as of June 2007 shows that wholesale funding accounted for as much as 80 per cent of its total funding base. The wholesale markets which the bank tapped for generating funding and liquidity were both on the asset and liability sides of its balance sheet. Securitisation of mortgage receivables dominated the wholesale funding profile with the bank generating around 60 per cent of its total wholesale funding through this route. Other medium and long-term debt instruments as well as inter-bank borrowings on the liability side were the other main funding sources.

To Northern Rock’s misfortune, the wholesale markets which it was operating in were precisely the segments most affected by the crisis originating from the US sub-prime residential mortgage markets.

The entire asset-backed securities market — both mortgage backed as well as other assets — has come under a huge cloud following the blow out of these markets in the US.

For Northern Rock, therefore, the asset side of its balance sheet suddenly became more illiquid than it normally is given the very nature of its medium/long tenor residential assets portfolio. Adding to the misfortune was the fact that the inter-bank markets for wholesale lending/borrowing (the LIBOR market) also went into a tailspin with credit spreads over central banks’ reference rates rising to as much as 100-150 bps for most major currencies. The bank was thus squeezed for liquidity on both its liability sides and asset sides.

[Prakanong]

Interesting debates, this is far from over wonder what the final outcome will be. Time will tell my bet, no one is 100% wrong or right.

We need to revisit in 10, 15 and 20 years

My bet for 10 - not much change in the % of Thai's still working in the agricultural sector - still a developing country in pretty much the same state as now.

Education - not much change.

It will take China a long time too but they are moving 10 million a year from the land - how many are Thailand moving in comparison (allowing for size etc of course)

[ray23]

Palm I have a question for you, how much cash would you need to produce $3,000 a month, with a 3% increase every year, that you did nothing for?

Almost forgot you can't touch the any of the original investment ever.

Are you there yet I am, just on of the poor folks here in Thailand

Edited September 22, 2007 by ray23

[UnknownPoster]

http://fireseeker.com/firecalc.php

$1,000,000USD invested in 75% stocks 25% fixed income should safely kick out $3000/month after taxes.

[highdiver]

http://fireseeker.com/firecalc.php

$1,000,000USD invested in 75% stocks 25% fixed income should safely kick out $3000/month after taxes.

and if you do it offshore then its tax free...

1,000,000Usd can easily get a 10% anual return by a beginer investment banker.

that will be more then 8000 per month.

a solid non high risk investment of 600-700k can yield about 3000 a month.

[Mid]

Industrial confidence index rises in August

Saturday 22 September 2007 10:42:55 AM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 21 (TNA) – The industrial confidence index edged up in August, boosted the weakening of baht, consumption recovery, and clear political direction, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

FTI vice chairman Adisak Rohitasun revealed a survey made with a random sample of 525 industrial operators in 35 industry groups showed the industrial index increased to 76 in August from 72.7 in July.

snip

Mr. Adisak said the confidence in large- and medium-scale industries increased on the back of the baht depreciation, eased energy costs, and low interest rates.

However, the confidence in the small-scale industry declined in August because of raw material price volatilities.

He said key factors that reduce Thailand’s competitiveness with that of other countries such as China and Vietnam include higher raw material costs and stronger baht.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited

[Mid]

FTI chief remains upbeat about export growth

Saturday 22 September 2007 10:43:02 AM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 21 (TNA) – Thailand’s exports for this year are set to reach a target growth of 12.5 per cent because the shipments of products are likely to increase in the year-end period, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

snip

However, he was optimistic the fuel prices would begin to decline in the fourth quarter of this year. (TNA) – E005

MCOT Public Company Limited.

[ray23]

http://fireseeker.com/firecalc.php

$1,000,000USD invested in 75% stocks 25% fixed income should safely kick out $3000/month after taxes.

and if you do it offshore then its tax free...

1,000,000Usd can easily get a 10% anual return by a beginer investment banker.

that will be more then 8000 per month.

a solid non high risk investment of 600-700k can yield about 3000 a month.

Well I guess I did allright LOL

Mine is tax free

Thanks

[Mid]

Thailand revises economic data after record August exports

Saturday 22 September 2007 01:24:29 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 22 (TNA) -- Thailand's Ministry of Finance is expected to revise the country's economic data after the value of exports in August rose by a record high 17.9 per cent, according to Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn.

Dr. Chalongphob said concerned monetary policy officials must monitor the effects of recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve after the overall value of Thailand's exports rose in August to a record high of 17.9 per cent from an earlier projection of only six per cent.

Thaiand's overall economic data will be reviewed, he said.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited.

[Mid]

Industrial growth forecast cut for 2007

Saturday September 22, 2007

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has cut its industrial growth forecast for 2007 to about 6% from 6.5% due to the poor investment climate, said chairman Santi Vilassakdanont. Many industrial companies had postponed their investment plans since last year because of political uncertainties and falling consumption.

Industrial expansion this year would likely be equal to last year's 6%. Mr Santi was confident that the growth rate would exceed 5%.

Rising oil prices and volatile foreign-exchange rates have been impediments throughout this year.

Crude oil prices on Thursday reached US$81.92 per barrel from $81.01 the day before, raising pressure on the economy.

Mr Santi said soaring oil prices would not hurt the manufacturing sector directly because most factories and electrical plants depended on natural gas.

Higher oil prices would, however, raise transport costs. He also speculated that rising petrochemical costs could affect some industries.

On the plus side, Mr Santi said the baht's appreciation could help soften imported fuel costs.

''This rate is acceptable but they will suffer again if the local currency is stronger than 34 baht to a dollar,'' said Mr Santi. Industrialists no longer consider interest rates a business threat because they have remained steady, he added.

snip

bangkokpost.co

[Mid]

Exports rise, but companies face increasing challenges

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI

Saturday September 22, 2007

Despite an impressive trade surplus, Thailand's exporters face mounting challenges, says a senior trade expert. Narongchai Akrasanee, the chairman of the Export-Import Bank of Thailand said that small- and medium-sized companies and agricultural producers are especially vulnerable to market volatility and unfavourable exchange rates.

He said August's export figures were an aberration, and that strategic and competitive challenges to the country's export sector remained unchanged.

August exports are estimated to have risen 18% from the year before, on par with first-half growth rates and a sharp improvement over the 6% growth year-on-year reported in July.

Speaking yesterday at a seminar on export trends, Dr Narongchai said exports from small businesses remained weak. He blamed low import content of just 20-30%, which meant these companies reaped little benefit from the stronger baht.

He said rising domestic labour costs, international market volatility, the strong baht, and inflexible economic policies remained obstacles for Thai exporters.

snip

bangkokpost.com

aberration : A deviation from the proper or expected course.

[Carmine6]

Industrial growth forecast cut for 2007

Saturday September 22, 2007

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has cut its industrial growth forecast for 2007 to about 6% from 6.5% due to the poor investment climate, said chairman Santi Vilassakdanont. Many industrial companies had postponed their investment plans since last year because of political uncertainties and falling consumption.

Industrial expansion this year would likely be equal to last year's 6%. Mr Santi was confident that the growth rate would exceed 5%.

Rising oil prices and volatile foreign-exchange rates have been impediments throughout this year.

Crude oil prices on Thursday reached US$81.92 per barrel from $81.01 the day before, raising pressure on the economy.

Mr Santi said soaring oil prices would not hurt the manufacturing sector directly because most factories and electrical plants depended on natural gas.

Higher oil prices would, however, raise transport costs. He also speculated that rising petrochemical costs could affect some industries.

On the plus side, Mr Santi said the baht's appreciation could help soften imported fuel costs.

''This rate is acceptable but they will suffer again if the local currency is stronger than 34 baht to a dollar,'' said Mr Santi. Industrialists no longer consider interest rates a business threat because they have remained steady, he added.

snip

bangkokpost.co

September 5, there's this: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/05...ss_30047802.php

"Chavalit Setsameteekul, director general of Finance Ministry's Custom Department, said on Wednesday that the 6-per-cent growth of export in August is still an unofficial figure. The exports growth in July was recorded at 5.9 per cent, the lowest in 29 months."

From August 23 there's this about discrepancies between Customs and trade groups: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/08/23...ss_30046128.php

"The ministry found figures for some products were different from reports by industry associations. Somjin Plengkhum, deputy director-general of the Export Promotion Department, yesterday said the department was checking export reports for many products. In particular, it found exports of rice reported by the Customs Department were totally different from the association reports.

According to the Rice Exporters' Association, the export volume was 621,746 tonnes last month, up 12.9 per cent year on year. However, the Customs Department reported exports had dropped 10.9 per cent last month. "

So the final August figures come out and they're higher than the original 6% estimate by +12.9%. That's a $1.4 billion or 48.5 billion baht difference from original estimate to final. I find it hard to believe this was all an August improvement. Seems more likely that the original July figures should have been much higher than reported, and should have shown a slight increase in baht terms. It just doesn't look right to go 58 straight months with year over year monthly growth then down 4.6% one month right back to 7% the next.

The test is going to be September figures. Have to go back to 2001 to find a year when September was lower than August, and it would be expected that September 2001 was a bad month due to the 9/11 attacks which drastically impacted international transportation. For the last 10 years, September is on average 3.5% higher than August. A 3.5% increase would mean almost 500 billion baht in exports for the month. If it it closer to 475 billion baht, I think the allocation between July and August is suspect.

Edited September 22, 2007 by Carmine6

[Mid]

claybennett.com

[palm]

Palm I have a question for you, how much cash would you need to produce $3,000 a month, with a 3% increase every year, that you did nothing for?

Almost forgot you can't touch the any of the original investment ever.

Are you there yet I am, just on of the poor folks here in Thailand

My investments bring me in earnings (profits) of $3,000 every 2 days, (7 days a week).

Is this a trick question from you? And whats the relevance of your question to the Thai or world Economy?

[The Mask]

Palm I have a question for you, how much cash would you need to produce $3,000 a month, with a 3% increase every year, that you did nothing for?

Almost forgot you can't touch the any of the original investment ever.

Are you there yet I am, just on of the poor folks here in Thailand

My investments bring me in earnings (profits) of $3,000 every 2 days, (7 days a week).

Is this a trick question from you? And whats the relevance of your question to the Thai or world Economy?

This guy is obviously a troll. Anyone who makes the following statement 'Spending lots of time with great Thais; educated, considerate, honest, reliable' is nothing but an uninformed imbecile completely ignorant of reality.

[ray23]

Palm I have a question for you, how much cash would you need to produce $3,000 a month, with a 3% increase every year, that you did nothing for?

Almost forgot you can't touch the any of the original investment ever.

Are you there yet I am, just on of the poor folks here in Thailand

My investments bring me in earnings (profits) of $3,000 every 2 days, (7 days a week).

Is this a trick question from you? And whats the relevance of your question to the Thai or world Economy?

No trick question it is as relevant as your comments about people who live on less money then you do.

I hope you have a wonderful life that fits the life style that you want. I do and certainly wish the same for everyone.

[Mid]

Local sales, exports of Thai jewellery tumble this year

Saturday 22 September 2007 09:07:49 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 22 (TNA) - Sales of jewellery and ornamental products in Thailand declined by half while their exports rose only 10 per cent from last year's, a senior official said Saturday.

Pornchai Chuenchomlada, president of the Jewellery Traders' Association, said current political turbulence in Thailand had forced foreign tourists to shun the kingdom, causing sales of jewellery and ornamental products which normally stood between Bt30-40 billion annually, to drop by as much as 50 per cent.

Exports of jewellery and ornamental products this year grew only 10 per cent from last year which could earn the country about Bt139 billion.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited

[cclub75]

Regarding the figures for exports in august, and the difference between a growth of 6% and the final figure at +17,9 %, it's important to note the official explanation :

“Chavalit Sethameteekul, director-general of the Customs Department, said the re-export of two nuclear reactors - each worth about Bt10 billion - had also taken place in August. Moreover, several trade invoices were collected late in the month, so the actual export figures were significantly better than his previously announced 6-per-cent year-on-year growth, he added.“ (Nation)

"Re-export of 2 nuclear reactors" ? What are they talking about ?

Furthermore, exports in august 2006 reached 11,72 billions USD. The difference between a growth of 6 % and a growth of 17,9 % equals 1,39 billions USD (48,8 billions THB). That’s a big difference…

I think we need to wait for BOT to publish the details (end of september) to have a better view...

Edited September 24, 2007 by cclub75

[Mid]

"Re-export of 2 nuclear reactors" ? What are they talking about ?

excellent question ,

Bueller .....................................

[Carmine6]

Regarding the figures for exports in august, and the difference between a growth of 6% and the final figure at +17,9 %, it's important to note the official explanation :

“Chavalit Sethameteekul, director-general of the Customs Department, said the re-export of two nuclear reactors - each worth about Bt10 billion - had also taken place in August. Moreover, several trade invoices were collected late in the month, so the actual export figures were significantly better than his previously announced 6-per-cent year-on-year growth, he added.“ (Nation)

"Re-export of 2 nuclear reactors" ? What are they talking about ?

Furthermore, exports in august 2006 reached 11,72 billions USD. The difference between a growth of 6 % and a growth of 17,9 % equals 1,39 billions USD (48,8 billions THB). That’s a big difference…

I think we need to wait for BOT to publish the details (end of september) to have a better view...

From the article:

"I am confident that the export target of 12.5 per cent will be achievable. The country will enjoy a big trade surplus for this year," Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet said.

The ministry forecasts that exports for the rest of the year should exceed $12 billion or rise by an average of 4.7 per cent a month to ensure that the year's target will not be missed."

To make 12.5% growth, the average monthly exports have to be $12.2 billion for Sept to Dec. Say $13 billion Sept. down to $11.4 billion December. That's the 4.7% increase from last year, but a big drop from the $14 billion reported for August. In baht that will be a decrease from last year for many or most of those months since the baht strengthened by about 9% from last Sept.

It's really hard to believe that among a string of the first monthly declines in 58 months, there'd be one month that beats the prior record for exports by $870 million. I really think August figures include some exports that should have been in July.

[cclub75]

It's really hard to believe that among a string of the first monthly declines in 58 months, there'd be one month that beats the prior record for exports by $870 million. I really think August figures include some exports that should have been in July.

I share your views. And it would explain the first discrepancies regarding figures that we had in july (when the custom's datas didn't match the figures of rice exporters for instance).

Eventually, the "truth" could be 2 very average month (july and august) instead of one very bad and one very good...

[Mid]

Top bankers see stronger economy in 2008

Monday 24 September 2007 05:24:14 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 24 (TNA) – Thailand's economy next year is expected to outgrow that of this year, boosted by the upcoming general election and the forming of the new government in the post-election period, according to top bankers.

Kasikornbank president Bantoon Lamsum said the Thai economy is sluggish this year, but is likely to pick up when the general election is held and the new government is formed.

Mr. Bantoon said the local investment and consumption should improve in the post-election period.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited.

xs.to

[soundman]

It's really hard to believe that among a string of the first monthly declines in 58 months, there'd be one month that beats the prior record for exports by $870 million. I really think August figures include some exports that should have been in July.

I share your views. And it would explain the first discrepancies regarding figures that we had in july (when the custom's datas didn't match the figures of rice exporters for instance).

Eventually, the "truth" could be 2 very average month (july and august) instead of one very bad and one very good...

Maybe Thai style book-keeping leaves a lot to be desired......

[bingobongo]

hey, how about that.....

THAILAND: Garment exports fall 4% in first seven months

http://www.just-style.com/article.aspx?id=98610

Edited September 24, 2007 by bingobongo

[khall64au]

Well, my brother was interested in a condo a year ago - since his sis has lived here so long, it's gotta be safe right?- but he changed his mind (not a word from me) due to political instability.

Many others keen on various business ideas have diverted... why invest where the rules change so haphazardly!?

"Life's like a box of chocolates - you never know what ya gonna git"...

[cclub75]

Foreign investment falls 32%

Foreign direct investment in the first half of the year fell by 32%, or 81 billion baht from the same period last year, said the Bank of Thailand.

Foreign investment, in the form of equity investment and joint ventures with Thai companies in the manufacturing sector, totalled 170 billion baht in the first six months of the year, or 32% below the same period in 2006.

(Bangkok Post)

[Jai Dee]

Thailand’s competitiveness slightly drops

Director-General of the Department of Industrial Promotion, Pramote Vidtayasuk (ปราโมทย์ วิทยาสุข), says Thailand’s competitiveness has slighty dropped compared with last year due to an economic slow-down and a strengthening of the baht currency.

The director-general says the country’s competitiveness is ranked 44 from 88 and it might affect small and medium enterprises (SMEs). He therefore suggests the government to prepare short-term and long-term plans to assist SMEs and encourages them to develop new products. He also expresses his confidence that Thai SMEs have strong fundamentals and will be stronger in the future.

However, Mr Pramote says the strengthening of the baht is good for the SME industry and believes that the new government will be able to help the economy rebound and boost investor confidence.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 25 September 2007