What are the chances of U.S. expats coming by July 1st,2021?

[thailen]

The new Pfizer vaccine, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, could be available for mass(at least for senior citizens) availability by April,2021.  With proof, what are my chances of coming here, with or without the need for tests, quarantine, insurance and other documents?

[Jingthing]

You're just asking people to guess so my guess is probably not.

[tonray]

As long as Covid cases in the US and Europe keep rising out of control...Thailand is not 'likely' to relax restrictions for awhile. 

[mtls2005]

[Captain Monday]

Entering Thailand July 2021 without similar restrictions to today is unrealistic coming from USA.

Trump promised the military could distribute 200,000 doses a day. 

Let's say that is not an exaggeration, we have 328 million. Even if half refuse it do the math.

https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/09/17/u-s-public-now-divided-over-whether-to-get-covid-19-vaccine/

Pfizers is a two shot vaccine. How many days between injections, and how long is it good for?

50 percent of Americans won't take the vaccine, many others who would accept it won't bother.

We are a long way from seeing the end of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

The Pfizer announcement is only a PR release of some very preliminary results of their vaccine trials. None of the results have been peer-reviewed and there is some question as to the mixture of subjects used for the trial. Even if all goes well, I believe Pfizer has said they could manufacture on the order of a few tens of millions of doses of the virus next year (divide by 2 because it's a two-dose vaccine), and these would most likely be given to healthcare workers, "frontline" workers, and possibly teachers and military personnel. I don't think retirees lounging around at home or wanting to take trips to Thailand are very high on their list for the first round of the vaccine.

Edited November 11, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[UB40]

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1191656-single-entry-tourist-visa-to-thailand-now-requires-foreigners-to-show-funds-of-500k-thb/?tab=comments#comment-15991828

[mike787]

Come on in...the ladies are waiting.

[phantomfiddler]

1 hour ago, UB40 said:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1191656-single-entry-tourist-visa-to-thailand-now-requires-foreigners-to-show-funds-of-500k-thb/?tab=comments#comment-15991828

They just keep making it harder and harder, comical if it wasn't so sad ????  

[mrfill]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The Pfizer announcement is only a PR release of some very preliminary results of their vaccine trials. None of the results have been peer-reviewed and there is some question as to the mixture of subjects used for the trial. Even if all goes well, I believe Pfizer has said they could manufacture on the order of a few tens of millions of doses of the virus next year (divide by 2 because it's a two-dose vaccine), and these would most likely be given to healthcare workers, "frontline" workers, and possibly teachers and military personnel. I don't think retirees lounging around at home or wanting to take trips to Thailand are very high on their list for the first round of the vaccine.

There's a bit of a snag with the Pfizer vaccine in that it has to be stored at -70c, which would make distribution somewhat challenging as fridges operating at that temperature are not common.

[darrendsd]

3 hours ago, phantomfiddler said:

They just keep making it harder and harder, comical if it wasn't so sad ????  

 

How is not letting tourists in to letting them in making it harder?

 

Yes it's not ideal but it's a start isn't it?

 

It will be a long road back for tourism in Thailand - they have to start somewhere and they are doing that

[Upnotover]

You have a 28% chance.

[Sheryl]

It is possible that Thailand will eventually start to let people in without quarantine if they have proof of vaccination (and, probably, also a negative antigen test - vaccination is not 100%).

 

But not certain. My best guess is that they eventually will but no telling when.

 

The other unknown is whether they will continue to impose stringent financial requirements for tourists, as is presently being done and which has nothing logically to do with COVID.

[Pattaya Spotter]

2 hours ago, mrfill said:

There's a bit of a snag with the Pfizer vaccine in that it has to be stored at -70c, which would make distribution somewhat challenging as fridges operating at that temperature are not common.

Yes, it's one of the vaccines that requires near zero temperatures both during transit and during storage at hospitals and clinics. However, Pfizer has said that further testing and development may show the vaccine retains its effectiveness when stored at more "normal" freezer temperatures. Time will tell.

[TC17]

I feel like Thailand is slipping away.   I am planning on a September return.  We will see ...

[moontang]

I'll say 50% chance.

[khunPer]

14 hours ago, thailen said:

With proof, what are my chances of coming here, with or without the need for tests, quarantine, insurance and other documents?

Too long time ahead to predict anything right now, the vaccine you mention might face distribution problems, however other vaccines are underway.

 

And a new mutation of Covid-19 could show up between now and July 2021, from for example mink – it actually already has, and also spread to humans – for which the vaccines might not work against. 15.000 minks have so far died from Covid-19 in USA, do they check for new Covid-19 clusters among minks? To many unknown factors.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 hours ago, mrfill said:

There's a bit of a snag with the Pfizer vaccine in that it has to be stored at -70c, which would make distribution somewhat challenging as fridges operating at that temperature are not common.

 

On that point:

 

Quote

 

Unlike regular vaccines, Pfizer’s messenger RNA-based shot must be stored at an ultra-cool temperature of around -70 degrees celsius (-94 degrees Fahrenheit) and injected within five days to avoid it from going bad.

To avail PFE's shot, countries will need to build from scratch the deep-freeze production, storage and transportation networks needed for the vaccine to survive which will require massive investment.

...

Even for rich countries that have pre-ordered doses, including Japan, the U.S. and the U.K., delivering Pfizer’s vaccine will involve considerable hurdles as long as trucks break down, electricity cuts out, essential workers get sick and ice melts.

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3634835-logistical-challenges-can-make-pfizer-biontech-covidminus-19-vaccine-shot-for-rich-bloomberg

[moontang]

Just put ice in it..everyone does it.

[shdmn]

I am optimistic for things opening up by July.  Probably not before then though.   Most seem to be saying that a vaccine won't be widely available until at least spring and Thailand does not seem to be in any hurry to open things up, even when there is a vaccine.

Edited November 11, 2020 by shdmn

[nickmondo]

21 hours ago, thailen said:

The new Pfizer vaccine, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, could be available for mass(at least for senior citizens) availability by April,2021.  With proof, what are my chances of coming here, with or without the need for tests, quarantine, insurance and other documents?

zero

[jacko45k]

Let me rub my crystal balls.......... chances are rising!

[hotchilli]

22 hours ago, thailen said:

The new Pfizer vaccine, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, could be available for mass(at least for senior citizens) availability by April,2021.  With proof, what are my chances of coming here, with or without the need for tests, quarantine, insurance and other documents?

Virtually zero

[JTXR]

Chances are very slim, I think.  I won't leave Thailand unless I have to for some emergency, mostly because I'm assuming that tests, quarantine, insurance, COE, etc. will be required to get back in at least through all of 2021 if not longer.

[ubonjoe]

A post bringing politics into the discussion has been removed.

[Bkktodd]

9 hours ago, khunPer said:

Too long time ahead to predict anything right now, the vaccine you mention might face distribution problems, however other vaccines are underway.

 

And a new mutation of Covid-19 could show up between now and July 2021, from for example mink – it actually already has, and also spread to humans – for which the vaccines might not work against. 15.000 minks have so far died from Covid-19 in USA, do they check for new Covid-19 clusters among minks? To many unknown factors.

The mink mutation you reference is in Denmark not the USA.  All were killed to stop a spread.    Asking thaivisa forum contributors for any possible good news is why mates of mine WONT read these.  

[Hanuman2547]

For me personally, I don't plan on returning to Thailand before then.  Not sure when the vaccine will be ready for mass distribution.  I'm not clamoring to be the first to take it either.  I'd rather wait and see what happens first and then I'll take it providing everything has been fine with it and no adverse reactions.  

 

I also wouldn't be going in July.  It's the middle of the rainy season and it's summer in the US when the weather is great where I live.  For me, November at the earliest.  

[khunPer]

3 hours ago, Bkktodd said:

The mink mutation you reference is in Denmark not the USA.  All were killed to stop a spread.    Asking thaivisa forum contributors for any possible good news is why mates of mine WONT read these.  

What do you want to hear, positive dreams, or answers based on facts. I'm normally extremely positive in my views,  especially about Thailand, but here you ask about long time predictions with numerous unknown factors.

 

I know very well about the mink-situation – I'm Danish – and far from all minks have been killed, as it showed to be against the Danish constitution. The government is right now in a deep crisis, as it has broken the fundamental law, i.e. the constitution; a minister, perhaps the whole government, might need to resign. Furthermore the government are now backing out, and will allowthe breeding animals to survive, not to kill the mink-industri in favor of China; Denmark is the World's largest supplier of mink.

 

Covid-19 among minks, are besides Denmark and USA, also found in three other European countries. My point was, and is, that when Covid-19 can mutate in Danish minks and spread to humans – there are five different mutations, named Cluster-1 to cluster-5, the latter being the immune resistant one (so far), cluster-2 to cluster-4 has not been tested fully – then it might mutate in other areas' minks as well. My question was: Have the 15.000 so far Covid-19-dead US minks been tested for Covid-19 mutations?

????

[Trujillo]

 Bloomberg reported on this "complex and costly" private network that companies are building to help distribute vaccines like Pfizer's mRNA vaccine (a technology that's also being used by another leading candidate, Moderna), that is, once it has finally been approved.

Countries that don't already have these networks will need to build them from scratch if they wish to substantially reduce the supply bottleneck, which would be "a herculean task".

That means that countries will need to build from scratch the deep-freeze production, storage and transportation networks needed for the vaccine to survive. This massive investment and coordination required all but guarantees that only rich nations will manage to dial up access, with the wealthy first in line to receive their doses.

"Its production is costly, its component is unstable, it also requires cold-chain transportation and has a short shelf life," said Ding Sheng, director of the Beijing-based Global Health Drug Discovery Institute, which has received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Countries like India are facing particular difficulties given that shipping regular consumer goods remains a difficult, even treacherous, process across much of the country's hinterland. Health-care experts in the country have already dismissed sub-zero storage as completely unworkable - "just forget it, one said."

Many working in the country’s public health and the pharmaceutical industry have already voiced concern that India lacks the necessary capacity and capability to deliver a vaccine across its vast rural hinterland and population of over 1.3 billion people at the breakneck speed now expected.

“Most of these vaccines need minus 70 degrees, which we just can’t do in India, just forget it,” said T. Sundararaman, a New Delhi-based global coordinator of the People’s Health Movement, an organization that brings together local activists, academics and civil society groups working on public health.

“Our current cold chains are not able to cope with some districts’ need for measles vaccines, and that’s only for children below the age of 3,” he said. “That’s a really trivial number of people compared to the numbers that will need a Covid-19 vaccine."

 

Vaccine-rich-pfizers-covid-19-jab-almost-impossible-distribute-poorer-countries

 

Sound like something in Thailand's wheelhouse? No, not to me, either.