Back to the good old days.... soon?

[CanadaSam]

I have noted four very important news reports in the past couple of weeks, and they all seem to point to a conclusion:

 

1-  The head of the Tourism Association recently stated that a half million jobs have already been lost due to this year's lack of tourists, and if this vital last quarter also loses out on mass tourism, yet another half million direct tourism related jobs will also be lost.

 

2-  The Government has proposed to increase public debt up to the maximum allowed by law (60%), due to a lack of foreign and other income sufficient to service the existing huge debt. 

 

3-  Fitch ratings have given a clear warning of Thailand's economic future due to the above issues, and also the sharp downturn in the economy, and it does not bode very well at all for the coming few years.

 

4-  It seems that the majority of Thais do not wish to restart foreign tourism due to covid and other issues, and as the Government has an obligation to follow it's people's wishes (most of the time) I can not see anyone in Government no matter how high, re-starting tourism quickly, or in an effective or practical way in the near future.

 

Well, the obvious conclusion is with the loss of 1 million tourism related jobs, and perhaps another 5 to 10 million people depending on those jobs, financially or otherwise, we just may see a huge percentage of the population extremely dissatisfied with the economic and also with the political situation as early as perhaps mid-next year?

 

Add to this the huge economic debt which is about to become reality soon, perhaps even the majority of the population may start "feeling the crunch" these ill thought out policies have brought about?

 

Add to the above that this new debt the Government has requested is supposedly being ordered mainly from local banks, and I believe they may be already having problems with their own local residential, vehicle, business loans recoveries due to covid?

 

I think we are fast heading for a total meltdown of the Thai economy (and also perhaps Government) which will equate with a massive inflation of the Baht against all major currencies as early as mid-2021, and I for one, am looking forward to the cheaper beers, food, entertainment and condos next year!

 

Your views?

[2 is 1]

Reason what nobody don't know , i think they not let BTH to come weak! And about taking more loan money, they can always make new law. This junta is famous about that one!

After they can do like US doing!

 

[Brunolem]

All the countries are in the same (sinking) boat, and Thailand is not among the worst.

 

Many of them, starting with the US, Japan and EU countries, could only dream to have a national debt at 60% of GDP, since they are all at or above 100%.

 

Thailand is not the only country heavily reliant on tourism...check Spain, Italy or France, for example.

 

The fact is that it has been already 6 months since tourism stopped, and we have yet to see any sign of economic meltdown, or population uprising (save for the students, yet for very different reasons).

 

It would seem that a large part of those who lost their jobs have reintegrated their families and villages without too much trouble.

 

One of the things that makes Thailand more resilient than most of the Western countries is that it is not a socialist nanny state, with hordes of citizens clamoring for constant handouts.

 

An unemployed citizen here weighs economically far less than in the West.

 

So as economists use to say, these days Thailand probably ranks among the less dirty shirts...

[nobodysfriend]

16 hours ago, Brunolem said:

All the countries are in the same (sinking) boat, and Thailand is not among the worst.

 

Many of them, starting with the US, Japan and EU countries, could only dream to have a national debt at 60% of GDP, since they are all at or above 100%.

 

Thailand is not the only country heavily reliant on tourism...check Spain, Italy or France, for example.

 

The fact is that it has been already 6 months since tourism stopped, and we have yet to see any sign of economic meltdown, or population uprising (save for the students, yet for very different reasons).

 

It would seem that a large part of those who lost their jobs have reintegrated their families and villages without too much trouble.

 

One of the things that makes Thailand more resilient than most of the Western countries is that it is not a socialist nanny state, with hordes of citizens clamoring for constant handouts.

 

An unemployed citizen here weighs economically far less than in the West.

 

So as economists use to say, these days Thailand probably ranks among the less dirty shirts...

Excellent post .

Even with augmenting debt , Thailand is still far better off than a lot of western countries .

I do not see Covid disappear completely anytime soon  , I do not see that mass tourism same it once was , will ever return to Thailand .

It might become a destination for the wealthy travelers only , become more expensive and exclusive for foreigners ...

I think that is what the government wants as well .

[Matzzon]

Ain´t gonna happen Mr Spock. 

[tonray]

I spoke with a taxi driver in Nonthaburi yesterday. His English was good enough and he had a few questions such as what I thought about the Thai economy under Covid. He expressed a couple of points, for his friends and family in the provinces, he stated that virtually nothing had changed. Whatever their economic prospects were before the pandemic, they are essentially the same now, albeit poor. He also expressed a desire for a new government for the same reasons. It seems that outside of the tourist industry, the rest of Thais are not affected much by the lack of tourists. His feeling was better safe than sorry and that is the thinking of most of the Thai population right now. 

[Poet]

As in many countries, the Thai government has backed itself into a corner by over-hyping the dangers and terrifying the public. Now they have a problem because the government cannot survive if their masters start losing money. The elites have been reasonably patient, seeing this as a consilidation phase, allowing them to scoop up bargains as players with fewer reserves collapse, but they are worried about a long-term contraction if business as usual does not resume soon.

Sadly, despite the economy being so dependent on money brought in by foreigners, most regular Thais don't understand how their livelihoods could be affected as they, themselves, don't work in tourism.

The whole STV nonsense was the government trying to edge their way back to a full re-opening before the Chinese New Year next February, but even that tiny first step alarmed the public. They need to keep the public mostly onside, but are also aware that the main danger to them, at this stage, is that an even more nationalistic army faction, supported by an interested party in Germany, will grab power.

The main hope for smoothing away the fears of the Thai public while resuming mass tourism would be the emergence of a credible vaccine. Doesn't need to be effective, just credible. My guess is that we are about to witness massive worldwide coordination to pretend that the vaccines are more effective than they really are.

 

[4737 Carlin]

19 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

and as the Government has an obligation to follow it's people's wishes

[Bangkok Barry]

2 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

It might become a destination for the wealthy travelers only

Those with money have far better places to go than Thailand, with far better infrastructure, far better attitude, far better road safety, far better value. Thailand has always primarily attracted cheap, and now it is no longer cheap (apart from high-end hotels) it will attract no-one at all.

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

I think we are fast heading for a total meltdown of the Thai economy (and also perhaps Government) which will equate with a massive inflation of the Baht against all major currencies as early as mid-2021, and I for one, am looking forward to the cheaper beers, food, entertainment and condos next year!

While your observations are good, the average Thai will be able to eat cheaply, they will not freeze, they will learn to get by on virtually nothing.... 

Other countries who are in a similar position have forgotten how to do it.

[Boomer6969]

Mate, right now I'd be more concerned about the resilience of my USD pension fund, than the USD/THB exchange rate.

 

The economies of most of our countries are just in as bad a shape as Thailand's. 

[The Theory]

20 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

they can do like US doing!

That was smart !! Comparing the US economy with a 3rd world. ????????

[Max69xl]

20 hours ago, Brunolem said:

All the countries are in the same (sinking) boat, and Thailand is not among the worst.

 

Many of them, starting with the US, Japan and EU countries, could only dream to have a national debt at 60% of GDP, since they are all at or above 100%.

 

Thailand is not the only country heavily reliant on tourism...check Spain, Italy or France, for example.

 

The fact is that it has been already 6 months since tourism stopped, and we have yet to see any sign of economic meltdown, or population uprising (save for the students, yet for very different reasons).

 

It would seem that a large part of those who lost their jobs have reintegrated their families and villages without too much trouble.

 

One of the things that makes Thailand more resilient than most of the Western countries is that it is not a socialist nanny state, with hordes of citizens clamoring for constant handouts.

 

An unemployed citizen here weighs economically far less than in the West.

 

So as economists use to say, these days Thailand probably ranks among the less dirty shirts...

They don't mean a 60% national debt. It's about household debts, which today are already skyhigh. It's actually up to banks how much they allow you to borrow. Eventually you have to pay it back. 

[Max69xl]

6 minutes ago, The Theory said:

That was smart !! Comparing the US economy with a 3rd world. ????????

The economy here even during a pandemic is better than in the US, and the national debt is quite low compared to other countries. They also have loads of money for infrastructure  There's a lot of money in other currencies stashed away. Don't listen to Donald Trump when it comes to the economy. 

 

[The Theory]

20 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

Add to this the huge economic debt which is about to become reality soon, perhaps even the majority of the population may start "feeling the crunch" these ill thought out policies have brought about?

I can estimate the economy straight by how many girls smile at me At 7-11. I don't need to go thru complicated economy details. Less smile good economy, more smile bad economy. ????????

[chickenslegs]

2 minutes ago, The Theory said:

I can estimate the economy straight by how many girls smile at me At 7-11. I don't need to go thru complicated economy details. Less smile good economy, more smile bad economy. ????????

Something I miss just now - can't see anyone smiling, due to face masks.

[The Theory]

10 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

The economy here even during a pandemic is better than in the US, and the national debt is quite low compared to other countries. They also have loads of money for infrastructure  There's a lot of money in other currencies stashed away. Don't listen to Donald Trump when it comes to the economy. 

 

You just look at the both governments "responsibilities" !!! I say no more. 
 

one more thing: tramp is only one president (whatever he is), not what actually the US is. Presidents come and go.

Edited October 13, 2020 by The Theory

[BritManToo]

21 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

I think we are fast heading for a total meltdown of the Thai economy (and also perhaps Government) which will equate with a massive inflation of the Baht against all major currencies as early as mid-2021, and I for one, am looking forward to the cheaper beers, food, entertainment and condos next year!

 

Your views?

My views are the rest of the world is in just as much (if not more) trouble, so the Baht probably won't move much.

But would point out in the past those with stable incomes and guaranteed jobs usually do well out of this as prices tend to fall when the majority of the population stop buying and economise.

 

Edited October 13, 2020 by BritManToo

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Other countries who are in a similar position have forgotten how to do it.

Not much choice in a UK winter.

You can't go out and hunt bears or deer.

And most people don't have enough land to cut their own wood for the fire.

[khunPer]

21 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

Well, the obvious conclusion is with the loss of 1 million tourism related jobs, and perhaps another 5 to 10 million people depending on those jobs, financially or otherwise, we just may see a huge percentage of the population extremely dissatisfied with the economic and also with the political situation as early as perhaps mid-next year?

It might not be that many unemployed workers – or that bad – as many has already taken other job or found other ways of income, but still a lot. Remember, that numerous workers in the hotel and tourist business were migrants, especially from Myanmar (Burma). Furthermore another news-article stated, that Thailand is short of workers, due to shortage among migrant workers, so other job might be available, if people are ready for a change, or temporary change, of profession...

 

User @Sheryl posted a comment, saying...

Quote

Unemployment peaked at about 2.1% in July and is now a little lower (1.9% in August). That is indeed almost double the pre-COVID levels but it still does not translate into millions of people.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/unemployment-rate

 

Depending on what age group you use to represent working age, it's about 600-800,000

 

"Back to the good old days..." will however, in my humble view, take some years, as the Worldwide Covid-lockdown has gone fairly far, and probably many people will wait travelling long distance for a while, partly due to fear, but also due to economy...????

[The Theory]

28 minutes ago, chickenslegs said:

Something I miss just now - can't see anyone smiling, due to face masks.

You know what actually you can't see, 
Thai girls are smarter than what you think. They send their message if they want to and they try different ways till they make sure that you received it.

Edited October 13, 2020 by The Theory

[DaLa]

3 hours ago, tonray said:

I spoke with a taxi driver in Nonthaburi yesterday. His English was good enough and he had a few questions such as what I thought about the Thai economy under Covid. He expressed a couple of points, for his friends and family in the provinces, he stated that virtually nothing had changed. Whatever their economic prospects were before the pandemic, they are essentially the same now, albeit poor. He also expressed a desire for a new government for the same reasons. It seems that outside of the tourist industry, the rest of Thais are not affected much by the lack of tourists. His feeling was better safe than sorry and that is the thinking of most of the Thai population right now. 

Absolutely agree with your findings. From our experience with several shops in Nonthaburi, other than at times it being quieter a few months ago, I presently can discern no difference and life goes on. I can understand those in  the tourism  business wanting a return to their 'normal' trading, but all businesses have a life expectancy. 

 

As an example in the 60's and 70's in the UK, holiday resorts were full to the brim in the spring and summer months. Then when customers were offered Spain and Europe, Cornwall, Blackpool and Skeggy emptied.  I usually return to the UK twice a year and was looking for a short term holiday let; nearly all full, so presumably the business  has turned full circle.

[natway09]

A bit of an over reaction in this post.

Yes, sad for the tourist industry employees who are in trouble & the smaller  investors in tourism infrastructure> The giants I do not care about.

Thailand could survive very well without mass tourism, only needs a bit of  a rudder change

Many tourism staff need to accept that they may need to work in a factory for up to 2 years & 

the estimate is that 2 million jobs are available.

Exports are down 10% estimate for the year but one needs to look at some figures before going into panic mode, (90% of last years exports is still a major amount.

Last month 22.6 Billion US with imports declining leaving a very good surplus.

Some good comments on here about the fact that no countries are immune to this disaster 

& there are many far worse off & will take more time to recover than Thailand.

 

[Harveyboy]

21 hours ago, Brunolem said:

All the countries are in the same (sinking) boat, and Thailand is not among the worst.

 

Many of them, starting with the US, Japan and EU countries, could only dream to have a national debt at 60% of GDP, since they are all at or above 100%.

 

Thailand is not the only country heavily reliant on tourism...check Spain, Italy or France, for example.

 

The fact is that it has been already 6 months since tourism stopped, and we have yet to see any sign of economic meltdown, or population uprising (save for the students, yet for very different reasons).

 

It would seem that a large part of those who lost their jobs have reintegrated their families and villages without too much trouble.

 

One of the things that makes Thailand more resilient than most of the Western countries is that it is not a socialist nanny state, with hordes of citizens clamoring for constant handouts.

 

An unemployed citizen here weighs economically far less than in the West.

 

So as economists use to say, these days Thailand probably ranks among the less dirty shirts...

well said ..

[4MyEgo]

4 hours ago, Poet said:

My guess is that we are about to witness massive worldwide coordination to pretend that the vaccines are more effective than they really are.

This is the only way governments will open up their borders as opposed to backing down and saying we overreacted, (lose of face here), regardless, in my opinion, voters around the world will vote current governments that are in, out, due to their overreactions and the massive debt that has piled up for the public to pay back due to their gross errors !

 

Time will tell.

Edited October 13, 2020 by 4MyEgo

[geisha]

5 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Those with money have far better places to go than Thailand, with far better infrastructure, far better attitude, far better road safety, far better value. Thailand has always primarily attracted cheap, and now it is no longer cheap (apart from high-end hotels) it will attract no-one at all.

I live in the south of France and we have a mix of international and national tourists who enjoy the 5 star plus hotels restaurants and services. The clubs and discotheques sell hundreds of bottles of champagne per night at prices that would make many people faint. ( I’m not saying this is a good thing). Between Monte Carlo and St Tropez , there you find the wealthy tourists, and after 45 yrs here I can promise you that this type of tourists do Not go to Thailand. The rich Arabs are in Dubai, Cannes, Miami, they follow the Saudi Royal family trail. When they come to Cannes in their private jets they have 300 “ entourage” people, friends , staff etc and 40 ton lorries full of suitcases ! All the others follow this families trends. This all has a knock on effect, florists, taxis ( black Mercedes) fashion shops, luxury brands and jewels, house staff, cleaners, drivers, gourmet food shops and delivery’s, restaurants, 5 star hotels , ice cream parlors, designer goods , hairdressers , all this cater to wealthy tourists. You cannot get any of this in Thailand, or in many other countries . That is why Thailand TAT is barking up the wrong tree, and killing it’s tourist trade once and for all. Yes, they will get the Chinese because they have no option, they will loose out on the normal people coming for 2 weeks sunshine and a dose of exotisme. All this rubbish they are sending out every day gets published abroad,, and is making themselves the laughing stock of the tourist trade. 

[billsmart]

The "good old days" are gone forever, not only in Thailand but everywhere.

This is the "new normal"... 

[ChipButty]

27 minutes ago, geisha said:

I live in the south of France and we have a mix of international and national tourists who enjoy the 5 star plus hotels restaurants and services. The clubs and discotheques sell hundreds of bottles of champagne per night at prices that would make many people faint. ( I’m not saying this is a good thing). Between Monte Carlo and St Tropez , there you find the wealthy tourists, and after 45 yrs here I can promise you that this type of tourists do Not go to Thailand. The rich Arabs are in Dubai, Cannes, Miami, they follow the Saudi Royal family trail. When they come to Cannes in their private jets they have 300 “ entourage” people, friends , staff etc and 40 ton lorries full of suitcases ! All the others follow this families trends. This all has a knock on effect, florists, taxis ( black Mercedes) fashion shops, luxury brands and jewels, house staff, cleaners, drivers, gourmet food shops and delivery’s, restaurants, 5 star hotels , ice cream parlors, designer goods , hairdressers , all this cater to wealthy tourists. You cannot get any of this in Thailand, or in many other countries . That is why Thailand TAT is barking up the wrong tree, and killing it’s tourist trade once and for all. Yes, they will get the Chinese because they have no option, they will loose out on the normal people coming for 2 weeks sunshine and a dose of exotisme. All this rubbish they are sending out every day gets published abroad,, and is making themselves the laughing stock of the tourist trade. 

I quiet agree with you Thailand's 5 star doesn't make 3 star in Europe, the standard of service is well below par 

[connda]

Yeah, the wheels are about the come off the buggy.  Not just Thailand, but when the debt dominos start to fall?  In the meantime the governments massage their statistics and tell the public that happy days are right around the corner.  Just borrow more money and consume.  What could do wrong.
Crime is rising.  Recently we heard that a man tried break into the house across the street that was occupied by an old woman when the rest of the family was gone - during the day!  She was screaming for the guy to leave and he kept trying to break in.  Tip of the iceberg here.  Stand-by.

[connda]

1 hour ago, geisha said:

I live in the south of France and we have a mix of international and national tourists who enjoy the 5 star plus hotels restaurants and services. The clubs and discotheques sell hundreds of bottles of champagne per night at prices that would make many people faint. ( I’m not saying this is a good thing). Between Monte Carlo and St Tropez , there you find the wealthy tourists, and after 45 yrs here I can promise you that this type of tourists do Not go to Thailand. The rich Arabs are in Dubai, Cannes, Miami, they follow the Saudi Royal family trail. When they come to Cannes in their private jets they have 300 “ entourage” people, friends , staff etc and 40 ton lorries full of suitcases ! All the others follow this families trends. This all has a knock on effect, florists, taxis ( black Mercedes) fashion shops, luxury brands and jewels, house staff, cleaners, drivers, gourmet food shops and delivery’s, restaurants, 5 star hotels , ice cream parlors, designer goods , hairdressers , all this cater to wealthy tourists. You cannot get any of this in Thailand, or in many other countries . That is why Thailand TAT is barking up the wrong tree, and killing it’s tourist trade once and for all. Yes, they will get the Chinese because they have no option, they will loose out on the normal people coming for 2 weeks sunshine and a dose of exotisme. All this rubbish they are sending out every day gets published abroad,, and is making themselves the laughing stock of the tourist trade. 

Spot on analysis.