COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[Jeffr2]

53 minutes ago, balo said:

The Spanish flu was  widespread 90 years ago , people still remember it today but they are not afraid of it because the virus disappeared a few years later. 

Same will happen to COVID-19, we will remember it but it will not affect us 10 years from now!  

A variation of the Spanish flu is still with us today

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, polpott said:

You get enough vitamin D from normal amounts of sunlight and a normal diet. Its been proved that, for most people,vitamin D supplements add nothing to you for Covid protection. Some people in the UK have been prosecuted for advertising vitamin D supplements as a prevention for Covid.

I agree that supplements are pretty useless but natural sources of vitamins are more readily absorbed, but it is known that vitamin D varies quite substantially in people and the role it plays in the immune response is not well understood and I would also add that Somtam has not been proven to be ineffective against Covid and nor has the foul smelling "old fish" sauce been discounted as a natural defence against Covid and statistically speaking just about everyone in Isaan and Lao lives on the stuff and as I mentioned it's a strange correlation between the numbers of reported deaths of Covid and Somtam and fish sauce consuming populations,but then it might just be the way they test very little,but then you have Japan which tests a lot yet have low numbers but eat lots of fish sauce and fish.Indonesia has more than 3 times the population of the UK but less than 1/3 of the number of deaths.Something fishy is going on with this virus  business.Interested to see any proof vitamin D supplements offer no protection for "most" people which seems to suggest that it does offer protection for "some" people and does the proof indicate which people do get protection from vitamin D supplements?

[onthedarkside]

A post relying on a link to an article from the Daily Mail in the UK has been removed, as the site is not considered a credible news source for ThaiVisa and posting of its content is not allowed.

 

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/daily-mail/

 

Quote

 

QUESTIONABLE SOURCE

Overall, we rate Daily Mail Right Biased and Questionable due to numerous failed fact checks and poor sourcing of information.

 

 

[balo]

6 hours ago, polpott said:

Again untrue. It caused major fear and panic. Plenty of info on the internet.

 

Still very different from today's world where everyone knows exactly whats going on on the other side of the world.   

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

New Zealand has had a highly successful lockdown. They have had a little flare up of 25 cases today which they should be able to target through tracing and get the numbers back down. If they had no lockdown who knows where they'd be. Likely a lot worse than 27 deaths. 

New Zealand is an island country,  with low population compared to crowded European cities etc, and most people supported a tough lockdown so it worked.

I guess you don't actually know what is going on in NZ except what the Ardern loving media tells you.

If they couldn't stop the virus by closing the airport I'd be very surprised, but unfortunately, despite having over 6 months to sort out quarantine they blew it with people still absconding.

 

Tracing- lol. Despite having 6 months to sort it they did nothing except an app, whatever that is, that is only for people with those expensive phones. The rest of us had to sign in on paper, and since level 1 started I'd be surprised if more than a few sign the bit of paper so, so much for the 25 cases "today".

 

most people supported a tough lockdown so it worked.

Even the minister of health didn't conform to the lockdown rules. He wasn't alone.

 

Problem NZ has now, is that there are about 5 million people that have no immunity, and soon as they have people coming in without 2 week quarantine what do you think is going to happen?

 

 

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I guess you don't actually know what is going on in NZ except what the Ardern loving media tells you.

If they couldn't stop the virus by closing the airport I'd be very surprised, but unfortunately, despite having over 6 months to sort out quarantine they blew it with people still absconding.

 

Tracing- lol. Despite having 6 months to sort it they did nothing except an app, whatever that is, that is only for people with those expensive phones. The rest of us had to sign in on paper, and since level 1 started I'd be surprised if more than a few sign the bit of paper so, so much for the 25 cases "today".

 

most people supported a tough lockdown so it worked.

Even the minister of health didn't conform to the lockdown rules. He wasn't alone.

 

Problem NZ has now, is that there are about 5 million people that have no immunity, and soon as they have people coming in without 2 week quarantine what do you think is going to happen?

 

 

Ummm....not sure why you are trying to bash NZ.

 

NZ deaths: 25

USA deaths: 224,000 and potentially rising to 400,000 by January.

 

And you bash NZ?  Wow...

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I guess you don't actually know what is going on in NZ except what the Ardern loving media tells you.

If they couldn't stop the virus by closing the airport I'd be very surprised, but unfortunately, despite having over 6 months to sort out quarantine they blew it with people still absconding.

 

Tracing- lol. Despite having 6 months to sort it they did nothing except an app, whatever that is, that is only for people with those expensive phones. The rest of us had to sign in on paper, and since level 1 started I'd be surprised if more than a few sign the bit of paper so, so much for the 25 cases "today".

 

most people supported a tough lockdown so it worked.

Even the minister of health didn't conform to the lockdown rules. He wasn't alone.

 

Problem NZ has now, is that there are about 5 million people that have no immunity, and soon as they have people coming in without 2 week quarantine what do you think is going to happen?

 

 

I risk getting boring with quoting New Zealand figures but as Jeffr2 pointed out..it is what it is. Being from Australia I am not up to date with every step in what happened, but to point out that a small number including the health minister, did the wrong thing, is not to take away from the fact that your Prime Minister showed strong leadership, and got the job done. The election results last week show the degree of her popularity. 

If you are suggesting herd immunity was a better outcome that shows a disregard for the lives of other New Zealanders.

You are open to most of  Australia now, which has few cases, so it shouldn't be an issue and I'm sure she'll open up to other countries when the time is right. Keeping your people safe, until a vaccine, is something New Zealanders and Australians can be proud of.

[Jeffr2]

8 hours ago, PatrickC said:

I heard on BBC News that if Covid had killed as bigger portion of the population as Spanish flu now, 230 million would be dead, not 1 million.

 

How are lockdowns possibly justified again?

 

This is a serious illness but we're not talking end of species - not even close. Time to move on, open everything up, and what will be will be.

 

We need to ignore the hysteria on twitter.

Read this and become educated.  You're totally missing the point.  But yes, 1 million dead now is not a big deal.  I'm sure the relatives of those who've passed would agree with you.????

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21523259/wisconsin-covid-coronavirus-cases-tony-evers-trump-democrats-republicans?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sentences 102320&utm_content=Sentences 102320+CID_45516406c804bf721d7603de546766c9&utm_source=cm_email&utm_term=How pandemic fatigue and polarization led to Wisconsins massive Covid-19 outbreak

 

How pandemic fatigue and polarization led to Wisconsin’s massive Covid-19 outbreak

Wisconsin’s coronavirus cases have skyrocketed. Here’s why.

[Jeffr2]

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-virus-outbreak-connecticut-south-dakota-birthdays-dc26340a9b1311ad81e0f8b99a7a6dbd

 

Some hospitals in crisis as US nears high for COVID-19 cases

[Jeffr2]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/business/economy/economy-coronavirus-lockdown-iowa.html

 

 

Iowa Never Locked Down. Its Economy Is Struggling Anyway.

President Trump has blamed Democratic officials’ rules for impeding the recovery. But even where restrictions are few, business is far from normal.

 

[placnx]

11 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/business/economy/economy-coronavirus-lockdown-iowa.html

 

 

Iowa Never Locked Down. Its Economy Is Struggling Anyway.

President Trump has blamed Democratic officials’ rules for impeding the recovery. But even where restrictions are few, business is far from normal.

 

Even if there is no lockdown, if the population does not feel safe when in public places, then the economy will suffer anyway. So the impression of competence in government response is crucial.

[Jeffr2]

12 hours ago, placnx said:

Even if there is no lockdown, if the population does not feel safe when in public places, then the economy will suffer anyway. So the impression of competence in government response is crucial.

Exactly. That's what many covid19 deniers harp on about.  Lockdowns are just one part of the solution.  Not the only one.  Until the virus is under control, things won't get back to normal.

 

[sucit]

On 10/16/2020 at 5:07 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Not like a regular flu at all. They want masks and distancing to be permanent. None of that happened for regular flu or any other diseases, far as I know.

I'm happy to go back to life as pre corona and take my chances, even though I'm over 70 and not particularly healthy.

You're right, it is not like the flu. The flu most people get and they actually get sick and feel bad. 

[Jeffr2]

26 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

Lockdown supporters are generally liberal middle classes who can work from home and could not care less about the working classes who are the ones truly suffering from lockdowns. It is shameful.

Lockdown supporters are generally medical experts and those who accept science.  Those against it are covid deniers.

[Bluetongue]

On 10/23/2020 at 1:00 PM, Fat is a type of crazy said:

I risk getting boring with quoting New Zealand figures but as Jeffr2 pointed out..it is what it is. Being from Australia I am not up to date with every step in what happened, but to point out that a small number including the health minister, did the wrong thing, is not to take away from the fact that your Prime Minister showed strong leadership, and got the job done. The election results last week show the degree of her popularity. 

If you are suggesting herd immunity was a better outcome that shows a disregard for the lives of other New Zealanders.

You are open to most of  Australia now, which has few cases, so it shouldn't be an issue and I'm sure she'll open up to other countries when the time is right. Keeping your people safe, until a vaccine, is something New Zealanders and Australians can be proud of.

Sorry NZ is not open to any of Australia and has not been at any stage since March. Ardern has stated that there is no intention to open the border before a vaccine. A two travel bubble has been mooted, at the moment it is some one way, NZ can come to some Australian states. The problem for NZ is her stated long term strategy is elimination of the virus, Australia has opted for suppression, supposedly. Even though it might look the same, Australia says it will live with a few cases and suppress every outbreak. Australian state Premiers might not be totally on board with this, and thats a problem. NZ cant open the travel bubble and risk it according to Ardern. In Melbourne today was the long awaited day to reduce restrictions and open businesses. They had reached the long stated target of 5 cases per day average. No, the Premier says, still too dangerous. The political flak this week is going to be intense and so it should be. 

[Jeffr2]

10 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Sorry NZ is not open to any of Australia and has not been at any stage since March. Ardern has stated that there is no intention to open the border before a vaccine. A two travel bubble has been mooted, at the moment it is some one way, NZ can come to some Australian states. The problem for NZ is her stated long term strategy is elimination of the virus, Australia has opted for suppression, supposedly. Even though it might look the same, Australia says it will live with a few cases and suppress every outbreak. Australian state Premiers might not be totally on board with this, and thats a problem. NZ cant open the travel bubble and risk it according to Ardern. In Melbourne today was the long awaited day to reduce restrictions and open businesses. They had reached the long stated target of 5 cases per day average. No, the Premier says, still too dangerous. The political flak this week is going to be intense and so it should be. 

And yet Arden won in a landslide.  So obviously, the majority of the population there are for her.

 

Trump seems to be losing in a landslide.  And a majority don't think he's done well with regards to the virus.  I mean, he couldn't even protect himself, his family and his inner circle.  How's he going to protect us?

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 hour ago, PatrickC said:

 

NZ is highly subjective and depends how you measure success. 

 

I heard today that Andrews is extending lockdown. Lucky you. Like a dog chasing its tail, Victoria's lockdown might never end.

 

I guess you are also in a white collar job and are working from home, so you can support the lockdown easily.

 

It is usually middle class work from home types who support lockdowns, since they're not losing their jobs. Just let the working classes suffer.

I agreed with the lockdown but I agree they are now taking it too far. Having 6 cases in the northern suburbs and shutting down the whole of Melbourne's 5 million population is now over the top.  

I do have a government job working from home so it's fine for me.

My thai ex has a business and has not been able to work for weeks.

750 cases a day means a lockdown is smart but for 6 it's getting ridiculous. The state of New South Wales is open with similar cases. 

Before we all get too excited though he is just talking about delaying it for a couple of days until a large amount of test results come back. My guess is he'll announce in a few days that retail and other businesses open next Monday.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

1 hour ago, Bluetongue said:

Sorry NZ is not open to any of Australia and has not been at any stage since March. Ardern has stated that there is no intention to open the border before a vaccine. A two travel bubble has been mooted, at the moment it is some one way, NZ can come to some Australian states. The problem for NZ is her stated long term strategy is elimination of the virus, Australia has opted for suppression, supposedly. Even though it might look the same, Australia says it will live with a few cases and suppress every outbreak. Australian state Premiers might not be totally on board with this, and thats a problem. NZ cant open the travel bubble and risk it according to Ardern. In Melbourne today was the long awaited day to reduce restrictions and open businesses. They had reached the long stated target of 5 cases per day average. No, the Premier says, still too dangerous. The political flak this week is going to be intense and so it should be. 

I didn't realise the travel was one way so I stand corrected. I am in Melbourne so I ain't going anywhere. As I say in my other comments I think New Zealand and Australia have done a top job but this last bit of closedown in Victoria is over the top. I think local opinion will be not be for the continued lockdown.

Edited October 25, 2020 by Fat is a type of crazy

[simon43]

[quote]

... in Luang Prabang where I understand you are, it's mostly small family owned businesses and thus no need to wear a mask. Not sure what the Chinese supermarket does but probably not enforcing it.

[/quote]

 

You don't wear a mask just because it is the rule!  Now it is no longer a rule to wear a mask in shops/close contact etc.  But even before Covid-19, many people (including myself) always wore a mask in the shops - it is a common courtesy so as to minimise the risk of catching or passing on any airborne pathogen.  Most local people that I see in the supermarket and fresh market wear a mask.  I do likewise and think nothing of it.

 

Laos is not Covid-free, but the only few current cases are from those entering from other countries - there is no 'home' infections.

[simon43]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Lockdown supporters are generally medical experts and those who accept science.  Those against it are covid deniers.

Agreed - I'm a scientist and teach (among many science topics), about human pathogens to higher-level students.  I recognise the medical benefit of lockdowns to minimise the spread of a virus.  But there is also the huge economic and social fallout to consider.  I'm glad I'm not a politician...

[cmarshall]

9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Exactly. That's what many covid19 deniers harp on about.  Lockdowns are just one part of the solution.  Not the only one.  Until the virus is under control, things won't get back to normal.

 

A lockdown is the result of a failure of the government to implement public health measures quickly and effectively.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever locked down, but that's because they have been surveiling China for emerging pathogens for years with a ready plan to suppress any outbreak.  And that's what they did by putting in testing, isolation, and contact tracing.  If you miss the window of opportunity to put these best practices into effect, then you'll have to do a lockdown to get the counts down enough to follow best practices again.  

 

Those who oppose a lockdown are insisting on yet more devastating spread of disease and decline of the economy.

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, Fat is a type of crazy said:

Before we all get too excited though he is just talking about delaying it for a couple of days until a large amount of test results come back. My guess is he'll announce in a few days that retail and other businesses open next Monday.

So if they get a few positive tests they will remain in lockdown and if the rolling average rises above 5 cases it's back into lockdown for a few more months,such a depressing outlook for Victoria.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

44 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So if they get a few positive tests they will remain in lockdown and if the rolling average rises above 5 cases it's back into lockdown for a few more months,such a depressing outlook for Victoria.

Yeah you can tell in the news tonight people have really had enough. They got a whole lot of test results late in the day. No cases. I'll bet that it will be open in a couple of days. 

Still say one over cautious premier doesn't mean lockdowns don't work. He stuffed up the quarantine too.

The other states got it right. I would be seriously p*ssed off tonight if I had a shop or other closed business.

Hope your cows are doing good. 

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, cmarshall said:

A lockdown is the result of a failure of the government to implement public health measures quickly and effectively.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever locked down, but that's because they have been surveiling China for emerging pathogens for years with a ready plan to suppress any outbreak.  And that's what they did by putting in testing, isolation, and contact tracing.  If you miss the window of opportunity to put these best practices into effect, then you'll have to do a lockdown to get the counts down enough to follow best practices again.  

 

Those who oppose a lockdown are insisting on yet more devastating spread of disease and decline of the economy.

S. Korea did a lock down.  As you say, it's only one part of the process.  Spot on!!!!

 

I think Taiwan did a small lockdown of 1% of their population.  Both are gold standards as to handle the virus.  The US is the worst example.

 

https://www.axios.com/south-korea-covid-coronavirus-lockdown-30884b07-32d6-4ee6-b809-5f64498fab75.html

[cmarshall]

3 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

S. Korea did a lock down.  As you say, it's only one part of the process.  Spot on!!!!

 

I think Taiwan did a small lockdown of 1% of their population.  Both are gold standards as to handle the virus.  The US is the worst example.

 

https://www.axios.com/south-korea-covid-coronavirus-lockdown-30884b07-32d6-4ee6-b809-5f64498fab75.html

Depends on what you mean by a lockdown.  There was no lockdown of businesses in S. Korea.  Schools did close while universities went to online learning.  There was no national curfew.  Some areas that had large outbreaks like Daegu were locked down.  The Bank of Korea's governor estimates that the GDP for the year will be -1.3%, which is quite low by comparison with other rich countries.  By comparison with Lombardy or New York City in April, S. Korea hardly had a lockdown.  Same goes for Taiwan.  

 

S. Korea and Taiwan have competent governments that learned from SARS and MERS how to manage an epidemic.  Every one of the Western countries could have learned the same lesson, but didn't.  

Edited October 25, 2020 by cmarshall

[Bluetongue]

Say for instance Biden wins and Trump stands aside so on 21 January Biden is there and the virus remains rampant in the middle of winter. What kind of lockdown would they have to endure? If Melbourne has had 3 to 4 months of very draconian restrictions to control a few hundred cases what would USA have to be. I dont know I'm asking. Surely it would have to be longer. Would the people accept that? Some might but I get the feeling with the current events it might be a bigger disaster than that just endured? Even in Europe now one gets the feeling that the hastily cobbled together patchwork lockdowns aren't going to stop it.

 

I think they are just trying to slow it down a bit while they go for herd immunity. I dont want to argue about that, just what I think.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Bluetongue

[sucit]

23 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Lockdown supporters are generally medical experts and those who accept science.  Those against it are covid deniers.

You are joking, right?

 

Scientific lockdown supporters are part of the herd. They are deathly afraid of letting people know what they actually think for fear of being overrun by the insanity mob. 

[cormanr7]

There seems to be a misconception that with some potential Covid vaccines on the horizon, all problems will be solved and we will be back 'at normal' in no time. Say that a vaccine has an efficacy of 66% (note that the FDA in the US only requires 50% vs a placebo group for potential approval). That would not seem too bad (even so, of those 300 passengers waving there immune passports while waiting for their flight, a 100 would be susceptible to covid infection and some might actually have it without displaying symptoms). BUT, there is a second major factor, that is the antivaxxers clique. Suppose only 50% wants to be vaccinated (a figure commonly quoted for the US as an example) then the actual proportion of the total population protected from COVID infection is only 33%. Maybe a little more as some of the other 66% may already have had it or have natural defenses.

This is separate from other complications such as most vaccines having to be administered twice with a three-to-four week interval and the possibility that a vaccine might only be  effective for a number of months (and it is clear now that some people do get re-infected whereas originally this was attributed to tests detecting 'dead' virus of parts thereof that continued to be shedded over long periods).

All this has nothing to do with scare mongering but merely suggests that there is no easy way out and Covid-19 will not magically disappear. Nevertheless, life has to go on and I do not envy those that have to make critical decisions.

[KC 71]

13 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Depends on what you mean by a lockdown.  There was no lockdown of businesses in S. Korea.  Schools did close while universities went to online learning.  There was no national curfew.  Some areas that had large outbreaks like Daegu were locked down.  The Bank of Korea's governor estimates that the GDP for the year will be -1.3%, which is quite low by comparison with other rich countries.  By comparison with Lombardy or New York City in April, S. Korea hardly had a lockdown.  Same goes for Taiwan.  

 

S. Korea and Taiwan have competent governments that learned from SARS and MERS how to manage an epidemic.  Every one of the Western countries could have learned the same lesson, but didn't.  

13 people have  just died from a flue vaccine over there .

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Breaking news: Shops pubs etc are  opening up in Melbourne on Wednesday. Further relaxations on the 8th of November. No new cases. Feels good. Time to open up.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Fat is a type of crazy